Hi everyone, I’m Sam Shirazi and this is Federal Fall Out the 2025 Virginia elections.

This episode we will have Joe Szymanski.

He is going to help walk us through perhaps the Republican reaction to what happened in Virginia, maybe lessons they can learn and things that could potentially change for them ahead of the midterms, because obviously both parties are going to be trying to figure out what they can do differently or the same to to do as best as possible or during during the midterms. Joe, I follow you on social media. I always appreciate your takes. I think you’re pretty objective and you’re pretty realistic in your assessment. So it’s good to have you on.

00:38.35

Joe

I appreciate it, Sam. Thank you very much for having me back.

00:40.63

Sam Shirazi

Yeah. So, I mean, to begin, i think, you know, whenever there’s an election like this, the party that loses, there’s kind of soul searching and kind of questioning of what happened. You know, how much of this do you think was just the environment, given what happened in New Jersey? So how much do you think what happened in Virginia was the environment versus kind of the specific campaign dynamics?

01:01.24

Joe

Well, i think I think it depends on what race you’re talking about. you know I think, obviously, when you look at the fact that Abigail Spanberger won by 15 points, you know significantly higher than there are other statewide compatriots. Ghazala Hashimi only won by about 11.5. You had Jay Jones, obviously, only winning by about 6.5 points.

01:26.20

Joe

So, you know, Abigail Spanberger winning by around 15.3%. That, you know, that’s a big difference. Obviously, that’s a, I think that’s a Spanberger-like thing, the fact that she was able to get that high.

01:38.51

Joe

But if you, I think the Hashmi-Reed race, I talked, I put out a post about this a couple of days ago. That seemed to basically be kind of the the set generic R, generic D race. That was the race had the least attention.

01:50.67

Joe

That was the race that just kind of seemed to be, I think, where if we’re just talking about baseline where R’s and D’s were in Virginia this year, that seemed to be the place right there. And I think when you look at the races in the House of Delegates, I think that kind of tracks pretty well with the seats that we saw flip or get close. You know, I think in general, I think that sits pretty well with what we are looking at statewide. But certainly, I think in the case of, you know, how relative in terms of compared to the other two statewide races, how relatively close to the AG race was. and how you know far apart the governor’s race was, I think those were candidate-based. But I think when you get down to, I think, some of these has of deal a lot of these House of Delegate races, and I think the lieutenant governor’s race as well, it just showed just general blue wave that I think fell over the parts of the country that held elections two weeks ago.

02:40.43

Sam Shirazi

Yeah, I mean, I think that’s a good point. Like if you look at the lieutenant governor’s race as kind of the generic ballot, D.R. and the Democrats win by 11.

02:48.38

Joe

Uh.

02:48.71

Sam Shirazi

I mean, if you compare to that to 2017, that’s a bigger win than the governor’s race or the lieutenant governor’s race in 2017 in Virginia. So how much do you think, you know, Virginia, New Jersey,

02:59.18

Sam Shirazi

was kind of a flashing signal to the Republicans because some Republicans have said, well, those are bluer states, so there’d probably be more of a backlash in those types of states. you know how How big of a deal do you think the elections were?

03:12.30

Joe

I think certainly certainly they’re a big deal. And certainly when you, I think, underperform expectations like Republicans did, you know, not just in Virginia, but across the country.

03:22.89

Joe

two weeks ago, that’s going to be a huge problem. That can send red red flashing lights, I think, for everyone. You know, Republicans didn’t do well in New Jersey, like you said. They didn’t do well. There were some very key races in Pennsylvania that brought forth a lot of money. The Republicans didn’t do well there.

03:37.91

Joe

There was a lot of local stuff in many states that did not go Republicans’ way. That was a lot of problems. Obviously, the big red, flashing light, I think you look at the legislative elections in both New Jersey and Virginia, where Republicans you know failed to failed to make, you know either limit their losses, like I think the hope was Virginia, or potentially to make some gains, like I think they were quite honestly hoping to do in New Jersey. you know and Republicans basically had their worst night possible, losing 13 seats, basically all the seats that were

04:09.88

Joe

rated toss-up or even the few that were lean Republican by the end of the night were in the Democratic column. You know, you had upsets, you know, you had Chad Green losing, Paul Mild, Bobby Oroch, you know, those are kind of the three seats that I think people going into the night were, you know, kind of thinking that Republicans probably had a slightly better than 50% chance in. And then, you know, Democrats win all three of those seats with, honestly, with some relative ease. None of them were within a point in the closest seat.

