I joined former Virginia Redistricting Commission citizen commissioner James Abreino on his podcast James Pod for a discussion about the Virginia elections and redistricting.
Transcript below:
Hey, folks, welcome to James Pod. Today I have a very interesting guest, a good friend of mine, Sam Shirazi. The main reason I wanted to start this podcast was really to talk about issues that impact Northern Virginia, obviously elections have a big big impact locally, statewide, and nationally. reason I brought Sam on is he's i got a very interesting hobby, but he also started a very interesting podcast. It's called Federal Fallout. And if you don't listen to it already and you're interested in Virginia politics, absolutely huge recommendation.
I'll put a link to the show notes, but it's on Apple podcast and all that. and And Sam, you don't have a YouTube channel, do you? No, I only do audio. I haven't gotten to the video, but it's nice to see you in person and see the video.
Speaker
Sure, so I actually grew up in LA and I decided to go to the University of Virginia for college and I really went at the right time because i obviously I was interested in politics even back then. So I came to Virginia in 2006, really the time when it was shifting from being red state to a purple state and now maybe it's a light blue state. So got to see the Jim Webb campaign in 2006. I worked at the University of Virginia for as volunteer for the Obama campaign in 2008 got to see that campaign, which is an amazing campaign. And then, you know, off and on, I was engaged in Virginia politics because, you know, I had stuff going on career, family, the and then 2021, actually because of the redistricting commission was one of the main reasons I got reengaged in politics. And I saw your work on the redistricting commission. And honestly, I thought you were one of the commissioners who were, was really doing a good job trying to represent the people of Virginia. And anyway, so that was when i really got reengaged, started posting on social media, going on podcasts. and ever since then I've been doing it and people have found it interesting. So I've just kept, kept with it.
Yeah. and and And I will tell you what I really like about your podcast. First of all, it's, And I know Chaz and other folks have more technical, but have technical resources. um Yours for me, maybe just because it's audio formats, has been really easy for me to kind of relate to.
Speaker
I also do like, you know, I know you work for Obama, but I do like the fact that it's not really partisan tilting. I'm sure people would say otherwise if they're coming from the other side of the aisle, but I do like your objective nature, and i think it's just easy to hear you talking about it. So, again, just another plug-in for your podcast. So thank you for what you're doing, okay?
Why is it called Federal Fallout?
Speaker
Yeah, so I mean, I appreciate the kind words about the podcast. Yeah, so what I created, I envisioned it to be nonpartisan and really informative for the average person who might be interested in politics, but isn't living and breathing Virginia politics.
And obviously, this year, we have the election is an important election. When I saw what was going on in DC at the beginning of the year, in my mind, it had to have an impact on Virginia, because there's so much federal influence in both the jobs and just the nature of Virginia tied to the military. It's not just Northern Virginia. For example, Hampton Roads has a strong military culture.
So I figured what's going on in D.C. is going to impact the Virginia elections. So call the federal fallout. Not every episode is exploring what's going on in D.C., but in the background, the theme of the podcast is what's going on in DC is going to impact the Virginia elections. And, you know, obviously i have to give an objective assessment of where things are. And I think overall, most people think, and the data so far is showing that it's going to be helping the Virginia Democrats this year in the elections, in terms of probably right now they're on track to win the elections. Although we'll see what ends up happening in November.
Speaker
So obviously Democrats are honing in on what Doge has done and doing and the the cuts to the federal workforce. I wanted to take a second because I know that the the Republicans – A candidate for governor made a statement recently on CNN about it So I'm going to pull this up real quick.
Just wanted to get your thoughts on it. So give me just a second. So this is the candidate for a Republican Party for Virginia, Winsome Earl Sears. And this is what she had to say about whether or not, know, the job cuts are affecting Virginia.
So I saw that and it was a little longer as we're watching it together. Hopefully it was useful for the for the viewers. And I know you've seen it. What's your thoughts on I mean, I think that in a lot of ways capsulates kind of where this race is going, or at least in my view, my bias view. What's your thoughts on on her response on Sears response?
Speaker
Yeah, so I posted about this. I think the Doge effect and the federal job cuts have been the hardest issue for the Virginia GOP this year because they can't really take a position one way or the other. And if you think about it, they can't fully embrace it and say, oh, yeah, it's great. All these federal workers are getting fired because, you know, Virginia, lot of people know federal employees.
Speaker
They can't fully embrace it. They can't fully disown it and say, no, they shouldn't be firing federal workers. And so that you get these non answers of this middle ground or they don't want to talk about it or they talk about the private sector.
So they never really answer the question. And typically in politics, if you decide that has the clearer position, usually ends up winning that issue. So if you think about the Democratic position, this decision there shouldn't be these federal job cuts or at least they should be going about it in a way that makes sense.
as opposed to just randomly firing people at certain times. And so overall, I mean, I think it's one of the things that is hurting the Virginia GOP this year. And it just doesn't look great if you're a voter, or you're trying to figure out, you know, what is the GOP position on the Doge federal job cuts in Virginia? I think the the the best I can understand is they said these people can just find jobs in the private sector. But again, that is not a super clear answer to a question.
and And, you know, you saw the reporter ask yes or no. And, She just couldn't answer it because she can't say yes and she can't say no. Well, and it's interesting. So and I'm an avid listener of your podcast. Oftentimes I'll text you afterwards and interesting conversations. And I know you recently had Tim Anderson on. He's.
00:06:37.78
Speaker
Candidate for House of Delegates, District 97. And I think he was making the same arguments that Sears, I think, tried to make, that essentially once this – these job cuts started happening, Yunkin produced a website. I think it's called Virginia Has Jobs or something to that effect.
00:06:55.85
Speaker
And essentially to offset those because their position is, look, we have private jobs here in Virginia. The federal workforce is bloated. Why don't you come here and work in Virginia in the public sector, in the private sector?
00:07:07.30
Speaker
Have you seen any evidence or or have you heard anybody saying, you know what, I've been able to navigate that realm. I've found that productive. I found that website useful.
00:07:17.51
Speaker
So in terms of the specific website, I have not heard anyone go to that website. I mean, I think most people, if you're trying to find a job, you go to either your network or you go to LinkedIn or you go to the normal places. I don't think anyone's really specifically going to a Virginia State website, you know, dying to look for a job.
00:07:33.49
Speaker
I mean, certainly some of the people who have either, well, you know decided to move on from the federal government or have actually been laid off from the federal government. I'm sure they're finding jobs because people have paid bills. They're willing to go to other places.
00:07:45.04
Speaker
The reality is, and I think the Democratic nominee, Abigail Spamberger, has talked about this. you know A lot of these people came to Virginia or came to the DC area because they wanted to work for the federal government. They believe in public service. They believe in what they're doing.
00:07:57.94
Speaker
And so I think just saying, well, you can just go to the private sector misses the point about why people work for the federal government. And oftentimes they're taking a pay cut in terms of what they could be making in the private sector.
00:08:09.00
Speaker
And, you know, often this is framed as a Northern Virginia issue, but I think people in Hampton Roads, even though they work for the they're in the military side of things, they understand public service. They understand wanting to work for the federal government in the military side of things. And so while I get the, you know, I get what the Republicans are trying to do and that's what they have, know, what else are you going to say?
00:08:28.87
Speaker
In a state like Virginia, Commonwealth like Virginia, where people really are tied to the federal government, not just because they want a job and want a paycheck, but because they believe in public service. I think it's a tough sell in Virginia to kind of just say, oh, go to the private sector, because this isn't like, you know, New York with Wall Street, where everyone's just super pro business. i mean, a lot of people's identity, even if you're a Republican leading and your military voter is tied up with the federal government and working for the federal government.
00:08:57.00
Speaker
yeah and And look, this question may be an unfair one. It's beyond more kind of analytical. It's more kind of opinion, i think. why Why is it not possible for the Republican Party, Tim Anderson specifically, but also Sears at more of a general level,
00:09:13.85
Speaker
Why can't they make the argument that, look, we agree, because obviously Trump is who they are, but we agree with most of what Trump has done, but we believe that Doge was implemented in a haphazard way.
