00:00.78

Sam Shirazi

Hi everyone, I'm Sam Shirazi and this is Federal Fallout the 2025 Virginia Elections. This episode we will go over the chaos at the Lieutenant Governor level for the Virginia GOP.

00:12.89

Sam Shirazi

so earlier this week, I did a bonus episode on the dropping out of Pat Herrity from the Virginia GOP primary. That meant that by default, John Reid would be the GOP nominee.

00:23.55

Sam Shirazi

And as I said, almost certainly there that wouldn't be the last surprise this year in Virginia. But I didn't think the next surprise would be the same week. So it was revealed on Friday that Governor Youngkin called John Reed and asked him to withdraw from the race.

00:39.67

Sam Shirazi

This was due to allegations. There was a Tumblr which posted explicit images. John Reed denied that it was his Tumblr and said he did nothing wrong. He said he would not be withdrawing.

00:50.90

Sam Shirazi

As of the recording of this podcast, he's the Republican nominee. So what does this all mean? Obviously, it is not great news for the Virginia GOP. They were already going to have a hard year, and this is just going to make things that much harder.

01:07.49

Sam Shirazi

And obviously, you know, there's been a lot going on this week with the lieutenant governor's spot on the ticket for the governor. The Republicans have nominated Winston Sears.

01:20.13

Sam Shirazi

for attorney general is the incumbent Jason Meares and the middle part of the ticket, the Lieutenant governor, they had been expecting a primary, but Pat Haraday had to drop out due to health reasons.

01:31.76

Sam Shirazi

And so John Reed became the nominee. It seemed like for most of the week, the Republican party in Virginia was getting behind him. And obviously he was the nominee. So they were going to support him. That included all the figures within the Republican party in Virginia.

01:46.57

Sam Shirazi

And then this kind of bombshell dropped on Friday with Governor Yunkin making the phone call to ask John Reed to withdraw. And then later Friday afternoon, John Reed put out a video that made clear that he was not going to withdraw. He said he didn't do anything wrong.

02:03.48

Sam Shirazi

And there's a lot of things going on behind the scenes, and we can talk a little bit about that. But it's just another thing that's making life difficult for the Virginia GOP right now.

02:15.19

Sam Shirazi

And obviously, they were already going to have a tough year, given that they weren't that that given that the party in the White House typically does poorly in Virginia elections. And then on top of that, we had the federal fallout from all the firing of federal employees.

02:29.99

Sam Shirazi

And so it was just going to be a really tough year for the Virginia GOP. and And this is not going to be doing them any favors, given that there's all this chaos with the lieutenant governor spot on the ticket.

02:41.40

Sam Shirazi

So, I mean, I wanted to give a little bit of background about what's going on behind the scenes. So one of the factors is that John Reed,

02:52.97

Sam Shirazi

is openly a gay man. And the Virginia GOP earlier in the week seemed to kind of celebrate that the fact that they had a very diverse ticket, obviously, at the top of the ticket, you had an African American woman for the attorney general, you had a Hispanic man, and then for the lieutenant governor candidate, you had a a gay man being the nominee.

03:13.72

Sam Shirazi

And, you know, it seemed like that was part of what they wanted to run on this year and maybe try to distinguish themselves and and maybe fight some of the headwinds highlighting the diversity of their ticket.

03:26.62

Sam Shirazi

I think there's been a lot of allegations behind the scenes that a lot of what is driving this is the fact that that John Reed is gay. Now, look, I don't know what's driving it. I don't know what's going on behind the scenes.

03:38.38

Sam Shirazi

But that's kind of been the perception, at least from John Reed's perspective. And, you know, i think the reality is that most Virginians probably don't care one way or another about candidates' sexuality. I think there are certain parts of the Virginia GOP, the more evangelical conservative Christian part of the coalition that might have been a little bit uncomfortable with some of those aspects of John Reed being on the ticket. And I don't know if that's what's driving it.

04:08.96

Sam Shirazi

And, you know, whatever drove Governor Youngkin to make the decision to make the phone call and and kind of ask that John Reed withdraw, like the phone call happened. And,

04:19.27

Sam Shirazi

I'm guessing that Governor Youngkin thought that maybe the fact that there was a risk that some of this stuff would come out and it would hurt the ticket. And again, John Reed has denied that it was him or his Tumblr or he's not. And I don't I don't know what's going on. I'm not pretending to know the the facts one way another. I'm just kind of explaining what's going on, why why there was this.

04:45.75

Sam Shirazi

upheaval within the Virginia GOP. And I think it's, it's shown a lot of divisions because, and they're not necessarily clean divisions because I would say that John Reed comes from where the MAGA part of the party But you have this other part of the party that's maybe not so much closer closer to the MAGA wing, but maybe a more evangelical, conservative, Christian part of the party that is having some issues with John Reed being on the ticket. And so there's kind of a lot of inter-party stuff on the Republican side. And, you know, I don't know how it's eventually all going to shake out. I mean,

05:21.30

Sam Shirazi

John Reed's going to be on the ticket if he stays in the race. He's the Republican nominee. No one else filed. The other person who filed withdrew. So by law, he's the nominee. He's the only person who didn't withdraw and who made the ballot. And so the question becomes, like, what does he do?

05:40.06

Sam Shirazi

going forward because there's been pressure for him to drop out. He doesn't seem like he's going to drop out. And I'm not sure what is going to happen if he stays on the ticket, does Winston Sears campaign with him?

05:52.62

Sam Shirazi

Is she asked about, you know, does she feel comfortable running with him? I mean, it's going to be a lot of awkward moments. And I thought what was interesting during the video that John Reed put out on Friday afternoon, kind of saying he's staying in the race and he didn't do anything wrong,

06:07.86

Sam Shirazi

I don't think it was an accident. There was a picture of Governor Youngkin and a picture of Lieutenant Governor Winsome Sears in the background kind of looking down as he made those statements. And I think he wanted to make clear that he he wasn't going to back down despite of what Governor Youngkin asked him to do. so There's a lot going on, a lot going on for the Virginia GOP.

06:27.57

Sam Shirazi

Their race is kind of in flux on the lieutenant governor's side. And i don't I don't really know how it's going to play out. And it's it's certainly creating a headache for the Virginia GOP as they already are facing a lot of hand headwinds.

06:41.72

Sam Shirazi

And, you know, I talked about this in my podcast earlier in the week. There was a situation in 2013 where the were Republicans nominated E.W. Jackson, who had said some things that the Democrats were able to to find, and he was perceived as being much more extreme than the rest of the ticket.

06:59.20

Sam Shirazi

And he lost by double digits in a year where the governor's race was relatively close within a few points. And then the attorney general's race was only within a few hundred votes, very close race that went to a recount.

07:13.10

Sam Shirazi

And I think there's a chance that the problem that John Reed has is the more kind of conservative Christian evangelical voters, they might get turned off and they might not vote for him for Lieutenant Governor.

07:25.20

Sam Shirazi

And then, you know, realistically, he's closer to the bag of wing of the party and he's been a radio host for a while. he said some things that I'm sure the Democrats are going to try to find and put out there. And so more moderate voters might also be turned off by him.

07:39.42

Sam Shirazi

And so you could see a scenario where John Reed performs relatively poorly compared to the rest of the ticket, maybe not as bad as E.W. Jackson did, but, you know, maybe a few points worse than the rest of the ticket just by the fact that there's some discomfort with him from parts of the base and there may be discomfort by moderate voters based on his background being on radio and having said various things. So, you know, the conventional wisdom is this is not great news for the Virginia GOP right now because they probably just wanted someone in the lieutenant governor's spot who wouldn't make a lot of waves and wouldn't be that important one way or another.

08:17.50

Sam Shirazi

and I think that was the hope with Pat Harity. He was the establishment figure that the Republicans were hoping to put in LG. And, you know, he's had a long history in Fairfax County, I'm sure he was probably going to be pretty generic Republican for lieutenant governor. He may not have excited the base that much, but he probably wasn't going to rock the vote rock the boat, and he might have appealed to some more moderate voters. Now you don't have that. Unfortunately, he had those health issues. And again, I hope Pat Harrety makes a speedy recovery, but the reality is he did withdraw.

08:49.38

Sam Shirazi

And so you have John Reed now as a Republican nominee, and he's creating a lot of issues for the Virginia GOP right now. And I think the Virginia Republicans for the past four years or so had been in a relatively good spot, because if you think about 2021, Governor Youngkin came in He brought a lot of discipline, a lot of money, a lot of organization.

09:11.11

Sam Shirazi

He was able to win in 2021 and he was able to flip the House of Delegates and and kind of bring the Virginia GOP back.

09:19.78

Sam Shirazi

But And even though he wasn't able to win the House of Delegates or State Senate 2023, they were still relatively competitive. The Virginia GOP flipped a the second district in 2022. 2024, Virginia GOP did better than i think they they were hoping for in in terms of keeping the race within six points.

09:41.30

Sam Shirazi

And so... The last four years have been pretty good for the Virginia GOP in the grand scheme of things. And if you look at what happened when during the first Trump administration in 2017, it was a really rough time for the Virginia GOP. And they kind of imploded during the four years of Trump's first presidency. That started in 2017 when Ralph Northam had a big win in the governor's race.

10:05.35

Sam Shirazi

The GOP lost a bunch of House of Delegates seats. And then 2018, they They lost three House seats where that that the Democrats were able to flip in Virginia.

10:17.93

Sam Shirazi

And then 2019, they lost the state Senate and they lost more seats in the House of Delegates. And the Democrats got the first tried pe trifecta in Virginia in 30 years. And the the Republicans went from having like 67 seats in the Virginia House of Delegates or 66 seats down to 45 seats by the time Trump left office. So they lost like 20 seats in the Virginia House of Delegates.

10:43.18

Sam Shirazi

And there was a real implosion within the first Trump term. And as I mentioned, Governor Youngkin kind of brought them back from the brink. And obviously part of that was just the reality. There was a Democrat in the White House and and there tends to be swings in Virginia whenever there's a change in the White House.

10:58.69

Sam Shirazi

But the the first Trump years were pretty bad for the Virginia GOP. And I think the way things were going, even before what happened with John Reed, it was looking pretty dicey. And it looked like things might revert back to that time period for the Virginia GOP.

11:15.23

Sam Shirazi

And now with all these issues with John Reed, there's the possibility that like that gets turbocharged because, you know, their their ticket is not in a great place right now. And I also wanted to talk about a little bit of a different topic, although related, and that is President Trump reaching almost the 100 day mark of his presidency and typically around the 100 day mark.

11:37.24

Sam Shirazi

There is a lot of commentary. There are polls. People try to see where the president is. What's the pulse? Is he popular? Is he not popular? And so we've seen a lot of polls coming out about the Trump approval rating. Frankly, I wish we would get some more Virginia polls because i think in some ways those are more interesting.

11:54.86

Sam Shirazi

But we've been getting one after another. I would say this week there's been at least 10 Trump approval rating polls, and they all roughly show the same thing. So Trump approval is somewhere in the ballpark of between 40 and 45 percent, whereas his disapproval is roughly in the ballpark of 55 to 60 percent.

12:15.77

Sam Shirazi

And that's largely been driven by the fact that the economy's not doing great because of some of the issues with the tariffs. And one of President Trump's core competencies had been the economy.

12:29.04

Sam Shirazi

At least that was the perception among the public. And he's really lost that. And his economic handling has gone negative. And once your economic handling goes negative, that's not great news because it's hard to regain economic competency.

12:41.88

Sam Shirazi

And then even immigration, which has been one of his core strengths, that has his approval and that has gone down. And so that's overall dragging his approval rating down.

12:53.03

Sam Shirazi

And while presidential approval rating isn't everything, and it doesn't automatically mean the Democrats are going to gain all those voters who are starting to disapprove of President Trump, it certainly doesn't help when you're running in Virginia as a Republican and then President Trump is in negative approval.

13:08.27

Sam Shirazi

And again, I hope we get a Virginia poll because that would show, okay, well, Trump's approval rating is going down. Is that actually being translated into votes for Republicans? the Democratic candidates in Virginia?

13:19.44

Sam Shirazi

Does Abigail Spanberger get a bump compared to the previous polls because Trump has become more unpopular? I'm sure at some point we will get a Virginia poll, and I think it will be interesting to see does the overall national disapprovals of President Trump going up, is that reflected in the state-specific Spanberger versus Sears polls in Virginia?

13:41.13

Sam Shirazi

And, you know, I think the other thing the John Reed issues create right now in Virginia is a sense of chaos and also a sense of perhaps more demoralization among the Virginia GOP, because, you know, it's just not a good headline, not something you want to be dealing with as you're trying to head into the election cycle. And does it mean that some more donors sit on the sideline? Does it mean that the base isn't as fired up because for you know they're seeing that there's issues with the ticket and and the governor is asking the lieutenant governor candidate to drop out and Winston Sears is kind of quiet right now and it's unclear what's what's her position on this.

14:22.84

Sam Shirazi

And so the whole thing is creating more and more issues for the Virginia GOP at a time when they really need to be unified. They really need to get their act together because they're heading into a tough election this November, regardless of what was going to happen with their ticket.

14:37.59

Sam Shirazi

And, you know, I think one of the things I've been struggling with is to see, you know, what is building up into November. i mean, you want to keep an open mind as a political analyst. You don't want to assume, okay This is 100% going to be a massive blue wave because it could not be. I want to keep in mind in 2024, a lot of people thought the Democrats would do well after Kamala Harris became the Democratic nominee. Obviously, she didn't win the election. And i want to keep an open mind. I don't want to assume that, you know, whatever's going on is automatically going to be translated into votes for Democrats.

15:13.46

Sam Shirazi

But, I mean, the reality is there's a lot going against the Republicans and there's a lot going for the Democrats. And I think one of the challenges is going to be looking at the House of Delegates races, you know which ones are starting to slip away from the Republicans, which ones are starting to come on the board. And you know as the build as a wave might be building on the Democratic side, are we talking about a different playing field than in the beginning? Because if you asked me in January, you know I could tell you here are probably the five districts that are going to be most competitive in the current environment.

15:48.71

Sam Shirazi

I think if you ask me in October, what are the five districts that are going to be competitive, it's almost certainly going to be different, possibly depending on what happens during the year. And at this point, we're seeing seats move around and it's not the same seats even in you know late in April than it was in January, because the reality is,

16:08.26

Sam Shirazi

The ground's moving. The Virginia GOP is having these problems. And we're also seeing the issues that President Trump's having with his approval rating. We're seeing Elon Musk has even lower approval rating than President Trump in terms of his work with Doge.

16:25.14

Sam Shirazi

And obviously, the federal government impact to Virginia has been pretty big, and the cuts that have been going on. So there's just like a lot of things going on that have generally not been great for the Virginia GOP.

16:37.61

Sam Shirazi

And I think the role of Governor Youngkin is interesting because he's obviously on his way out. He's got a few more months left as governor. And, you know, as any governor would would like, they they would want a candidate from their own party to win. he wants to leave Virginia.

16:55.11

Sam Shirazi

but on high note and and have his party win the governor's race and do well in the other races. But that's not really the way it's looking right now. And I did think it was interesting that he was the one who called John Reed. And i assume Winston Sears didn't want to get involved with it. And he wanted Governor, yeah she wanted Governor Youngkin to do it.

17:12.98

Sam Shirazi

But the reality is, you know, Governor Youngkin is not going to be on the ballot. And he's the most prominent Virginia Republican right now, but he's not the one that's going to be on the ticket running with John Reed.

17:24.13

Sam Shirazi

And so at some point, Winston Sears has got to say something. And I'm guessing she's probably hoping that John Reed will withdraw before she has to say something. But if John Reed is determined to stay on the ticket, there's not a lot that Winston Sears can do other than run with him. And, and you know, we've You know, it might be part of the strategy that this stuff comes out now in April. It kind of plays out. And frankly, you know, by the next month, given everything that's going on in D.C., like no one's really going to remember this. And he'll just kind of John Reed would be on the ticket and everything will move on. I mean that's one scenario.

18:01.28

Sam Shirazi

The other scenario is now reporters, they're going to be doing digging. They're going to look at it into John Reed's past. You know, if there's any sort of skeletons, I'm sure they'll find it. And so you might get this drip, drip, drip when things start coming out and it's just going to create more and more headaches for Virginia GOP.

18:17.20

Sam Shirazi

The other option is, and i again, I don't know what John Reed's going to do. In theory, he could withdraw. And then the process would be that the Virginia GOP under Virginia law, as long as he he withdraws early enough, they would get to pick a nominee through an internal party party process.

18:33.23

Sam Shirazi

The primary ship has already sailed the Virginia GOP. Department of Elections has announced there's not going to be a primary for the Virginia LG spot because Pat Harity was true. So there's no way the primary can happen because John Reed was the only candidate who qualified and no one else was able to make the ballot except Pat Herity and he's withdrawn. So any process would be a kind of internal Virginia GOP process.

18:58.84

Sam Shirazi

And that would obviously take time and it'll be messy. and And, you know, regardless of what John Reed decides to do, there's already been some hard feelings. And I think it's just the reality when there's any sort of upheaval like this in the party, there's going to be issues between the different factions within the party.

19:19.77

Sam Shirazi

Now, that's not to say the Democrats are you know completely drama free. Obviously, they have a race for both lieutenant governor and attorney general. There'll be primaries in both those races. I will say for the most part, both those races have been relatively clean, at least publicly. There hasn't been a whole lot of bad blood aired.

19:40.20

Sam Shirazi

I'm sure as voting gets closer and closer, we may see some more jabs between the candidates. But realistically, you you know, in this environment with these candidates, you know, my sense is whoever ends up being the nominee for LG and AG, the party will quickly unify behind them unless something crazy happens. And I think the the Democratic ticket is going to be relatively stable.

20:02.51

Sam Shirazi

and There isn't going to be a lot of bad feelings after the primary, at least publicly. And so i think... the Democratic ticket entering the summer and fall campaign will be in pretty good shape, particularly if the Republicans are in a little bit of chaos. And, you know, I'm just not sure what the Republican plan is for this November, because it seems like things are just getting worse and worse. And there isn't really any sort of master plan to get the ship back in shape and you know and i don't realistically I don't know what could be done at this stage.

20:39.52

Sam Shirazi

You know, if if I had to guess, there have been some rumblings this week that maybe President Trump will be pulling back from some of the tariffs on China, although obviously that changes day to day. You know, in theory, if the tariffs get pulled back a little bit, economy is more stabilized.

20:54.67

Sam Shirazi

Maybe Doge starts wrapping up its work because there have been more reports, and Elon Musk, I think, said this, that he would be kind of taking a step back at the end of May. So again, maybe the economy stabilizes.

21:05.43

Sam Shirazi

Maybe Elon Musk takes the backseat. Maybe Doge wraps up its work. and And the Virginia GOP can kind of regroup and think about how it wants to run the campaign. The problem is, I mean, particularly on the economic, it's very hard to change perceptions of the economy. Once voters think the economy is not going well, you know it's not like a flip of a switch that says, oh, everything's fine now.

21:26.24

Sam Shirazi

And the Democrats found this out the hard way. I mean, once inflation hit in 2022 timeframe, that inflation... you know that inflation hit, continued until 2024, even though the actual rate of inflation came down, but prices were still high. And there was really no way to change perceptions or you know make things better for the Democrats in terms of the economic message, because it's just really hard in politics to convince someone that the economy going great when maybe they're having a hard time buying groceries or or whatever. And and definitely the Democrats felt that in

22:03.96

Sam Shirazi

2024 and president Trump benefited it. And now the Republicans are getting the reverse of that. Now that they're in power, people are expecting the economy to get better and prices to go down or at least stabilize, but the tariffs have kind of totally shooken things up.

22:20.67

Sam Shirazi

And the other part of it, the things with doge and the firing of federal workers, mean, even if that stuff is a little bit, Less in the fall and the summer.

22:31.63

Sam Shirazi

mean, the reality is people have lost their jobs and they're not going to forget about that. And it's not like, you know, that's something that is going to go away anytime soon. And even the federal workers who are still there.

22:44.40

Sam Shirazi

I mean, the reality is a lot of them have lived with the possibility they could be losing their jobs. So even if they don't end up losing their jobs, they still went through that whole ordeal. And so I think the do the Doge thing is it's tricky because I don't think that, again, if if Elon Musk and Doge kind of wrap up their work, I don't think that's the end of the story for the Virginia GOP. So...

