Hi, everyone. I’m Sam Shirazi, and this is Federal of Fallout, the 2020 by Virginia elections. This episode, we will go over the new map that has been proposed by the Virginia Democrats after they have undergone the process of potentially doing redistricting this year in Virginia. Now, caveat all that with first, they have to make sure that they...

00:19.57

Sam Shirazi

overcome any legal challenges the Republicans are bringing, then there will have to be a referendum on April 21st, and the voters will have to approve redistricting this year in Virginia. But if all of that happens, then potentially this map that the Virginia Democrats have just released will be the maps that will be used in 2026. And there’s some really major changes in some districts. Other districts, there aren’t that many changes. So what I thought I’d do is I’d go district by district and kind of explain the changes, explain who won, who lost, why the districts look a certain way, and what were some surprises that we saw in this new map.

00:54.62

Sam Shirazi

And so anyways, I’ll go district by district. I wanted to say big picture. what this district What this map does is essentially give Democrats a 10 to 1 delegation for it likely in 2026. So what that means is the Democrats will be able to elect...

01:12.08

Sam Shirazi

10 Democrats in Virginia versus just one Republican. Currently, there’s a 6-5 map. That means there are six Democrats, five Republicans. Not every single district is deep blue. And potentially in a competitive election cycle, the the Republicans could win some seats that under this map.

01:29.64

Sam Shirazi

However, the goal, I think, for the Virginia Democrats is really to get in 2026 and probably in 2028.

01:38.41

Sam Shirazi

2030, lot of things could be different. We could have a Democratic president by 2030. And so it’s it’s possible the Republicans will win some seats under this map in 2030. But I don’t think the Virginia Democrats are too worried about 2030 because that’s the last election these maps will be used. They’ll be redistricting again because of the new census data. So this map is really for 2026 and 2028. And I think it does what it needs to do, it it seems like. And then I’ll go district by district.

02:05.40

Sam Shirazi

And really the way the Virginia Democrats redrew the map, the main change was that they basically cracked Northern Virginia. There’s two ways of gerrymandering. You either crack or you pack. And cracking is often thought of as you crack...

02:20.25

Sam Shirazi

in an area to disadvantage the other side, but you can also crack an area to advantage yourself. And obviously Northern Virginia is very blue. And so you could have a few very blue districts in Northern Virginia, or you could crack Northern Virginia and get a bunch of blue districts. And that’s basically what the Democrats have done. They’ve also packed in a couple of districts. So in the ninth district, they basically packed all the Republicans in this in the Western part of the state in the ninth district.

02:49.75

Sam Shirazi

The sixth is technically a kind of a pack, although it’s a pack of Democrats. So the Democrats have basically found a bunch of different areas in Virginia where there are Democrats and they kind of pack them together. So long story short, I will go district by district because I think there’s a lot of interesting stuff going on.

03:07.10

Sam Shirazi

And so I will start off with the first district. So the first district is currently represented by Rob Whitman. It’s basically a Richmond area seat and then it kind of scoops down and goes into Hampton Roads.

03:17.82

Sam Shirazi

Under the old map, Trump won the district by about five points in 2024. The new map, Harris won it by about seven and a half points in 2024. So obviously we’re going from kind of a light red seat to a light blue seat. And I think in 2026 environment, it’s going to be pretty likely the Democrats are going to be able to win this seat. The current incumbent, Rob Whitman, he is going to be one of the losers of Virginia redistricting because his district has gotten a lot... bluer And he doesn’t even really live in this new first district and we’ll talk about it. And so I don’t even know if he’ll run in the first district if it ends up happening.

03:55.78

Sam Shirazi

So the new first district is is kind of an interesting looking seat. It kind of goes from all the way from Fairfax And then it kind of goes down I-95 all the way down to the Richmond suburbs. So it’s basically kind of like an I-95 district from Northern Virginia down to Richmond.