00:09:27.32
Speaker
We believe that while we need serious immigration reform and you know you need to be more efficient with the federal government, you can't do it this way. It was implemented badly. Why don't you think that Republicans go a little bit further to not even necessarily distance themselves from Trump, but to be new more nuanced about that to make this argument easier for them.
00:09:48.84
Speaker
So I think this is an issue that both sides have, and I hate to sue the both side things, although I think it is worse for the Republican side. i mean you have basically two groups of voters. You have your base of voters, and then you have the middle undecided type voters.
00:10:03.22
Speaker
And I think the advantage the Democrats have this year is their base is going to be fired up and angry and going to show up no matter what. And so you see with Stamberger, she's able to maybe try to cater more towards the middle.
00:10:13.97
Speaker
The problem the Republicans have, and this is always a problem in these off-year elections when you're the party in the White House, your base needs to show up. And so your base, a lot of them support what Doge is doing. And so if you say, well, Doge or the the federal firings didn't go well or they could have been done better, i mean, your base is going to get upset at that.
00:10:31.18
Speaker
And so if your your base, you know, as a Republican politician, you have to think, I need to say something that's going to keep my base happy, but I also have to try to appeal to the middle. And i think that's the huge challenge.
00:10:42.66
Speaker
Some issues are easier than others to do that. I think the problem with this, this is the type of issue where I think their base is very much in support of what's going on with Trump.
00:10:54.04
Speaker
And so you can't really distance yourself too much from him because you'll you'll upset the base. And, you know, it's one of those things where you're politician, some issues are good for you, some issues are bad for you, and you're trying to figure out how to do each issue.
00:11:08.35
Speaker
And, you know, Spanberger has this issue too with with certain policies, but ultimately I think the fact that the doge cuts are such a big deal in Virginia, that's why it's so hard for them to navigate. And and I agree with you. I mean, I think it makes sense to try to critique I've heard some people, one way of doing it would be make Musk the bad guy because he's kind of fallen out with Republicans now and said, oh, this is all Musk's fault. And like basically Trump, Trump did everything right, but Musk messed it up.
00:11:34.72
Speaker
I'm actually surprised they haven't done that. I think that's probably the smartest political angle if you're trying to, you know, walk that tightrope. Well, wonder if they're concerned about truck Musk hitting back.
00:11:47.31
Speaker
But I suspect, you know, Musk probably does not care about what a governor's race is saying about about him. He's focused on what's coming out of truth social or whatever it is at this point.
00:11:59.72
Speaker
I will say, though, you know, looking at the both sides, because you know, and I know you kind of caveat a little bit, but, you know, I think there are are issues with on the Democratic side that we take issue with that I think But openly, you know, Spanberger, right to work, I think there's there's some open divide there where I think she's kind of trying to walk the aisle. But I think there are people in the Democratic Party willing to openly say, look, we need to be more progressive about that.
00:12:27.15
Speaker
I will tell you, i can anticipate – and look – I am 100% behind Spanberger, but I have a feeling that I'm going to, and folks like me are going to hope that she's more progressive than she ends up being, which is fair. I mean, she's got I would rather her win the election, but I think we can go further there.
00:12:45.42
Speaker
know, immigration, for instance, I think that's a good point that I wish at the federal – and again, this is a little bit tangent, but had I think Harris been a bit more vocal about and maybe, quote, distanced herself from Biden a little bit, maybe there could have been something there because I do think that – We all obviously are seeing what's happened with immigration and ICE. Nobody agrees with this. or I think a lot of Republicans have an issue, but I think we could have been more nuanced on how we look at it. But that being said, again, I'm just standing up for my own part. I don't think it's it's the same, but it is what it is.
00:13:18.41
Speaker
Again, a national issue. you You did a little aversancy or a supplemental know bonus podcast. That's what you call a bonus podcast about the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
00:13:28.91
Speaker
What's your thoughts? First of all, just tell us what's happening there, what Trump did and and how it impacts Virginia. and And the ultimate question I'm going to be asking you is how are how are we going to be looking at these job reports going forward, especially in considering the federal fallout?
00:13:44.64
Speaker
Right. So just a quick recap. On Friday, the jobs numbers came out, which this is a monthly report. And usually it creates a little bit of a news cycle, but it's not like the biggest thing in the world. I think the important thing from this last job cycle, job report, there was some revisions to previous months. And so overall, it painted kind of not a great picture about the job market and not that many jobs jobs are being created.
00:14:07.25
Speaker
President Trump didn't like that. And so he decided to fire the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which is the agency that puts out these numbers. I think s there's a couple of things going on. One, there's this macro debate about the economy. I mean, the party in the White House always tries to say economy is great. Everything's fine.
00:14:24.59
Speaker
And then the party out of the White House tends to say economy is not doing well. I mean, these numbers these jobs reports are one of the objective numbers we have to say, OK, which side is right? is yeah And I think future reports, I mean who knows, but theoretically, if you are the current head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, I mean you know, the president is going to look at the number and that your job is on the line. I mean, maybe you're the type of person who just doesn't care. Okay. If he fires me, he fires me.
00:14:49.25
Speaker
not the end the world. Or you might be the type of person that thinks, you know, I need to keep my job. So I'm going to, put out a number that I think the president's going to like. And, you you know, there are private companies that do similar types of reports that, you know, states look at these numbers. So while it's, I think ultimately the problem that the Republicans are going to have is the economy is the economy.
00:15:13.32
Speaker
And so you can try to spin it. You can try to say things are great. But if people are losing their jobs or if people are going to supermarket and are feeling high prices, it's going to, it's going to come back to bite you. And I think the Democrats, unfortunately, learned this the hard way when they looked at the macro number at macroeconomic numbers. They're saying, look, unemployment's low, inflation has come down, everything's fine.
00:15:33.07
Speaker
But the voters were saying, like look, we were hit with two years of inflation and we just can't take these prices anymore. And they gave Donald Trump a chance. The problem that the Republicans have now is Trump with these tariffs and other policies. I mean, inflation has started to tick up again. i mean, we'll see if this is a long-term trend. But I think You know, the economy is one of those things you really can't spin your way out of it. I mean, people feel the economy every time you go to the grocery store, you see the prices. You cannot wish away high prices.
00:16:00.24
Speaker
I think Democrats learned that the hard way. And I think the Republicans might end up learning it the hard way as well. And maybe ah as another question I have about the the labor system, and I appreciate that. i think i think that's absolutely right. But I guess part of the reason I'm asking that is I keep seeing Trump doing things that seem to be undermining kind of fundamental ways in which know if we have a working democracy, right? So do you are you concerned by this change that it may...
00:16:29.41
Speaker
have a real impact on the ability for the vote, the average voter, Republican or Democrat, to understand objectively what the economy is doing? Or is it really just, you know, a small talking point that that they have, we you know, monthly, and it's not a big deal?
00:16:44.93
Speaker
I think one thing to keep in mind, and again, this is one of the lessons from 2024, you have to take – the average voter or the average person as opposed to the really highly engaged voter. And even before all this stuff with the Bureau Labor Statistics, I mean, they would do surveys and say, you know, what do you think the unemployment rate was in 2024? And most people would say like 10%. I mean, people just do not, most people are not looking at 8.30 on a Friday.
00:17:09.23
Speaker
What is the unemployment rate that the jobs report? I mean, and people are kind of going off vibes how they feel things are going and then also i mean the reality is the media environments change people get their information from different places they get them from this podcast they get them from right-wing podcasts and so those numbers are always going to be you know not always reported to people and so i think while i appreciate that there is concern about these things i think the reality is a lot of voters weren't necessarily paying attention to this before.