23:05.45

Sam Shirazi

I didn't mean to spend the entire podcast just talking about this, but I do think it is one of those things that the Virginia GOP is it's in a tough spot. And, you know, I'll try to keep an open mind. I'm not going assume Democrats are guaranteed victory. I'm not going to assume they're going to get this massive blowout. I think a lot of things can still change.

23:25.70

Sam Shirazi

politics, you know, one thing happened one day, another thing happens another day. There's a lot of different things that could happen. i don't, I will try to keep my best to to do, do my best to keep an open mind.

23:37.55

Sam Shirazi

But I do think the Virginia GOP is getting to a point where they really have to do some hard thinking and they have to think about getting their act together, frankly, because otherwise, you know, the,

23:49.98

Sam Shirazi

the narrative is there that the Virginia GOP is in trouble. And unless they figure out a way to change that narrative, it's going to be tricky. and And, you know, people can usually tell, okay, when a campaign has momentum, when it doesn't have momentum, and and not to kind of go too off track, but if you think about what happened in 2024, you know, President Biden had that first debate performance, and it was pretty bad. And I think everyone can agree on that. And the narrative was just, you know, he, there was no way he was going to win.

24:22.39

Sam Shirazi

And I think, you know, he tried to stay in that race for a while and obviously that didn't work out. And so the Democrats felt like they had to do some sort of game changer. And obviously the game changer was president Biden dropping out and vice president Harris getting in the race. And I think,

24:37.62

Sam Shirazi

She probably did better than what President Biden was going to do, but it was still very late in the game and it it just wasn't enough and the Democrats weren't able to win in 2024. So I think the danger for the Virginia GOP this year is even if they're able to kind of get their act together, or they're able to figure out some other formula.

24:55.10

Sam Shirazi

That might not be enough because once these things are kind of baked in, it you know, Elections sometimes are these massive ships and you know they're going one direction and it takes a long time to change course.

25:07.70

Sam Shirazi

And you know it it might just be one of those things that it might be too late to completely change things. But you know there is still a decent amount of time, not a whole lot of time, but there is enough time where in theory,

25:20.92

Sam Shirazi

we could get a different outcome in November if the Virginia GOP starts to get its act together and, you know, they figure out the LG race, they get their ticket in order, and then they kind of move on and figure out what they want to do for the general election in November. So, anyways, a lot going on.

25:38.33

Sam Shirazi

I'm sure by the time the next podcast comes out, there'll be a lot of other things to talk about. But for now, that was Federal Fallout, and I hope you'll join me next week. Thanks.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit samshirazi.substack.com

00:00.83

Sam Shirazi

Hi everyone, I'm Sam Shirazi and this is Federal Fallout the 2025 Virginia Elections. This is a special bonus episode to go over some breaking news that happened on Monday in the Republican nomination for Lieutenant Governor. So the front runner, Fairfax Supervisor Pat Herrity has announced that he is withdrawing from the Republican Lieutenant Governor's race.

00:23.72

Sam Shirazi

And that means by default, the other candidate on the primary ballot, John Reid, will be the Republican nominee for Lieutenant Governor. So to set things up, Pat Harrity, he's a supervisor in Fairfax County.

00:35.17

Sam Shirazi

His dad also had that role. So both of them were well known in Fairfax County. And the sense was that he was more of the front runner because he had raised more money. He was more of the establishment figure and he had more backing from the party.

00:49.54

Sam Shirazi

And so there was a sense that in all likelihood, he was more likely than not going to be the Republican nominee. Obviously, the fact that he withdrew is a big deal. The reason he withdrew was that he recently had heart surgery and he had been attempting to soldier on in the primary, but obviously that was not possible given his health issues.

01:10.56

Sam Shirazi

And it goes without saying that I send Pat Herrity my best wishes. I hope he makes a speedy recovery. Hopefully this is not something that will affect him long term and he can make a full recovery.

01:21.69

Sam Shirazi

But obviously it was something that meant that he was not going to be able to continue on the campaign trail.

01:28.76

Sam Shirazi

So this also means that the Republican ticket for this November is set in Virginia. So for governor, we are going to have as the Republican nominee, Lieutenant Governor Winston Sears.

01:40.22

Sam Shirazi

For attorney general, we are going to have the incumbent Jason Miyares running for reelection. And then obviously for Lieutenant Governor, we will have John Reid as the Republican nominee. And I looked up Virginia election law, so you didn't have to. And it appears that because,

01:57.46

Sam Shirazi

Pat Herrity withdrew before the start of early voting that the Virginia can just go ahead and cancel the Republican primary for LG because if Pat Herrity withdraws, there's only one other candidate. By default, John Reid is going to be the Republican nominee.

02:14.59

Sam Shirazi

And so there's no need to have a statewide primary for Lieutenant Governor on the Republican side. Obviously, there's still going to be some primaries for Republicans in the House of Delegates in some seats, and there's going to be some local seats where there might be primaries for the Republicans.

02:32.05

Sam Shirazi

But that's obviously a lot fewer than having a statewide primary where every voter in Virginia, in theory, could choose to vote in the Republican primary. The Democrats are still going to have their statewide primary, both for LG and AG. So there will be a primary on June 17th.

02:48.68

Sam Shirazi

Again, Virginia voters have the option of voting in either the Republican or the Democratic primary. There's going to be a lot fewer people on the Republican side who are going to have a primary in a few districts, whereas the Democrats, the entire state, there's going to be a primary on the Democratic side. So one interesting thing that this change might do right off the bat is we'll see if some more independents and other people who who typically lean to the Republicans, because there's not going to be a primary on the Republican side statewide, do they choose to go into the Democratic primary and vote in June 17th? Will that make a difference? Who are they going to vote for?

03:32.83

Sam Shirazi

I mean, realistically, my sense is that and most of the time people don't cross over and vote in the other party's primary. It's just, I mean, you hear about it, but the practical thing is it's just not something that typically makes a huge difference in these races. So I don't anticipate that being a huge deal.

03:50.99

Sam Shirazi

But at the same time, the Republicans have their nominees set. And I wanted to talk a little bit about what this might mean for November. So as I mentioned, Pat Herrity, he is known to be more of the establishment figure. There was a hope by some Republicans that he might be able to win over some crossover voters in Fairfax County.

04:14.18

Sam Shirazi

And there there was even a sense that, well, maybe the top of the ticket's looking pretty tough for Republicans, but Pat Herrity might win some of these more traditional Republicans that have moved away from the GOP in recent years towards the Democrats. He might be able to get people to split their tickets. So even if the Republicans lose at the top of the ticket, there was a chance that maybe Pat Herrity might win for lieutenant governor.

04:37.96

Sam Shirazi

think obviously now that he's withdrawn, that becomes less of a possibility. I think on the flip side, John Reid, he is more of a political outsider. He's had a long career in politics, but he hasn't necessarily had elected office. And in recent years, he's been more known for being a radio host.

04:58.72

Sam Shirazi

I will say that compared to Pat Herrity, John Reid is probably closer to the MAGA side of the political aisle on the Republican side. So it's possible that him being the nominee will fire up more of the base, which obviously at the top of the ticket with Winsome Sears, there isn't necessarily as much of a excitement for her among the more hardcore MAGA base because she has been a little bit arm's length in the past to President Trump.

05:28.01

Sam Shirazi

However, now it doesn't appear that Lieutenant Governor Sears is going to distance herself from Trump, but still there have been statements in the past that I think have upset some of the more hardcore MAGA base. And John Reid, maybe being on the ticket, might be able to excite some of those people to come out.

05:44.07

Sam Shirazi

Now, realistically, I don't think this is something where people are that swayed by who the lieutenant governor nominee is. I think it's unlikely that... This is going to change that many votes in the grand scheme of things. But obviously it shakes things up because I think most people were assuming that Pat Herrity was going to be the Republican nominee.

06:04.70

Sam Shirazi

And I think Democrats are excited at the possibility of John Reid being the Republican nominee because whenever someone's on radio, they've said a lot of things. And I think there's a lot of things that Democrats now are going to spend time going back, looking at his record, trying to bring up some of the things that he said in the past.

06:23.78

Sam Shirazi

And then when he's on the ticket with Winsome Sears, the Democrats will try to tie that to Winsome Sears because they'll say, oh look at this thing that John Reid said that – Winston Sears is running with him and she hasn't distanced himself from him.

06:35.33

Sam Shirazi

So I think the Democrats are going to try that dynamic. And I will say in recent Virginia history, there was something that happened kind of like this in the Democrats were successful in 2013 with the Republican Lieutenant Governor candidate E.W. Jackson.

06:53.12

Sam Shirazi

So the Democrats were able to find a lot of the things E.W. Jackson had said. They put that out there. Compared to the rest of the ticket, E.W. Jackson did pretty poorly in 2013. He lost by almost 11%, even though the governor's race was relatively close.

07:11.46

Sam Shirazi

And so I think you could see Democrats trying that strategy with John Reid. I think the only issue with that is realistically, there just isn't a lot of ticket splitting these days, even compared to 2013. So I do think that most people vote based on the top of the ticket.

07:26.72

Sam Shirazi

think most people are going to be straight ticket voters on both sides. The only slight change might be that in in theory, Pat Harity might have gotten some people who voted for Spanberger at the top of the ticket to vote for him and in LF that's not going to happen now. In theory, maybe some people who vote Sears at the top of the ticket, they vote Republican. Maybe they don't vote for John Reid for LG.

07:56.06

Sam Shirazi

At least that's the Democrats hope. Again, I don't I think we're talking about handfuls of votes here and there. this isn't going to be any sort of Huge game changer for the LG race. But I do think it it kind of sets November up early for the Republicans. And so another benefit the Republicans are going to have is their ticket set. They can start coordinating more. They can start running more. The local cam committees know who their statewide nominees are going to be.

08:24.34

Sam Shirazi

And so in that sense, that might help a little bit. The Democrats will have to wait until after June 17th to figure out who their LG and AG nominees are going to be.

08:34.38

Sam Shirazi

You know, the the one person I'm curious to see what happens in his future is Pat Herrrity. So if he's not running for lieutenant governor this year, he's up for reelection in 2027 for his Fairfax County supervisor seat. That's something that's been targeted by Democrats in the past.

08:51.86

Sam Shirazi

I think, obviously, if there's going to be hits to the local economy due to the cuts in the federal government, I'll be curious to see what Herrity decides to do in his future. Does he decide to run for reelection in 2027?

09:04.67

Sam Shirazi

Or does he decide maybe it's the time for him to retire due to his health issues? And again, I, you know, my heart goes out to Pat Herrity. I hope he takes time and makes a full recovery and is back out on the campaign trail one way or another in the future.

09:18.76

Sam Shirazi

But obviously, it'll be interesting to see what he decides to do in 2027. And if he decides to run for reelection. So there's been a lot of twists and turns already in the 2025 Virginia elections, and we're just getting started. I'm sure we'll see more things happening. I'd be shocked if this is the only surprise before November, and I think I will try my best to keep everyone updated. I'm not going to always be doing these special bonus episodes, but I do think that this was important enough, given that we won't have a statewide Republican primary, to just give an update.

09:51.38

Sam Shirazi

Let people know that the Republicans ticket is set. Let people know that the Democrats still have a primary on June 17th. And I will say this. I do think the June 17 primary on the Democratic side is important for a couple reasons. One, I talked about it in the past, you know, it looks like Democrats are in.

10:11.70

Sam Shirazi

in the driver's seat right now in Virginia, obviously that could change, but right now it looks like things are looking pretty good for the Democrats. And so whoever wins the Lieutenant Governor nominee on Democratic side on June 17th, there's a decent chance that they may end up being the next Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General in Virginia.

10:29.30

Sam Shirazi

So I think it's an important election in that sense. You know, I think sometimes with these primaries, there's not a lot of focus on them. People are focused on November. But obviously, you need to get through the primary first.

10:41.74

Sam Shirazi

And i know some of us who are hardcore political people like to pay attention to the races, like to pay attention to what's going on, who the candidates are.

10:51.34

Sam Shirazi

I'll probably do another episode at some point before the primary on the LG and AG race on the Democratic side. But I encourage everyone who feels inclined to vote in the Democratic primary in Virginia on June 17th to do their research, pick the candidates they think would be the best for the LG and AG spots, and to just take some time and think about June 17th as opposed to just focusing on November, because I think that's going to be an important

11:19.76

Sam Shirazi

date for the Democrats. And, you know, overall, it's It's going to be an interesting year in Virginia, as I mentioned. I think this announcement on the Republican side settles things, but obviously we have to wait and see what happens on the Democratic side. So anyways, thanks everyone for listening. I will be out back on Saturday morning with the regular podcast episode, but just wanted to do this quick update on what happened today in Virginia. And so thanks everyone for listening, and I will catch you next time on Federal Fallout.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit samshirazi.substack.com

00:00.77

Sam Shirazi

Hi everyone, I'm Sam Shirazi and this is Federal Fallout the 2025 Virginia Elections. This is a special bonus episode looking at the latest Virginia campaign finance numbers.

00:12.58

Sam Shirazi

so April 15th was not just tax day. It was also the deadline for campaigns to file their first quarter campaign finance numbers in Virginia. and I should note that obviously we're a long way off from the general election. A lot can still change. These numbers are early. They're from the first three months of the year.

00:32.42

Sam Shirazi

We're still to have a lot more time to figure out what's going on in Virginia and also what the fundraising is looking like, but this is an early opportunity to just take a look, see where things are, which campaigns are raising money, which are maybe lagging behind a little bit.

00:47.32

Sam Shirazi

And I wanted to just kind of give a quick overview in this bonus episode. And I'm going to take a little bit of time. I'll talk about the statewide offices first. I actually found the House of Delegates numbers are more interesting because I think there's a lot going on with some of the races that are going to be competitive this year.

01:03.95

Sam Shirazi

Okay, so let's start first with governor. In the governor's race, Democratic nominee Abigail Spanberger has raised more than twice the amount of the Republican nominee, Lieutenant Governor Winsome Sears. So Spanberger raised about $6.7 million dollars in the first quarter, whereas Winsome Sears, she raised a little bit over $3.1 And if you look at cash on hand, Spanberger has a big cash on hand advantage. She has over $11 million dollars right now as of the filing, whereas Sears had a little over $4 million.

01:38.61

Sam Shirazi

So Abigail Spanberger, she's always been good at fundraising. And you know that's just one of her strengths. So you're seeing that reflected in the governor number. Sears is you know raising it a respectable amount, but certainly behind Spanberger.

01:52.54

Sam Shirazi

And I think that's going to be one of the dynamics to look for this year. is Spanberger continuously raising more money than Sears? For Lieutenant Governor, the Republican Pat Haraday has raised the most amount in the first quarter with 540,000. That's ahead his that's far ahead of his GOP primary rival John Reed, who raised about $178,000. On the Democratic side, most of the main candidates raised between $300,000, and the leading Democrat was LeVar Stoney, who raised $428,000. You will see in these contested primaries that sometimes the donors will wait to see who wins the primary before they make donations.

02:35.59

Sam Shirazi

Uh, that's basically because they don't want to necessarily give a donation to someone who might not win the primary. And especially in Louisiana governor primary, there's so many people running, it's a little unclear who's the front runner. So I expect after the primary more so on the democratic side for the numbers to really jump up because whoever becomes a nominee, get a big donation from some of the big donors. And so, I think it's a little early to know who has,

03:00.08

Sam Shirazi

the lead in in fundraising for lieutenant governor for the general election. I think for the primary, you know, the the leading candidates on the Democratic side certainly are raising a respectable amount of money. I don't know if this is the type of primary where money is going to necessarily decide things because it's not like one of them is raising huge amounts more than the the others. So I didn't think the lieutenant governor primary, it didn't really give too much clarity in terms of who's considered the front runner given the fundraising numbers.

03:28.65

Sam Shirazi

Okay, now let's move to Attorney General. The incumbent Republican, Jason Meares, raised by far the most with $1.5 million. That was followed by Jay Jones on the Democratic side, who raised $931,000, which was much more than her his Democratic primary opponent, Shannon Taylor, who raised about $534,000.

03:50.05

Sam Shirazi

And this is, again, one of those things where I expect whoever becomes a Democratic nominee for AG will get a big influx of cash after the primary. So I wouldn't necessarily read too much into the fact that Jason Meares is up right now in the money because he's an incumbent. Obviously, he's a Republican nominee. He's getting the donations.

04:07.83

Sam Shirazi

I think whoever becomes a Democratic nominee will get a infusion of cash after the primary. And I do think that given the fact that Jay Jones has a decent fundraising lead, that does help him in the primary. If you look at cash on hand, he has over twice the cash on hand that Shannon Taylor has. So Jay Jones has almost one point five million dollars in cash on hand.

04:28.85

Sam Shirazi

Whereas Shannon Taylor has six hundred sixty six thousand. So I think, you know, this is a primary where the money is definitely on the side of Jay Jones right now. And I think that's another factor that might make him the front runner right now for the Democratic democratic nomination for attorney general.

04:45.76

Sam Shirazi

Okay, now let's move on to the House of Delegates, and I won't do every single Delegates district because that's a lot for just fundraising numbers. I did want to note that generally in the targeted seats, the Democrats have been out raising at least this quarter, and there are some GOP incumbents that fell behind in terms of the fundraising, and I think...

05:06.20

Sam Shirazi

It's, it's just a sign that maybe things are tilting one way right now in the house of delegates. Now I should note that under Virginia law during the general assembly session, uh, the members cannot fundraise while the session is in, is there is a general assembly session.

05:22.07

Sam Shirazi

However, That was not the entire first quarter. And some of these incumbents have not raised a whole lot of money. And so I don't think you can just say, well, there was a session going on. And in some of the races, the incumbents are even behind in cash on hand, which is usually a pretty bad sign because the incumbents have a big war chest that they've built over the years.

05:42.62

Sam Shirazi

And so the fact that some of them are behind and cash on hand is not a great sign for the Republicans. And I think it's just a sign this year that the Democrats are going to have a pretty decent fundraising advantage if things go the way they're going. Because if you think about it, Democrats are fired up, there's grassroots fundraising, there's the big institutional donors that are coming in.

06:02.13

Sam Shirazi

And frankly, usually when there are also PACs and corporate lobbyists who are trying to figure out who to donate to, they're trying they usually want to donate to the party that's in the majority and or the party that's going to be in the majority of the next session. And right now, both those things are the Democrats. So I think there's a lot of things working against the Republicans trying to fundraise right now in the House of Delegates.

06:27.22

Sam Shirazi

You saw in some districts, like the 41st District in Southwest Virginia, the Democrat Lily Franklin raised a lot more than the Republican incumbent, Chris Obenshain, and she has more cash on hand. And so that's obviously good sign for her if she has, at this early stage, already has more money than the Republican.

06:48.68

Sam Shirazi

And one one thing to keep in mind this time, there aren't too many Democratic primaries. So some of these Democratic challengers are starting to get the big checks early because they don't face a primary. i think in some of the districts, the donors are going to wait and see who the Democratic nominee is.

07:02.31

Sam Shirazi

But in some of these other districts, the The Democratic nominee is already picked against the Republican incumbent. And that obviously helps fundraising because you can go out and say you're taking on this Republican and that helps bring in the checks. So overall, I would say the Democrats definitely have an advantage right now in fundraising in the House of Delegates. You know, it's it's one of those things where.

07:25.70

Sam Shirazi

The donors might be sensing that this is the time to go on the offense and try to pick up some seats. and And these challengers are having an easier time, obviously fundraising, when they can run against what's going on in D.C.

07:38.90

Sam Shirazi

and run against the Trump administration. And I guess one thing I should mention, I mean, there's I talked about some of the top tier battlegrounds on my podcast about the House of Delegates. and And in those districts, the Democrats generally are are are raising a decent amount of money.

07:52.50

Sam Shirazi

Some of those districts, the Republicans are also raising a a decent amount of money. I did want to talk about some of the second tier races because... While it's early, we don't know what's going to happen. I think there is a possibility that Democrats have a good night in November and there might be a bigger wave than people anticipate. And sometimes in those waves, incumbents who didn't think that they were going to be in competitive seats or incumbents who who haven't faced a competitive election in a long time, sometimes are caught sleeping and then they might lose their election.

08:20.08

Sam Shirazi

And so I think that's potentially a danger for Republicans because Republicans, Obviously, we don't know how big of a wave it's going to be. It could be kind of a normal election where Democrats might be able to flip a few seats.