04:39.60

Joe

that Democrats won was actually Gary Higgins’ seat, which some people thought may be not as close as it was. But there there should be a lot of red flashing lights here. I think obviously with Virginia, you know you have to take the government shutdown into effect.

04:54.13

Joe

Certainly that’s what happened in 2013. But you know now you have a government shutdown happening that really ticked off a lot of Virginia voters. Well, you’ve got a Republican president you know who is not popular right now. If you go by the polling data, he’s not a particularly popular person right now.

05:10.28

Joe

And it’s certainly not surprising that he’s not he was not popular in a lot of these deep blue pockets that Virginia has around Richmond, you know, the D.C. suburbs, of course, and then around, you know, Hampton Roads area, Norfolk, Hampton, Newport News, Portsmouth, even the inner parts of Chesapeake and Virginia Beach, you know.

05:29.80

Joe

It’s a very clear sign that the people who are turning out to elections right now are upset and Republicans need to take notice and maybe I think recalibrate some of the messaging that we hope to have 2026.

05:40.13

Sam Shirazi

Yeah, and and I’ll get to the midterms and kind of what the Republicans can maybe change. I did want to just spend a moment just on the House of Delegates because you know you you obviously know know knew those races really well. And I think you know pretty much no one expected Democrats to pick up the 13 seats.

05:55.71

Sam Shirazi

And I think the question I have kind of... about the Virginia elections in this context is more, do individual candidates matter at this point at the kind lower parts of the ticket? Because I feel like most people don’t even think too much about the House of Delegates candidates anymore. In 2013, Terry McAuliffe won the governor’s race and the Republicans won like 66 House of Delegates seats. It just seems like people don’t do that anymore. And I mean, do you think there’s gonna be any ticket splitting in the future or is just we’re kind of done with that?

06:30.22

Joe

Well, mean, we still did see some evidence of ticket splitting. You know, you go to via eighty six district. AC Cordoza did, I think, significantly worse than most of the top of the ticket.

06:42.20

Joe

We had Carrie Coyner in 75, even though she still lost, do significantly better than Republicans at the top of ticket did in that seat, even though she still ended up losing by just about six points there. So I think i think when you look at some of these races, there is still some signs of ticket splitting for some favors to to incumbents, but you know,

07:01.80

Joe

You look at, I think, people like Mark Early Jr., who was, you know, knocked out by over three points. You look at David Owen, who who had a very moderate voting record and in Henrico County in what became a very blue seat. He got trounced. I think Ian Lovejoy, I think, in HD22 and Prince William, I think that’s the biggest one. Ian Lovejoy.

07:42.60

Joe

I think that showed the partisanship more than maybe any race throughout the cycle, the fact that people did not care that Ian Lovejoy was a relatively moderate Republican delegate. He just where he had an R next to his name, and the people in Northern Virginia were not going to elect any Republican this year.

07:59.01

Joe

That’s the fact they weren’t going to do it. and you know, that’s what happened now. I mean, Northern Virginia is completely blue the house level now. Jerry Higgins is gone. Ian Lovejoy is gone. If you want him to count Paul Mildon there in that middle Stafford seat, he’s gone. And even if you want to go as far as Bobby Oreck, you know, he’s gone now, too.

08:17.81

Joe

So, you know, I think certainly there is a good chunk of it that was anger. There’s certainly still, I think there’s still some ticket splitting you can see here, but certainly it’s becoming less and less, you know, it’s becoming less and less common, becoming less and less a decider. You know, we might be seeing it a point or two, but we’re not seeing it by the 10, 15-point splits that we would see a decade ago.

