Hi, everyone. I’m Sam Shirazi, and this is Federal Fall Out the 2025 Virginia Elections. This episode, we will go over election night and the blue wave that came into Virginia on election day.

00:12.95

Sam Shirazi

So this is the moment that we had all been waiting for when the polls closed at seven o’clock. We saw the results come in. And I would say it was pretty surprising. i mean, we all knew that the Democrats were going to do well at the end. I think that was pretty obvious to both sides.

00:28.24

Sam Shirazi

But I think the scale of the victory was certainly at the top end of what was possible for the Democrats. And basically, it was a I would describe it almost as a blue tsunami more than a blue wave because...

00:40.57

Sam Shirazi

At the top of the ticket, Abigail Spanberger, she is going to win that race by over 15 points when all the votes are in. And that’s just, you know, a really large margin for the governor’s race, pretty much more than any of the polling had found.

00:56.10

Sam Shirazi

And the biggest victory that a Democrat has gotten in the governor’s race in a long, long time. yeah. Definitely big night at the top of the ticket for Abigail Spanberger. She will become the first woman to become governor of Virginia.

01:10.44

Sam Shirazi

For lieutenant governor, Ghazala Hashmi also got a very large victory. She is going to be winning by more than 11%. She will become the first Muslim person and the first South Asian person elected statewide in Virginia.

01:25.64

Sam Shirazi

So another big win for the lieutenant governor’s race. I think perhaps the most shocking result of the night was the attorney general race, because honestly, it didn’t end up being that close when all the votes came in.

01:36.31

Sam Shirazi

It looks like Jay Jones will win by more than 6%, probably closer to 7% when all the votes are in. Obviously, there was a fair amount of ticket splitting, about, it looks like about 8% ticket splitting, which honestly is kind of what I thought it would end up being. 8% sounded about right to me.

01:55.81

Sam Shirazi

I think the thing that was really surprising was just the fact that Spanberger won by so much. So 8% ticket splitting could have been a big deal had it not been for the fact that Spanberger won by by so much at the top of the ticket.

02:08.23

Sam Shirazi

And so Jay Jones, he will become the first black attorney general in Virginia history. Obviously the voters voters gave him a second chance and were willing to go with him because it seems like they wanted to send a message that they were unhappy with what was going on with the Republican Party.

02:25.81

Sam Shirazi

And I think the other big shock of the night after the attorney general race was the House of Delegates. So the Democrats are on track to win 64 seats in the House of Delegates. They are going to be flipping 13 seats in the House of Delegates.

02:40.19

Sam Shirazi

And that is almost every single seat that they targeted. Really a huge night for the Virginia House of Delegates Democrats. They were very ambitious and they were correct to be ambitious because they were able to flip a lot of seats, including Trump 2024 seats.

02:57.66

Sam Shirazi

So clearly, and they were different parts of Virginia. Northern Virginia, Richmond area, Hampton Roads, a seed in Southwest Virginia. So it’s just a complete Democratic victory in Virginia.

03:09.72

Sam Shirazi

And you know I’m going to do the full analysis in my subsequent podcast. This is more just kind of a quick summary of everything that happened. I don’t plan on wrapping up the podcast anytime soon. I think I want to do a few episodes to explore what happened, why it happened, individual races, what happened, and the special dynamics.

03:29.62

Sam Shirazi

But I think i wanted to kind of share some big picture thoughts that I had. I think big picture, there’s an argument that really... there was nothing the Virginia Republicans could do to avoid a loss this year in Virginia. i think realistically, once the scale of what was going to happen in DC on after January 20th became obvious, specifically with Doge, I think that was pretty much the end of the Virginia Republicans this year in Virginia.

03:57.30

Sam Shirazi

Now you could argue, you know, if, if Earl Sears had ran a better campaign, maybe on the margins, it could have, the outcome could have changed a little bit, but the reality is, you know, I think what was going on with Doge was just so toxic, specifically in Northern Virginia. And we saw huge swings in Northern Virginia.

04:15.97

Sam Shirazi

The Democrats picked up four seats in the Northern Virginia region in the House of Delegates. just Doge, I mean, I live in Northern Virginia. It was just really, really toxic for the Virginia Republicans.

04:28.94

Sam Shirazi

And there was really nothing they could do to come back from that. I mean, you know once Doge kind of went away for a little bit, you know And arguably, the Virginia Republicans were trying to mount to comeback.

04:40.48

Sam Shirazi

you know I think the shutdown and specifically the rifts that were threatened during the shutdown and that were attempted to be implemented, but eventually were mainly stopped through court court cases.