08:32.17

Sam Shirazi

It could also be like a 2017 scenario where Democrats flip double-digit seats. It's just too early to tell. But I do think the Democrats are more in the offense mindset and more willing to perhaps go in some of these reach districts where Republicans might not have thought that they have to defend them, they Democrats are willing to compete in them. The donors are willing to make donations.

08:54.99

Sam Shirazi

And so you you can't necessarily assume it's off the table because of some of those dynamics. And I just wanted to point out one district. So this is House District 66. This is south of Fredericksburg in Swatsylvania County, primarily.

09:08.89

Sam Shirazi

You have the Republican incumbent Bobby Orak, he is being being challenged by Spotsalvania school board member Nicole Cole. And I just thought this was interesting because it kind of shows you some of the dynamics that might be in play. This district voted for Trump by about two points.

09:25.71

Sam Shirazi

So obviously it's it's a little bit of a reach for Democrats to try to win it. But in this environment, I don't think it's necessarily impossible. And you saw Nicole Cole, the Democrat, she raised over $55,000. Whereas the Republican Bobby Orak, he raised less than $2,000.

09:40.37

Sam Shirazi

He raised $1,950. Obviously, that's not a huge amount of money. And I don't know if that's because he he doesn't necessarily think he's in a competitive race or because he has a huge war chest.

09:52.27

Sam Shirazi

So I will say a lot of these incumbents have built war chests over the years. If you look at the cash on hand, Nicole he Cole has about $50,000, whereas Bobby Orak has $218,000.

10:03.54

Sam Shirazi

Bobby O'Rourke still has a decent money advantage. The issue is there's still a lot of time into the election. And if each quarter looks like this quarter, the money advantage is going to start dwindling away. And I think there is a risk for the Republicans that some of these secondary tier districts where they haven't run a competitive race in a long time, they aren't necessarily taking the race super seriously.

10:24.53

Sam Shirazi

If there's a blue wave that comes in November, it just tends to wash everyone away. And especially if you haven't invested in the race and it's more of a you you think it's not competitive, whereas the other side is competing, there is a risk you might be able to lose the seat.

10:40.24

Sam Shirazi

And, you know, just to spend one minute on the 66th district, it's one of those districts where if you get a surge of Democratic turnout and you have a few Trump voters in November flipping and the rest of the Trump voters are not necessarily as engaged and you get lower turnout on the Republican side, I that doesn't take a whole lot to flip that district. So while, yes, historically it's a Republican district,

11:02.66

Sam Shirazi

Bobby Oreck's been there a while. I don't think you can just assume, well, this is never going to be competitive because we don't know what the margin is going to be at the top of the ticket. Is it going to be a five point? Is it going to be a really, really close race? And maybe when some Sears might be able to pull it off, is it going to be a five point Spanberger win? Is it going to be a 10 point Spanberger win?

11:21.24

Sam Shirazi

We just don't know. I think if we're in five point Spanberger win territory, Bobby O'Rourke in the 66 is probably safe. If we're getting closer to 10-point Spanberger victory territory, I mean, that's where things could get dicey for some of these incumbents in the more reached districts for Democrats.

11:37.50

Sam Shirazi

And I think, you know, realistically, in this type of environment this year, i don't think any incumbent in a seat that is single-digit Trump should necessarily feel 100% safe.

11:50.61

Sam Shirazi

You know, there's an old expression that you're either running unopposed you're going to run scared and it's better to run scared. And so I think we might be entering into that environment for the Republicans, but I don't necessarily see all the Republican incumbents taking their races as seriously as maybe they should. So anyways, one thing to keep in mind, I did want to just quickly talk about two other things.

12:10.31

Sam Shirazi

you know, what is money for? Sometimes we just fixate on the fundraising numbers without really thinking through, okay, what you know what's the actual use of having this money? And while money isn't everything, money can't win you every single race, I do think it's important.

12:23.19

Sam Shirazi

There are things you have to pay for. You have to pay for mailers, you have to pay for TV ads, if it's a really high profile race, radio ads. campaign staff, people that knock on the doors, you you know, all that costs money. Obviously the top of the ticket will probably help you, but the more you as the individual candidate can spend on your race, the more you can spend getting your name out there.

12:43.54

Sam Shirazi

I think that helps you. And and so while i don't think just because someone has a big but fundraising advantage doesn't automatically, they're going to win.

12:53.36

Sam Shirazi

It certainly doesn't hurt if you have a fundraising advantage. And I think it's one of those metrics that you look for in races to try to figure out who might be serious trying to take on some of these Republican incumbents.

13:05.03

Sam Shirazi

And the second thing I should say, so right now, I would say both at the governor level and some of these House of Delegates races, the Republicans are a disadvantage in fundraising. I think there's basically two possibilities this year.

13:17.36

Sam Shirazi

One of them is some of the big Republican donors look at Virginia, they look at things are getting kind of dicey and they're just like, look, it's just not worth us spending the money here because it's, it's not going to go well. And we might as well save our money donated in the midterms.

13:32.66

Sam Shirazi

You know, that is a danger for the Virginia GOP. You know, obviously they could make the argument, well, you don't want a huge democratic landslide. We still have to try to compete. Even if it's a tough race this year, we don't want all these incumbent Republicans to lose.

13:47.41

Sam Shirazi

Sure. I mean, that's something you can tell donors. It's not necessarily the most compelling message. Whereas if you looked at 2021, Governor Junkin was able to raise money. And in 2023, because the Republicans had credible paths of winning and that that led to Republicans getting a lot of money in Virginia, more so than they had in 2017 and 2019.

14:07.82

Sam Shirazi

But obviously, that was a better political environment for Republicans. And I think the risk right now when the political environment isn't great for Republicans is that some of these big donors are just going to sit on the sidelines.

14:19.78

Sam Shirazi

I will say that reg Virginia does not have any campaign finance limits. So if a big donor wants to come in, you don't need a whole lot of them to start filling in the gaps.

14:28.75

Sam Shirazi

Obviously, Governor Youngkin has been a good fundraiser during his time as governor. He's able to bring in the donations. His PAC might have a lot of money. We'll see if he's willing to spend it this year in Virginia or if he wants to hold on to his money for future political ambitions.

14:43.63

Sam Shirazi

Again, he has the same problem where he might if he spends all his money in Virginia this year and it doesn't go well, you've kind of blown the money. I think the big wild card, and this is the thing that no one really knows what's going to happen, is Elon Musk. Does he come into Virginia?

14:59.13

Sam Shirazi

I think the sense is that after what happened in Wisconsin, if Elon Musk does come into Virginia, it would help the Democrats. But obviously he has a lot of money. And I do think there's a possibility after Wisconsin that he doesn't necessarily stay on the campaign trail. He's not the face of the Republican campaign because they didn't really see that working out well in Wisconsin.

15:20.62

Sam Shirazi

But, you know, he might donate to some of the PACs and kind of indirectly get his money in here. And then that get trickles down to the Republican candidates. Obviously, the Democrats will try to figure that out and try to figure out where the money's coming from and try to tie it back to Elon Musk if he ends up donating.

15:36.87

Sam Shirazi

But it's a little bit different when he's just making donations as opposed to in Wisconsin when he directly went on the campaign trail. It was pretty easy to tie the Republicans. to him. So we'll just have to wait and see. and And he's not the only big Republican donors. I mean, there are other Republican donors out there, and they might be able to fill in the gap if they choose to, because the reality is the Democratic grassroots are fired up.

15:58.33

Sam Shirazi

Big Democratic institutional donors are fired up. They are going to be donating it this year in Virginia. And I think that's just one of the factors among many to look for in terms of how big of a victory Democrats are trying to get, because right now they're definitely on the offense.

16:12.70

Sam Shirazi

Their mentality is, We're going to try to win the governor's race big, and we're going to try to flip a lot of House of Delegates seats. And the Republicans have to think through, you know, what is their strategy to counter that? What is their strategy to get the donors to buy in, to try to win the governor's race, to try to save some of these Republican incumbents in the House of Delegates?

16:30.48

Sam Shirazi

Because again, i mean, I've talked about it. the The risk is things start slipping away for the Republicans. It's still early. a lot can change. lot of the donors could come in the future finance, campaign finance reports can look different. So I don't want to dwell on it, but I did want to just kind of touch base on where campaign finance is looking right now. So that's about it right now for campaign finance. Obviously we'll keep you updated as the future reports come in. And thanks everyone for listening and I'll see you next week on Federal Falling.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit samshirazi.substack.com

00:00.77

Sam Shirazi

Hi, everyone. I'm Sam Shirazi, and this is Federal Fallout, the 2025 Virginia elections. This episode, I will be interviewing Democratic consultant Ben Tribbett. He's the found founder of Pocket Aces Consulting.

00:14.91

Sam Shirazi

And I'm also old enough to remember when Ben had his blog, which was one of the original go-to sources for Virginia politics. And now you can get his talk hot takes on X.

00:28.06

Sam Shirazi

So Ben, what made you want to take the leap from giving hot takes online to starting your own consulting firm?

00:36.63

Ben

I got into politics when I was very young.

00:40.73

Ben

And so when I was in high school, I started doing volunteering for campaigns. And then I got to manage my first campaign when I was still a teenager, but which was for a Fairfax County school board race.

00:54.34

Ben

By the time I was 21, I managed my first winning delegate race where we unseated a Republican incumbent. And from that point, I was kind of off to the races from the consulting side of things.

01:06.01

Ben

And so I actually was there before I started the blog. And when I went to Las Vegas to play poker full time, I decided to start Not Larry Sabato, the blog, as a way to sort of stay in touch with Virginia while I was while i was playing poker.

01:21.88

Ben

So I did that for about a year and a half and got the blog off the ground. And so by the time I got back into political consulting, after I kind of winded down doing the, we'll call it the journalist thing for a few years,

01:35.14

Ben

you know, it was more of a return home for me than it was trying something new.

01:39.97

Sam Shirazi

Got it. Well, I did want to ask you one kind of interesting question about the gambling side of things, because I know Nate Silver and you seem to like gambling. Is there something that maybe attracts people to both politics and gambling?

01:54.21

Ben

Well, first of all, poker is a game of skill, not a game of chance, Sam. So poker players would not consider themselves gamblers. But I do also like to partake in other forms of gambling.

02:04.53

Ben

And I think you know anyone who is doing wagering, especially on stuff like sports, there's certainly a numbers component to it. And that's been the side of politics I've always been on is the looking at precinct numbers, looking at trends, looking at statistics.

02:22.44

Ben

And so I'm trying to figure out what that means and portends for the future. So there's certainly some overlap there.

02:29.24

Sam Shirazi

Got it. Well, I wanted to ask you about being a consultant because after Democrats lost the last election, there was a lot of blame directed at the consultant class. And can you just explain what a consultant does and why they're not all bad?

02:44.15

Ben

Yeah. Well, and I think a lot of that blame was deserved. I mean, the the Democratic consultant class structured very differently than what Republicans do. So when people say, you know, you're a campaign consultant, it means very different things if you're a Democratic consultant or a Republican.

03:03.45

Ben

Democrats tend to be structured in these very rigid sort of a pyramid of a campaign. It's a, you have a staffer on the ground and they have a consultant that deals with each aspect of the spends that they're doing. So they'll have a television consultant, a digital consultant, a male consultant, on larger campaigns, they might bring in an expert that's a field consultant.

03:29.83

Ben

And this is overlaid with your traditional staff. Obviously there's also fundraising consultants. the Republicans tend to do more of a model that is a general consultant. They put bring in one firm that sort of handles all these aspects of your campaign for you.

03:46.73

Ben

And that's the model that Democrats use in California. And that was really what, when we started Pocket Aces, while there's times in which we might do a aspect of a campaign for someone,

03:58.82

Ben

and go into that structure. Generally, our candidates, we're general consultants for, which makes us a very different product than what you see from other democratic firms in Virginia, because we handle everything from the start of a campaign to the finish if we're if we're asked to do that.

04:18.19

Ben

And it I think it makes a campaign People have commented before that they think some of our candidates have had better messaging, for example, like better themes.

04:28.43

Ben

And I think a lot of that revolves around the fact that what they're saying on television, what they're saying on radio, what they're saying in the mailbox, what they're saying on X and social media, it's all the same thing because they have the same people that are working on it instead of having different crews that are getting on a conference call for 10 minutes a week.

04:48.34

Sam Shirazi

I think so sometimes people are a little bit unsure about why the consultants are needed. So kiating can kind of explain the difference between like a campaign manager, or someone working directly on a campaign and why the consultants would need to also be there to kind of come in and help the campaign?

05:04.40

Ben

Yeah, so I think obviously you know each campaign's a little bit different, and I understand in some of the local races why there can be frustration with consultants because if you're running for the county board and in a county and these consultants don't know anything about your local issues, a lot of times people on the ground will say, well, why do we need somebody from DC to come in and tell us how to run for the the county board in Prince William County? Or or you know really, you can insert that anywhere.

05:32.20

Ben

And I think what consultants have is a broader look at the electorate because they're seeing it in so many different areas. So one of the places that we had a large amount of business in 2018 for Pocket Aces was in Orange County, California.

05:52.50

Ben

And it was, if you remember that cycle, sort of Orange County had been a Republican steadily Republican County in California. And in 2016, it flipped to Hillary and everyone realized, wow, there's a ton of stuff that might be in play here.

06:07.03

Ben

And the reason that we did so much work in Orange County, and and there were three Congressional that we worked on there that year, as well as some other races, was it had a lot of overlay with what we had seen in Virginia 2017. And And so as consultants, we were sought after because we had seen kind of the first effects of the Trump presidency, what voters in 2017 were moving against Trump, what voters are being mobilized for primaries, what new people you might expect to come into that primary, and what groups were respondent to different messages. and

06:44.10

Ben

And so, you know, in in Orange County, California, where you have a lot of diversity, know, There's a large Asian population. There's a large population of sort of upper income suburban women that were moving very quickly at that time towards the Democrats.

06:58.74

Ben

These were the exact same thing that had happened in Virginia the year before. And so from a consultant perspective, what a manager that's on the ground there might not be able to do is know exactly what's happening elsewhere and how that might apply to their race.

07:16.36

Ben

We see so much polling data. And look, I know Tip O'Neill said all politics is local, but in this era, all politics is national in terms of how the electorate moves.

07:27.80

Ben

You see very similar moves state to state among demographic groups. I think the reason that Nate Silver became as successful as he was in 08 where people thought he had uncorked this magic formula for 538, was he was really just applying statistics to what he was seeing from how demographic groups were moving and then predicting the outcome of those primaries between Hillary and Obama.

07:53.83

Ben

and And frankly, it was... following a very, very steady pattern state to state among how white working class voters were breaking versus African-American voters versus educated voters.

08:07.60

Ben

And the only place where you saw a real difference in the 08 primaries was Hillary was pulling more of the white vote in southern states.

08:18.54

Ben

There were a little bit more, you know, there was more of sort of African Americans voting for for Barack and white voters voting for Hillary in the south that was evident in those results. Otherwise, basically, it was a direct match group to group around the country in almost every state.

08:37.45

Ben

depending on whether you were looking at a caucus electorate or a primary. And so from a consultant perspective, when we're looking at these campaigns, the movement we see and in one area, if we see polls and in New York and New Jersey, they may very well have application to Virginia. That messaging may have application to Virginia.

08:55.76

Ben

And so that's what we're looking at from consultants is having that broader set of data and understanding what's moving people in this in this time. And you know right now, I would say, Sam, and I know it's a long-winded answer, but you know, as a candidate, you would need a consultant more than ever right now because politics is changing so quickly.

09:20.33

Ben

And so you would you would want to arm yourself with somebody who knew what groups had moved in the 2024 election and what groups were moving now since the 2024 election and whether those groups were over or underrepresented in your district and how you could best speak to them.

09:38.11

Ben

Now's the time you would want to have those kinds of people to be able to help you.

09:42.31

Sam Shirazi

I think it's helpful for people to to hear, you know, the value added that consultants have and not just the negative things you always hear online.

09:50.07

Ben

I would also say, Sam, a lot of people always, when they're saying you know negative things about consultants, and and look, there's plenty of negative things to say, but one of the things that was looking at is look how much money they're making.

10:01.95

Ben

But a lot of times that money that you see on the reports is very misleading. For example, when we do a mail piece for someone, that's the consultant is paying the printing and the postage as part of those payments you see go out. So you might see a check go to a consultant that's for $35,000.

10:20.77

Ben

that that We're probably clearing on something like that $2,000 $3,000. two or three thousand dollars And so while that's not always transparent as transparent as it could be on the finance reports, I think some of the anger that gets put towards campaigns having consultants is they people feel like they are sopping up all the campaign resources when oftentimes that's just not the case.

10:43.90

Sam Shirazi

Before I turn to Virginia, I had one last question because I think these are the people who are the real scam artists. So you've talked a lot about the scam packs and I would call it the grifter industrial complex.

10:54.88

Sam Shirazi

Can you explain the issue and what Democrats can do to address it and maybe why that's more of the real issue as opposed to consultants?

11:01.99

Ben

Yeah. So there's a few pieces of this. Number one is, and I'll make this statement and people are going to hear it and think immediately, well, I think that would ever come out of his mouth. But, the biggest problem facing the democratic party right now is small dollar donors.

11:19.71

Ben

And the reason that the small dollar donors are such a problem is that when large donors came in the party in the, in the past and, you know they might have interests that they were interested in. You might have someone who you know is donating to pro-choice candidates or someone who's donating to candidates who want to see more gun safety or you know go down the list.

11:39.68

Ben

They oftentimes have the the resources to know what's going on in campaigns, to know which candidates are competitive, to know which candidates are just kind of just putting out some b******t.

11:52.93

Ben

These small dollar donors don't have that information and they're set all over the country. So there's nowhere to how to communicate with them. And so they're coming into areas that they don't know anything about and helping to select candidates for those areas that are not necessarily the people who are strongest on the ground.

12:12.90

Ben

I think of that Kentucky Senate race from a few years ago where all the national Democratic donors decided that Amy McGrath was going to be the person who would unseat Mitch McConnell and pumped in tens of millions of dollars to her campaign.

12:27.47

Ben

Yet she barely emerged from a primary against a state rep who she outspent 50 to one because that she wasn't the kind of candidate that Democrats on the ground in Kentucky wanted to field.

12:39.80

Ben

And I think that the small dollar donors come in and they pervert this process. I think small dollar donors in your area, there's nothing more valuable that you can put together, but it's these donors from around the country that just sort of come in because they saw a tweet or they, they heard a name or they're recommended by a scam pack that took three quarters of their donation. And, and they're coming in supporting candidates that they don't know anything about.

13:06.69

Ben

I'm, i think frequently, these donors are supporting people in primaries. They don't even know there's a primary going on, right? They think that they're just seeing a tweet that goes out that says, this is our Democratic candidate, and and they're interfering in primaries that they don't know are are ongoing.

13:23.06

Ben

You know, in the in last cycle, and this is a seat we would never be able to carry, but we spent so much money, millions and millions of dollars against Marjorie Taylor Greene.

13:35.72

Ben

In one of the most Republican seats in the country because people want to donate against her. And look, in the general election, that's going to happen. But I will tell you, that started all the way in the primary. And there were three candidates who were running in that primary, two of which ran digital strategies to raise a lot of money, the third of which was actually an elected official that lived in the district.

13:56.98

Ben

Right. And they got completely overrun by the two candidates who did a bunch of digital spending, neither of whom were even lived in the district. They both moved in to to the district just to run and and and basically gripped off of these donors.

14:16.06

Ben

And you see these scam packs come in and they amplify these candidates. It's, it's, it's never supporting strong candidates. It's always supporting candidates that are, uh, want to partner with them and are going to give them the biggest cut of the donations.

14:32.18

Ben

And it's really become a cancer on the party because it deters stronger candidates from running. Now, in Virginia, we don't face this as badly because we have unlimited campaign contributions.

14:45.76

Ben

And the upside of a limited of unlimited contributions, and I know this is probably big money out VA is not going to like hearing this, right? But the upside of the unlimited contributions is if somebody is getting that kind of support, there's ways to catch up to them.

15:00.98

Ben

In a federal race for Congress, for example, where you have donation limits, if someone comes in and raises millions and millions of dollars from the grassroots from around the country, you never have a chance to even compete with them.

15:15.19

Ben

And so, you know, we saw this in the 7th District last year where, you know, Eugene Vindman, I think, won by 44 points in the early vote and by Election Day was winning by, i think, ballpark 10 points.