04:17.20

Sam Shirazi

And honestly, I think this is the district that Eugene Vindman, who currently represents the 7th district, I think Vindman is going to run in the 1st district. because his home of Prince William County, like the Woodbridge area, most of that is in the first district. And so I think Vintman’s probably going to run in that district if I had to guess. And, you know, both for the primary In the general election, I think Vindman would be the favorite. Now, obviously, they could, someone could run against him in the primary, depending on, you know, what happens. But I do think Vindman overall is is a winner of redistricting.

05:19.05

Sam Shirazi

Okay, let’s go to the second district. And honestly, the second district was one of the biggest surprises of the night. Why? Because it didn’t change that much. And you know you would think this is one of the seats the Democrats are trying to win in Virginia, flip.

05:32.52

Sam Shirazi

So you think they want to change it a lot, but they actually didn’t change it that much. So it went from kind of a very marginal Trump plus 0.3 district in 2024 to now it’s about a plus 1.3 Harris district. So about, you know, one point or so bluer.

05:49.96

Sam Shirazi

And obviously that helps Elaine Luria, but the Democrats could have done even more. And the district really didn’t change that much. I was expecting the district to include parts of Norfolk.

06:01.17

Sam Shirazi

And, you know, have a kind of a Norfolk, Virginia Beach district. I don’t think it includes any of Norfolk and it actually includes part of Chesapeake. So it’s kind of swapped some parts of Chesapeake.

06:12.98

Sam Shirazi

Didn’t really expect that. I thought the second was going to change a lot more than it did. And, you know, there’s a lot of speculation about why that is. It’s potentially because the third district, Bobby Scott, he’s the dean of the Virginia delegation. It’s possible that he has some influence and he didn’t want his change his district changed that much.

06:29.73

Sam Shirazi

I don’t really know. But regardless, I think the second district, Luria, still comes out ahead because it’s a bluer district. I think she’s not going to face any serious primary challenger.

06:40.51

Sam Shirazi

So I think Luria is in the driver’s seat for the second district. You know, Kiggins, at the end of the day, the current incumbent, Jen Kiggins, like she could have gotten a much worse gerrymander against her. And so I guess in some ways, you know, things aren’t that bad for her. But I still think in 2026, she’s going to be the underdog.

06:56.88

Sam Shirazi

There’s been a lot of federal fallout. Hampton Roads has felt a lot of that. So I do think In the second, Luria is favored, although it was a bit of a surprise that the district didn’t change that much. And it basically kind of looks like the same district with a little bit of changes here and there.

07:11.04

Sam Shirazi

So I would say, you know, second district, Elaine Luria is, you know, the favorite, but not necessarily a slam dunk for the Democrats.

07:21.64

Sam Shirazi

So I talked a little bit already about the third district. So the third district, the incumbent is Bobby Scott. The district goes from about a 34.5 Harris district in to about 31.5 Harris district. so honestly, not a lot of change.

07:37.93

Sam Shirazi

Bobby Scott’s probably one of the biggest winners of the redistricting because his district is basically the same and it’s as blue as it was before or just slightly less blue. So he’s, you know, in a pretty safe position. And so anyways, not a whole lot to say about the third district in that sense.

07:56.06

Sam Shirazi

All right, now let’s move on to the fourth district. So the fourth district is currently represented by Jennifer McClellan. It was about a 32.5 Harris district in 2024. And the new district is going to be about a 16 point plus Harris district. So still pretty safe blue seat in Virginia.

08:17.06

Sam Shirazi

I think the changes in this district were kind of on the margins. You basically got – she gave up some of the some parts of Richmond and Henrico and got a little bit more of Southside. So that’s why her district got less blue. But at the end of the day, like Jennifer McClellan still came out on top because she’s got most of Richmond, which is her base.

08:40.43

Sam Shirazi

And then the district is still you know pretty blue. And so I don’t really anticipate her her having many much problems in the the primary or the general. So fourth district, not a whole lot to talk about.

