Wrestlenomics

Coming off news that early estimates for All Elite Wrestling's Double or Nothing pay-per-view may have been among AEW's most-bought PPVs yet, we revisit the strategy behind the WWE Network, as told by former WWE co-president Michelle Wilson.

Plus Brandon Thurston talks about the Wrestlenomics formula and talks your questions!

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How safe is it to continue running empty arena wrestling events in the United States and Florida compared to Japan or Tokyo? Brandon Thurston looks at the data around testing, cases, and deaths.

What do Google searches tell us about the title reigns of WWE champions and the popularity of WWE from 2004 to the present?

The latest on TV viewership, including the success of the Dark Side of the Ring series.

For more information visit http://www.wrestlenomics.com

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The latest on the pro-wrestling business during the coronavirus pandemic, discussed by Brandon Thurston.

*NJPW President Harold Meij gave a statement about the state of his company.

*An update on the ongoing lawsuit between former XFL CEO Oliver Luck and Vince McMahon.

*What regular top stars are left for WWE?

*Your questions!

*And finally why it’s clearer now the WWE Network has made life more difficult for the company and its competitors.

Visit us at wrestlenomics.com

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It looks like WWE's going to be even more profitable than thought before, according to Brandon Thurston. Also, what's "friction"? What are breakpoints, and why are they important to assessing wrestling's popularity in the midst of the coronavirus crisis? Plus, everyone's favorite topic: is wrestling real or fake? And what are the economic consequences of the wrestling audience's perception thereof?

Read Brandon's written analysis at wrestlenomics.com

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Brandon Thurston talks over the effect empty building wrestling shows are having TV viewership and whether viewers will bounce back whenever programs can return to arenas.

We consider the possibility of WWE selling to a major media company, executive stock sales and the performance of major wrestling companies' YouTube channels.

Follow Wrestlenomics at http://twitter.com/wrestlenomics

Visit http://wrestlenomics.com for written analysis of wrestling business.

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Wrestling business analyst Brandon Thurston breaks down the WWE Q1 2020 earnings call in a level of granularity as only he can.

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Brandon Thurston reviews the recent events that led up to WWE's decision to cut costs and lay off or furlough workers, as well as the recent closure and bankruptcy of Vince McMahon's XFL.

May 2018: WWE discloses it received a minority stake in Alpha Entertainment related to XFL IP transaction with Alpha.

https://otp.tools.investis.com/clients/us/wwe/SEC/sec-show.aspx?FilingId=12727687&Cik=0001091907&Type=PDF&hasPdf=1

Dec 2017, Nov 2018, Mar 2019: Vince McMahon sells a total of $379.7 million in WWE shares, most if not all, to fund the XFL/Alpha Entertainment

https://twitter.com/wrestlenomics/status/1250129065052422147

Feb 6: Vince McMahon on Q4 earnings call takes XFL questions

https://twitter.com/BrandonThurston/status/1249820096220073985 (AUDIO)

March 10: Oklahoma Firefighters Pension and Retirement System drops lawsuit against WWE

https://twitter.com/wrestlenomics/status/1245030531298967552

March 11: NBA suspends season

March 12: Smackdown proceeds in the PC with no audience

March 12: XFL suspends 2020 regular season

March 12: WWE statement on potential impact of COVID19

https://corporate.wwe.com/investors/news/press-releases/2020/03-12-2020-223008742

-WWE withdraws its earlier Q1 guidance, due to COVID19.

-WWE acknowledges it may be forced to cancel events, Wrestlemania not mentioned specifically.

-WWE doesn’t estimate the potential impact at this time.

-WWE has cash & debt capacity of $500 million.

"The company had guided 2020 adjusted OIBDA of $250M-$300M and contractual revenue growth of about $185M. For Q1, it had forecast OIBDA of $60M-$65M (a fivefold year-over-year increase)."

March 16: Trump issues stay-home guidelines. “Some say July or August”.

March 16: WWE announces Wrestlemania will not take place in Tampa, will instead take place at the PC.

March 24: Vince McMahon puts 3.5 million of his WWE shares into prepaid forward contract with Morgan Stanley

https://otp.tools.investis.com/clients/us/wwe/SEC/sec-show.aspx?FilingId=14033656&Cik=0001091907&Type=PDF&hasPdf=1

March 26: Wrestlemania taping concludes. News breaks Roman Reigns pulls out of Wrestlemania match with Goldberg.

March 31: WWE and Sony finalize renewed India TV deal

https://corporate.wwe.com/investors/news/press-releases/2020/03-31-2020-080031784

March 31: Fox and FITE announce they’ll offer WWE as a PPV. Fox to broadcast 22 hours of WWE library.

April 1: Florida Governor Ron DeSantis issues state-wide stay-at-home order

https://twitter.com/WFLA/status/1245400616253472771 (AUDIO)

April 4: Trump holds call with leaders of sports organizations, including Vince McMahon and Dana White.

April 5: WWE sends internal memo from Paul Levesque that a WWE employee had tested positive for COVID-19

Fightful reported and confirmed with WWE on April 11

April 7: WWE announces its Q1 earnings report and conference call will be April 23 after market close.