15:27.30

Ben

Once the other candidates had done a little bit of communication, it was a competitive race. But early on, the race wasn't competitive because none of the other candidates had the resources to talk to voters publicly.

15:40.33

Ben

early on. And so he he may not have been the candidate that people chose to nominate had national small dollar donors not been interfering in it to allow the voters in that district to figure out who they wanted to be their member of Congress.

15:54.00

Sam Shirazi

I think that's all really helpful for people who are trying to kind understand the mechanics of politics. And I could ask you about this stuff all day, but I know we have to move on to Virginia stuff. So I will ask you generally about Virginia. You know, what are the vibes? You mentioned 2017. Is this kind of 2017 type vibe? What are you thinking is going on this year? you know Obviously, more so at the governor's race, but if you want to talk about any of the other races going on.

16:20.27

Ben

Yeah, so far it feels bigger than 17. the The wave that we're likely to catch this year just feels like it's absolutely massive. I think the 2017 wave was primarily driven from surges in turnout. Yeah.

16:40.65

Ben

And turnout surges are worth one vote each. And so what I mean by that is when you start to persuade voters and you move someone from the other side to your side, it's worth two votes for you in a campaign if youre if that person's a regular voter because they go from being a plus one to a minus one or vice versa, in this case, a minus one to a plus one.

17:04.92

Ben

So it's a two vote swing. When you turn somebody out, who otherwise might not have voted, they're worth one vote to you because they go from a zero to a plus one instead of a minus one to a plus one, if that makes sense.

17:18.59

Ben

And so you get much bigger swings in the electorate when you see people moving away from a party or candidates than you do when it's just some groups are really excited about it.

17:32.53

Ben

And 17 was really the story of excitement You saw the Republicans were more excited than they had been in any cycle in Virginia governor history with Ed Gillespie.

17:46.15

Ben

And they still got completely blown out because the Democratic excitement was that much greater for Ralph Northam, who got, I think, around a half million more votes than Terry McAuliffe had gotten four years earlier.

17:57.60

Ben

That was a turnout surge. What I'm feeling happened this year is not just a turnout surge. I'm feeling a movement away from the Republican Party. There's so many people that voted for Trump that are realizing he was serious about everything he said, and some of some of whom are losing their jobs, some of whom are feeling other impacts of the Trump presidency in real ways to their families.

18:23.44

Ben

that are going to move them from being, you know again, minus one voters to plus one voters. And when you get those kind of movements in the electorate, seats that you never imagined can suddenly come into play very quickly.

18:35.96

Ben

Places that you thought might be competitive for pickups turn into landslides very quickly because the electorate moves so much faster with that. And I just everything I'm seeing on the ground, all the numbers I'm seeing is telling me that this is a year that you're going to see voters switching and surging.

18:55.11

Ben

And that would lead to a historic type of win for the Democrats, who have never, by the way, Sam, in the modern history, won a governor's race in Virginia by double digits.

19:06.24

Ben

But if I was setting a Las Vegas line, I would absolutely put the line and as a starting point in the double digits for this year.

19:14.91

Sam Shirazi

I think most people think the Democrats are favored, but it's certainly, you you make a compelling case that it it could not be that, it might end up being not that close.

19:24.80

Sam Shirazi

And I guess, you know, I'm trying to grapple with, you know, what exactly is going on and and how big of a surge there is. And and and how much vote switching there is, as you mentioned.

19:35.50

Sam Shirazi

And I think the thing that I'm trying to think through is what what is the Republican plan? Because it just seems like they're a little bit deer in the headlights, don't really have a lot of plans to counter what's going on.

19:48.02

Sam Shirazi

And so do you think there's a way the Republicans can kind of right the ship to maybe... You know, realistically, it might be hard for them to win, but maybe they'll kind of get get a competitive and maybe the House of Delegates, they don't lose that many seats.

20:01.57

Sam Shirazi

You know, you do you think that's possible or kind of the the train's already left the station?

20:05.99

Ben

Well, the train's leaving the station. i think what the Republicans are likely to to do when they get their numbers back this fall is to, when you're having both a surge against you in terms of turnout and voters are leaving you, the first problem you've to deal with is the voters leaving you.

20:23.95

Ben

I mean, I think you're already seeing the Republicans picking up on this. You saw that the purple caucus got formed from the House Republicans this week where they're calling themselves the the purple district or the purple Republicans. that I don't know.

20:38.25

Ben

I saw the list of them. i couldn't really differentiate from any of them, you know, like what made them purple other than they had a marginal district. I don't think all their voting records are all that purple is purple.

20:50.37

Ben

my point, but I think they're going to be looking at how do we hold some of these voters that are fleeing the Republican party? Because you're not going to be able to solve this just with a surge of going to the base and getting more base turnout.

21:07.70

Ben

And so, you know, that's probably going to be for them breaking with Trump is going to be the only pathway that they have to trying to hold some of those voters. And that, of course, is dangerous and double-edged and you know creates all sorts of perils for the campaign.

21:25.16

Ben

But I think they're going to have to look at that kind of strategy as a as a way to try to deal with the people leaving, because turnout just ain't going to cut it this year.

21:35.94

Ben

It's just not, it's, you can't, you can't turn, there aren't enough voters to turn out in a state that the Republicans already lost to go win it just by turning out the base.

21:46.06

Sam Shirazi

you might see some individual delegates maybe trying to distance themselves from Trump. Do you really think the Republicans, you know, statewide are going to do anything to try to distance themselves from Trump? Because it seems like the mentality is we're just going down with the ship. if And if if Trump takes us down, you know, it is what it is.

22:03.77

Sam Shirazi

I haven't seen any of them really try to distinguish themselves from Trump.

22:08.87

Ben

Yeah, I think you know each person has to kind of look at their own politics on this. you know For example, Jason Merez, who's the attorney general. I think that there's probably a spot in the administration for him if he's not successful.

22:24.23

Ben

So I doubt that he wants to to go blow up his relationships in order to, you know, potentially, let's say hypothetically lose by eight instead of lose by 15. Right.

22:35.81

Ben

So I think he's probably more go down with the ship. I think. somebody like a Pat Herity is probably more likely to see some breakage from Trump if he was to emerge as the Republican nominee for LG.

22:48.67

Ben

And Winston Sears obviously has in the past had some breakage with Trump. So she could always go back towards emphasizing that now that she's through her primary season. But again, like I said a few minutes ago, but you know if if we were sitting in a sports book right now and the the book put up a line of Spanberger minus eight and a half,

23:09.24

Ben

which is about the record of a Democrat in Virginia, I can't imagine that there wouldn't be a lot more votes for Spanberger minus eight and a half than Sears plus eight and a half right now.

23:19.31

Sam Shirazi

it's just kind of the reality the Republicans have to start to grapple with. I did want to ask you about, you know, after 2025, because you mentioned 2017, Democrats learned some lessons that they applied 2018.

23:32.14

Sam Shirazi

ah ah twenty eighteen Do you think after 2025, there are going to be lessons that Democrats can apply in 2026? Obviously, it's still early, but it sounds like, you know, you there might be a playbook that that's being successful in Virginia that could be applied next year in the midterms.

23:49.74

Ben

Yeah, this is the they look, this is the the test case. And I'm having already talking to candidates, you know, when they're running around the country that they want to know what's going on in Virginia. What are we seeing from our polling in Virginia? And they'll all be studying the results that come out of Virginia that give them some idea what they might see and in their areas.

24:10.15

Ben

and and And look, the same way that we look to other states, I think Hampton Roads, for example, which has been an area of Virginia that you know has bounced around and in recent years, that the Northern Virginia and Richmond suburbs have been consistently moving to Democrats, that Hampton Roads suburbs have been oh sometimes moving towards Democrats, but occasionally have bounced back towards Republicans in other cycles.

24:35.91

Ben

It's bounced around a little bit. It's not the straight line that you see in Northern Virginia and the Richmond suburbs. And so you know I look at the special election that happened in Florida last month, and in a Navy town in Pensacola, that county voted Democrat for Congress.

24:55.58

Ben

For the first time since they had voted for Bill Nelson, I think 20 some years ago in a race that he was barely contested in and in the in terms of a serious election, probably 40, 50 years so since they had voted for a Democratic candidate.

25:09.75

Ben

Well. What groups are overrepresented in Pensacola that are less represented in other districts? and And, of course, veterans would go right to the top of your list of you would suspect that is a movement against the Republican Party amongst people in the military or veterans, which wouldn't surprise me at all with some of the things going on with this administration. And so, you know, that would immediately make you in Virginia circle. Well, obviously, Virginia O2 goes right to the top of your list of, okay, if that's happening, that seed is very likely to flip back to us.

25:43.88

Ben

And Virginia 1, you start to look at and say, oh maybe Virginia 1 is in play. And I even start to to think, you know is this a cycle that's big enough that you know a few months from now, we're seeing a strong candidate emerge in Virginia 5?

26:01.44

Ben

That's going to be make it competitive because, you know, the the height of the Democratic wave is when Tom Perriello was successful in Virginia five. And the math does allow you there where you could win it.

26:13.53

Ben

But you would have to be at the very, very top of a wave.

26:16.53

Sam Shirazi

if you just look at 2018, there was a big blue wave and in Virginia. And I think, you know, the way things are going, that's a possibility in 2026. 2025.

26:25.16

Sam Shirazi

I did want to shift gears to one question about an issue that is kind of near and dear to your heart, and and it's a local Northern Virginia issue. It is the Fairfax Casino. So can you explain to everyone why a casino in Fairfax, like Tyson's Corner area, is a good idea and how people would vote for it in a referendum? Because I think there's certainly been a decent amount of opposition to it.

26:49.70

Ben

Yeah, I mean, Sam, I'm the head of a group called the Virginia Players Alliance, which I founded a few years ago that advocates for more gaming in Virginia that is friendly to the consumer.

27:04.16

Ben

And so what we're really focused on from the Players Alliance perspective is making sure that the as Virginia expands its gaming opportunities, that it's done in ways that are fair for the players.

27:15.28

Ben

And that the the payouts are fair for the players and that the the things that come with gambling are an asset to the community. And so we jumped all over the opportunity to help with the Fairfax project because there's so many possibilities that come with that. I think you know talking about a but Fairfax County finally getting for the first time its own sort of tourism industry based here when you have a convention center.

27:45.51

Ben

fairfax The Fairfax board has been asking for this for my entire adult lifetime. And no one's been willing to build this convention center because the economics of a standalone convention center just don't work in Fairfax County.

28:01.16

Ben

But one that was attached to a high-end casino and hotel, the economics would work for it. And we would finally be able to host major conferences in the county.

28:11.85

Ben

The revenue that comes from a casino, especially a high-end one in a place like Tyson's Corner, allows you hundreds of millions of dollars between the state and local government to spend on schools and other public needs.

28:26.56

Ben

And that doesn't even factor in the actual economic boost that the economy gets from the thousands of well-paid union jobs that go into a facility like this. And so, you know, to me, it's a no-brainer.

28:39.86

Ben

We have MGM across the river. Anyone who's been there knows that it's it's a safe place to go. It's what a high-end casino looks and feels like.

28:49.100

Ben

And it generates hundreds of millions of dollars. of for Maryland and for Prince George's County, a big chunk of which comes from Virginians. And so I think there's a lot of people in Northern Virginia that are looking at this saying, you know this isn't a gambling discussion because it's already here.

29:11.18

Ben

The General Assembly's already legalized us to do unlimited sports betting on our phones from home. And so you know when we're talking about gaming, how do we do it in a way that it's attracting people in from outside of the community that are leaving their money here and having a great time doing it instead of just being targeted to people in in our communities, right?

29:36.100

Ben

And I think, you know, the cat's out of the bag on on gaming in Virginia. I mean, I can go on my phone now, log on the Virginia Lottery website, and I don't know, Sam, if you ever go into these things, but you can now, there's slot machines on the Virginia Lottery website.

29:55.09

Ben

and you can go up to $50 a spin on these slot machines. And if you hit the the the little more spins button or the programming thing when you're logged in, first you load up the $50 spins, you can load up to 100 spins per push of the button that's preset. In other words, the button on the $50 machine will light up where you can bet $5,000 per push the button per push of the button on the Virginia Lottery website on the slot machines that they have to order 100 spins of $50 each right off the top.

30:31.64

Ben

The idea that we have that, but we can't have a high-end facility in a place like Tyson's Corner, that could attract in, uh, people that, uh, allows for a social aspect versus people doing this from their home, that's safer for people that brings in tourism.

30:50.25

Ben

to me, it's just asinine. So I think as all these facts kind of get to presented to voters, a lot of the opposition melts away, because it's, it's not really a discussion about, uh,

31:01.84

Ben

gaming, gaming's already here. It's a discussion about whether or not we want to keep some of this revenue in our community and whether we want to have it in in one facility. and And I'll tell you, Sam, from a player perspective, having a casino is a lot safer for players because they have programs to go find problem gamblers, to pull them off of the floor, to make sure that people aren't wagering when they're too drunk or too high or you know exhibiting other problem behaviors, none of those things are available when people are betting from home, when you can't see them and talk to them.

31:40.68

Ben

And so I think we want to encourage, you know from from my perspective, and you know I think this is something that Players Alliance is advocating for, we want gaming more gaming in person in these types of facilities versus things on our phones.

31:56.63

Sam Shirazi

Well, I think you certainly make a strong case for the casinos. I guess the the question I have, you know having looked at the Richmond casino referendum and the fact that you know Fairfax is wealthier community, and as you probably know better than I do, the electorate is going to be older and whiter and wealthier.

32:09.58

Ben

Thank

32:16.92

Sam Shirazi

you know How do you think a referendum would go? Do you you have a sense of Yeah, my sense is the the opposition is going to say this doesn't make sense in Fairfax County. you've You've laid out a good case about why it might make sense.

32:30.53

Sam Shirazi

But is that going to be able to carry the day, particularly when Richmond rejected the casino not too long ago?

32:37.85

Ben

Yeah. You know, Richmond rejected the casino the first time in a year where it was passing everywhere else in Virginia. It was on the ballot. So it seems like there were some unique factors that were going on there.

32:48.67

Ben

And that may have been related to the campaign that they ran. it could be related. I wouldn't necessarily say that there was a, that Richmond is a a canary in the coal mine about Fairfax County.

33:01.52

Ben

You know, Referendums are always touchy things in Northern Virginia. Fairfax County is known for voting no on it's voted no on bonds before, it's voted no on when the Board of Supervisors wanted to institute a meals tax two times, county residents rejected it. even Even in the year in 2016 when Hillary was on the ballot and Democrats were winning overwhelmingly in the county, the meals tax was failing 54 to 46.

33:30.38

Ben

My experience from having run campaigns in Fairfax is nothing is popular in Fairfax until you make a choice with it. And so I think with the casino, what you will see happen is the more that the casino is discussed in terms of you can have the revenue from the casino or you can pay higher real estate taxes.

33:54.58

Ben

You can have the revenue from the casino or we can pay our teachers less. You can have the revenue from a casino or you can have a meals tax or any of the other choices that the county has to make.

34:07.26

Ben

You see people flock to they want the casino. And so I think that the that campaign will be fundamentally about what the choices are that voters have and how how well the campaign is able to educate voters on what that choice is.

34:23.43

Ben

I know the second referendum in Richmond, there was a lot of controversy around. The mayor kind of strong-armed it a little bit to say, i think it was childcare issues. you know We won't have childcare in Richmond. We won't fund these unless unless you pass the casino. And people were, i think, put off by that.

34:42.71

Ben

I don't think this needs to be done in a threatening way. I think it's just done in a factual way. that voters can understand. Like, look, you can either have the hundreds of millions of dollars of revenue from this that the county board can put to your priorities, or you're going to pay it in a different way.

35:00.47

Ben

And we also have to remember that what the electorate looks like in Fairfax County this November, next November, any future November in the Trump era is rapidly changing.

35:13.79

Ben

the county budget is under tremendous pressure right now. All the Northern Virginia counties are facing this enormous budgetary pressure that's being created from the layoffs, from the real estate market, from the commercial real estate market and the residential.

35:32.67

Ben

And they're used to... Gold-plated services. They're used to having, you know, decent-sized class size in schools. They're used to having enough money being paid to teachers that you can recruit and retain quality teachers.

35:48.41

Ben

And I don't think Northern Virginia counties are ever going to get to a place where they're not going to prioritize that first. And if the choice on that is creating a tourism industry that has a casino and a location in Tyson's Corner, or again, raising class size or cutting teacher pay or doing any other number of things that would you know create hundreds of millions of dollars of savings in the county budget, I think that, again, voters are going to flock towards give us the casino.

36:19.92

Sam Shirazi

Well, we'll see what happens next year at the General Assembly. I'm sure it'll be a hot topic next year as well. All right, Ben. Well, thanks so much for taking the time to talk to me. I did want to just leave with one question about your X account, because i know that it is one of my go-to sources on election night. You're always the first to make the calls, and I think you're always 100% right. So I'm always impressed with that. And i've I've tried to emulate it, but I don't think I'm as ever as good as you and as quick as you. So kudos to your X account.

36:49.26

Sam Shirazi

I did want to say... you know You certainly have a little bit of a different style than me. i I tend to be pretty tame on my ex account. Sometimes you have some spicy takes on there and you also, i would say, air are some personal beef you have with various people.

37:05.72

Sam Shirazi

you know Why do you feel the need to do that? And is that kind of what you think people want to see? Or is it more just kind of, you know you feel like that's where you want to express yourself?

37:17.25

Ben

I just, I've always felt like, you know, I'm in politics to be real about it. And I'm going to tell people what I actually think. In terms of a lot of people will give me the feedback of like, well, you're a consultant. How can you, how can you say these things? Because you might lose a client over it.

37:35.97

Ben

Oftentimes i think it actually helps us pick up clients because we have, we're in primaries and primaries are, heavily competitive, and a lot of times Democrats are afraid to say in primaries what the distinction is between the candidates.

37:50.78

Ben

And I'm not afraid to tell people what the the choices are and why we chose to support a particular candidate because I think they're a better choice. And you know I know that there's a lot of people out there that can sometimes be a little uncomfortable with that, but especially in an area like Northern Virginia,

38:10.47

Ben

where the primaries are the election, we either lay out those choices for people or we continue to win elections and not get anything done. And voters deserve to know, you know, last year, for example, and i guess it's now a year and a half ago, you know, we took on Stella Pekarski's race against George Barker in the primary. And a lot of people said, you can't do that. You know, you won't be able to work for a number of different candidates around the state because you're taking on the the chairman of Senate Finance in a Democratic primary.

38:40.90

Ben

but we really felt that you know Stella was a better representative for that district and put our necks out to tell people about George Barker's voting record and why he should go. And, you know, the same thing, we got involved in the the famous Lucas versus Spruill primary.

38:57.69

Ben

Most of the consultants around the state went into hiding for that primary. yeah

39:02.87

Sam Shirazi

Yeah.

39:03.06

Ben

oh my we we were I was really proud to, you know, I've been working with Senator Lucas for 25 years to tell people why I thought she was the the person we needed at that time.

39:03.12

Sam Shirazi

and

39:11.79

Ben

And I think, you know, you look at what happened with the arena the year after that election and you know i I look back on that and say, boy, did she prove us right? And so you know I'm just not afraid to get in there and mix it up. And and I know that's not everyone's style, but what I have found is a lot of times when people first get involved, they're too nervous to do that stuff. And by the time they've been hanging around the block for 10 years or so,

39:38.43

Ben

they're pretty much all telling me like, yeah, go for it. Like it's time to go send a message. So I get most of my negative feedback on that that stuff from people that are just saying like, well, why can't we just elect Democrats? Well, we don't need to just elect Democrats. We need to elect better Democrats and we have to hold our are Democrats accountable.

39:57.90

Ben

You know, I would, Sam, if you don't mind like me filibustering for a second to say like, you know, the situation we have in Fairfax right now, where you have the school board budget chair being sued for embezzling money from a company.

40:13.98

Ben

This is asinine. The idea that like the school board, which is entirely controlled by Democrats, isn't able to even act.

40:23.83

Ben

theyre not They don't need to remove him from the school board. That's up to him whether he wants to resign or not. But that they're going to keep him in a leadership position overseeing the budget while there's like serious allegations of embezzlement.