00:17:40.21
Speaker
And, you know, unfortunately, this is going to be one of those things that's going to be partisan. So even before these changes, Republicans, when there was a Democratic president, say would say, I don't believe the numbers. Now, even before these changes, a lot of Democrats would say, oh, I don't believe the numbers when they were were good for Trump. And now that they're bad for Trump, we're saying, yeah, these numbers are accurate. good So I think partisanship has fallen, has gone through everything. And so it's just the reality of where we are. So, I mean, I think overall,
00:18:07.85
Speaker
In terms of getting an accurate number, I think this somewhat undermines things. But I think that has been eroding for a long time on, you know, in terms of where people are getting information. Yeah. and And one thing that I noticed in one of your recent podcasts, yeah I think you referenced Bill Clinton's campaign or or one of his advisors campaign. It's about the economy, stupid.
00:18:29.51
Speaker
You know, one question I want to have in mind and maybe you can address it now, is it that simple? Is it, is all all of these cultural quote cultural issues a distraction from Democrats winning elections? Should we be focused purely on the economy or what kind of mixed would you suggest?
00:18:48.04
Speaker
You know, i think one thing that, was talked about a lot in 2024 was the difference between high propensity voters and low propensity voters. So low propensity voters are the voters who might not always show up typically more so on the presidential side.
00:19:01.88
Speaker
And then there's the high propensity voters who always show up. High propensity voters are more democratic these days and and they tend to to focus on things such as democracy or more abstract concepts Whereas the low propensity voter, which Trump did a really good job reaching those voters, they care a lot more about the economy because they tend to be lower income, less educated.
00:19:25.82
Speaker
And so I think the it's important for the Democrats to realize you know, your donors might care about certain things, your hardcore base might care about certain things. But, you know, the average voter who's maybe making 40,000 a year is trying to get by, is not watching, you know, the news every night.
00:19:43.15
Speaker
It's not their number one concern, what's going on in DC and what's this bill and that bill. They're just trying to pay the bills. Those people might have a different concern and you You can't forget those people because traditionally the base of the Democratic Party has been working class people.
00:19:56.14
Speaker
I still think there are a lot of working class people, particularly non-white working class people in the Democratic Party. But increasingly, the donor class, the people who kind of drive some of these conversations are more ah wealthier,
00:20:09.06
Speaker
college-educated voters. And so it's important for the Democrats not to lose track. you know there's There are important issues happening. There's important things we want to focus on. But at the end of the day, a lot of people, they're just trying to make ends meet. they're trying to pay the rent, they're trying to get their kids to school. And so it's important not to forget that aspect of politics as well.
00:20:28.01
Speaker
I appreciate that. That's a good. i appreciate that. And I was just thinking about an interview you had with the Cardinal editor, Yancey, I believe his name is.
00:20:40.99
Speaker
You asked him about the Medicaid cuts and how that's impacting particularly voters voters in southwest Virginia and the south side. But generally speaking, do you think – the Democrats' message that, hey, look, Medicaid is going to be cut. It's going to impact you. Do you think that's going to have a real impact for the vote, the elections coming up in November, or is it just too early for that to even be seen?
00:21:06.96
Speaker
I think it's a little bit early to be seen. I think that's part of the Republican strategy is they put the cuts to Medicaid a little bit later on, even after the midterms. I do think it's important for Democrats to not get super disillusioned with some parts of the country. So you'll see things like Southwest Virginia. It's like, it doesn't matter what we do. Those people always look for the Republicans.
00:21:25.77
Speaker
And, you know, we can emphasize this or that, but they're just kind of Republicans now. You know, obviously what Democrats, for example, with Southwest Virginia are never going to win Southwest Virginia anytime soon, but margins matter.
00:21:38.81
Speaker
and and I think it also just makes a difference when you try to go and explain what these bills are doing. Now it's hard. There's a media environment. There's people who are not super engaged in politics, but I do think it's important to try to at least how to touch on those concerns because if they hear a Democrat coming into, let's say Southwest Virginia, and you talk about rural hospitals, Medicaid,
00:22:00.45
Speaker
you know cuts to food stamps. I mean, if that's what they're hearing from the Democratic Party, they might not necessarily vote for that person, but they understand, okay, they're they're caring about some of these issues we care about. Because a lot of these people, what they hear, what their media environment is telling them is all the Democrats care about is trans issues and abortion and going after Trump. And that's the only thing they care about. They don't care about you.
00:22:23.51
Speaker
And they care about immigrants and they don't care about Americans. And that's kind of the message that these people get. But if you see a Democrat come up, come to your county and say, you know, I'm worried about this rural hospital, it might be get closed.
00:22:34.22
Speaker
People might think for a second, oh, maybe the Democrats are not exactly what I i thought they were. You know, and I don't know if I ever told you this. I actually grew up in Buchanan County. So Grundy, Virginia. yeah Yeah. So my my elementary school was Grundy, Virginia, P.V. Dennis Elementary.
00:22:54.74
Speaker
And um um I started off with Grundy High School and and we ended up moving. But and and now my current middle school is the actually the Appalachian School of law My dad was a physician out there, and he worked at Buchanan General Hospital.
00:23:08.71
Speaker
So for what it's worth for anybody watching this, I do think that an effort made by our elected officials to actually put boots on the ground – and look, I know the drive is a long drive.
00:23:21.74
Speaker
I get it. But you know if you're going to do the job, but i think it makes a lot of sense to just be seen there because, first of all, for what all they they're they're they're painted as on on TV, especially in the liberal media, I think most folks, Southwest Virginia, Grundy, same as here, they're just trying to live their lives they're just trying to get along. And I think if you're actually meeting people face to face and you actually have a discussion with them, they may not end up agreeing with you In fact, I don't think they'll ultimately be voting Democrat anytime soon. But the fact that
00:23:57.47
Speaker
We're even bringing up issues like Medicaid. Medicaid is a huge issue in that area. Drug addiction is a huge issue in that area. And so i think that I think that where we oftentimes kind of get lost in, you know, and and believe me, trans rights is important. I think that minority rights are important, but I do think framing it in an economic format to where Everybody can understand that, but also going and being seen there is so important. So anybody listening to this that has some power that's elected, it's a nice area.
00:24:29.40
Speaker
There's cool mountains if you want to go on a hike, go on camping for what it's worth, just from an old Grundy boy. But anyway, let's talk about the statewide elections.
00:24:40.71
Speaker
Governorship, Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General are up for election November. All House districts as well, right?
00:24:48.30
Speaker
Right. Just, yeah, can I think everybody sort of understands what the governor does. Can you give us a little idea of what the lieutenant governor's spot is and maybe a little bit about attorney general for non-lawyers?
00:25:00.00
Speaker
What are those positions? why they important? Sure. Sure. So I think Lieutenant Governor, I mean, most people think of it as kind of like the vice president, like if something happens to the governor, they step in. That's important. But I do think they more so than the vice president play an important part in overseeing the Virginia Senate. They can break ties in the Virginia Senate, which is a 40 seat body.
00:25:20.01
Speaker
But they also just generally are the presiding officer of the Virginia Senate. And you often see the Lieutenant Governor in the Virginia Senate guiding debate, making calls. So I do think while most people focus on the kind of being number two aspect of Lieutenant Governor. It does play important role in the Virginia Senate.
00:25:39.53
Speaker
And I did want to spend a time emphasizing the attorney general race because people, they often think about Virginia and they think about the governor's race. And governor's race is important, no doubt. But in terms of what's going on in D.C., the attorney general in many ways plays a more important role because attorney generals have the ability to sue the current administration when the current incumbent Republican Attorney General Jason Meares was facing the Biden administration. He would often sue the Biden administration. He joined lawsuits against the Biden administration.
00:26:09.19
Speaker
To my knowledge, he has not joined any lawsuit against the Trump administration. And obviously, if the Democratic nominee Jay Jones wins the attorney general race, he will start joining lawsuits and being more active on that front.
00:26:22.17
Speaker
And it's important because some of these lawsuits, especially now with certain Supreme Court decisions, if you are not a party to the lawsuit, if the judge does something, for example, an injunction, which means tells the federal government, you can't do this.
00:26:36.86
Speaker
If you are not a party to that lawsuit, that that injunction does not apply to that state. And so there have been examples where other blue states with democratic attorney generals have been able to get certain things stopped because the attorney generals in those states have sued the Trump administration.