08:53.24

Sam Shirazi

I will move on to the fifth district because this district district changed a lot. So the current incumbent is John McGuire. And the district is about 12-point Trump district from 2024.

09:05.81

Sam Shirazi

Under the new lines, it’s almost a nine-point Harris district. So big swing. Democrats are going to be pretty safe in that seat. And the way it’s changed is the the fifth district currently is kind of a Charlottesville Southside district.

09:19.21

Sam Shirazi

And actually, it doesn’t include any of Charlottesville. And it’s been shifted over to the Richmond suburbs. So it’s basically like the Richmond suburbs and then parts of Southside. And, you know, John McGuire is in a pretty tough spot because I don’t really think he can run in this district.

09:34.32

Sam Shirazi

And, you know, in the primary, it’s always possible that different people would run. But I do think Shannon Taylor, who’s already announced, is going to run. So even though Shannon Taylor is announced for the first district, I do think she’s going end up running in the fifth district because of her base of Henrico and the Richmond suburbs is going to be in the fifth district. So I think, you know, anything, anything’s possible. But I do think in the fifth district, Shannon Taylor’s potentially the front runner and John McGuire is in a pretty tough spot.

10:01.59

Sam Shirazi

Okay, now let’s move on to the 6th Congressional District, which saw a huge change as well. So this went from basically being a Trump 24 district and in 2024 to now it’s a Harris plus three or so district in 2026 if these new maps stay. And so the thing is,

10:22.98

Sam Shirazi

In terms of this district, I think you know the current Congressman Ben Cline is in a really tough spot. Obviously, his district has been basically eviscerated. And this new district has been created that is essentially, people have called it a Collegetown District because it goes from Charlottesville and then it goes up to Harrisonburg and Staunton.

10:42.18

Sam Shirazi

And then it goes down to Lynchburg, goes down to Roanoke and Salem, and then goes all the way to Blacksburg and Radford. So it’s It’s taking a bunch of college towns in Western Virginia and basically grouping them all together. So you could kind of say that the Democrats have packed a bunch of Democrats into this seat so that the they get a pretty blue seat. Not super blue, but I think in 2026 should be blue enough. And, you know... The current front runner, if I had to guess, would be Tom Perriello. He’s announced in the fifth district, although I think he’ll end up running in the sixth district. And I think given you know he was previously a congressman in the district, I think he will probably be the favorite both in the primary and in the general election. So if I had to guess, I think Tom Perriello is in a good spot for the sixth district.

11:29.66

Sam Shirazi

Okay, let’s move on to the 7th district. So the current 7th district was about a Harris plus 3 district 2024. And now it’s going to be about a Harris plus 8.5 district. Now, as I mentioned, the current Congressman Eugene Vindman, I don’t think he’s going to end up running in the 7th district. I think he’s going to end up running in the 1st district.

11:51.13

Sam Shirazi

And so that means the 7th is basically kind of a wide open seat with no one really claiming it, in in my opinion. There’s been a lot of rumors that Dan Helmer, Delegate Dan Helmer, will want to run in the 7th.

12:04.39

Sam Shirazi

He is currently in the House of Delegates. He represents Fairfax. He ran for Congress in 2018 and 2024. In 2024, he ran in the 10th district, came really close, but lost in the primary. And it’s going to be of a free-for-all potentially if Helmer’s not able to clear the field because this district is really oddly shaped. It goes...

12:24.79

Sam Shirazi

All the way from North Arlington, then it goes into Fairfax, and then it goes near Manassas, goes down to Culpeper, and then it goes way about into the Shenandoah Valley. And so just scoops up a lot of different areas. Obviously, most of the population and the the Democratic base is going to be in the Northern Virginia part of the district.