40:37.61

Ben

this This is crazy town stuff that just leads to the the the party looking bad. It hurts our statewide candidates. It's the kind of story that easily shows up on Fox News to label the Democrats nationally.

40:51.57

Ben

It's just bad news for us. and And I think the only way you see that stuff change is when you hold them accountable. And I'll tell you last year, you know using that school board as an example, It wasn't until a number of us got involved criticizing them for not having gotten involved with the the the football team that was not following all the rules in Fairfax County that the that the that situation was resolved itself.

41:21.82

Ben

And prior to people sort of raising their voices on it, The school board was going to allow this team to go beat everyone 98 to nothing. That was essentially an all-star team.

41:32.62

Ben

And a bunch of kids were sort of ending their high school athletic career disappointed that they weren't allowed a fair chance to compete. And the school board was not going to do anything until we until we all started speaking about it and then they decided to. So I think oftentimes holding the Democrats accountable, you see it works.

41:54.25

Ben

They're afraid of their next election. And and they don't they want people to think they're doing a good job. And so, you know, again, like this is a new situation now of, you know, the school board members that speak up and say, look, we can't have someone accused of embezzlement that's chairing our budget committee.

42:12.95

Ben

I think they're going to do a lot better in the next election than the ones that say there's nothing we can do and cover up their eyes and pretend ears and pretend like they don't see it happening.

42:22.56

Sam Shirazi

Well, no one can ever accuse you of not speaking your mind. So I know everyone appreciates your hot takes on X, or at least they they take a look, even if they don't always agree with them. But but I do appreciate you always you know giving your opinions on things and being willing to come on here and and share some thoughts. And I think part of the reason I wanted you on was so that people got to know you a little bit. You're not just some random guy on X, you're you're a real human and you actually have, you know, a lot of insights into what's going on in Virginia this year. So Ben, thanks. Thanks again for coming on.

42:52.87

Ben

Yeah, thank you, and congratulations on getting this thing started.

42:56.10

Sam Shirazi

Thanks so much. And see here everyone next week on Federal Fallout.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit samshirazi.substack.com

00:00.77

Sam Shirazi

Hi, everyone. I'm Sam Shirazi, and this is Federal Fallout the 2025 Virginia Elections. This will be the first and hopefully many interview episodes, and I'm really excited to have as my first guest Chaz Nuttycombe.

00:14.31

Sam Shirazi

Chaz, thanks for coming on.

00:16.41

Chaz Nuttycombe

Hey, Sam, thanks for having me on. I've really enjoyed some of the episodes you've you've put out thus far and have have enjoyed your feed. And you've come on my podcast back when I was doing the CNALS podcast. And I think you came on in 2023 when we talked about the Virginia state legislative primaries. And I'm excited to talk about you know the where the primaries are right now.

00:42.51

Sam Shirazi

Yeah. And, you know, I've always been impressed with your work, Chaz, especially with state legislative races. It's a really granular thing. And I think you're doing a really good job with that. i I first noticed it in 2021 when I saw your maps and your rankings. And I thought it was really cool because I'd seen that at the congressional level, but I'd never really seen it at the state legislative level.

01:02.25

Sam Shirazi

And then your claim to fame was in 2023 when you got all 100 races in the Virginia House of Delegates and the state Senate correct. And so that was you know really impressive given you know some of those races came down to the wire.

01:17.44

Sam Shirazi

So anyways, thanks. Thanks for coming on.

01:20.22

Chaz Nuttycombe

Yeah, yeah, absolutely. You know, Jack and I, Jack Kirsting is the is the co-forecaster at, you know, was that at C-Analysis and C-Analysis is now State Navigate, the 501c3 nonprofit. so I've, you know, been been working on for a while and, you know, Jack came on 2021. That was so the first year that we were working together and, you know, we, uh, we had a good year and in, in 2023 and, had a a pretty decent year, all things especially considered, in our state legislative forecast 2024 and, in given, you know, the small polling misses

02:01.44

Chaz Nuttycombe

really excited for for virginia twenty twenty five you know there's There's a lot at stake with you know all 100 House of Delegates seats up and you know the Attorney General, Lieutenant Governor, and obviously guillatorial race.

02:21.34

Sam Shirazi

All right, Chaz. So tell me a little bit more about State Navigate. you know What's it all about and how can people help if they want to?

02:28.87

Chaz Nuttycombe

Yeah, so State Navigate is the successor to Sea Analysis, which was you know the site that i started up back in 2020 when I was in college. But now I'm a graduated man, and you know we still got a lot of familiar faces that were at Sea Analysis over at State Navigate, including my co-forecaster, Jack Kirsting.

02:52.24

Chaz Nuttycombe

And so, you know, we are a 501c3 nonprofit. And the thing that I'm really excited for is i think by sometime in May is what my goal is, is that we will have State Navigate Virginia out.

03:08.46

Chaz Nuttycombe

And by the end of this month, we will have finished out State Navigate South Carolina. For those interested, they can go to State Navigate and look at the What we have for South Carolina, that includes our state aggregate future, which has news aggregation and our district summary pages, which has candidate data, election data going down to precinct level, district demographic data, education, income, race, education by, you know, white college, non-college, that sort of thing.

03:42.42

Chaz Nuttycombe

And you know the next step with with South Carolina is building out the legislature features, which is going to have bill tracking and the ideology calculation using W nominate, which also includes the individual member probabilities of voting yay or nay on each roll call. Got to toy around with it quite a bit in my undergrad, and it's it's something I very much nerd over.

04:07.78

Chaz Nuttycombe

And, we're also working on deep campaign finance data, for, uh, for South Carolina this month as well. So once we've pretty much finished out, our front end and back end stuff for South Carolina, you know, hopefully not long after that, you know, a few weeks after we'll, uh,

04:26.18

Chaz Nuttycombe

we'll get up and running in Virginia. And, uh, you know, obviously, I think we're, we're known in Virginia for, you know, as he noted, the, uh, the forecast that we, we have because of our record.

04:38.100

Chaz Nuttycombe

and, uh, We are going to be launching our forecast for Virginia 2025 with the House of Delegates and Governor and Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General at our June 29th fundraiser in Montpelier, Virginia. That's just about 30 minutes north of Richmond City.

04:59.46

Chaz Nuttycombe

And that will be publicly selling tickets, I believe, on April 18th. I'm already contacting some, like, you know, members of the legislature and and politicos and consultants and and whatnot over the next, you know, 12 days and giving them the opportunity to get a ticket because it's kind of a small venue.

05:25.35

Sam Shirazi

Nice. Yeah, I had a chance to look at the South Carolina and look really cool. And I'm definitely looking forward to Virginia and especially with the elections this year. So anyways, congrats on getting State Navigate up and running. Now let's turn over to Virginia and this year and just the latest news since my last podcast was that Amanda Chase would not make be making the GOP primary ballot.

05:49.58

Sam Shirazi

And so Winsome Sears is the Republican nominee, Abigail Spanberger is the Democratic nominee. Chaz, what do you see in terms of Spanberger versus Sears contest in Virginia this year?

06:01.21

Chaz Nuttycombe

Yeah. Look, um, Look, um, when we're, when we're talking about the general and we're talking about the gov race, you know, i think, uh, the obvious, thing to keep in mind, that I'm sure pretty much everyone listening to this podcast already knows is that ever since Virginia has been a a two party, uh, state and, you know, black voters have, have truly had the right to vote, in Virginia,

06:28.25

Chaz Nuttycombe

you know We have elected the party opposite of the White House. This is a tradition that's gone on for, what, 50 years now or just over 50, right?

06:40.95

Chaz Nuttycombe

And so I think that's something that you know we should keep in mind. Look, I will say that I've already, pretty much the night of the Wisconsin Supreme Court election,

06:53.52

Chaz Nuttycombe

that was the final test and straw for me to be comfortable in saying that the Virginia governor race is not going to be competitive this year. uh, we can maybe quibble about margin, which margin is important because, Spanberger winning by as much as Harris won by, or maybe even a little bit less on a good night for the, uh, GOP versus Spanberger winning by double digits very much makes a difference. And,

07:22.19

Chaz Nuttycombe

what the house looks like and and whether, you know, Mieres wins and whether Republicans can retain the lieutenant governor office.

07:32.84

Chaz Nuttycombe

But unless somebody has, you know, just just kind of thinking of Ralph Northam here, I guess, like pictures of Spanberger in blackface or you know some some oppo of something spanberger did on like something she did the cia or something you know there has to be like some big scandal or oppo dump in you know like early september for abigail spanberger to not be the next governor of virginia

08:03.15

Chaz Nuttycombe

Point blank period. The only question is, is she winning narrowly? Is she winning by double digits? Is she, you know, doing better than Belial's? Is she doing better than Kane 2018?

08:19.02

Chaz Nuttycombe

Is she running ahead or behind of Harris? You know, stuff like that. that That's kind of all that really is quibble about the the Virginia governor race at this point.

08:30.79

Sam Shirazi

Well, yeah, I mean, you you certainly make a case there that Spanberger has a good shot this year. i mean, do you think it's some of these issues that are happening, such as with Doge and with the tariffs?

08:42.05

Sam Shirazi

Is that what's giving Democrats such an advantage right now? Or do you think it's just the nature of Virginia, the party out of the White House who usually does pretty well or a combination of those two things?

08:52.45

Chaz Nuttycombe

I think that, you know, you raise some issues that I think are important. I think that Doge is is definitely toxic in Virginia.

09:01.54

Chaz Nuttycombe

You know, we can I think I think Signal and I love Signal. I really do. The people at Signal are are very, very smart and probably my favorite Republican pollster.

09:12.58

Chaz Nuttycombe

But, you know, I think they put out a poll that said, you know, Virginia voters approve of Doge, but they didn't say Doge. They said, you know, like describing what Doge, you know, wants to accomplish. Right.

09:26.52

Chaz Nuttycombe

Whereas if you say Doge in in any polling in Virginia, you're probably going to see it down. Right. at least double digits. But, you know, when we talk about not, not only just for the fact that, yeah, yeah Trump is in the white house, but let's also keep in mind what I think was the big lesson in 2024 for election forecasters and election analysts.

09:50.05

Chaz Nuttycombe

When we talk about turnout and non-presidential years, I mean, let's look back at the 2017 gubernatorial map, Edgar Lesby and Republicans of Virginia,

10:00.83

Chaz Nuttycombe

held up pretty decently well with high prop voters. You know, Gillespie was winning Stafford. Gillespie barely lost Chesterfield. Gillespie even won James City County, right?

10:12.46

Chaz Nuttycombe

And I mean, this is the big thing in this this chain that the change between the party's bases, right? You know,

10:23.56

Chaz Nuttycombe

Yes, Democrats are becoming the party of of the wealthy, elite, and the educated, those those with a college degree educated, and Republicans are becoming more of the party of the...

10:38.75

Chaz Nuttycombe

Those who aren't tuning in to news every day and are just working man, working Joe, not just for white voters, but also increasingly non-white voters. saw that in 2024. So that's a thing. Trump doesn't have to

10:55.72

Chaz Nuttycombe

but trump doesn't have to be at the you know the lowest point of approval in his presidency, which is right after Charlottesville, right? October 2017 was the lowest point for job approval in Trump's presidency.

11:10.56

Chaz Nuttycombe

Um, Um, and he doesn't have to be at that point. He just has to be, you know, a couple points down in job approval. And, you know, Spanberger can, could win by double digits because of the shifting, changes between the parties, uh, voting bases.

11:28.65

Chaz Nuttycombe

Um, Um, now you don't have to go back to 2017 necessarily, to look at, you know, Republicans in Virginia doing well with high prop voters. You can look at, you can look at 2023.

11:42.61

Chaz Nuttycombe

but you know, to your point, yeah, you know, Trump is, is in the white house now. And, uh, when we talk about turnout deferentials, I think that there's going to be,

11:52.92

Chaz Nuttycombe

you know, an electorate that's going to be a democratic leaning, that probably voted for Harris. but you know, that being said 2021, that electorate voted for Biden by three points. It was just for the matter of fact that Republicans could win on persuasion.

12:08.92

Chaz Nuttycombe

Um, Um, so I mean, look, if, if Republicans can do what Trump did, in 2024 with peeling off, working class, low, low to mid prop, nonwhite voters that traditionally vote democratics, especially Latinos, especially, well, I think the main, the really interesting demographic thing,

12:32.48

Chaz Nuttycombe

That kind of is they're not really low prop and and don't lack a college degree. But, you know, I think the Indian American community is a big, big thing to where Republicans could, yeah, maybe make gains with that demographic.

12:47.45

Chaz Nuttycombe

And they are, you know, like high prop. So, you know, making gains with with non-white voters pretty much, especially on the issues of like transgender politics and immigration to.

13:03.57

Chaz Nuttycombe

you know, earn over the, the conservative parts of those demographics and, you know, being able to have that, those gains and then doing what they can on persuasion is pretty much their, their only hope in getting the areas over the line and retaining the LG office and, you know, maybe flipping the house delegates.

13:22.82

Chaz Nuttycombe

that's pretty much their best night possible. right now. I, I just don't see, any universe unless again, Spanberger has some sort of big oppo dump that comes in September, or October, that changes the outcome of the Virginia governor race.

13:39.57

Chaz Nuttycombe

Um, Um, and I think also, for the matter of fact that, that Winston Sears has a laughable campaign, i would say, you know, I,

13:51.82

Chaz Nuttycombe

the The fact that they fired Pool House, which you know was the architect for branding of the Unkin campaign, is, is insane.

14:01.90

Chaz Nuttycombe

And, you know, i mean, Sears is just, she's got two left feet and, uh, and is trying to, trying to dance. and, and it's, it's, uh, it's, it's a sight to behold. And I think that's something that's really hurting her. And the question is, you know, is there enough ticket splitting to where, you know, Republicans can retain those statewide offices? And, is there, you know, enough, enough room to gain with minority voters to where they could flip the house delegates. I think those are the only things that they are really shooting for, i would say, and, and are hoping for.

14:41.84

Chaz Nuttycombe

So.

14:42.86

Sam Shirazi

Yeah. I mean, I think i think the governor's race is is looking pretty dicey for the Republicans. And and I often think that you know, if if the Democrats win the governor's race by a decent margin, you know, the rest of the ticket is just going to get swept in. And so having said that, for LG and AG, I mean, I think the primaries are really important. They don't get that much attention, but given the way things are looking, think there's a decent chance that whoever wins the Democratic nomination for lieutenant governor and attorney general will win those races in November. And so having said that, I mean, what are your thoughts on the LG and AG primaries, you

15:16.16

Sam Shirazi

You know, both both on on both sides for the lieutenantant governor, but I would say more on the Democratic side, given that it's more interesting race with all those people and then also attorney general race on the Democratic side.

15:27.79

Chaz Nuttycombe

i would I would be shocked if if John Reed were to be able to beat Pat Herity in the Republican nomination for LG.

15:39.75

Chaz Nuttycombe

I would be kind of shocked. Right. I mean, this is... I mean, look, now that being said, as I live in Hanover County, right? Right.

15:50.08

Chaz Nuttycombe

And i know then I know the power of news radio 1140 WRVA. I really do. I, you know, i've I've heard plenty plenty of their their stuff, like growing up in and whatnot. And, you know, I don't remember, you know, Reid. I don't know how long he's been there.

16:12.82

Chaz Nuttycombe

Um, Um, but I mean, if this was someone like Jeff Katz, then I think that would be a little bit different, but you know, I don't know how, how many people were like listening to his radio show and whatnot, but you know, like even then, i mean, the fact of the matter is that, you know, heritage is probably gonna out raise and,

16:30.59

Chaz Nuttycombe

you know, he's, uh, he's going to make a good pitch to, to Nova voters. And i mean, you know, uh, reads, reads base and re reads reach only goes into the, Richmond metropolitan area. And, uh, I think that, you know, I mean, if he could win Hampton roads, then, then yeah.

16:51.69

Chaz Nuttycombe

Um, Um, but I, uh, I would, I would be shocked if Herity is not the LG nominee. Going into the LG Dem primary, i mean, look, again, for for any of these these takes, it's mainly on intuition. Like, there' there's no forecast. You can't forecast any primary. There's a very volatile electorates and very unpredictable.

17:16.06

Chaz Nuttycombe

Polling is, like, good for, like, a baseline, but in terms of, like, how accurate polling is in primaries versus generals, right? so it's, it's mainly like intuition.

17:27.69

Chaz Nuttycombe

Um, Um, and you know, I, I'm not like really having my finger this close on the pulse, but. you know I mean, I think that the LG Dem primary is is competitive.

17:40.16

Chaz Nuttycombe

If I were to guess, I would say Rouse has a little bit of an advantage. you know he'll He'll do well in Hampton Roads, and then I think he's probably going to do well with rural black voters and rural white voters as well with his ads for his time Virginia Tech.

17:55.09

Chaz Nuttycombe

Yeah. you know know virginia ah his his time at virginia tech and, uh, you know, I think that the question is, where, where does s Stoney play in all this?

18:10.58

Chaz Nuttycombe

Um, Um, I think Stoney is a dead man, by the end of this, cause there's, there's no way he's going to go into, into, you know, uh, the third week of June unscathed.

18:23.25

Chaz Nuttycombe

with the water crisis, with Navy Yard, with, uh, the, casino, attempts and especially the second one.

18:33.92

Chaz Nuttycombe

You know, like the the, I think the question is with Stoney is like, is he going to carry Richmond city? I think he could, you know, he has support from black voters in the city.

18:46.92

Chaz Nuttycombe

Um, Um, and, uh, but you know, i mean, just white voters in Richmond hate them, uh, in the city proper. And I would assume that he, he probably wouldn't do well with,

18:59.83

Chaz Nuttycombe

you know, voters that aren't black in Henrico and in Chesterfield. So, you know, I mean, I think that gives Hashmi an advantage with, you know, doing well in those counties, I would guess.

19:17.97

Chaz Nuttycombe

And, you know, there's, there's Babur Lateef, which, you know, like Nova is the big question mark, I think in this, right. And I think there is a lot of attention on Nova and on Doge and and whatnot.

19:33.91

Chaz Nuttycombe

And, you know, I mean, Is is his that being his home base going to going to help him out? I have no idea. I think Nova is the big question mark and is it is really going to decide this primary, most likely.

19:50.94

Chaz Nuttycombe

Shock to nobody. and Nova is going to decide a Democratic primary. right. But, you know, I mean, in terms of like, who's doing well in Nova, I don't think anybody really has a good, like, and I don't think anybody is confident enough to say, oh yeah, we're, we're up in Nova.

20:09.07

Chaz Nuttycombe

Right. Like, I don't think any campaign has that level of confidence. with the, with the AG Dem primary, I think it's probably going to be Jones.

20:19.37

Chaz Nuttycombe

I wouldn't rule out Taylor. you know, i think that being a woman in a democratic primary is a big boost and right. You can say that applies the same for cause Allah Hashmi, and keeps her competitive as well.

20:34.39

Chaz Nuttycombe

and in addition to her base and, you know, her time in the state Senate, uh, but, you know, I think that, you know, Jay Jones has,

20:45.23

Chaz Nuttycombe

put together a campaign that's been running a lot longer and he has a lot more name recognition from his 2021 run. So, but also again, there's that, there's that question of Nova, like, you know, he'll, Jay will probably do well in, you know, obviously Hampton roads and with black voters, rural and urban, you know, but like,

21:11.94

Chaz Nuttycombe

how How is he going to play in Nova? Is that something maybe Shannon Taylor can, you know, bite into or or outright win or something? Right. So, yeah, I mean, that's that's where I think things are. But it's it's early April.

21:28.64

Chaz Nuttycombe

Right. We got two and a half months for the primary. This could age very well or of age age very poorly. So.

21:37.71

Sam Shirazi

Yeah, I mean, I agree with you. Northern Virginia is like the big wild card in both those races. And it's it's always hard to know because it costs a lot of money to run ads. And I don't know if that's to happen in these races.

21:49.07

Sam Shirazi

So we'll we'll see. I agree. it's It's a little bit early to to give it exact prediction, maybe closer to the primary. we We'll have a better sense.

21:56.78

Chaz Nuttycombe

Well, I think also when we talk about ads, I mean, on on the note of, you know, Stoney or maybe even the AG primary, are C4 is going to get involved in this, you know, with like doing the dirty work and attacking a candidate.

22:16.20

Chaz Nuttycombe

Right. And I could think of a few that, you know, would want to get involved in especially like going against Stoney.