00:26:52.34
Speaker
Whereas Virginia, we have not gotten that action. And so I think, yes, governor's race is important, and gets most of the attention. i do think both the LG and attorney general races are also important and and AG, especially given how much of the pushback Democrats have done to the Trump administration has come through the legal process.
00:27:11.13
Speaker
And it's interesting. First of all, I'm most fat. I mean, I think your lawyer as well, we're most fascinated just from a technical standpoint from the attorney general. It's it's he he or she is the lawyer for the Commonwealth of Virginia.
00:27:23.81
Speaker
holding the biggest law firm in Virginia, the attorney general's office. But this race is interesting from a most, a reality TV standpoint. I mean, you see,
00:27:35.70
Speaker
The strange behavior between Sears, Reed, and Mieris. Talk a little bit, for folks that are not aware, talk a little about the oddities in in their in that race so far and some of the complications between them, just as, I guess, people.
00:27:54.26
Speaker
Yeah, I'll talk about the Mir is sorry, the the Winston Earl Sears Mir is aspect first, because I think that often is overshadowed by everything that happened with John Reed. So I think both of them won here for governor.
00:28:07.46
Speaker
For various reasons, Mir has decided to give Earl Sears the opportunity and he ran for reelection. But I do think behind the scenes, there's a little bit of tension there just because when you know there There was a shadow primary for a while, and and there was clearly stuff going on behind the scenes. So I don't think they're super close necessarily.
00:28:25.12
Speaker
And then you have John Reed in the middle, and John Reed is just his own personality. He's doing his own thing. he is not necessarily having some sort of talking points that the Republicans are sending out around.
00:28:36.61
Speaker
And there was this whole controversy earlier in the year where Glenn Youngkin asked him to drop out of the ticket. I don't know what was really driving that. It's possible. Winston Merle Sears was also behind that because she didn't want to directly ask for it. So she asked Youngkin to do it, but clearly Winston Merle Sears and John Reed have some tension. They've only done one event together and you know, publicly they're going to say that, yes, we are unified and you should support the Republican ticket.
00:29:03.49
Speaker
But I do think behind the scenes, there's some tension And anytime you have that drama, it's not going to be great in terms of running a coordinated campaign because just a technical aspect of campaigns. I mean, there's literally something called the coordinated campaign where once the nominees are picked,
00:29:19.85
Speaker
There's supposed to be coordination. There's supposed to be at the higher levels, message discipline. And at the lower levels, like, you know, talking about all three people as a ticket. And I think that has not necessarily been there for the Republicans, whereas on the Democratic side, you know, my sense is things are pretty unified. So just another thing that Virginia Republicans are dealing with this year where they already have a lot of problems going on.
00:29:43.64
Speaker
Well, and what I found fascinating, Mieras, apparently he is a funding beast. I guess he is out raising and to be fair, he out raised Jay Jones, but it looks like he also out raised Sears herself.
00:29:57.50
Speaker
Have you seen any discussion about maybe some Monday morning quarterbacking about who should have been top of the ticket for the Republicans or is are they being pretty tightly tightly lipped about that?
00:30:10.82
Speaker
Yeah, i mean, I think there's a sense of Miyares is the strongest candidate. You know, what if he ran for governor instead of Earl Sears? i mean, that ship has kind of sailed. You know, the reality is i do think Miyares is going to do the best out of the three.
00:30:25.65
Speaker
There isn't that much ticket splitting. I talk about this. I think the Republicans are really trying to pin all their hopes on Miyares and they think maybe he could win while even... is I think that's relatively unlikely.
00:30:37.88
Speaker
Obviously he's probably trying to get the best performance he can just for his own sake. I don't know what his future is going to be. I mean, in theory he could run again for governor in 2029. So there's a lot of interesting stuff going on, but the reality is, you know, people like you and me know about all this stuff. Most people are just following the governor's race.
00:30:55.55
Speaker
So I think that's the challenge we're republican're going to have is the, the, uh, Attorney General Race is important, but most people just vote straight ticket. And I just don't see Miara as being able to outrun Earl Sears by that much at the top of the ticket, even though he has the money, money helps. You're going to run some ads, but most people are not going to be splitting their tickets. So I think that's the challenge Miara has.
00:31:18.89
Speaker
yeah And from a technical standpoint, it looks like he has like $7 million dollars on hand, whereas like Jay Jones only has like 1.5 or something. Is that a reflection of Mieros just waiting to spend money? What's what's going on there? And how how does the money flow in a cape campaign like that?
00:31:35.18
Speaker
Yeah, so I posted about this because there was an article about ticket splitting. And I think one thing to keep in mind with the Attorney General race is Jay Jones just came out of a primary that was very competitive at the end. He had to spend a lot of money running ads.
00:31:47.81
Speaker
And while, you know, we often just look at the numbers and say, oh, well, he doesn't have much money left. I mean, he didn't get nothing out of that. Those those ads were running across Virginia.
00:31:58.63
Speaker
They were reaching Republicans, independents, Democrats, because that's how it works. And for the most part, Jay himself was running positive ads like about his bio. So it definitely helped his name ID.
00:32:09.67
Speaker
I don't think it was like lighting all that money on fire because it's going to help him for the general election. So it's important to keep in mind that Jay has so far he's been spending more than Miyares. I mean, Miyares is starting to spend his money, but just objectively, Jay Jones has spent more than Miyares so far this year in Virginia.
00:32:26.09
Speaker
And I'm sure he's starting to fundraise more. Typically, when you become the nominee, there's some donors who are sitting on the sidelines waiting for the nominees. So I think he'll get some money out of that. And yeah, I mean, obviously, it helps me or as if he has a little bit more money. But if at the top of the ticket, Spamberger has like 10 million more than Sears, and she's going to be spending that in the fall.
00:32:46.84
Speaker
At some point, I mean, the net Democratic spending is going to be more than the net Republican spending. And, you know, that specific race, again, how many people are really going to split their tickets? You know, my theory is it's going to be two three percent on the best possible scenario. It's going to be five percent for Millares.
00:33:02.49
Speaker
And, you know, if Spanberger is winning by more than five percent, you know, it just doesn't really matter how much Millares is spending.
00:33:09.16
Speaker
You know, one of the themes that that we hear nowadays is at least at the in the federal level is like, Sure, money matters, but it's not everything. I mean, you saw Musk spend all the money in, I forgot what state it was, to try to win the Supreme Court election.
00:33:24.28
Speaker
Do you think at the state level, the importance of money is still as important as it used to be? Or is that starting to see a dampening effect as you go down to local races, state and local
00:33:34.67
Speaker
You know, I think money is one of those things where you need a certain amount to be able to be committed. You cannot be raising you know hundreds of dollars, which some of these House Elements candidates on the Republican side have raised a few hundred dollars. I mean that is not going to work. You need ah minimum amount to run a competent campaign. You need a minimum amount to run some ads so people know who you are.
00:33:55.64
Speaker
They know your name ID. But I think one thing Democrats have to start learning and frankly don't. Trump did this well in 2024. And I think Mom Donnie in New York did it well this year. You can get so much free social media presence, just viral videos, viral posts, trying to just get your content in front of people's eyeballs for free. And so while, yes, it's important to fundraise, it's important to do traditional ads.
00:34:20.51
Speaker
I mean, it doesn't cost you a whole lot to put out a video, try to reach people that way. And so while, you know, I think the Democrats it's important to do the traditional stuff. I think one thing they can learn from 2024 and do a better job at is trying to reach more voters through viral videos, through free advertisement, basically.
00:34:38.43
Speaker
And it's just something that can overcome some of the traditional money advantage that maybe be Republicans had through these super PACs and other ways. and And you saw that with Trump. I mean, Trump didn't raise as much as Harris raised, but he, I would say probably reached more people just through all this, you know, podcast and all the stuff he did.
00:34:58.66
Speaker
So it's an important lesson. Money's still important, but it's not everything in in the election. Yeah. And I will say if for You know, you're hearing and obviously I think that the Republicans are going to try to tie every Democrat to Mamdani. Apparently now we're all running for the mayor's race in in New York.