April 9: WWE announces it adjourns annual meeting due to COVID19.

April 9: America First Action PAC Announces $26.6M Investment in Battleground States

$18.5 million for Florida: $7.2mm in Tampa, $11.3mm in Orlando markets.

https://www.a1apac.org/news/america-first-action-pac-announces-26.6m-investment-in-battleground-states/

April 9: Gov. DeSantis amends stay-home order

Pro sports were added to a list of essential businesses allowed to stay open in an April 9 memorandum to include “employees at a professional sports and media production with a national audience … only if the location is closed to the general public.”

fox6now.com/2020/04/14/florida-stay-at-home-order-amended-pro-wrestling-wwe-deemed-essential/

April 10: XFL lays off most employees, suspends operations.

April 10: The Revival are released from WWE.

April 10: Vince McMahon decides to return to taping Raw, Smackdown and NXT live every week going forward, beginning with Smackdown on this night.

Meltzer reports, “Contracts with both NBC Universal and Fox call for a certain number of shows per year that can be taped. For Raw, that number is three”

https://www.f4wonline.com/wwe-news/wwe-resume-live-raw-smackdown-nxt-tv-shows-308611

April 13: WWE and Ad Council partner to launch national PSA for COVID-19 prevention.

https://community.wwe.com/hope/news/wwe-and-ad-council-partner-launch-national-psas-raise-awareness-during-covid-19-pandemic

https://twitter.com/WWECommunity/status/1249713258325520385 (AUDIO)

April 13: Alpha Entertainment (XFL parent) files for chapter 11 bankruptcy

http://courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.deb.180998/gov.uscourts.deb.180998.1.0.pdf

https://twitter.com/wrestlenomics/status/1250112332363112448

https://twitter.com/wrestlenomics/status/1250113644286918664

https://twitter.com/wrestlenomics/status/1250114458774654977

https://twitter.com/wrestlenomics/status/1250107587518853120

Debtor’s list: https://www.scribd.com/document/456411482/XFL-Chapter-11-Certification-of-Debtor-s-List-of-Creditors

April 13: Orange County Mayor Jerry Demmings clarifies that WWE has been deemed an essential business by the governor.

https://twitter.com/harryaaron/status/1249814965059497992 (AUDIO)

April 13: Gov. DeSantis’s press secretary Cody McCloud tells Marc Raimondi that UFC or boxing could be deemed essential. “The memo does not specify specific sports, as long as the event location is closed to the general public.”

https://twitter.com/marc_raimondi/status/1249871227000258561

April 14: Gov. DeSantis at press conference on WWE: “There’s no crowd or anything. It’s a very small number of people.

https://twitter.com/wrestlenomics/status/1250188085243060225

April 14: Orange County Sheriff says deputies responded to the PC in March and April

https://twitter.com/StephanieCNews/status/1250158815594545157

April 15: Vince McMahon’s message to employees

https://www.fightful.com/wrestling/exclusives/transcript-vince-mcmahon-s-message-wwe-employees-ahead-cuts

April 15: Gov. DeSantis dismissed notions that politics played a role in decision to amend executive order

https://twitter.com/NewsGuyGreg/status/1250540257684193280 (AUDIO)

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Vince McMahon's latest endeavor into professional football seems to have come to an end after most XFL employees were laid off this morning.

Does WWE's "cinematic" approach demonstrated at Wrestlemania have an economic relevance? What does it mean for the development of new stars?

Follow Wrestlenomics at twitter.com/wrestlenomics

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Brandon Thurston talks about these subjects:

-Knox County Mayor Glenn Jacobs on his governor's stay-home order

-Predictions on how long it'll be before wrestling events will go back to normal

-WWE will remain profitable despite COVID19 restrictions

-WWE and AEW TV rights aren’t at risk

-Wrestlemania offered as a $60 PPV on streaming platforms

-Wrestlenomics dubstep math: Showing how venue merchandise likely doesn't compensate for WWE house show losses

-Q1 2020 viewership trends, top quarter-hours for NXT and AEW

-“XFL Lawsuit” dismissed

-WWE's India TV deal finalized

-John Cena on whether it's possible for WWE to develop another major star

Follow Wrestlenomics at twitter.com/wrestlenomics

Visit the leading source for wrestling business analysis: wrestlenomics.com

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As we remain quarantined at home, the wrestling business continues on. Brandon Thurston talks about these topics:

-COVID19 risks, Roman Reigns pulls out of Wrestlemania match

-Vince McMahon enters into stock sale agreement with Morgan Stanley

-Is WWE’s PPV rights deal dead?

-WWE COVID19 risk model

-Paul Levesque’s new corporate title

-How do investors and analysts think about WWE’s business?

Visit the newly revamped wrestlenomics.com for data sources and blog posts.

Follow Wrestlenomics on Twitter: twitter.com/wrestlenomics

Support this podcast at — https://redcircle.com/wrestlenomics-radio/donations

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