22:26.37

Chaz Nuttycombe

Maybe there's one that wants to go against Taylor. I don't know. But, you know, I think that's going to be something that I think people are are watching for right now as well.

22:36.07

Sam Shirazi

Yeah, I think it's a good point. So we'll we'll just have to kind of wait and see what happens with all that. I did want to just shift gears a little bit. Don't want to ask about specific districts except one, which I might ask you after you answer this question. But I wanted to get your sense of the House of Delegates more so for the general election.

22:53.88

Sam Shirazi

Because I'm kind of struggling to, you know, i'm my guess is Democrats have a shot to pick up seats. Is it going to be, you know, like a little wave where they pick up a few of the pretty obvious seats? Or is there the possibility of like a big 2017 wave where they pick up a bunch of seats?

23:12.06

Sam Shirazi

And obviously it's very early and we can't really know the real answer to that until we get closer to the election. But what's your sense in terms of the House of Delegates and is it going to be... a little wave or a big wave, or is it too early to tell?

23:24.64

Chaz Nuttycombe

I think it's a little early. Look, again, Jack Kirsting and I are starting on the forecast this week and and we're going to unveil it on on June 29th. It starts at 3 out here in in Montpelier for a fundraiser.

23:39.08

Chaz Nuttycombe

And then we'll publicly release it, you know, month to a month half after that. Look, I think that there's, again, like just going back to what I was saying with what I think Republicans are are hoping for for a good night into where they could flip the House of Delegates.

23:57.08

Chaz Nuttycombe

I think their ceiling is 51 seats for the Republicans, right? I think that you know there is like maybe two other seats that could have put them in I don't think they were necessarily like really trying for 53 in 2021 or sorry, not 2021, 2023.

24:15.20

Chaz Nuttycombe

Um, Um, and I certainly don't think they are this time. not even 52, I think like, you know, the best case scenario for them is 51. Right. So R plus two.

24:26.56

Chaz Nuttycombe

but look, you know, again, with, with the fact that there's a Republican in the white house, And, um, And, um, I mean, a good, and some good news for Republicans recently for, for house Republicans is the fact that Elon Musk is on his way out.

24:43.80

Chaz Nuttycombe

Um, Um, but you know, is, is our Democrats going to still be able to run against him in the general? I don't know. or, you know, like, do they want to, or are they scared of his money?

24:54.67

Chaz Nuttycombe

which i would I would say, I think, is his money's a net negative, as you know you can see by the difference between the state superintendent race and the state Supreme Court race in Wisconsin.

25:06.81

Chaz Nuttycombe

But look, I think that the the ceiling for the Democrats could be 20 seats. The fact that we might enter and look,

25:16.24

Chaz Nuttycombe

I'm a numbers guy, but I'm a specific numbers guy. I'm not going to get out of my depth. I'm not an Nate Silver, right? um um don't know anything about economics, truly. I literally don't.

25:29.49

Chaz Nuttycombe

I'm not predicting a recession, right? Now, I think that for those conservatives who you know want to laugh at J.P. Morgan's face, I think they they can since you know J.P. Morgan was predicting a recession in 2023. think it was, right? And then they were saying like, okay, yeah, maybe a little bit inflation and in 2021 or 2022.

25:53.05

Chaz Nuttycombe

I think that's a good counterpoint. But, you know, we kind of have to wait and see on the recession if there is one coming or, you know, if there isn't. Because right now the markets, you know, last week were we're in free fall.

26:05.72

Chaz Nuttycombe

So look, if there's a recession, yeah, this this could be, like a 2009 situation. Now, that being said, right, I've been saying like, okay, you usually have this like intersectional moment to where the incumbent party in the White House has a big, you know, I done goofed moment with Trump, with Charlottesville 2017, with, you know, Afghanistan with Biden in 2021.

26:35.66

Chaz Nuttycombe

Um, Um, or, you know, you you don't even have to necessarily say the incumbent party. right. I think that I would kind of quibble with and say, think that there might be a chance that, uh, Ken Cuccinelli would have, would have become governor it wasn't for the 2013 shutdown.

26:52.05

Chaz Nuttycombe

Um, Um, I know that can be a hot take and I think it's plenty, you know, can be up for debate. And, you know, so I I think that the fact that this moment is happening right now is is a double edged sword for the Virginia Republicans.

27:07.98

Chaz Nuttycombe

Right. It can either be a oh, it's only going to get worse from here. Right. Or B, okay, our worst moment is now. And, you know, it could, it can get better by the time of the election.

27:22.88

Chaz Nuttycombe

So yeah, there is a little bit of wait and see, and that's why, you know, there's a 22 seat range. And, again, no hard forecast, just like in terms of where I think things are, it could be anywhere from R plus two in the house to, you know, Democrats getting to 71

27:39.72

Chaz Nuttycombe

And that is if there's a recession and, you know, again, with the fact that there is a a much different voting base and, you know, if we will see if Sears keeps stepping on her toes or whether she, you know, does some public speaking coaches or classes or whatever, because I think she has a public speaking issue.

28:03.29

Chaz Nuttycombe

um um but yeah, so I think there's a little bit of a wide range right now but you know so I I don't think there's any world in which there's something like r plus three or d plus 21 I feel i feel safe ruling that out but that's it's such a big range right to where it's like okay yeah no duh

28:24.66

Sam Shirazi

Yeah. No, I mean, it's just too early to tell. i did want to ask you about one specific district, House District 41, that is in the Blacksburg area in Southwest Virginia. i consider you a little bit of an expert in that district because you went to Virginia Tech and obviously have covered past races.

28:42.82

Sam Shirazi

And usually that that house seat is competitive. What do you think this year in terms of that district and if Lily Franklin has a chance to win it this time after she just came up really short 2023.

28:55.44

Chaz Nuttycombe

Yeah, so the college town districts, I think, are like definitely the races that I'm most interested this year. even So I'm actually going to be most likely moving into Mark Early's district in September or October just...

29:11.36

Chaz Nuttycombe

Um, Um, cause I'm, I'm looking for a new apartment and I want to stay in Richmond. So why not do it where there's good real estate for voting for the next three or four years. But the college town districts are very interesting. Right. And I think it just has to do with my, my fascination with, how the zoomer vote went in 2024.

29:31.60

Chaz Nuttycombe

Right. Um, Right. Um, I'm an older zoomer. right. An 18 year old would be calling me young. I'm 25 now. so, you know, for those, you know, maybe listen that podcast who remember me in like 2017 when, and when I was 18, right.

29:48.38

Chaz Nuttycombe

I'm, I'm, I'm old now, according to, to college students. and, uh, and, you know, they got a lot more conservative and I think, you know, there's been a lot of good writing and research on it.

29:59.92

Chaz Nuttycombe

with the fact that, you know, i think Biden is is very responsible and COVID is also responsible. But I think a big thing is that just...

30:12.27

Chaz Nuttycombe

in terms of like college students also being kind of naturally low prop. I would say that the Republican college voters are especially low prop.

30:23.07

Chaz Nuttycombe

I mean, i posted this the other day, Liberty University had like 13% of the precinct, Liberty University precinct proper had like 13% its 2024 turnout. think that might be,

30:35.36

Chaz Nuttycombe

and i think that might be like for any contested race, at least like the lowest, turnout of 2024 vote share in that precinct, in the Commonwealth.

30:48.15

Chaz Nuttycombe

And, um, um, you know, the question is, can, can Republicans get these kids out to vote? right. They've made a lot of gains here, but can they get them out to vote?

30:59.45

Chaz Nuttycombe

this is going to be their first rodeo, pretty much an investing in same day registration. right. They didn't really do that in 2023. Uh, and that almost, and because of that investment in same day registration, that almost resulted in Amanda Batten and Chris Obenshain losing.

31:17.73

Chaz Nuttycombe

Right. So i'm I'm really interested in it. And and yeah, I'm interested in the 41st. You know, i I especially just a story I love is, you know, back in 2023, it's like literally Election Day. And for Jane Tech, wanted to do like a little video on like, you know, a day and a day of Election Day following, you know, the elections font, whatever, you know, they have in the in the thing.

31:46.22

Chaz Nuttycombe

Um, Um, cause I saw the Cardinal news article, which, you know, I, I do love that article. but i I went to campus to write for J tech has three voting, uh, precincts on campus now.

31:59.46

Chaz Nuttycombe

And they're bringing out the beer bong tables. They're bringing out the foldable tables. And, and I felt good about my predictions that year.

32:05.70

Sam Shirazi

That's

32:08.68

Chaz Nuttycombe

Um, Um, I did, i thought like, okay, I feel like I feel good about like 98 in the house, uh, and then like a 38 out of 40 in the Senate. And then like when I'm seeing that and I predicted that Ovenshane was, you know, going to win, i thought it was going to be closer than people thought.

32:26.56

Chaz Nuttycombe

Certainly wasn't, it was closer than I thought, but still I'm on my drive home and I'm thinking like, if I get every single district right, but the one i live in for the past couple of years, I'm going to hate myself.

32:38.71

Sam Shirazi

you

32:41.76

Chaz Nuttycombe

I'm going to be so pissed. Right. If that is the one district I miss. And you know, it, it, it didn't happen. But look,

32:51.43

Chaz Nuttycombe

yeah i i posted the other day blacksburg now makes up a higher share of uh of the district's uh registered voters in uh in 2025 uh at least currently march 2025 versus march 2023 blacksburg makes up a higher vote share right it compared to like the rest of Montgomery County and, uh, wrote the part of Roanoke County, which, you know, open Shane, um, you know, that's something that's working against them.

33:27.37

Chaz Nuttycombe

Uh, I also think that Democrats got caught. I would, I would say, let me be specific house Democrats got costs caught sleeping in that district. Right. and I think that they,

33:38.23

Chaz Nuttycombe

also did not cut great mail. I saw a mail that they, like mail they did for Lily Franklin and it said like, Lily Franklin for for Southwest Virginia, right? Like cookie cutter crap.

33:52.10

Chaz Nuttycombe

Oh, it's a Southwest Virginia district and and whatnot. right. So they, they just pretty much phoned it in. and, uh, so, you know, uh, look, that's, that's gonna be a competitive race. I think everybody knows that, right. It was decided by 0.8%.

34:09.21

Chaz Nuttycombe

Um, Um, in 2023 it's competitive race and, uh, yeah, it got more Republican from the 2020 presidential to 2024 results. but.

34:19.79

Chaz Nuttycombe

what I was saying with, uh, for the fact that I think that these pro-Trump young voters, college voters, are not really going to be motivated to come out this year.

34:33.70

Chaz Nuttycombe

It's going to be a big thing. I'm also am interested because in these college districts, because look, the most important years in determining voting behavior later in life are when you're in your teenage years and you're in your early twenties.

34:50.97

Chaz Nuttycombe

Um, Um, right. And that, and that applies for like a whole bunch of other things psychologically. but like if there's a recession or like if these tariffs are, you know, like G Elliot Morris posted like that, uh, you know, Nintendo's news that the switch to is getting delayed or the pre-orders are getting delayed. Right.

35:11.62

Chaz Nuttycombe

Um, Um, And 18 to 25-year-old men love love gaming. they They do. you know I don't i know really play many video games much myself anymore, but maybe that's because I'm exiting the demographic.

35:28.16

Chaz Nuttycombe

But anywho, think that... it are these gains permanent or where are these, are these college kids just, they like Trump and then they don't show out or do they like Trump?

35:42.58

Chaz Nuttycombe

they are voting Democrat for everything else maybe, or did they like Trump in 2024, but now that they're not getting their, uh, switch to, or now that they're seeing like everything getting more expensive if the terrorists do that, you know, this year,

35:58.12

Chaz Nuttycombe

You know, are they are they now Democrats? Are they now like going to be out protesting? You know, I saw a TikTok that said like, you know, there's no young people at this. Was it the hands off protest?

36:09.01

Chaz Nuttycombe

Right. No teenagers, no Zoomers, no nothing. So that's that's my fat, like one of my two fascinations uh or i would say it's it's my big fascination with or what i'm looking for for virginia 2025 like those are those are the districts i'm keeping my eyes peeled on and i i'm kind of surprised that you know like that liberty district you know the lynchburg district wasn't on like the house dems list of uh of targeted districts because

36:40.56

Chaz Nuttycombe

Walker underperformed Trump by like three points. And, you know, the fact of the matter is that I think i think Walker is going to have a difficult time getting those Liberty students out.

36:52.72

Chaz Nuttycombe

So, but, you know, yeah, it voted for Trump by 11 points and that's probably all we see. So, you know, it'll be interesting to see those districts, but obviously, yeah, the 41st, I would say is I would say the 41st is the most competitive.

37:07.96

Chaz Nuttycombe

So.

37:08.86

Sam Shirazi

Yeah, well, I appreciate your thoughts on that. Welcome to the old man club. And you know now we'll have to figure out what the kids decided to do this year. I did want to leave you just, I did have one last question before we let you go.

37:22.94

Sam Shirazi

And it's actually a question about 2026. And I know this podcast is about 2025, but I want to get your thoughts on Virginia's first district. So I thought it would be closer in 2020.

37:35.43

Sam Shirazi

But Rob Whitman, the current incumbent Republican, was able to win by 13 percent, even though Trump

37:40.24

Chaz Nuttycombe

You mean 2024? You're all good.

37:41.74

Sam Shirazi

Yeah, so in 2024, 2024, that Rob Whitman was able to win the district by 13%, even though Trump won it by around 5%.

37:44.78

Chaz Nuttycombe

yeah i

37:55.28

Sam Shirazi

So Whitman really overperformed Trump, which I didn't think he overperformed that much, but... He was able to do it. I want to get your thoughts because it seems like Democrats might be thinking about targeting the first in 2026. I mean, given that Whitman won by 13 percent in 2024, mean, do you think that's realistic or you think it's a reach district? I mean, the other thing, too, is like by the time Democrats, if they win this district, they've already have this massive massive House majority. So I don't i don't know if it's really worth going after, but it seems like they're interested in going after him. What are your thoughts on the first in 2026?

38:30.00

Chaz Nuttycombe

Well, Dave Brat also won against a paper candidate in 2016 in Virginia 7 while Trump was nearly winning that district. Right. I mean, Whitman has never run against a Democrat that was trying to beat him in his life.

38:46.79

Chaz Nuttycombe

he's never run in a targeted race, I guess you could say. You know, we can say like, OK, the Democrat, you know, that ran against him in 2018 or 2020.

38:56.44

Chaz Nuttycombe

You know, they were trying to beat him, but they didn't have the resources. You can, you can say that, but either way, he hasn't run against a, a strong democratic campaign. I had, was I had a great conversation with a democratic consultant, uh, earlier this year.

39:15.17

Chaz Nuttycombe

And I was asking, you know, who do you think the Democrats should recruit, for that district? And he said, and I think, I think it is the right answer.

39:26.33

Chaz Nuttycombe

You know, I saw, I saw Virginia political meme tweet, like, you know, a lot of names that we know, but I think that, this, this consultant's answer of it's probably gotta be someone that we don't know right now. Right. So we haven't heard of like Abigail Spanberger, right. Nobody had heard of her.

39:44.21

Chaz Nuttycombe

Um, Um, when, you know, she was running for the district, right. And, and the seventh and. uh, 20, 2018. and the question is like, what is, what is the profile?

39:56.09

Chaz Nuttycombe

I think that it, I think that like Whitman is probably in danger if it's maybe someone from the peninsula or or, one of the, let's, let's say one of the peninsulas, but I would say probably the peninsula, right.

40:12.22

Chaz Nuttycombe

Um, Um, the historic triangle is probably where Democrats would probably most likely find a recruit and probably a good recruit. cause that's a big thing that, that Whitman has is, you know, he wins a lot of crossover voters in that district because he's, or in that area because he's represented that area during his, you know, for, for 20 years.

40:31.88

Chaz Nuttycombe

Um, Um, but I think that like, you know, if Democrats can get someone out in Hanover from outside of Ashland, right. So like someone in Mechanicsville, that bites into Whitman a lot.

40:45.75

Chaz Nuttycombe

Um, Um, Or yeah, they can maybe get like a rural Democrat from, you know, the Middle Peninsula. The the consultant said Middle Peninsula, but I think Northern Neck would be a good answer as well.

41:02.06

Chaz Nuttycombe

Right. Maybe like Colonial Beach or something. You know, that was that was a town that voted for Cane in 2018, if I recall correctly, and and now is very Republican. So I think like if Democrats can get someone from one of the peninsulas, or Hanover, and you know, said candidate can raise money.

41:24.55

Chaz Nuttycombe

i think Whitman is in a lot of trouble. But if Democrats are like recruiting someone from Henrico or Chesterfield, I think that's a good sign for Whitman because like there's there's only so much room, I think, that Democrats can get out of those two counties.

41:43.63

Chaz Nuttycombe

I mean, yeah, Whitman you know ran ahead of Trump and in both of those segments of the district in 2024. But I think all you have to do is put a feather on it and then you get it to presidential levels, maybe a little bit better, you know, to do a little bit better than presidential levels.

42:01.31

Chaz Nuttycombe

So I think Democrats, if they've got a nominee from Henrico or Chesterfield, I think that's a mistake on their part. so I think that's the thing to watch for is it's just who candidate there, or who the Democrats recruit as a candidate, because that's going to determine, how competitive this race is going to be is where is that democratic candidate from?

42:22.77

Chaz Nuttycombe

Um, Um, but you know, for the fact that, yeah, this is going to be what means, I think regardless, this is going to be Whitman's real race in 2026. The question is, is it like a toss up or is it, you know, like he's got like a 70 or 80% chance of winning somewhere in that ballpark.

42:41.82

Chaz Nuttycombe

And I think that really is going to come down to candidate quality on the Democratic side. So that's something we've got to watch for the next several months. You know, Spanberger was on the campaign trail in 2017. She was knocking doors for Skyler, knocking doors for Dawn and Dawn Adams and Deborah Rodman. I'm I'm pretty sure Larry Barnett as well, right, going to those events.

43:04.47

Chaz Nuttycombe

So, you know, it could be someone in the very room that, is is out there on the House Delegate campaign offices this year.

43:14.98

Chaz Nuttycombe

So, you know, we'll see.

43:17.42

Sam Shirazi

Yeah, that's a good point. I mean, even though and we got to get through 2025 first, it's going to be important for 2026 as well. So Chaz, thanks for coming on. I really appreciate it. I'm sure everyone's going to like hearing in about all your thoughts and check out State Navigate if you haven't had already. And thank you again, Chaz. And I'll see you next time on Federal Fallout.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit samshirazi.substack.com

00:00.76

Sam Shirazi

Hi everyone, I'm Sam Shirazi and this is Federal Fallout the 2025 Virginia Elections. This episode we will review the Virginia primary filing deadline and then we'll explore if the June primary might be the real contest this year in Virginia.

00:16.20

Sam Shirazi

So to kick things off, on the Democratic side, no other candidate filed for governor other than former Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger. So she will be the Democratic nominee.

00:27.72

Sam Shirazi

There was not much suspense leading up to the Democratic filing deadline for governor.

00:34.66

Sam Shirazi

Congressman Bobby Scott had toyed with the idea of running, or at least didn't shoot down the idea, but it was pretty clear at the end that he was not going to be filing because he did not gather signatures.

00:47.79

Sam Shirazi

And so as expected, former Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger is the Democratic nominee for governor. On the Republican side, things are not so simple.

00:59.24

Sam Shirazi

Lieutenant Governor Winsome Sears had already filed her paperwork as soon as she could, and she has qualified for the primary ballot on the Republican side for governor.

01:08.58

Sam Shirazi

And there were two candidates also attempting to make the ballot, former delegate Dave LaRock and former state Senator Amanda Chase. And Dave LaRock on the filing deadline on Thursday,

01:21.49

Sam Shirazi

He said that he did not have enough signatures, so you need 10,000 signatures, valid signatures from voters registered in Virginia, including 400 from each congressional district.

01:34.26

Sam Shirazi

And Dave LaRock said he got about 9,000, which is obviously less than 10,000, so he did not end up filing. So he will not be on the primary ballot in Virginia.

01:45.80

Sam Shirazi

But Amanda Chase did file her paperwork. And so that means it's possible there could be a primary. And I wanted to just break down the process of what's going to happen next, because just because someone files the paperwork doesn't automatically mean that they're going to be on the ballot.