00:35:15.86
Speaker
But I would encourage folks that are interested in politics, interested running for office. And clearly people are working campaigns here in Virginia to take some time to to watch his content. I mean,
00:35:27.72
Speaker
Whether or not you agree with his policies, I think a lot of it was just authentic discussions with voters in a kind of an entertaining way. And he's he's he's an entertaining guy. I mean, he just he just got a good personality.
00:35:39.91
Speaker
Again, you don't have to agree with his politics. So I do think it makes a lot of sense to to learn where you can. And for what it's worth, also Trump, too. I mean, you know he's a media master. You can...
00:35:51.16
Speaker
I think we can all agree, unfortunately, on that. Let's talk about some delegate races. And I know that obviously all 100 up for for reelection.
00:36:02.32
Speaker
You have identified some pretty important races, one here in Northern Virginia, best I could tell, House of Delegate race number 30. Talk about that. Tell me about what you're seeing there. What do we need to know? And and what do you think would be the big issues?
00:36:17.28
Speaker
Yeah, so there's a few Republican seats left in Northern Virginia because after Trump won in 2017, sorry, in 2016, there were the Virginia elections in 2017, and that pretty much wiped out most of the Virginia, Northern Virginia Republicans. There's a few districts left, and House District 30 is interesting because it's in Western Loudoun, traditionally a Republican seat.
00:36:37.50
Speaker
And I think one of the big questions, again, the name of the podcast was Federal Fallout, is to try to figure out how much of what's going on in DC is going to impact not just to the state overall, but these individual races, specifically races in Northern Virginia and other parts of Virginia where very tied to the federal government. So this district has a decent amount of federal workers, I imagine, has a good amount of federal contractors, specifically with the military side of things.
00:37:02.38
Speaker
And so if we're really seeing a big backlash where voters are just, you know traditionally than Republicans, but they just say like, look, my personally, my pocket whats pocketbook has been hurt by this. I cannot keep doing this.
00:37:13.56
Speaker
I think it'll be an interesting race. And the Democrat running John McAuliffe, younger guy, has raised a decent amount of money. So I think In a lot of these districts, Democrats have gotten good candidates because obviously when the environment looks better for you, you're going to be able to recruit better candidates.
00:37:29.08
Speaker
They got younger candidates in many of these districts. So I think there's an opportunity if there really is a blue wave for a new generation of leadership to could be coming up in Virginia. And that's often what happens when you have these wave elections. You kind of get to replenish the ranks with some of these people. So we'll see if that happens in House District 30 in Western Lounge.
00:37:46.80
Speaker
Yeah, and and John McCullough's running against, I don't know if it's Jerry or Gary Higgins. is it How do you pronounce his first name? Gary. Gary. Gary Higgins. Maybe G-E-A-R-Y, I believe.
00:38:00.84
Speaker
how is what are you What is he doing to to to weave that needle? or Is he going full on Trump, or what what is what is his but policy position? Yeah, I mean, Higgins is an interesting guy in the sense of he's only been a delegate since a couple years ago, but he's been around Loudoun a long time. I think he was on the Loudoun County Board of Supervisors. I think he's generally known for being more of a right-wing type guy. I don't think he's really trying to really moderate at all.
00:38:29.45
Speaker
In some of these races, you know these Republicans are just going to run their race, hope their base shows up, and you know we'll see. i think it worked for him in 2023 even though he you got a serious challenger or serious Democrat running against him.
00:38:46.52
Speaker
I think the the thing that might be hard for these Republicans is if you have these traditionally Republican voters who either personally have been affected or they just don't like what they're seeing in D.C.
00:39:00.24
Speaker
start turning on the Republicans, that is where they could really be in a danger zone. And, you know, i think there have been a few, there are some delegate, Republican delegates who are more moderate, I would say, or at least try to present themselves as more moderate. But Higgins is definitely one that just,
00:39:15.49
Speaker
you know He's running his race, and he's gonna he's going to find out the chips will will fall where they ah ah will in November. And just out of curiosity, I'm trying to see how far east does delt District 30 go? Does it go the all the way to Leesburg? or or Yeah, it actually doesn't include Leesburg. It's past Leesburg. So it's it's really, I think it's called like the Loudoun Valley. So it's right before the Shenandoah Valley starts.
00:39:40.02
Speaker
And it's, you know, it's an interesting area. So traditionally, it's been a more rural area, more Republican area. I think there's been increasing suburbanization, particularly in the little knob that you see on the screen poking out of the district.
00:39:55.91
Speaker
And, if you know, it also has... deeper amount of Yeah, exactly. more More suburbanization, more houses being built there. It also has like a decent amount of wealthier people. if people go out for wine wineries and stuff, it's winery country, horse country, interesting type district. But then you also have you know more working class rural people who tend to be more Republican. so I think it's going to be really i think it's gonna be tight. I, ah ah you know, it's one of those districts.
00:40:21.36
Speaker
I think Chaz Nadikom had his projection. He said it's basically going to be, you know, 50 50 coin flip who's going to win it. And, you know, we'll see if if it's one of those districts where federal fallout is what makes the difference in terms of maybe giving the Democrats the pickup in this seat.
00:40:36.98
Speaker
Yeah, and and by the way, folks, if you're looking if you're watching this on YouTube, I pulled up VPAP. If you don't know what VPAP is, VPAP.org is an amazing, amazing resource for Virginia politics. You can find your local representative there, but you can also find super interesting issues.
00:40:52.51
Speaker
uh they they created uh maps post 2021 redistricting so that's what i'm looking at here i'll i'll put it in the show notes but just looking here and the reason i ask is you know i go to loud and leesburg all the time for court i was a public defender out there so and people northern of virginia know it well as you mentioned they go out for wine country and all that kind of stuff so it's just entering it's interesting to see where that line is drawn and i think you're right that You know, the the the bluishness is is going further left, which, again, for us Democrats is, or for me, Democrat, that's a good thing.
00:41:24.92
Speaker
it's I haven't read much about District 21. You're saying it's purple. Do you know a whole lot about that district? So that's the district where I was kind of earlier making fun of the Republican candidate. So he literally, in the last reporting quarter, like raised like $150. Like literally raised $150. And i think that district...
00:41:44.28
Speaker
So the Democrat is incumbent Josh Thomas. oh Republican candidate, honestly, I've almost I think his name slips my mind because, you know, to be honest, it's just not really being that serious of a candidate.
00:41:59.64
Speaker
And I think that district shows the Republican problems because it was the closest district in terms of the Democratic seat in 2023. And it was the closest Democratic held seat in 2024 in terms of the Harris margin.
00:42:11.30
Speaker
But the Republican candidate raised one hundred fifty dollars. And but Josh Thomas. i just the distract um um yeah yeah I guess the fact that you can't remember his name probably proves that money does matter in politics. Yeah.
00:42:24.30
Speaker
You mentioned that there was other Northern Virginia districts that were former Republican or least Republican or or leaning that way. Is there any other Northern Virginia districts we should be looking at as far as interesting races?
00:42:36.28
Speaker
Yeah, so there's two There's House District 22, which is in middle Prince William County. The Republican incumbents in Lovejoy and the Democratic nominee is former delegate Elizabeth Guzman.
00:42:46.53
Speaker
And that is, I think Harris very slightly carried the district, but again, is a traditionally Republican seat in middle Prince William County. the The red one that you see right there. And I think, you know, it's similar story as House District 30. Is there going to be federal fallout? Is that going to cause the Republicans to lose ground in Northern Virginia?
00:43:09.54
Speaker
And then there's another district ah in Stafford that is House District 64, I believe. And that is has a Republican incumbent.
00:43:20.08
Speaker
And the Democratic nominee is Stacey Carroll. So, you know, I think that that's showing you the 2021 number. I wouldn't focus too much on 2021, because I just thought that was like- Sorry, I would i was just using it in reference. Yeah, yeah, yeah, no. And for people's context, I think Trump won that district by about two points.