08:36.62

Sam Shirazi

Yeah, and and that makes sense. And, you know, it it is, I think sometimes when there’s these waves, whether it’s a blue wave or red wave, it kind of takes people with them and there’s not a lot you can do. And so looking towards the midterms, I guess, before we get to what Republicans can do or learn, Do you think you’ll see a similar dynamic where some of these incumbents, you know, maybe in the past they’ve been safe? i mean, obviously, the biggest name is Susan Collins. After 2020, there’s this assumption she’s very hard to beat. But do you think maybe if there’s this wave that some of these incumbents could actually be pretty vulnerable?

09:11.11

Joe

I mean, that’s I think that’s the case with every wave, potential wave of election, quite honestly. i mean, if you go back to the conversations in 2022, there was a lot of that the Republicans could knock off. some historically song strong Democrat candidates. Now, obviously, that year didn’t turn out like like it had been previously hoped, but you know that was certainly part of the thinking there. And if you want to consider 2024 wave election in some circumstance, you had Republican president, Senate candidate winning the popular vote in Donald Trump, Republicans making gains in both houses of Congress and in state legislators across the country.

09:44.09

Joe

You know, you i think Bob Casey. I think if you want to consider 2024 to be a certain type of wave, you have Bob Casey, who was considered one of the stronger candidates in the country. you know, kind of just get eliminated out of nowhere, truly by partisanship. So, you know you know, I think Susan Collins can’t wet rest, certainly, I think, compared to lots of candidates.

10:04.17

Joe

She’s done a better job at portraying her brand. She has a longtime brand. we see see We still see those longtime people survive. But, you know, if to make the Virginia connection, you’ve got someone like Bobby Orrick, who had been there for 30-plus years, you know, getting absolutely swamped.

10:20.12

Joe

know, it’s very clearly starting to matter less. And if people are mad, and if those people are voting, then, you know, I think, Connie, you’re out of luck there, quite honestly.

10:30.50

Joe

It’s going to be tough for of these people imagine. But, you know, the the old days are almost dead when it comes to stuff like this. and those those days that we have, those major ticket splits, don’t really exist anymore. Now, we like this like we’ve said, like I’ve said, we’ve had some still some stragglers. And some of those stragglers are still going to exist, I think, after the 2026 election.

10:50.60

Joe

It’s just going to continue to be less and less than what we’re used to in this nation.

10:54.100

Sam Shirazi

Yeah, and I think it’s a good point about Bob Casey, because I think that was one where I was surprised in 2024. And it’s just a good reminder that can’t take any you can’t make any assumptions in any election. So we’ll just have to wait to see how the midterms go. I did want to ask about kind of lessons to be learned or or things that could potentially change, because, you know, obviously on the Democratic side, there’s a sense of, yes, Virginia and New Jersey proved our theory that you know Democrats are going to come back and there’s going to be a blue wave in 2026. I’m kind of hesitant to all make these big assumptions because obviously 2022, there was a lot of talk about a red wave. and It didn’t really happen, even though the Republicans made some gains.

11:39.89

Joe

You know, I think the read is that Democrats are probably favored. You know, obviously, I think it is little bit too early. Obviously, we had the ruling on the Texas redistricting yesterday. We’ll see how that appeal goes. You know, if that gets flipped back to the redrawn Texas districts, then that will – kind of, I think, rechanged some priors again. You know, we’ve had obviously so much, you know, mid-term, mid-cycle redistricting, you know, that’s not good for our country, quite honestly.

12:08.93

Joe

It’s bad for democracy. It’s bad for this place. You know, it’s bad in Texas. It’s bad in California. It’s bad in Missouri. It’s bad in North Carolina. You know, it’s bad. It’s bad in Virginia, with Virginia looking you like to do with it I think that’s bad, obviously. And, you know, i you’ve got Indiana looking do it. You know, this Illinois going to go one farther. You know, Maryland, there’s a lot of pressure in Maryland to try and eliminate Andy Harris in that last Republican seat there.