12:43.80

Sam Shirazi

and Fun fact, that this is actually my district, so if if these maps happen, I will be in the new 7th district, and I will make a bold announcement here that I will not be running in the 7th district because I don’t want to take time away from podcasting. I’m kind of kidding, but anyways. So 7th district is going to be really interesting, going to be one to watch, and I’ll be curious to see you know what potentially happens in a primary and one of the districts that it’s just not clear who the front runner would be.

13:16.57

Sam Shirazi

Okay, now let’s talk about the eighth congressional district that’s currently represented by Don Beyer. Very blue seat currently, it’s about a Harris plus 49 district.

13:27.58

Sam Shirazi

Under the new lines, completely kind of watered down to Harris plus 18 district. So still very blue, But not as blue as it currently is.

13:37.77

Sam Shirazi

And I think this district has been like totally changed. So it basically goes from South Arlington, Alexandria and Northern Virginia, all the way down the Potomac. So it just kind of flows along the Potomac and goes all the way down to Hampton Roads, you know, basically to the Yorktown area. So.

13:56.01

Sam Shirazi

You know, this district has become this totally different district, still kind of the base, Democratic base is Northern Virginia. i think Don Beyer, you know, all indications is he’s going to run for reelection. And I think if he runs for reelection, it’ll be in this district, you know,

14:12.77

Sam Shirazi

In theory, you know could he face a primary challenger now that the district is totally different? Like, yes, but there aren’t a lot of Democrats in the other part of the district, to be honest, because it’s kind of a mix of more rural areas. And you know at the end of the day, I think Bayer does have a good shot of winning the primary because it includes all of his base of Alexandria and includes part of Arlington. So I do think even though the district has changed a lot, I think Bayer still is the favorite in this district.

14:40.74

Sam Shirazi

And so that’s the 8th district. Let’s go down to the 9th district. This is the one that has actually gotten redder. So the 9th congressional district, currently the congressman is Morgan Griffin. It was about a 44 plus Trump district in 2024.

14:55.30

Sam Shirazi

And it has now become about a 49% Trump district. So this is essentially just a Republican pack. So Democrats just pack all the Republicans in this district. So include Southwest Virginia, parts of Southside Virginia, parts of Western Virginia. So just packing a lot of Republicans in this district.

15:13.25

Sam Shirazi

And i think the the question mark is who runs in this district? I assume Morgan Griffith, the current incumbent, will want to run here. Does Ben Klein want to run here, who’s in the sixth district right now? Does John McGuire, who’s in the fifth district, want to run here? And potentially if all three of them run, that would be a pretty crazy primary.

15:31.57

Sam Shirazi

so we’ll see. but But obviously this is the one seat the Republicans will be able to win no matter what Okay, let’s go back up to Northern Virginia for the 10th district. So the current incumbent is Suhas Subramiam. It was about an 8-point Harris district in 2024, and now it becomes a 13-point Harris district in this new map. And essentially, it’s kind of the old 10th district. So the 10th district...

15:58.68

Sam Shirazi

Back for the last decade was essentially a Loudoun-based seat that went into the Shenandoah Valley, included parts of Fairfax. And it’s kind of become that again. And I think Suhas Subramiam is in a strong position. All of his base of Loudoun is in one district held together.

16:14.60

Sam Shirazi

So I think in the primary, he’s going be favorite. In the general, he’s going to be favorite. So I think Suhas is is you know in pretty good shape in 10th district. And we’ll wrap things up in the 11th district. So the 11th district currently very blue about a Harris thirty plus 34 district in 2024, and it has become a Harris plus 14 district in 2024. The current congressman is James Watkinshaw.

16:39.81

Sam Shirazi

And, you know, in theory, he might face a primary just because the district has changed a fair amount. Right now, it’s currently 100% in Fairfax County and Fairfax City.

16:50.86

Sam Shirazi

The district now is basically, you know, McLean, Northern Fairfax down to Fairfax City. And then it goes all the way out along I-66 out into the Shenandoah Valley. yeah.