00:43:39.38
Speaker
And i think it's going to be curious to think about, you know, these districts, typically Republicans do better in the state elections than in the presidential election. So when you see a Trump plus two district,
00:43:52.51
Speaker
Traditionally, you would think, OK, that'd be hard for Democrats to win that district because Democrats do better in federal elections as opposed to the state elections. But I do think, again, federal fallout, that district, middle staffer, lot of federal employees, people have impacted.
00:44:07.02
Speaker
Does it get to the point where some Trump voters are starting to flip? Because if you start seeing Trump people vote for the Democrats in 2025, I mean, that's real danger zone for the Republicans. And that's where these these three three districts in Northern Virginia could flip, because it's not just like Democrats are getting out their base. They're starting to flip people.
00:44:26.28
Speaker
And that's like really anytime you start flipping people, that's where you get into landslide or or blue wave territory. okay Let's talk about, we'll move away from Northern Virginia, House District 97. And I know you had Tim Anderson on.
00:44:41.10
Speaker
Tell me a little about him versus Michael Fagans. And what what should we looking at there?
00:44:46.76
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, I had Tim Anderson on. He's a Republican. It was interesting to have him get his perspective. I mean, he's certainly like, He's a very competent guy. He's a lawyer. He speaks well. I think he's trying to present himself as somewhat more of a moderate Republican.
00:44:59.32
Speaker
you know Traditionally, that would be working well in Virginia Beach. I think the the problem he's going to have, and we'll see if he's able to overcome it, is just the environment. And is this the year where he might be able to win a district like that, especially when Hampton Roads has a little bit of a different type of impact, but still the military is probably feeling some impact by what's going on in D.C.
00:45:20.74
Speaker
And I think, you know, he won originally in 2021 during the red wave when Youngkin came in. I think if there's a red wave this year, he's going to win. It's just s not looking like there's going to be a red wave. And I think that's a challenge he's going to face. But I would say of the Republicans challenging an incumbent Democrat, he's probably going the most confident one. And we'll see. i wouldn't be surprised if it's still relatively close, even if Michael Figgins is able to hold it out the incumbent Democrat.
00:45:48.51
Speaker
Yeah, I will tell you, you got me interested in him. So I started following him on social media and he is a prolific poster. He speaks, especially on your podcast. I was like, oh this sounds...
00:46:00.11
Speaker
pretty moderate and then I'm watching his feed and I'm like, oh, okay. Yeah. but I will say the fact that he has that social media and he came on not podcast again, it's getting all this free media. Like you may not agree with everything he's saying, but it's getting your message out in front of people. I think that's smart.
00:46:17.76
Speaker
yeah Frankly, I think more candidates on both sides should be doing that. But again, I think the environment is the main problem he's going to be facing. Yeah, and i and not that he's going to watch this, but if he does, I'm glad he went on. And I think I would encourage Democratic candidates to be on social media, on podcasts, you know, so long as it's not somebody that's just like so off the rails that it's, you know, but if you have legitimate candidates,
00:46:41.42
Speaker
opportunity on both sides. You should be getting getting your voice out, if nothing else, to be challenged on your positions and be able to hold your arguments better for when you're challenged, when it matters. Because a lot of times, you social media you know if you're on a right-wing podcast, they're probably not voting for you anyway. So so I'm um'm glad he did that. And he he seems he made he was making some good technical arguments that I was like, oh, that that's an interesting way to put it. I could tell he's probably a good litigator so for what that's worth.
00:47:08.61
Speaker
Yeah. ah So So anyway, delegate, sorry, House Delegates 41. And again, this is the one you talked to Dwayne Yancey on, but tell us about that.
00:47:18.69
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, this one, and, you know I know if there's time, we'll get into redistricting. This is the one where I think the special masters, when they drew the lines in Virginia, just, I don't know what they were thinking. So this district, frankly, should be Democratic leaning because you have Montgomery County in Southwest Virginia The district includes Blacksburg, which is where Virginia Tech is located, but it doesn't include any of the other towns around Blacksburg. So there's Christiansburg, which is very close to Blacksburg, and it doesn't include Radford, which is similar to Blacksburg, which is a college town.
00:47:48.60
Speaker
And it's just it's a pretty crazy district because you have basically the college town of Blacksburg and then some rural areas around it that are super red. And so. it's a 50-50 district because Blacksburg's blue, the rural areas are red.
00:48:01.17
Speaker
i think that was probably done intentionally. The Democrats have a repeat candidate with Lily Franklin. She got really close in 2023. She only lost by 183 votes.
00:48:11.68
Speaker
She's a younger candidate, I think really competent candidate. She knows she needs to get out Virginia Tech students to win that race. She's working on that. And so it's going to be really interesting to see you know, is this district just drawn in a way that is not possible for the Democrats to win? Because I think if there's a year the Democrats are going to win this district, it's probably this year.
00:48:32.25
Speaker
And so if I had to guess... you know, it's going to be close. And the question just becomes, can Lily Franklin get out enough students to vote order to win? Or is the district just drawn in that way where there's just too many rural areas? It doesn't matter how many people end up showing up at Virginia Tech to with it that she won't be able to win.
00:48:53.31
Speaker
Again, it's probably going to take a while to figure out who's going to win on election night and election week because, their same day registration in Virginia, have to wait for those. So long story short, very interesting race, really the only competitive race in Southwest Virginia. And I think it's it's going to come down to the wire.
00:49:09.68
Speaker
Yeah. And I should have looked this up when you're talking about Franklin losing by just a few hundred votes, essentially. That was under the old maps, right? That wasn't the new maps? No, it was it was the current map. It was the current current map. Okay.
00:49:23.16
Speaker
So, I mean, yeah I mean, I would think that if it's that close, then, I mean, it's it's within and earshot, right? So it's not like it's it's virtually impossible. i think it's real possibility, right?
00:49:36.47
Speaker
Yeah, I mean, I don't – I think actually Chaz Nuttycomb has Lily Franklin favored right now. Oh, okay. It's hard for me to know who's favored. I think it's at a minimum a 50-50 district in this environment.
00:49:47.88
Speaker
So I do think it's going to be super interesting to see who who ends up on top. I think – the The problem Lily Franklin has is college students are notoriously difficult to get out to vote. So, yeah you know, you can't say she's going to win 100 percent because theoretically, if college students are asleep, they don't show up. She's not going to win.
00:50:06.22
Speaker
And so it's not like these other districts where you kind of know who's already going to show up. It's just it all comes down to do this college kids show up. I think for this year, this environment, Svanberger at the top of the ticket. I think she has a better shot than she did in 2023. And as you noted, even in 2023, she only lost by 183 votes.
00:50:25.03
Speaker
And I feel like maybe I'm wrong, but I feel like especially what's happening with Virginia colleges and the Trump administration actively targeting colleges that, you know, I'm sure kids at Tech have friends at George Mason and UVA.
00:50:41.26
Speaker
i would hope that they're more activated this year than previous years. But I guess we just don't know. So but that's also what makes Virginia politics interesting. There's no real way of knowing until you know.
00:50:53.62
Speaker
I don't know. So that's a good transition, actually, I think, to to redistricting. and and And I'll let you, because part of this thought was to maybe do a cross episode to where you could post it on yours as well and ask me questions yeah at some point if you want to ask me questions. But um let me ask you this question.
00:51:12.88
Speaker
and And we were talking about it offline, but and And you can ask me the same, but did Virginia mess up by passing the redistricting recommissioned redistricting commission, given the context of what's happening?
00:51:28.71
Speaker
We're seeing Trump essentially asking Texas to find him five more seats. Are we getting ready to get an arms race? We shouldn't be. I think it all depends on who who you are and your own political political beliefs. So if you were a Republican, you are very happy the redistricting amendment passed because that means the Democrats could not gerrymander Virginia either 2021 likely that they're gonna in 2026.
00:51:52.09
Speaker
So Republicans are happy redistricting amendment passed. I think if you're a single issue voter or your number one concern is gerrymandering and like you really hate gerrymandering and you really don't want gerrymandering to happen, I think you're happy the redistricting commission was passed.