12:36.60

Joe

it’s it’s just kind of this coalition of a lot of things that are occurring at one time and just a lot of partisan anger at each other that in truth is not good for our country. It’s not healthy for our country. and It’s a lot of lot of negative thoughts and feelings, I think, that are going right now with that. And i think we’re going tonna have to see and wait how how that kind of ends and develops.

12:55.92

Joe

You know, I think we’re going to have to and candidates, you know, who’s going to get primaried. Republican anger has sometimes led in some seats to nominating in swing seats of very partisan candidates. Now, I don’t think it would be the same type of partisan candidates for Democratic primaries, but certainly do you get maybe these – – someone made the point to me, maybe these, you know, Carr Eastman – Jamie McLeod Skinner, if you know those names, then you’re impressive. But these very left wing, but also academic types, who kind of are notorious for turning off swing voters.

13:25.62

Joe

you know Do Democrats maybe get a couple of those in swing seats? you know do they blow those there? We don’t really know the the real extent of democratic Democratic anger yet that I think we could see in some of these primaries. I’m very fascinated to see how that develops.

13:39.38

Joe

And I think that will make a lot of calls. But I think certainly right now Democrats are favored to retake the House. And I think there will be questions about the Senate. I think the Senate could be very close, but just because of the seats that are up, I do think Republicans are a little bit favored to, I think, keep control there.

13:55.50

Sam Shirazi

Yeah, I mean, that that seems to be the what it looks like right now, but obviously year is a long time. And so given that there’s still time until the midterms, you know, any party after an election like what happened in Virginia, New Jersey, they’ll take some time to reflect, try to figure out, OK, what went wrong?

14:11.96

Sam Shirazi

It seems like the main issue the Republicans had was the economy and they didn’t talk enough about it. We’ve already seen a little bit of changing, I think, in some of the messaging for the Republicans. But do you think there’s like anything the Republicans can do in terms of changing the messaging or just the economy have to get better? And that’s really the only thing that can maybe help the Republicans for the midterms.

14:32.12

Joe

You know, obviously the economy getting better it would be the change of all change. It certainly wouldn’t be to the level the Roe v. Wade ruling being overturned by the Supreme Court, but certainly an improvement in the economy would help Republican chances. it would certainly, I think, lessen the size of the wave that they could face, for sure.

14:53.88

Joe

think that’s undeniable if the economy approves. But I also think Republicans just have to talk more about what they’re trying to do with the affordability crisis. There is an affordability crisis in this country. You know, I’m 24.

15:28.11

Joe

I believe, as a Republican, I think that Republicans can be far better. think in terms of, you know, I think unleashing the free market for a housing industry. And, you know, that’s something that i’m I’m increasingly passionate about and believe that I think Republicans can need to message more affordability because I believe they are doing some strong things. And I believe it’s trying to focus on affordability and what they’re trying to do to help people in their pocketbook.

16:02.57

Joe

not what people are worried about right now. People are worried about affording rent, and they’re worrying about trying to buy their first home, and they’re trying to worry about food putting food on the table. think Republicans have to reconstruct themselves through affordability crisis, and I think if we do that, I think we can certainly, if we can message it well, think we can certainly avoid a super wave that would knock out the lots of candidates in seats that we should not be losing, that we might be losing under the terms of a massive wave.

16:28.83

Sam Shirazi

Yeah, and I think that’s a good point about you know the messaging.

16:30.99

Joe

Thank

16:31.94

Sam Shirazi

And it’s not super complicated, but obviously the Republicans have to work on that for the persuasion side of things. I did want to talk about turnout because in some parts of Virginia, like Southwest Virginia, turnout wasn’t as strong as it was in 2021. You often hear about low propensity Trump voters. They don’t show up for the midterms. That’s going to be a problem for the Republicans.

16:51.26

Sam Shirazi

My sense is some of the trans stuff is to try to motivate those people to show up, which, you know, I don’t know if that really works. But how do you think the Republicans can deal with that issue of their low propensity voters?

17:02.61

Joe

Well, it’s certainly a question that’s hard to do. I think a lot of Republicans look to groups like Scott Pressler’s Early Vote Action. To be totally honest, I think Early Vote Action does a very good job the first step, which is getting people to register to the vote.