02:02.72

Sam Shirazi

So the biggest obstacle to be on the ballot in Virginia for statewide office this year is the 10,000 signature requirement. And I thought I'd take some time to really break down how to get those signatures and what they have what has to happen in order for those signatures to be counted as valid.

02:20.48

Sam Shirazi

So right off the back bat, the signatures have to be from registered voters in Virginia. You cannot just have random people signing the ballot. They do have to be registered to vote in Virginia.

02:33.36

Sam Shirazi

On top of that, 400 signatures have to come from each of Virginia's 11 congressional districts, basically to ensure that you have some geographic support across Virginia and it's not just concentrated in one part of Virginia.

02:48.20

Sam Shirazi

So those are kind of the basic requirements. But then the actual mechanics of filling out the signature form require some other things to have happen. First, the voter has to print their name.

03:01.68

Sam Shirazi

They have to sign their name. They have to give their full legal address where they reside, and they have to sign and date the signature petition. And if any one of those things are off, then that individual will not be counted towards the 10,000. And one of the things that can go wrong, people don't date it. People don't sign it. People give their partial address. People give their partial name. I mean, you know if you've ever done signature collection you know that there's a lot of ways that this could go wrong, particularly if people are in a rush, they're hurrying.

03:36.36

Sam Shirazi

The person collecting the signatures is doing a lot of different things and is not maybe focused. And and it it often there are many signatures when a candidate submits that are not valid.

03:49.05

Sam Shirazi

And it's often a good idea to submit way over the minimum to ensure that for whatever reason, if any of your signatures are knocked off, you still have the minimum to meet the requirements.

03:59.73

Sam Shirazi

And then on top of that, let's say you fill out a petition petition signature form all correctly, all the signatures are correct. The person who gathered the signatures has to get the petition signature form notarized.

04:11.30

Sam Shirazi

And, you know, that's not a huge barrier, but it does require someone who is authorized to be a notary in Virginia to sign that. And so that is, all those things have to be right. And if anything's wrong on the petition signature form,

04:27.30

Sam Shirazi

form, then the form can get thrown out, the signatures can get thrown out. And so all that's to say is there's a lot of things that could go wrong if you are just trying to get the bare minimum number of signatures.

04:39.14

Sam Shirazi

And the thing with Amanda Chase is she was trying to do this very quickly with a lot of volunteers who may or may not be familiar with all these different requirements. And so there's a lot of room for error.

04:50.66

Sam Shirazi

And I will say this about Amanda Chase. I think she put in her paperwork acknowledging that she does not exactly know how many signatures are valid. she does She's not gone through and validated them all because she said she didn't have the time to do that. So long way of saying...

05:08.03

Sam Shirazi

We're still not sure if she would be able to make the ballot even after she submitted her paperwork. And so what happens now is the signatures are in and they will be reviewed to see if they are actually valid signatures of registered voters in Virginia.

05:24.64

Sam Shirazi

And that can take some time because you have to go signature by signature. And we'll see what ends up happening. I don't think we are going to find out for few days what the final call is in terms of determining if Amanda Chase made the primary ballot.

05:40.96

Sam Shirazi

And Keep in mind, if she is determined not to make the ballot, we'll see if she pursues any appeals or legal remedies to try to get on the ballot. So this could still drag on a little bit longer, even though Amanda Chase has filed the paperwork to get on the ballot.

05:58.54

Sam Shirazi

So having said all that, we will just have to wait and see what happens. I think obviously if there is a primary on the Republican side for governor, I will probably do a whole episode on it because it's a big deal.

06:09.77

Sam Shirazi

And it will take a lot of the attention on the Republican side away from former Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger, who's the Democratic nominee, and shift that to the Republican primary and Republican Winston Sears and Amanda Chase will have to go after each other and and try to win that primary.

06:26.75

Sam Shirazi

Now, again, it may not happen. We just have to wait and see. So I don't want to spend too much time on it right now, but wanted to just give everyone an update of where things stand for the Republican primary for Governor.

06:38.68

Sam Shirazi

Okay, so now let's move on to lieutenant governor. So just because there isn't a primary for governor on the Democratic side, we already know that Abigail Spanberger will be the nominee, doesn't mean there is not going to be a Democratic primary.

06:51.14

Sam Shirazi

There will be a Democratic statewide primary in all parts of Virginia for lieutenant governor and attorney general. And lieutenant governor is the race that has a lot of candidates who have filed and all the candidates have that have made it, I will list them out.

07:08.47

Sam Shirazi

And we can just quickly talk about that. So the Democratic Party has confirmed that Alex Bastani, Ghazala Hashmi, Babur Lateef, Aaron Rouse,

07:19.96

Sam Shirazi

Victor Salgado, and LeVar Stoney have all made the primary ballot. So that is six candidates running on the Democratic side for lieutenant governor.

07:30.60

Sam Shirazi

It will be a crowded race, lot of different people running. I should note that Carl Eggleston had been running for lieutenant governor, but he indicated that he had to withdraw to due to to health reasons, so he will not be on the ballot. But still, we got six Democrats running for lieutenant governor.

07:48.50

Sam Shirazi

So a full ballot of Democrats, and it should be a pretty interesting race. I'll talk a little bit later on about what the primary might look like. So I might as well round up round out the Democratic primaries, at least for statewide office.

08:03.06

Sam Shirazi

For Attorney General, as I mentioned before, there will be a primary. Jay Jones and Shannon Taylor have both made the primary ballot. That will be a one-on-one contest. So the Democrats will have two statewide offices on the primary ballot, Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General.

08:19.11

Sam Shirazi

On the Republican side, it appears there will also be a Lieutenant Governor primary. for the Republicans. So Pat Harity had already filed his paperwork and he has been confirmed to be on the ballot. And then right before the filing deadline, John Reed also filed his paperwork and that will be processed. I assume that he will likely be on the ballot. So I think the Republicans will have a statewide primary as well on the ballot in June.

08:49.17

Sam Shirazi

I should note that John Curran had also been running on the Republican side for lieutenant governor. I haven't heard a whole lot. I don't think that he filed his paperwork, but I'm sure I'll find out if I'm wrong about that. But it looks like it will be a one-on-one primary on the Republican side for lieutenant governor.

09:06.24

Sam Shirazi

And then for attorney general, there will not be a primary on the Republican side because Jason Miyares was the only candidate that filed. He's an incumbent. Obviously, it was unlikely that anyone serious would run against him.

09:20.21

Sam Shirazi

And so Jason Miyares will be the Republican nominee for attorney general. Okay, now I should talk about what the primary might look like and if it's it's the real contest this year in Virginia. And what I mean by that is a lot of people focus on November and there's going to be a lot fewer voters who come out on June 17th to vote in these primaries. Now, there'll probably be a several hundred thousand when you take both the Democrats and Republicans, but In the November election, there'll be at least 2 million, I'm guessing, if not more, probably well over 2 million people voting in the general election.

09:57.34

Sam Shirazi

But for the primaries, you might get, you're going to get less than 25% that. Probably, I'm guessing. I'm guessing we may get up to half a million in both primaries.

10:11.49

Sam Shirazi

And so we'll see. We'll see what those races look like. You know, on the Republican side, a lot depends on if there's actually going to be a primary for governor. If there's a primary for governor, you're going to see a lot more turnout.

10:24.01

Sam Shirazi

And we could see a lot more people showing up in June for the primary. If it's just lieutenant governor on the Republican side, I mean, it's hard to know how many people are going to come out for that.

10:36.16

Sam Shirazi

It's probably only and only going to be pretty hardcore Republicans who are going to show up for lieutenant governor primary in June.

10:42.24

Sam Shirazi

On the Democratic side, I think you're going to have more turnout because in the lieutenant governor's race, there's a lot of people running and there's also an attorney general race on the ballot. So you're going to have two of these races.

10:54.55

Sam Shirazi

And the reason I say, you know, is this the real primary? I don't want to get too far ahead of myself, but as I talked about in my special bonus episode about the Wisconsin Supreme Court election, I mean, things are looking kind of dicey for the Republicans.

11:10.97

Sam Shirazi

And so there's a decent chance that if former Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger wins and she wins by a decent margin, she's just going to take the entire ticket with her. And so if that ends up happening,

11:23.53

Sam Shirazi

then but the primary in June is going to basically determine who's going to be the next Lieutenant Governor and the next Attorney General because they're going to win.

11:33.89

Sam Shirazi

They'll get on the ticket with Abigail Spanberger and then she's going to carry the ticket. And realistically, there isn't a whole lot of ticket splitting these days. And so the Democrats are just going to sweep the statewide offices. That's what's happened in the last four Virginia elections.

11:46.86

Sam Shirazi

The party that's won the governor's race has swept every other statewide office. So I say that because I think there's a lot on the line in the June 17th primary. Oftentimes people focus on the general election. a lot of people don't vote in these primaries.

12:00.12

Sam Shirazi

But I think it's really important that people vote both in the primary and the general election because obviously the and the person who wins the general election has to win the primary first. And so – You can't become lieutenant governor or attorney general without winning the primary.

12:14.62

Sam Shirazi

So I just think it's it's important that people not just focus on November. I think June 17th is going to be an important date as well. I should also quickly note that there will be a number of primaries for the House of Delegates. I will go over all that in a separate episode because that's a lot of different races.

12:32.44

Sam Shirazi

A lot of the House of Delegates races, however, will not have primaries because only one candidate has filed for either the Democrats or Republicans. So there's actually going to be a fair amount of House of Delegates races that won't have a primary in June.

12:45.77

Sam Shirazi

There will be some that that do have primaries, and obviously I'll go over that in another episode. I'm still waiting on the final list of primaries, which the Department of Elections will put out, but I'm guessing the majority of House of Delegates districts will not have a primary. So it's actually going to be the minority of districts that will have primaries, and that's because – incumbents A lot of them are in safe districts. They haven't faced primary challengers.

13:10.36

Sam Shirazi

And then the people who are running against them often, especially if it's a safe red or blue district, there isn't going to be a lot of people who want to run. And so there might not be a primary.

13:21.18

Sam Shirazi

Long story short, we'll have to wait and see what's going on with the House of Delegates. I'll obviously do an episode on the House of Delegates primaries once the final list of candidates who will appear on the primary ballot comes out.

13:33.88

Sam Shirazi

Okay. I wanted to just pivot a little bit and talk about one other thing before I wrap this episode up, and that is about the Republicans' chances this year. As you can tell, I've kind of taken the view that things are not going super great right now for the Republicans in Virginia.

13:51.01

Sam Shirazi

few reasons for that, obviously the firing of federal workers and their continued restructuring of the federal government – The name of this podcast is Federal Fallout. A lot of the premise of the podcast has been that that is going to have an impact in Virginia.

14:05.37

Sam Shirazi

So you have that. And then... This week, we also saw what President Trump called Liberation Day with an announcement that there was going to be a lot of tariffs.

14:16.81

Sam Shirazi

The stock market was not super pleased with that and stocks were down and there was a lot of turmoil in the financial markets. And a lot of companies are starting to get nervous because of the risk that that could lead to an economic downturn.

14:31.24

Sam Shirazi

And so that is also not in the background, and it is not necessarily great news for Virginia Republicans that people are also getting nervous about the overall economy while the Virginia economy is being delta blow by what DOGE is doing in DC. So there's a lot going on right now for Virginia Republicans.

14:53.29

Sam Shirazi

Now, having said all that, I don't want to pretend like the race is over. There's no chance that they could win. And so I did want to just talk a little bit and think through, you know, how they could potentially make a comeback in this race.

15:06.62

Sam Shirazi

I think one possibility is that DOGE wraps up its work. There have been reports that at the end of May, when Elon Musk's temporary employment with the federal government comes to an end, he may move aside.

15:19.60

Sam Shirazi

And there's a world where DOGE kind of does its thing and there's some restructuring in the federal government. And then that's kind of the end of it. And everyone moves on. So while it's a big story right now, maybe by November, it's not as big of a deal.

15:33.52

Sam Shirazi

That's possible. I think the danger in that is that obviously... The people who are affected, if you were laid off, you're still going to be probably upset about that in November. And the fact that the project might have ended is not really going to be that much comfort to you. So I'm not sure how much of a change game changer that would be for the Virginia Republicans, but it's something that could take it out of the news. And in theory, the less that there is news about layoffs of federal workers, the better it would be for Virginia Republicans.

16:03.89

Sam Shirazi

And I think the tariffs are tricky because right now they're causing a lot of havoc in the financial markets. Again, it's possible that either of the markets just take the take the tariff but the hit right now and then they kind of go on and and the economy continues. It's also possible. I think one of the reasons the stock market is a little bit in flux right now is people don't know what's the end game because on the one hand, President Trump seems really serious about these tariffs and he has always wanted to do tariffs and this is his chance to do tariffs.

16:35.83

Sam Shirazi

But on the other hand, you're also seeing hearing some of conflicting things like, well, these tariffs are just being used as a negotiating position and I think there's a hope that maybe – Countries will come and make deals with President Trump and then he'll lower the tariffs. And so in the long run, the tariffs aren't really going to be a huge deal because it's just going to cause some changes to some of the trading relationships and some of the rules between the U.S. s and other countries.

17:03.15

Sam Shirazi

But it's not going to fundamentally cause a huge shift in things. And again, i think that's a really open question. It's hard to know right now. I think the markets are starting to realize that maybe President Trump is serious about the tariffs. And I think some of the losses recently have been because the markets are coming to that realization. There was a hope that maybe and this was more of a negotiating tactic or that it wouldn't cause that big of an impact to the economy.

17:28.59

Sam Shirazi

think now we're seeing that it is going to have an impact on the economy. The question is, Is the impact in April and then things kind of recalibrate and everyone continues on and then the economy is pretty much okay in November? Or is this really kind of a long-term readjustment of the U.S. economy?

17:47.70

Sam Shirazi

It may cause short-term recession while things change. It's hard to know. Obviously, that's going to be one of those things that is going to be in the background of the Virginia governor's race.

17:58.54

Sam Shirazi

And so what are some of the issues that the Virginia Republicans are going to go be running on this year? And I think it's a little bit scattered. So sometimes you'll see them post about immigration. Sometimes you'll see them post about trans issues. Sometimes you'll see them post about COVID.

18:12.37

Sam Shirazi

Sometimes it's about President Biden. And so you have all these different things that the Virginia Republicans are throwing out there to just see what sticks.

18:24.83

Sam Shirazi

And I get it from a political standpoint that you're you're obviously trying to focus on other things, but I just don't know how much it's going to break through in a way that will connect to voters because obviously the Republicans had a fair amount of success when former President Biden was in office, but it's always easier to be in opposition. And now that the Republicans are in power in DC, they have a record they have to defend and

18:49.79

Sam Shirazi

I think posting about all these other things, while I get it, you're trying to fire up your base. I'm not sure how much that's going to resonate with voters in the middle who are expecting Republicans to be in charge of things and take some responsibility for some of the things that are going on.

19:04.86

Sam Shirazi

But I also wanted to to say that there is a universe where let's say Governor Youngkin gets really involved in the race this year, or maybe Elon Musk decides to donate a lot of money. Maybe he steps back after what happened in Wisconsin and isn't the face of the Republican Party, but he still is giving his money to the Republicans. And while obviously the Democrats will tie up try to tie the money to Musk, it's a little bit harder if he stays off the campaign trail to make the race about Elon Musk.

19:34.72

Sam Shirazi

And then you can see President Trump coming in, maybe campaigning in rural areas. And so the Republicans find a way to get their base excited and they turn out. And that'll at least you know put them in contention.

19:48.20

Sam Shirazi

I think the big question or the issue for the Republicans is if you look at 2021, things were going well for them. They basically had the political winds at their back. In the summer, there was the withdrawal from Afghanistan and all the issues that happened there.

20:03.82

Sam Shirazi

There was COVID. People were getting tired of all the COVID restrictions and the masks, and the Republicans really were able to use that energy. And then you had Governor Youngkin running He had his own money and he was getting a lot of support. And so you had a really good environment for Republicans in 2021.

20:21.38

Sam Shirazi

And still he only won by two, even though the Republicans had everything going for them in 2021. and He was able to reach independent voters and more moderate voters and convince them to vote for the Republicans.

20:35.42

Sam Shirazi

And the question is, like, how do the Republicans do that this year? and i mean, obviously, they're going to be talking about the issues they like to talk about immigration, crime, immigration. is And, you know, I'm sure that there will be some people who support that, their positions on those things.

20:50.72

Sam Shirazi

Question is become it becomes, is is this the year where they're going to be able to get enough moderate voters to come out and to get the rural turnout that they're able to win like they did 2021, which it was a close election, even with all the things going right for them in 2021?

21:08.83

Sam Shirazi

I wish we can get a good high quality poll of the Virginia governor's race. I think it's been a while since we've gotten a poll and i just it would be nice to get a little bit of a pulse check.

21:18.74

Sam Shirazi

to see where things are. i think the last polling had showed former Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger up by a little bit. We can kind of see if shes that lead has grown. Is it roughly where it was?

21:31.80

Sam Shirazi

And I think that would be helpful. Obviously, we just have to wait for the next poll to come out. But i do I do think it's a valid question to just think about you know what is the coalition that Republicans are going to put together to get to roughly 50% to win this race?

21:48.18

Sam Shirazi

And you know I guess the one reason I should try to tampen down some expectations for Democrats, I think I remember in 2021 around this time, around this time So I remember 2021 around this time when there were some suggestions, well, maybe Republicans are going to have a shot in Virginia in 2021.

22:07.03

Sam Shirazi

And a lot of people kind of batted that down. No, Virginia is a blue state. Biden just won Virginia by 10 points. And obviously by November, the Republicans were able to turn things around and then they won that race in 2021.

22:21.14

Sam Shirazi

So I don't want to pretend like that's impossible. But again, what's the difference between 2021 and 2025?

22:28.53

Sam Shirazi

2021, we had a Democratic president. 2025, obviously, we're Republican president. And so i I think we'll just have to see if that historical pattern of the party that's not in the White House just gets a big boost in the Virginia governor's race, and that's just too hard to overcome.

22:42.20

Sam Shirazi

I don't want to belabor the point. I think we'll just have to to wait and see. But it's going to be an interesting year this year in Virginia. i will try to talk about the general election every once in a while, but I did want to just draw people's attention to the primary. It will be on June 17th.

23:00.33

Sam Shirazi

Early voting starts soon, about a month away. Early May will be the start of early voting in Virginia. So really not that far away.

23:09.55

Sam Shirazi

I think the primary this year in Virginia is going to be really important and it's not going to get the same amount of attention as the general election and the governor's race, but I do think it's really important. So follow along. Next few episodes, we'll be talking about different aspects of the primary. And so I appreciate everyone listening.

23:25.97

Sam Shirazi

I will join you next week on Federal Fallout.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit samshirazi.substack.com

00:00.71

Sam Shirazi

Hi, everyone. I'm Sam Shirazi, and this is Federal Fallout the 2025 Virginia Elections. This is a special bonus episode that will look at the Wisconsin Supreme Court race and what it means for Virginia this November.

00:16.38

Sam Shirazi

So it was a really crazy race in Wisconsin for the Supreme Court election there. Wisconsin always has really competitive elections, and this was no exception. Both sides came in. They spent a lot of money.

00:29.41

Sam Shirazi

They really emphasize this seat on the Supreme Court because it would decide the balance of the Wisconsin Supreme Court. Currently, there's a four to three liberal majority. And after the election, there will continue to be a four to three liberal majority because the candidate that the Democrats backed for the Wisconsin Supreme Court won that election, it looks like between nine and 10 points.

00:52.21

Sam Shirazi

And this was a a really big win for Democrats in Wisconsin because obviously Both sides had invested a lot in this race, but also Elon Musk had come in and he had spent a lot of money to try to help the Republicans flip this state Supreme Court seat, but they weren't able to do that.

01:11.67

Sam Shirazi

And overall, it was just a really good night for Democrats. There were two special elections in Florida in deep red seats. And while Democrats didn't win those elections, They did a lot better than they did in 2024.

01:26.02

Sam Shirazi

So really across the board, we're seeing a really strong environment right now for Democrats. And I think there's a combination of factors. One of them is just the reality that anytime a party comes into power, the opposition party tends to gain both with their own base that gets fired up because of what's going on in Washington, but also because people start moving over to the other side because they might not be happy what with what the ruling party is doing.

01:52.94

Sam Shirazi

And then there's also the reality that Democrats now are doing really well with with what are called high propensity voters. So high propensity voters are those voters who always come out, vote in every election. Doesn't matter if it's a school board, or they will vote in every single election. Typically those voters skew to be more college educated, wealthier voters. And those voters have during the Trump era really become a lot more democratic.