00:52:05.72
Speaker
I think the but group of voters that are more tricky are Democrats because I think, and hardcore Democrats who, you know, their number one worry are Trump and the Republicans.
00:52:17.48
Speaker
The problem with the redistricting commission, if you are in that boat, is it's tied the hands of Virginia Democrats. They can't do anything. So if Texas redistricts, if Indiana redistricts, if Missouri redistricts, if Florida redistricts, like every Republican state redistricts, Virginia just can't do it mid-decade. It's just unconstitutional under the Virginia Constitution. So I think it's it's a challenge when you are, I would say the Democrats more so try to hold themselves up as the party of good government and trying to do the right thing and trying to be pro-democracy.
00:52:51.39
Speaker
And I think sometimes that comes out of back to bite you because the people who were Democrats who supported the redistricting amendment, I think they said, look, we can all agree gerrymandering bad, or at least the Democrats can to agree gerrymandering is bad.
00:53:02.55
Speaker
We have to get this done in Virginia because that's we control Virginia and that's our opportunity to do it. I think against it said, yes, gerrymandering is bad, but we can't unilaterally disarm because we're we're basically fighting with one of our hands behind our back and the Republicans are gonna go whole hog on this redistricting thing and the gerrymandering thing. So ultimately, i mean, I am more of the school of it happened. I mean, there's nothing we can do about it now.
00:53:27.71
Speaker
The one thing I will point out is theoretically, if Democrats win this year in Virginia, they can start the process to put a new amendment on the map on the ballot in 2028 in Virginia to change the redistricting process.
00:53:38.96
Speaker
I'm not necessarily advocating for a full repeal of the amendment, but I did want to ask you, i mean, in my opinion, the current redistricting commission, the way it it was set up in Virginia was kind of crazy and it was bound to fail. And, you know, you don't often talk about it, but you were on the redistricting commission.
00:53:56.90
Speaker
i would listen to those commission hearings, probably one of the few people in Virginia who actually listened. And, you know, you were, I would describe it as a voice of reason, a voice of rationality, trying to do the right thing.
00:54:08.60
Speaker
And it just, most the time was shut down by the Republicans. And that was what I was seeing. you know From your vantage point, i mean what was that experience like, and do you you think the – if it shouldn't be fully repealed, do you think the commission structure should be changed?
00:54:25.08
Speaker
Well, so first of all, I went into the commission as a lawyer thinking that this was going to be a really interesting academic discussion of Voting Rights Act, of map drawing, of how do we make sure that one person equals one vote.
00:54:42.55
Speaker
I went in there. Some would say naively. and i and And I will tell you, i was one of the, I think, three people that ended up walking out during the sessions of drawing the House maps and with the intention of breaking quorum because it was clear to me that the Supreme Court was a better place to draw the maps than the commission itself.
00:55:06.04
Speaker
As I sit here today, I'm kind of struggling because you know when when I went in and and I was actually trying to think if I actually voted for the the amendment or not. I think I voted for it.
00:55:16.98
Speaker
okay I'm kind of blacking it out because that whole experience was months long. It was during COVID. i would I just started a law firm. i i I think my wife was pregnant during part of it.
00:55:29.15
Speaker
and it was just just And there was a lot of family stuff going on. It was just thinking about it brings back PTSD a little bit. and So I think I voted for it, and and I think as I'm going through it, I'm believing in it, but as I'm seeing what's happening, I'm starting less to believe in it.
00:55:46.04
Speaker
And now on the back end, and I'm seeing what's happening in Texas, what's happening apparently in Ohio as well, in Florida, i do I do have very serious concerns about did we make a mistake, which I acknowledge we may have very well made a mistake.
00:56:02.10
Speaker
Do I think that we can change the structure internally to fix it? I don't know, but a few things that I definitely would want, number one, and this may not even matter, But I would want to make sure that when we go as citizen commissioners, but also with the delegates, because half commission citizens, half delegates, elected officials, there needs to be an introduction swearing in where you're putting your hand on whatever book you believe or whatever statute or constitution where you're saying that you're going to give it all.
00:56:33.49
Speaker
with the effort of having one person, one vote, and to to legitimately end gerrymandering, or however fancy way you want to say that. Because I don't recall us ever swearing to God or anybody else that we would make a true effort. And I think that was foundationally an issue. Again, I don't know that it matters or not.
00:56:52.29
Speaker
Number two, there needs to be things that the commission is not doing. So working on how things are advertised and getting the word out and marketing for how the commission is actually going to be educating the public, that should be done not by the commission itself but set up by the government.
00:57:11.09
Speaker
So that is a unified way of making sure that, you know, flyers are handed out in in local and local libraries, that there's social media advertising and all that kind of stuff, because we were working on those integral details, which it just seemed like inefficient, and we had no clue we were doing. there There are people that should be hired to do that rather than us being the ones to try to – we even had to try to essentially find marketers or whoever consultants to then hire. I mean, that was taking the eye off the ball that we had no clue.
00:57:41.85
Speaker
we need to have a system where there's not one one, not two sets of attorneys and not two sets of map drawers. Because as soon as that happened, it was clear to me that this was gonna be a litigation exercise and not a, you know, a let's work together exercise.
00:57:58.81
Speaker
I think that was the fatal flaw of anything else. is As soon as you have two sets of lawyers and two sets of map drawers, it becomes advocacy by each side.
00:58:09.69
Speaker
And for anybody that cares to go back, I think there's videos on the commission, all that kind of stuff. I mean, I would get into arguments with the Republican a lawyer about like what the Voting Rights Act said rather than I would ask him to kind of educate me. But it was clear to me and with respect to him, he was a great lawyer, very smart guy, good at his job.
00:58:27.88
Speaker
But it was clear to me that he had an in in mind and was advocating for that in rather than educating me. And, you know. I'm not a great lawyer. I'm good enough lawyer to kind of see what's happening. There's not a lot of there wasn't all lawyers on that on that commission, both Republican or Democrat.
00:58:44.53
Speaker
It's hard to understand what's happening when somebody's advocating rather than. making it sound like they're educating. And that that to me is super frustrating. There was also, and I'm not even saying this was all Republicans. I think some Democrats did this as well. there There's a requirement that you not have communication with people not on the commission outside of the commission. And there were very specific rules about that.
00:59:07.37
Speaker
And it seemed clear to me that there was communications happening. that were that that were you used to like set structural things. like For instance, and and i like I ended up liking our our chairs that ran the commission. They ended up essentially agreeing one Republican, one Democrat.
00:59:24.38
Speaker
I think Greta Harris was on our side and Babichenko, who's now, I think it's CA down in Henrico, was on on the Republican side. But it was clear to me they'd already agreed to that before we were even on the commission or actually sitting there. And so Are these fatal flaws that mean that need to get rid of it all the way and do a full appeal?
00:59:44.41
Speaker
I don't know. i think... I'm concerned, but then I back up and, and then I was listening to a podcast. Uh, the bulwark has really interesting guys there.
00:59:55.27
Speaker
I think they were former Republicans and now they're just anti-Trump and they were talking about the redistricting commissions and and all that. And, the concern is if you get rid of redistricting commissions that you have an arms race and then you only have the most,
01:00:12.86
Speaker
partisan people winning elections, both Republican and Democrat, on both sides. And the speaker talked about Mike Johnson's example. he's in a state where he never had to have anybody to run against in both the state legislature and now in Congress or the Senate, the heat, sorry, Congress.
01:00:31.79
Speaker
He's never really been in a district where he's actually had to have competition because of redistricting. And that's the reason you can see him going so far to the right that no matter what he does, he doesn't really have anybody answer to.
01:00:43.14
Speaker
And, you know, I don't know if I've answered the question. I think I've probably raised more mind and more with questions in my own mind than anything. I probably spend a therapist about it. But, you know, don't know. Well, first, i think you certainly make a pitch for anyone who wants to be a citizen commissioner in 2031. No, I'm joking. I'm done.