17:17.60

Joe

I don’t think they’re particularly very good at the second and third step, which is educating them on where to vote and making sure they get out to vote. I think they’ve not done a very good job at that.

17:27.93

Joe

that’s a frustration I have with the group that I think we’re taking maybe too many opinions of how we should run our local campaigns. But that’s, I think, a topic for another conversation another day.

17:39.45

Joe

But I think Republicans, like I said, I think they have to talk to people’s pocketbooks. I think we have to, you know, again, i think we have to hit on what we’re doing to focus on the affordability crisis and what we’re doing to help people’s pocketbooks and make sure that we know the the people know that we’re fighting for them and that we give them a reason to turn out. If we do not, I think a lot of people and the parties in power don’t,

18:02.23

Joe

do a very good job of this. I think Democrats certainly struggled with it during Joe Biden’s term. Republicans struggled with it a bit in Donald Trump’s first term. I think Democrats suffered with it significantly more in Barack Obama’s eight years as president and those off-year elections of giving them a reason to turn out. The only reason that Joe Biden, think they not suffer terrible midterm losses is because Roe v. Wade being overturned gave lots of Democrat voters and activists reason to turn out.

18:32.10

Joe

Republicans aren’t going to have something like that, so we have to fight for it ourselves and message in that way to give them a reason to turn out for us and you know you know try and keep our majorities as much as unlikely as that may be in some circumstances.

18:44.17

Joe

circumstances

18:45.36

Sam Shirazi

Well, that’ll make sense. And, you know, we’ll see how the midterms go. i did want to shift things back to Virginia to talk about perhaps something that will be happening in the spring, because obviously the Democrats have proposed redistricting.

18:59.52

Sam Shirazi

Now there’s some legal challenges. We’ll see how that goes. Democrats, in theory, would have to vote for it again, which seems like likely that they would.

19:05.63

Joe

Thank you.

19:07.12

Sam Shirazi

So let’s say there’s a referendum in the spring. I think the assumption among Democrats, at least, is, oh, this will be a slam dunk. You know, look what happened in California. And, you know, we’re going to get this redistricting referendum passed. I mean, do you think there’s a chance it might not pass? Because obviously, Virginia is not California. And, you know, the polling, it looks like slight majority might support it. But, you know, in theory, especially if Texas redistricting goes down, there might be this world where,

19:34.90

Sam Shirazi

The voters might say, you know, this isn’t really necessary anymore.

19:37.91

Joe

Yeah, I think if the Texas Rediscerating stays down, that could change things tremendously. Personally, you know, I think it takes away a big chunk of the argument that Virginia Democrats have.

19:50.37

Joe

Like you said, it’s certainly, it’s not California, you know, 15 points is my Abigail Spamberger is, you know, it’s a miracle. It’s, it’s such an incredible result. One of the best results for Democrats ever in the modern age. If a candidate for governor won by only 15 points in California, you’d have people like freaking, freaking out. in that state, if I’m being honest. You’d have mass panic among Democrats in California if they only won by 50 points.

20:38.76

Joe

you know i you know And like you said, if it’s going to happen in the spring on an off year maybe a little bit, Democrats going to have to try harder. you know yeah The rural black vote and even I think the urban black vote in Virginia has always been has always been a consistent problem for Democrats in non-presidential years. That’s something they’re going to have to work on too, especially if Republicans maybe can get their voters turned on on this. And maybe if, again, if Texas isn’t back, Democrats are then going to have to continue to find a reason.

21:07.87

Joe

if they can’t find a reason then that’s really where uh republicans and no activists can step in and uh you maybe defeat the referendum here which would be very interesting to see

21:17.67

Sam Shirazi

Yeah, so let’s assume for whatever reason the the maps aren’t changed. Just for now, we obviously don’t know what potentially new districts would look like. Could you kind of talk a little bit about what you are seeing in the second district in a Kiggins-Loria rematch and in the first district with a Whitman-Taylor matchup?

21:37.85

Joe

Yeah, those are going to be two of the, I think if the map stays the same, are going to be two of the more interesting races. in the in the country. I think certainly those are going be the two most interesting races in Virginia.