17:03.52

Sam Shirazi

Walkinshaw’s district’s been changed a lot. I still think given that you know most of the district is based in Fairfax County, I still think he has a pretty good shot of winning the primary. And then if he wins the primary, he’s going to be a strong contender in the general election.

17:16.56

Sam Shirazi

So anyways, that’s kind of the the district by district analysis. you know Long story short, I think most of the incumbents, are the Democratic incumbents are in pretty good shape, potentially potentially Beyer or Watkinshaw could face a primary. Obviously, the Republican incumbents are in pretty bad shape, except Morgan Griffith, kind of his district was kept, but he could face a primary with Ben Cline or John McGuire.

17:45.83

Sam Shirazi

And at the end of the day, like, you know, people have had various comments, but I do think the map basically does what the Democrats needed to do. It gets them to 10-1 in 2026, probably gets them to You know, if there’s a red wave in 2030, if there’s a Democratic president, you know, conceivably they would lose some seats. But at that point, the House was probably going to be lost anyways.

18:09.50

Sam Shirazi

And so I think the map for the Democratic perspective, you know, is pretty good. i think the main issue I’ve heard people comment on is the fact the second district could have been bluer. And again, that was a kind of a surprise that it wasn’t bluer. But at the end of the day they should be able to flip it.

18:26.75

Sam Shirazi

You know, the other thing to note is the map doesn’t look that clean. This is very clearly a gerrymander. I mean, sometimes you can kind of do a stealth gerrymander that looks clean and you’re like, you know, it doesn’t look that bad. This is not one of those. i mean, this is definitely, you know you look at it and it’s pretty obvious that it’s a gerrymander.

18:44.96

Sam Shirazi

I think the Democrats attitude is like, it doesn’t matter because obviously the Republicans in Texas, for example, gerrymandered. and their map doesn’t look good. And their attitude is, you know, people are not going to be looking at the nuances of this of the districts. I mean, they may take a look at the map, but that’s not what the debate is going to be about. The debate is really about Donald Trump, his, you know push of getting Republican states to gerrymander and Democratic states need to respond. And just even beyond the kind of gerrymandering debate, it really is is kind of a more bigger picture debate about

19:19.72

Sam Shirazi

democracy and the threat to democracy. and And really above that, it’s basically, do you like Trump or do you not like Trump? Or do you want to send a message to Trump or you don’t want to send a message to Trump? Okay, so what are the next steps? So the next steps are there’s going to be a legal challenge. That legal challenge has basically been fast tracked to the Virginia Supreme Court.

19:38.70

Sam Shirazi

So the Virginia Supreme Court is going to be hearing that legal challenge. We’ll see how that goes. I mean, as I mentioned in my previous podcast, both sides feel pretty confident that they’re going to win the legal challenge. Obviously, only one side is going to be right. Either the Virginia Supreme Court is going to let the referendum happen or they’re not going to let the referendum happen.

19:56.07

Sam Shirazi

And you know there’s really no way of knowing that until we get the ruling. So I don’t want to dwell on it too much right now. But let’s assume that the Virginia Supreme Court lets the referendum go forward. There will be the referendum campaign. The election will be on April 21st. I think most people assume that the Democrats are going to be able to pass that referendum if it if it goes to the voters.

20:21.85

Sam Shirazi

And actually, we got a new piece of data since the last time I had a podcast, and that is a new poll that came out from the CNU Christopher Newport University Wason Center.

20:35.32

Sam Shirazi

And you know that was interesting because it was the first basically poll this year or public poll that gave us information about the current referendum campaign.

20:47.22

Sam Shirazi

And that poll showed that for redistricting, 51% support it and 43% oppose it. And so I think, you know, that’s one data point that is is giving you the sense that maybe this thing is going to pass.

20:59.90

Sam Shirazi

The other thing is, honestly, it’s going to be kind of a proxy of partisanship or do you like Trump, you don’t like Trump. And you know most indications are that Trump has negative approval in Virginia. That same CNU poll had Trump’s approval as 62% disapproved, 34% approved.