04:52.85

Sam Shirazi

I think that kind of brought a lot of that back to the forefront. And most voters in Northern Virginia, it just turned them off. And there was really nothing the Virginia Republicans to do could do to win those voters back. so you know There’s a reason the podcast was called Federal Fallout. i mean I had a feeling when I started this podcast, there was going to be a lot of federal fallout. And I think you know this election has basically proven that that that’s the case. now you know Every election, there’s a lot of things going on. I think Spanberger at the top of the ticket was a strong candidate.

05:24.85

Sam Shirazi

I think, obviously, there was issues with cost of living and you know the fact that inflation has not necessarily gotten that much better from 2024. So there’s a lot of things going on, but I do think the federal fallout, and I also think specifically the shutdown was an important issue, even though it didn’t really get that much attention on the campaign trail.

05:44.84

Sam Shirazi

So those are some of the... My initial thoughts. I also think, you know, another thing that I wanted to talk about was what this all means for Virginia. and And I’ll do more episodes to break this down. But essentially...

05:58.85

Sam Shirazi

there are going to be there’s going to be a trifecta in January in Richmond, which means Spanberger is going to be able to pass laws and the General Assembly is going to be able to pass laws pretty easily. And so I think it’s going to be important for Spanberger to work with the General Assembly, think about what laws she wants, and and the General Assembly has to think about what laws it wants to spend Spanberger because when you have a trifecta, it’s better for the governor and the General Assembly to work together so that there isn’t too much, you know,

06:25.74

Sam Shirazi

tension or too much conflict out in the open. You want to kind of figure that stuff out behind the scenes. So think that’s going to be an interesting dynamic. The other thing I’m looking at are these constitutional amendments.

06:36.00

Sam Shirazi

So obviously redistricting got a lot of attention. Redistricting is going to move forward now, given that the Democrats won the House of Delegates. It’s possible some of these court challenges might slow it down or might mess up the Democrats’ plans. But you know redistricting is obviously on the agenda.

06:51.05

Sam Shirazi

I think the other thing to keep in mind is the Democrats had already proposed three other constitutional amendments for November 2026. One would be on reproductive rights to enshrine in the Virginia Constitution, certain reproductive rights. There was also a amendment on marriage equality to repeal the ban on same-sex marriage in the Virginia Constitution and to protect same-sex marriage in the Virginia Constitution.

07:13.86

Sam Shirazi

And then finally, there is an amendment to restore automatically restore voting rights Two people convicted of felonies once they are released from prison. So those will all be on the ballot in November 2026. I think in almost all likelihood, those are going to be passed.

07:28.25

Sam Shirazi

So those changes to the Virginia Constitution are going to happen. And I also think there are the national implications of these elections. Obviously, there was also what what happened in New Jersey. New Jersey, Democrats did well. They did better than expected. it really wasn’t that close, even though people thought New Jersey was going to be close.

07:43.67

Sam Shirazi

Obviously, Democrats did well in Virginia. And I do think there is kind of a message the voters are sending to the Republicans in D.C. to maybe think about the scale of what they’re trying to do.

07:54.62

Sam Shirazi

And, you know, I think after every presidential election, and There is a sense by the party that wins that you know my worldview has been endorsed by the American people and they 100% agree with everything that we want to do.

08:07.74

Sam Shirazi

Democrats felt that way after 2020. Republicans felt that that way after 2024. I think the reality is most Americans have you know different views. They don’t always agree with a party on everything.

08:20.36

Sam Shirazi

And a lot of voters will lend their votes to certain parties in different elections because whatever reason in 2024, probably because of the cost of living inflation. And it doesn’t mean you necessarily agree with every single thing a party is doing. And I think it’s important for the Republicans and the Democrats to remember that, that you know they have their specific issues, they have their verr worldview, and the voters may agree with some of it, but they don’t necessarily agree with all of it. And I think it’s important for the Virginia Republicans to and realize that. And I also think it’s it’s frankly important for the Virginia Democrats to realize that.

08:54.82

Sam Shirazi

And I think one of the lessons... of the Virginia elections is things swing swing back and forth. Every four years, pretty much, there is a very dramatic swing in Virginia.

09:05.48

Sam Shirazi

And I think obviously 2021, Republicans had a good year. Now 2025, Democrats have a good year. There was a huge swing. and And so I guess what I’m trying to get at is I get that the Democrats feel like they have this huge mandate.

09:18.100

Sam Shirazi

They’re going to come in. you know Everything is you know behind them to make major changes in Richmond. you know They should also keep in mind that I think a lot of voters probably also lent their votes to the Democrats this election because they want to send a message about the Republicans. It became a referendum on Trump and they sent a message.

09:36.21

Sam Shirazi

But doesn’t necessarily mean they always endorse every single position the Democrats have. So I think it’s important for both the Republicans and the Democrats to have a little humility when it comes to these elections.

09:47.49

Sam Shirazi

And frankly, I think in 2021, the Virginia Republicans kind of misread the mood and the environment in Virginia. they had kind of thought after 2021 that, you know, we’re going to make Virginia red state again. And, you know, we’re going to totally change the culture in Virginia back to what it was maybe 20 years ago.