01:01:03.02
Speaker
Well, so yeah I think you raised a lot of interesting points. I agree with all of that based on my observation of the redistricting commission. I think the big question, should it be repealed, should not be repealed, is kind of irrelevant because, one, I don't think the Democrats have the stomach to do that. And I think, two, it's the voters are never going to go for a full repeal and go back to old school.
01:01:21.71
Speaker
you know so This commission was – almost the amendment was almost ratified by two thirds of the voters. I think the thing that, you know, you as a former commissioner, I think the democratic legislatures, if they win this year in Virginia, they want to think about 2028, what are you going to do to put something that's a little bit better? Because some of the things you talked about, i mean, you cannot have a commission that has half Republicans, half Democrats and requires a a super majority and is there's no tiebreaker. I mean, that's never going to work.
01:01:52.28
Speaker
And maybe that's fine. Maybe we just want the Virginia Supreme Court to drop the maps again in 2031. But like the structure of the commission is just not going to work. I mean, I think the only way I could see it working potentially is if if in 2031 people sit down and say, like, look, we're never going to agree to new maps.
01:02:10.52
Speaker
Let's just tinker with the old maps and change the population. I think that's the only way it could work under the current structure. Otherwise, you have to change it. But, you know, the the problem I would say is Democrats approach this problem for the most part as we got to fix gerrymandering. we got to fix the problem.
01:02:28.58
Speaker
howard How do we do that? There's debates about that. I think Republicans approach this as how do we maximize their advantage? And I saw that on the redistricting commission where I think the Democratic commissioners were trying to figure out how do we come up with a compromise map that everyone can live with and that is a fair map.
01:02:44.41
Speaker
I think Republican people, for the most part, think there were people of good faith, but i think in their mind, they're like, how do I maximize the advantage from my side? And, you know, you could say that's politics. That's how people are supposed to approach things. But this is the fundamental mismatch. And I don't know how you fix it other than a nationwide fix to gerrymandering, which I think makes sense. It's just how are you actually going to get that passed? So anyways, a lot of stuff going on.
01:03:07.82
Speaker
I think in the short term, Virginia can't change its constitution, but I do think maybe there could be some long-term thinking about the 2028 amendment. Yeah, and I will say that the Supreme Court thing.
01:03:19.23
Speaker
And my biggest concern, and and it always was even before it got passed, is – if redistricting becomes such a big issue, which it looks like it is, that our Supreme Court becomes even that more political. Right now, you know i have feelings about whether it's conservative leaning or democratic leaning, all that kind of stuff, but it's more grounded in factual opinions and and actual opinions in case law about cases I'm dealing with, not pure politics.
01:03:46.47
Speaker
I think as we become more polarized, I do worry that Republicans are gonna realize that, oh, we need to focus on getting more people picked to the Virginia Supreme Court purely for political reasons, which I don't think is happening right now. But I don't know.
01:04:00.88
Speaker
worries. Let me ask you this as I'm sitting here thinking. what One alternative could be, and maybe this defeats the whole purpose, is maybe you have an extra seat on the commission and whoever wins that last year gets an extra seat and is a tiebreaker.
01:04:17.39
Speaker
Maybe that's not workable and maybe that defeats the purpose. But well what do you think about something? Yeah, I mean, i I think you definitely need a tiebreaker. Typically in other states you have, let's say, five Republicans, five Democrats, and then you have five independents who are not associated with either party.
01:04:31.12
Speaker
and And so – And the problem there is, you know, Republicans complain, like in California, you can gain the commission and put on people who are really Democrats, independents. So you're never going to have this perfect structure, but you cannot have a commission that is 50-50 either party.
Speaker
And you cannot have a commission that requires a supermajority if you're really trying to get anything done, because that's just never going happen. And I guess the last thing I should say is,
Speaker
your point to the Virginia Supreme Court. i mean, I do think the Virginia Supreme Court thankfully is not political. I think it's little c conservative from a legal standpoint, but it's not politically conservative. And I think that saved redistricting in 2021. You know, the maps, I have my quibbles with them, but I don't think it was a total disaster. I think, you know, as you know, the the problem is 20,
01:05:15.55
Speaker
31 or in the future, the Virginia Supreme Court starts to get more you you know political. what What does that mean for the redistricting commission? so And by the way, I did not mean for anybody considering applying for the redistricting commission to discourage them.
01:05:30.100
Speaker
Again, i think maybe I just didn't have the temperament, but I do think that the foundational reason why Democrats chose to approve it I do support, but again, like anything in practice, does it does it change things? I don't know and and all that.
01:05:47.60
Speaker
But let me see. Can I ask you one question and you can say going to plead the fifth on it? Sure.
01:05:58.01
Speaker
The Epstein files, do they matter? Does anybody, do you see it having any impact
01:06:04.94
Speaker
Does it matter to Trump? The Epstein files are funny because I think Democrats for a long time kind of viewed it as this conspiracy and like, why would anyone care about this? I think there are a group of voters out there who...
01:06:18.50
Speaker
they care about the Epstein files in the sense of it shows who is really focused on fighting for average Americans. And I think Trump actually never personally talked a lot about the Epstein files. It was a lot of his people.
01:06:31.90
Speaker
And so there's this whole thing about Trump is more open. He's going to release the Epstein files. So I think there is this group of voters where it's a really important issue. And to the fact that the Democrats are pushing him on it, it's more about telling those voters like, look, Trump might not be behind you, might be more behind you, and we might be fighting more for the little guy, the people who – the powerful people are being protected.
01:06:55.03
Speaker
And you know I'm not pretending this is 50 percent of the yeah electorate, but if it's like one, two percent – I mean some of these districts, some of these states, I mean small swings can make a big difference. So I think – and anytime you have an issue that is starting to divide a party, I mean it's good to push on that if you're the opposition and because – I think there's some hardcore Trump people who just don't care about obscene. I mean, they don't know why it's being talked about because Trump said it's over.
01:07:21.33
Speaker
And then there are these soft MAGA people, I would say, who supported Trump, but they are not necessarily hardcore Trumpers who really do care about this issue. And it's interesting. It's interesting. I don't know if it will lead to them voting for Democrats, but I think – It could you could see them potentially sit out future elections. You could see them vote third party because they're disillusioned with the Republicans.
01:07:42.10
Speaker
So I do think it matters. You know, we'll see what ends up happening. I'm not pretending like this is going to be the issue that decides the Virginia election. But I do think in 2026, some of these seats are going to come down to a few hundred votes here and there.
01:07:53.81
Speaker
And an issue like this could matter in, you know, the midterms. Hmm. Well, look, and I appreciate that, and and and I've said this before for anybody cared to listen.
01:08:04.69
Speaker
i i do think that Democrats should be pushing to listen to what victims are saying. Do they want the reports released? Yeah. Or not. I mean, if they don't, then I understand that. But I just I'm seeing a lot of pushback from my conservative friends saying, oh, well, Democrats just they're just using this. They don't actually care about victims. And I just don't agree with that. And obviously, why have I personally have concern about Trump.
01:08:30.12
Speaker
I don't know if he's on the list or not. I'm kind of skeptical. But as he's refusing to release it, and now you see all these weird behaviors with Maxwell. I don't know. I don't know. I think that we need to keep hammering there and, and, and for, for victims specifically.
Speaker
if you start hearing them coming out and big numbers saying they don't want to release, then I'd listen to that as well. But anyway, Sam, look, I appreciate you taking the time. there anything else you wanted to say that we didn't get into?
Speaker
We've been on it for about an hour 15. So I don't want to take any more time. than No, no. I appreciate you having me on. I thought it was an interesting discussion. You know, Obviously, feel free to listen to my podcast as well, Federal Fallout, if anyone is interested in this stuff.
Speaker
Yeah, and like again, I'll put it in the show notes. I'll put a link to it in the show notes. Sam is a brilliant dude. i keep telling you, you need to charge for what you're doing. so But keep up the good work, man. It's it's a public service to us all, and and really appreciate the time, okay?
Speaker
Thanks. Thanks so much for having me. Thanks, man
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit samshirazi.substack.com