21:18.66

Sam Shirazi

Now, I don’t know if his disapproval is that high in Virginia, but even if it’s you know in the 50s, that should be enough where the Democrats are going to be able to pass this referendum. So let’s assume the referendum passes. then the General Assembly will have to do some work in order to implement the new maps and then to change probably the primary date because the filing deadline coming up and you know you obviously need to give time to the candidates to be able to file in the districts. You need to give them time to, you know at the end of the day, run their campaigns for the primary. and they they Right now, you don’t really know which districts you’re going to be running in because potentially the legal challenges will strike down the referendum. Potentially the referendum doesn’t pass, although it seems likely that it will. So anyways, the primary day has it changed.

22:09.07

Sam Shirazi

The candidates will have to run in the primary. The primary will happen. And then obviously the general election will happen. So still a lot of things have to go right for the Virginia Democrats in order for these new maps to be implemented. But I think they’re really excited that it was at least finally revealed. I think the Democrats had gotten to the point where we just want to get the maps out. There was a lot of kind of information being shared about backroom deals and sausage making and kind of rumors. And I think most people just wanted to see the map and, you know cut to the chase. Let’s look at the maps. Let’s not kind of dwell on all the backroom dealing and wheeling. And so the maps have come out. They are what they are.

22:45.11

Sam Shirazi

I think for the Democrats purposes, they serve them. i do think it was I don’t think it was a surprise that it was 10-1. But, you know, at the end of the day, the Democrats did go ten one There was a question whether they go 9-2. They went ten one I know there was you know there was some reporting that Spanberger was hesitant about 10-1, but she’s basically come out and said, you know we can implement a 10-1 map. She didn’t really come out against this. So it seems like she’ll go along with it, especially if the voters end up endorsing it in the referendum. And so I think i think for the most part, things are on track for the Virginia Democrats. Frankly, the biggest unknown for them is just the legal challenge. The Republicans are talking a lot about the legal challenge.

23:27.54

Sam Shirazi

I do think that they may be overestimating or overplaying their hand because you know courts are unpredictable and you know Generally in Virginia, the courts are hesitant to get too involved in the political process.

23:40.29

Sam Shirazi

And given that these are not the final maps yet, the voters still have to endorse the referendum process in the referendum process. I do see there’s i could see a world where the Virginia Supreme Court just says, you know, we’re not we’re not going to get in the middle of this, like let the voters decide. It’s it’s ultimately up to them.

23:57.63

Sam Shirazi

And if that’s the case, that’s not going to be great for the Virginia Republicans. But maybe they’re right and maybe the Virginia Supreme Court will will buy some of their arguments and none of this will even matter. And all this work has been for nothing because the referendum won’t happen. Either way, we’ll find out hopefully sometime in February.

24:17.33

Sam Shirazi

you know I do encourage everyone to go look at the maps. They’re interesting. you know I’ll probably have more insights on them down the line, but that was kind of my first impression, and I wanted to kind of go through district by district.

24:28.63

Sam Shirazi

Hopefully people found this interesting. I will continue to cover things. I do think the primaries are going to be interesting. Potentially some of the general elections might be interesting, although I still think no matter what, the Democrats probably are going to get a 10-1 in 2026.

24:42.29

Sam Shirazi

under these lines if they happen. But yeah, I mean, certainly a big day in Virginia politics when the maps came out and, you know, I’ll continue to cover everything. And I appreciate everyone who’s who’s been been following me on this long ride. You know, these maps are going to be important in 2026 and they’re only really happening because the Democrats won in 2025. So 2025 is still very important, even though we are in 2026.

25:07.03

Sam Shirazi

We’ll just have to wait and see what happens with the redistricting referendum in Virginia. But I did want to go over the map and I appreciate everyone who’s been listening. And this has been Federal Fallout and I’ll join you next time.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit samshirazi.substack.com