10:05.05

Sam Shirazi

And the reality is, i think voters, while... They probably wanted some change in Virginia in 2021. It was still fundamentally a light blue state. And I think the Virginia Republicans probably governed and Glenn Youngkin probably governed a little bit too far to the right for Virginia.

10:23.98

Sam Shirazi

And probably some of the backlash was also in 2025 to that, that the Virginia Republicans never really tried to Governed like they were in a purple state. A lot of it was kind of more red meat meat stuff for the base. And, you know, in theory, you could see them trying to govern maybe something closer to like Larry Hogan in Maryland. And that probably would have been pretty successful. successful But I think they just kind of went a little bit too far right.

10:49.67

Sam Shirazi

And, you know, Virginia is a complicated state. A lot of the places that Republicans come from, you know, pretty red. So I kind of get why they did that, but I think it’s important to remember fundamentally Virginia still is kind of a middle road state. And I also think it’s important for the Democrats to remember that because obviously most of the Democrats come from very blue parts of Virginia.

11:07.89

Sam Shirazi

There are very red parts of Virginia. While Spanberger got a big win, there’s still a lot of people who voted for Earl Sears. And I think it’s important for the Democrats to remember that. And it’s it’s important not to maybe...

11:20.08

Sam Shirazi

take it too far or maybe learn the wrong lessons. I think the thing that the voters really endorsed in this election Spanberger’s message, cost of living, kind common sense policies, not necessarily doing the culture war stuff. And, you know, obviously Earl Sears,

11:36.35

Sam Shirazi

kept focusing on the trans issue, and I think that was like a big mistake. And you know I had flagged for a while that didn’t make sense for Earl Sears to talk so much about the trans issue. So I think in that sense, the voters endorsed kind of the Spanberger vision of lowering costs, improving the economy.

11:51.10

Sam Shirazi

I think the challenge becomes now she has to deliver. And, you know, I don’t necessarily think the Democrats are going to be sidetracked by all these social issues, but there’s also the reality that they have to deal with a lot of things. They have to deal with red redistricting. And so if the voters kind of get the message after you get this big win, you know, you’re focusing on your own agenda or you’re focusing on all these other things.

12:09.27

Sam Shirazi

You’re not focusing on us. You’re not focusing on what we actually care about, what we elected you to do. And you could argue That’s kind of a message they were sending this year about what happened in 2024. So in 2024, you know, Trump and the Republicans get a big win.

12:25.04

Sam Shirazi

Arguably, a lot of that was economy, inflation, Voters expected them to fix that. President Trump comes in. They have a whole agenda. Some of it’s doge. Some of it’s immigration stuff. Some of it’s a lot of things that don’t really have to do a whole lot about lowering costs in the economy.

12:40.96

Sam Shirazi

And frankly, some of the tariffs have arguably increased the cost for the American people. And so the voters are kind of getting that. And I think at some point, you know, the national Republicans may want to think about the course they’re going down because, you know, the midterms are a year away. And typically what happens in Virginia is often followed by the midterms the next year.

13:05.49

Sam Shirazi

And so I think it’s important for the national Republicans, Virginia Republicans to learn the lesson of the 2025 Virginia elections. It’s also important for the Democrats to learn the lessons And I will unpack all this. There’s a lot to go over. I understand this podcast was probably a bit of a ramble of different things I was kind of thinking about in the moment.

13:26.65

Sam Shirazi

But I will try to organize my thoughts a little bit better down the line and give you kind of more of a a bigger picture breakdown of what everything that happened. But I will say, big picture overall, good night for the Democrats, obviously.

13:41.43

Sam Shirazi

And you know we’ll just have to wait and see where things go from here. Once I get a chance to process all the data and the specific precincts and the races and just kind of give you some more granular information, I want to do that. I want to kind of think through what this means for Virginia 2026 when democrats come in with the new new people elected. And long story short, a lot to still cover. As I said, I’m not going to wrap up the podcast yet. I don’t know.

14:09.52

Sam Shirazi

I don’t think it’s going to go on forever. But I do think in the short term, I do want to do some more podcasts, maybe i have a few more guests to kind of go over everything. And yeah, I mean, I appreciate everyone who’s been listening to the podcast, as you can tell.

14:21.10

Sam Shirazi

It’s something that I wanted to do to inform people. I hope people have found it informative before the election. I still want to inform people after the election. I appreciate everyone who’s been listening. I am obviously passionate about Virginia elections. I think they’re important. I think this election showed why they are important and why they often turn into these kind of national referendums and they send a national message.

14:43.35

Sam Shirazi

So anyways, I appreciate everyone who’s been listening. This has been Federal Fallout and I’ll join you next time.

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