22:10.63

Joe

You know, if you have Elaine Luria back in the second, if you have, you know, you’ve got Shannon Taylor in the first, who has a lot of momentum after her strong primary performance against Jay Jones, you know, there’s still certainly going to be, you know, there are still primaries for both. You know, I think Taylor,

22:27.57

Joe

is a sure thing. I i i think Lurie will end up being a sure thing. You know, there are still a couple of candidates in this race that I’m still maybe a little bit interested in you know, seeing and what they might do here. You know, they’ve raised a couple of, they’ve there’s been some candidates who’ve raised some decent money for starter for new candidates. So I’m interested to see maybe what goes on there, but I think certainly...

22:48.18

Joe

If the districts stay the same, we’re going to have Luria versus Kiggins 2.0. two point zero I think we will have Shannon Taylor versus Rob Whitman. Certainly, Rob Whitman will be the harder candidate to take down. I think the question is how overwhelming Western Henrico and Chesterfield is compared to the rest of the seat.

23:05.71

Joe

You know, does Whitman overperform in, you know, the Northern neck portion of the district where he’s represented his whole career? How much does that help him there? You know, that’ll be question. I think it looks very, it looks tough right now. I think for Jen Kiggins, and it just seems like that seems like a district that just, you know, it’s one of those districts that just swings back and forth and back and forth the way it’s drawn right now. And, uh,

23:27.96

Joe

I think she would certainly have a very tough time going against Luria, though I will always say it’s always, I think, more of a risk to run a candidate again after they lose in the general election versus a newcomer. I think that comes with different types of risks.

23:42.09

Joe

You’ve already had, you know, these races be able to run against that candidate. But, you know, I think certainly I would think I think in the end, Elaine Luria would probably favored there. and I think it would be very, very tight between Rob Whitman and Shannon Taylor.

23:54.17

Sam Shirazi

And I wanted to ask about the Senate race, because, you know, realistically, I don’t think Republicans are going to target it I mean, Mark Warner is going to the election, right?

23:59.81

Joe

wow

24:01.29

Sam Shirazi

I guess, you know, in 2018, we have a similar dynamic. Tim Kaine got a big win. And frankly, towards the end of that, he just spent his time basically campaigning for the congressional seats. Do you think Warner, if he gets like a Spanberger type 15% win, it could have influenced the House seats?

24:16.41

Joe

i think I think absolutely. I think Tim Kaine’s big win absolutely did so for Democrat House candidates and in 2018 for Democrats, a thing that helped out there.

24:26.72

Joe

you know i You know, obviously there’s no Corey Stewart, it looks like, this time. that That will be a big difference. Corey Stewart was much of you know... as you know Tim Cain was a good candidate. Stewart was as much of a drag of a candidate.

24:42.52

Joe

You know, it’ll probably come, you know, Bryce Reese is running. There’s been some talk around this David Williams, a U.S. Marine reserve reservist who just announced, you know, it’ll probably be one of those two.

24:53.60

Joe

I bet at that point, you know, you never know if an outsider can. But Bryce Reeves is not Corey Stewart. If it’s Bryce Reeves, I think there’s potential. He could keep it below a Spanberger-level blowout. You know, I think, I don’t know if that makes sense. You know, it’s like a difference between a 13-point Warner victory and a 15-point Warner victory. I don’t think does much for... Jen Kiggins, I think that could be very big for Rob Whitman, that top of the ticket. I think when you’re talking about that seat, that’s where maybe some difference could lie. you know If Warner’s maybe winning by 10 or 11 points, that’s where I think Whitman i think has a better chance of surviving than I think Kiggins would. I think you know you get to the double-digit races, I think Jen Kiggins is a lot of trouble then down the ballot.

25:42.44

Sam Shirazi

Yeah, that makes sense. And you know obviously we have to wait to see what the lines are in next year in Virginia. Well, I did want to leave on one note, which I’m sure the Republicans probably aren’t looking forward to, which is 2027 in Virginia because the the entire state Senate and the entire House of Delegates is up for election.

25:54.63

Joe

and

25:58.25

Sam Shirazi

I mean, obviously state Senate, i think Republicans have a... are in trouble in some of these districts and some of their incumbents and may go down or retire. So first on the state Senate and then also on House of Delegates, do you think, you know, do you think it’s realistic that Democrats are going to pick up more seats or can have they kind of hit their peak in the House of Delegates?

26:19.43

Joe

I think certainly in the Senate, I think they’re going to pick up at the bare minimum, you know, three seats. I think Danny Diggs, I think Glenn Sturdivant, and I think, I believe that Tara Durant’s seat.

26:33.82

Joe

think they’re picked up. I’m a little bit less sure. I think Republicans would have a better chance with Dave Suterlein and Emily Jordan. Those are just more Republican seats in general. And i think they could have a better chance to survive there. You know, Bill DeStef, Abigail Spanberger won that seat.

26:51.49

Joe

Northern Virginia Beach there. But, you know, again, i think that those three are maybe slightly more reaches. I think when you’re talking them the House, you know, it’s very tough. Obviously, the closest one was I think you have Tony Wilt’s seat.

27:03.73

Joe

And then I think it becomes significantly harder harder for Democrats to gain more than that. And I think when you’re looking at 2027, at least at the moment, I think you’re going have to expect Democrats to actually have to spend money defending some of these seats.

27:16.53

Joe

I certainly think House District 30 is going to be one tough to defend. I think they will you know take a shot at House District 69, the one that Mark Downey knocked off Chad Green in. I think that is one where Republicans will actually look to spend and look to attack.

27:56.07

Joe

Democrats will have to, I think, cover. I think that makes gating any more than maybe one to two seats difficult because i think they’re going to have to play a lot of defense in in some of these seats. I think certainly much more than they had to this past cycle.

28:08.80

Sam Shirazi

And I guess the last question about the Virginia Republicans is, you know, how do you think they start rebuilding? Because I think there’s obviously a huge hole that they’re in. And, you know, they got three more years of the Trump administration, which is probably not going be easy to rebuild in that environment. Or they just have to kind of see what happens in 2028 and basically wait for 2029 to have a realistic shot of, you know, perhaps coming back?

28:32.08

Joe

I think just to have to be a ride the wave type thing. You know... redoing the messaging, start the process, but I think they’re going just try to ride the wave through 2027 and then kind of go from there, which is kind of what Virginia Republicans did in 2019. They kind of rode that wave, had to ride that wave, and then kind of post-2019 and post-2020 started to figure themselves out little more and try to reset.

28:54.54

Joe

you know i think going to have to try and be a similar thing here. It’s It’s going to just continue to get more and more difficult. you know I think Virginia is just it is what it is. It’s an increasingly blue state.

29:04.97

Joe

and’m going to find it difficult, I think, for Republicans to really maybe ever get back to the levels they want were once were. Those days are gone. I think the best they can hope for is there are majorities, and it seems very difficult to believe that that’s necessarily going to be coming back anytime soon. So you have to kind of just build from the bottom and try and figure out your pathway from there.

29:24.89

Sam Shirazi

Yeah, well, it’s, you know, I think after 2017, you know, most people thought Virginia Republicans were done for a while. And then obviously in 2021, they won. So I think Virginia goes back and forth. I think that’s the main lesson as opposed to, you know, Democrats had some huge victory. So anyways, I appreciate you taking the time to come on. And yeah, if you if you want to let people know how they can find you and, you know, follow your stuff.

29:48.10

Joe

Yeah, I’m on X at Joseph Samansky. I’m also on sub Substack.

29:52.58

Joe

Elections by Ski on Substack. It’s a free Substack. So if you want to subscribe to me there, I’m also there if you want to follow me along with my election takes. I’ve been very busy the last couple of weeks, so i haven’t done anything yet, but more should be coming soon. And Sam, as always, I appreciate you having me on today.

30:07.26

Sam Shirazi

Yeah, thanks so much for coming on. And this has been Federal Fallout and I’ll join you next time.

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