02:19.95

Sam Shirazi

The Republican coalition has become what's known more as low propensity voters. So those are voters that typically don't vote a whole lot other than for president. And President Trump was able to bring them out in 2024.

02:34.12

Sam Shirazi

But the downside for Republicans is those voters do not always show up in these elections that are not presidential elections. Obviously, this Wisconsin Supreme Court race was in April right after the presidential election.

02:48.61

Sam Shirazi

and it was just difficult for the Republicans to get out their base. And I think that was one thing that Elon Musk was trying to do. He was trying to come in and really reach those voters that are hard to reach.

02:59.65

Sam Shirazi

But the reality is, it seems like really President Trump is the only one who's able to turn out those voters, and he can really only do them for presidential elections. And so I think that there was a lot going on in Wisconsin. And you know obviously, I'm not an expert in Wisconsin, but But clearly the Democrats had a good night.

03:19.22

Sam Shirazi

And so the question becomes, what does all this mean for Virginia? So, I mean, it it's hard to extrapolate to November because this was one election in one state in April.

03:32.98

Sam Shirazi

But I think one thing to keep in mind is the turnout was relatively high in this election. I think some of the observers said that it was going to be close to midterm level turnout. And when you're seeing that level of turnout, the Democrats are still able to win.

03:48.00

Sam Shirazi

think the Republicans have to ask themselves, you know, what's going to happen in November in Virginia. And, you know, realistically, most people think that Democrats started off with an advantage just because they were not in the White House. and And I've talked about it before. The party that's not in the White House typically does well in Virginia elections. So I think most people would say that Democrats started off with that advantage.

04:12.72

Sam Shirazi

And you know Given that Virginia governor's races are almost always competitive, even if the Democrats have an advantage, I think most people also said that it was still going to be a competitive race this year in Virginia.

04:25.02

Sam Shirazi

I think once the inauguration happened and the scale of what President Trump and Elon Musk were are going to do in terms of Doge and the restructuring of the federal government, the laying off of workers, cutting federal funds,

04:40.19

Sam Shirazi

I think you know most observers quickly realize that obviously Virginia is dependent on federal jobs and federal money. And so it has to have an impact on what's going on on the campaign trail in Virginia, and it's going to have an impact on the election.

04:56.29

Sam Shirazi

the The question now becomes, you know is this a race where the Republicans are in a tough spot, but they might be able to to find a way to win? Or is this getting to the point where there's not a whole lot the Republicans can do to win this election in 2025.

05:13.39

Sam Shirazi

twenty twenty five Now, obviously, it's very early. There isn't a whole lot of data in terms of polling. So I don't want to draw big conclusions. I don't want to say, you know, Democrats are definitely going to win in Virginia this year. But I think the risk for the Republicans is, you know, the perception is things are getting pretty dicey for them. And while it seems like the election is a is a long way off,

05:34.22

Sam Shirazi

We really aren't that far from Election Day. Election Day is seven months away. Early voting in Virginia will start in late September. So that is not an eternity away. and And once people have kind of a perception of how things are going, it's hard to turn around the ship and kind of right the ship for the Republicans. And so the question they have to ask themselves is, you know, what is their strategy going into November to try to win this race? Because the danger for them is it just keeps slipping away.

06:04.24

Sam Shirazi

and And there's a few examples of this happening in recent Virginia history. Like I said, most Virginia elections end up being pretty close, but I think the two exceptions were 2009 and 2017. So 2009, the economy was really struggling.

06:19.93

Sam Shirazi

Virginia Republicans really were had a lot of momentum and there was really nothing the Democrats could win could can do to win that race in 2009. And nine and the democrat and excuse me the Republicans had a huge win in two thousand and nine in virginia 2017 was a little bit similar dynamic, I'd say, to 2025 in Wisconsin. In 2017, Democrats were really fired up because of the first Trump administration.

06:46.98

Sam Shirazi

and while it seemed close for most of that campaign, at the end, the Democrats really just got a big win and were able to win that race by about nine points.

06:56.91

Sam Shirazi

And so I think there's a risk for the Virginia Republicans that this could be a repeat of 2017 if there isn't some sort of change game changing moment.

07:07.12

Sam Shirazi

and And I should just caveat all that by saying, look, the reality is seven months is not a huge amount of time, but there's an old adage that a week is a long time in politics. So there's a lot that can still happen.

07:19.07

Sam Shirazi

I don't want to make it seem like this is not going to be a competitive election in Virginia. I think there are a lot of different factors you have to look at. You have to look at obviously Virginia being a more competitive state at for state elections versus federal elections. You have to look at polarization. a lot of voters just end up voting for their, the red team or the blue team. And it's hard to persuade a lot of voters to change their minds. You have to look at the possibility that Elon Musk can come in and spend a lot of money in Virginia. Although as we saw in Wisconsin, that didn't really make too much of a difference. And if anything,

07:57.13

Sam Shirazi

the Wisconsin Democrats were really able to use Elon Musk as a foil and to tie the Republican candidate for spring the state Supreme Court to Elon Musk and were able to you know energize their voters by going after Elon Musk. So it's kind of a question mark how much of impact he could have in Virginia.

08:17.53

Sam Shirazi

But regardless, obviously, he has a lot of money. And if he wanted to come in, he could he could come in. So those are all things that we have to think about when it comes to Virginia that it's not a given that Democrats are going to win and they're going to have a huge win.

08:32.96

Sam Shirazi

But I think with each day, as things are kind of going the way they're going, the odds of a kind of decent democratic victory in Virginia go up. And there has to be some sort of game changing moment at some point, if the Republicans really want to get back into this thing, because the reality is it's unlikely that Democrats are going to have a primary for governor and,

08:55.75

Sam Shirazi

it's you know it's almost certain that former congresswoman Abigail Spanberger is going to be the democratic nominee we'll see if the republicans have a primary we'll find out on tuesday on thursday with the filing deadline and we'll see if the two candidates who are trying to get on the ballot dave larock and amanda chase are able to get the 10 000 required signatures to get on the ballot but know democratic nominee is has been set for a while she's been fundraising for a while And she's got her message going. She's been opposing, former Congresswoman Spanberger has been opposing what's been going on in DC with Elon Musk and Doge and the attempts to fire federal workers.

09:38.90

Sam Shirazi

And so that's a pretty clear message. And the Republicans have not been able to come up with a kind coherent response other than to say that it's just basically necessary to have some of these workers laid off.

09:51.29

Sam Shirazi

And so, you know, I, I think it's it's going to be tough for the Virginia Republicans, to be honest. Now, having said all that, I do want to have some humility because i think November of 2024 taught a lot of people, particularly Democrats, that the reality is, you know, there there are a lot of voters that support Donald Trump. There are a lot of voters who believe in kind of that vision of America. And it's easy when you're in more of a bubble in certain areas to think, you know, that's how everyone in the country thinks and and look how how great the Democrats are doing in these elections. And obviously Democrats are going to continue winning and nothing is determined politics. Politics tends to surprise me. So I don't, I don't want to make it seem like there's no way the Republicans have a chance this year in Virginia.

10:45.78

Sam Shirazi

Having said all that, I mean, i think the big difference between November 2025 and November 2024 is going to be that these low propensity Trump voters, I don't know if they're going to necessarily come out for the Republicans.

11:00.98

Sam Shirazi

It's still an open question. i will say we do have an example from 2021 when when Governor Youngkin was able to win that election and and his campaign was able to turn out a lot of those people, particularly in rural areas.

11:15.64

Sam Shirazi

And that was kind of part of his secret to success in 2021 was he did relatively better in the suburbs, but he was able to really juice turnout in the rural areas. So in theory, the Republicans could do something similar like that in Virginia, where they basically juice the turnout in rural areas, keep the margins relatively close in suburban areas, and then, you know, get a narrow victory like Governor Youngkin did in 2021.

11:43.57

Sam Shirazi

You know, the issue is 2021 was a very different environment. Obviously, we had a Democratic president. We had kind of COVID fatigue at that point. i think it's going to be hard to see the Republicans cutting the margins in the suburbs right now. It could happen, but it it just doesn't seem like the environment where that would happen.

12:02.20

Sam Shirazi

you know Obviously, if President Trump comes in and campaigns or Elon Musk comes in and spends a lot of money, it's possible the rural areas in Virginia will have strong turnout and the Republicans can count on that. But it's also possible those areas will not have a lot of turnout because it's an off-year election and Democrats will get an even bigger win because the turnout just isn't there for the Republicans. So a lot of unknowns. I wanted to just do this podcast to give you some of my thoughts after the Wisconsin elections. And and I think it's easy to overread one election results.

12:36.44

Sam Shirazi

But the reality is both parties were looking at Wisconsin because it was the first big statewide contest, a lot of voters showing up. And they gave a pretty clear answer in Wisconsin with the Democrats winning the state Supreme Court race.

12:52.52

Sam Shirazi

And so I'll be curious to see if there's any sort of recalibration on the part of the Virginia Republicans. I think obviously Virginia Democrats are going to be happy. They're going to just kind of chug along, do their plan of opposing the changes to the federal government, which they seem to think is going to work, obviously, given how much Virginia is dependent on the federal government.

13:14.56

Sam Shirazi

And I guess the last thing I should note, I didn't want to spend too much time on the Florida special election because... The Democrats didn't end up winning those. And, and you know, obviously Florida is is a different political environment than Virginia.

13:28.47

Sam Shirazi

But there were two separate elections, and one of them was more in the Daytona Beach area, and then one of them was more in the Pensacola area. And the Democrats did relatively well in the Pensacola area, which is obviously home to a large military installation.

13:46.100

Sam Shirazi

lot of federal workers, both civilian and military, who are dependent on the federal government for their jobs and, or even if they weren't laid off, would still be affected by some of the changes that are going on in DC.

13:59.97

Sam Shirazi

And so I thought it was interesting that Democrats did pretty well in Pensacola military area. And, you know, you have to think, is that also going to happen in Hampton Roads?

14:11.62

Sam Shirazi

I think the Virginia Republicans are often describing the federal workers as just being in Northern Virginia. You know, Republicans don't do well in Northern Virginia anyway, so the changes to the federal government aren't going to be a big deal because most of the people affected are in Northern Virginia and they're already going to vote for the Democrats.

14:28.40

Sam Shirazi

I think the danger in that thinking is that if military the military workers, either a civilian or uniform military, start getting nervous about maybe losing their jobs or maybe they're unhappy with some of the things that are happening and happening in D.C.,

14:45.04

Sam Shirazi

they may also turn to the Democrats. And typically, more military-aligned voters historically have been more Republican, but we have seen times when they've swung towards the Democrats. And Hampton Roads is known for being a real swing swing area where one election will vote for Democrats, the next election will vote for Republicans, and I'll just kind of keep going back and forth.

15:05.33

Sam Shirazi

And obviously, there are some competitive House of Delegates races in Hampton Roads. And so, you know, if if the issue with the federal workers reaches Hampton Roads, I think the Republicans are going to be in even more danger than just the issues they're already having in Northern Virginia. So anyways, lots of things going on with these special elections. I will probably still talk about it during the regular podcast, which will come out Saturday morning. But I did want to talk about it right now because obviously it's on people's minds. And then also on Thursday will be the filing deadline. So I think there's going to be a lot of

15:39.78

Sam Shirazi

things that we can talk about with the filing deadline and potential primaries. And I also wanted to talk about the Democratic primary some more, given the results in Wisconsin. So anyways, exciting times in Virginia elections.

15:53.24

Sam Shirazi

keep Keep paying attention. And I hope that you will listen to the podcast that will come out on Saturday morning. And thanks, everyone, for listening. And I will see you next time on Federal Fallout.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit samshirazi.substack.com

00:00.77

Sam Shirazi

Hi everyone, I'm Sam Shirazi and this is Federal Fallout the 2025 Virginia Elections. This episode we will look at the most competitive races in the Virginia House of Delegates this year.

00:12.77

Sam Shirazi

The main focus will be a preview of the general election. I will do a separate episode about the primaries in the Virginia House of Delegates after the filing deadline passes. So, why should you care about the Virginia House of Delegates elections in Virginia?

00:27.52

Sam Shirazi

Well, here is a fun fact. If Democrats flip the governor's mansion this year in Virginia, it will be the first time an incoming Democratic governor will have a trifecta since 1989 when Doug Wilder won.

00:41.41

Sam Shirazi

So a trifecta means that the Democrats have the governor's mansion, they have the state Senate, and they have the House of Delegates. And so right off the bat, whoever is it is the governor, if they're a Democrat, most likely at this point, it looks like the nominee will be former Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger, if she gets elected, she will be able to pass bills very quickly because the Democrats have the State Senate, they have the House of Delegates.

01:04.89

Sam Shirazi

She can send her priorities over to the General Assembly and they can work on them. The only time the Democrats have had a trifecta since Doug Wilder was elected was a brief period between 2019 and 2021 when Northam had And when ralph northam had one and Just keep in mind, he didn't come in with a trifecta. That was after the Democrats won in 2019.

01:26.86

Sam Shirazi

So there was only a two-year period in the last 35-plus years where the Democrats have had a trifecta in Virginia. And one of the big problems Governor Youngkin faced while he was governor is that he never had a private trifecta.

01:40.09

Sam Shirazi

And so the Democrats were able to block his bills, and he wasn't able to pass much of his legislative agenda. So in addition, besides being able to pass bills, which is obviously very important, if Democrats win the House of Delegates this year in Virginia, they can place three constitutional amendments on the ballot next year for the voters to decide on amendments and changes to the Virginia Constitution. And the three amendments would be one on reproductive rights, one on marriage equality, and one on

02:11.86

Sam Shirazi

Restoring voting rights to people after they're released from prison serving a felony sentence. Currently, Virginia is one of the only states that bars a prisoner, if someone convicted of felony for the rest of their lives from voting. Unless the governor restores it, the amendment would automatically restore rights once someone is finished with their sentence. So there's a lot on the line, not just...

02:34.47

Sam Shirazi

for the next governor that's coming in, but really for the Virginia Constitution, if those ballots get on the, and if those amendments get on the ballot, I mean, that has long-term implications and it's very difficult to amend the Virginia Constitution. So I think the Virginia House Delegates doesn't get a lot of attention or you know there's some talk that Democrats might be able to pick up seats, but no one really talks about the stakes and why it's important.

02:58.79

Sam Shirazi

for the Virginia House Delegates elections to happen and and what they mean in the grand scheme of things. So I think it's important to not just focus on the horse race, even though most of this podcast is going to be looking at the horse race and who's up, who's down, which districts look competitive.

03:14.57

Sam Shirazi

I did want to mention that you know there are real things on the line and real policies that will be affected by who's elected in the Virginia House of Elections. Having said that, let's turn to the current lay of the land because I know people want to know what are the districts that are really going to be competitive this year.

03:30.30

Sam Shirazi

And so to keep in mind, all 100 seats in the Virginia House of Delegates are up for election. And currently Democrats have a 51-49 majority. But only a handful of those seats will be competitive.

03:44.02

Sam Shirazi

And there are currently eight seats that but former Vice President Harris won in 2024 that Republicans currently hold. And obviously, Democrats are going to be on the offense trying to potentially flip those eight seats.

03:57.20

Sam Shirazi

I think realistically, at this point, there are a few Democratic seats that might be competitive, and I'll talk about them. But I think given the environment, where the party out of the White House typically does well in Virginia elections and some of the issues we've talked about with the firing of federal workers, I think there's a sense that Democrats start off with an advantage in the House of Delegates elections and that if anything, they have the opportunity to flip some seats and we'll we'll talk about which seats might be in play.

04:24.35

Sam Shirazi

Having said that, it's not a given that Democrats will win all the Harris seats that former Vice President Harris won in 2024, or even that they'll flip the majority of them. I think there's a lot of factors you have to look at.

04:36.94

Sam Shirazi

You have to look at the fact that Virginia is more Democratic-leaning in federal elections than state elections. So I think people are more likely to vote for Republicans for state elections in Virginia as as compared to federal elections.

04:49.75

Sam Shirazi

Most of the seats that are competitive have incumbent Republicans who've won before. So that's always more difficult to defeat an incumbent. And there's always the possibility of ticket splitting. So there's something called you know ancestral Republican areas, typically in the suburbs where people used to vote for Republicans.

05:05.76

Sam Shirazi

Maybe they didn't love that Donald Trump was a Republican nominee. They might might not have voted for Donald Trump for president in 2024, but for local offices or for state offices, they would be willing to vote for a Republican.

05:19.55

Sam Shirazi

So all that is to say, like when you see the Harris number, I wouldn't kind of fixate on it. The fact that Harris won a district doesn't automatically mean that the Democrats are going win it this year.

05:30.20

Sam Shirazi

And we saw that in twenty twenty three where there were a lot of districts that former President Biden won in 2020 that the Democrats weren't able to win. So just wanted to keep that in mind as we go through these districts.

05:43.64

Sam Shirazi

So let's do a deep dive into the most competitive districts. And I'll kind of go in the order of what I think is more competitive to least competitive. Although, you know, honestly, it's hard to tell right now in some of these districts, we don't necessarily know who the Democratic nominee is going to be yet.

06:01.04

Sam Shirazi

So I will start off and and I'm starting off with the seats currently held by Republicans. I will kind of briefly talk about a few Democratic held seats at the end, but I really do think most of the competitive seats are going to be on the Republican side and they're going to have a lot of defense to do, even though they're already in the minority.

06:20.01

Sam Shirazi

So let's begin with what I think is probably the most likely seat to flip in 2025. And that is House District 57 in Western Henrico and Eastern Goochland.

06:34.35

Sam Shirazi

And so the current incumbent is Republican David Owen. He won that seat in 2023 by about two points. And the thing that I think most people think, the reason why most people think that this is gonna be a pretty competitive seat is the fact that former Vice President Harris won the district by almost nine points.

06:59.14

Sam Shirazi

And so we're talking about Richmond suburbs, very quickly moving towards the Democrats. This was a district that used to be much more friendly to the Republicans, but every cycle is becoming more and more friendly to the Democrats to the point that the Democrats, you know, generally 2024 was not a great year, but in this district, Vice President Harris actually did better than President Biden in 2020. So she improved on President Biden's performance, even though she did four points worse in Virginia overall. So it just gives you a sense of how much more democratic the seat has become

07:32.63

Sam Shirazi

And a couple things to keep in mind. I just wanted to mention that in 2023, this district was the one where Susanna Gibson ran. And obviously there was a story that came out about her doing some online videos that were consensual with her husband that were meant to be private, but eventually...

07:51.67

Sam Shirazi

The recordings were made of them and they were released. And so obviously that was a big story. I think a lot of people kind of fixate on that story. And, you know, that's the reason the Democrats lost the seat.

08:02.43

Sam Shirazi

I think it's very hard to know. It ended up being a pretty close election. And, you know, you never know when something like that comes out, like, it could have been that the seat was going to be close regardless and and she may have lost some voters here but she gained other voters who were sympathetic to she was what she was going through. So long story short, I think there were a lot of structural issues with the district.

08:26.16

Sam Shirazi

The fact that part of the district is in eastern Goochland, which is a very republican area, it kind of outweighed the fact that most of the district in Henrico County was more democratic. So I think it was a it was going to be a tough seat for the Democrats to win in 2023. Now, having said that, I think the district has come, even in these two years, a long way particularly eastern Goochland. So Goochland County is like a really red county.

08:52.67

Sam Shirazi

in the Richmond suburbs, but every cycle it's becoming a little less Republican. And I think it's just gotten to the point where this cycle, if it's a good year for Democrats statewide, I mean, it's gonna be hard for the Republicans to hold this seat, particularly because if former Congresswoman Spanberger is the Democratic nominee. She comes from this area in Western Henrico, so you think she's going to be doing pretty well at the top of the ticket.

09:16.73

Sam Shirazi

And it's you know if if she carries the district by, let's say, five points, which is being you know pretty cautious, she's likely going to carry the district by more than five points. But even five points, it's hard to see ticket splitting to the extent that David Owen is going to be able to win the seat. So Anyways, long story short, I think that this district, House District of East 57, is the one that's most likely to flip.

09:41.46

Sam Shirazi

There are two Democrats currently running. We'll see who ends up winning the primary. I'll talk about that in a different episode. But I just wanted to know that there could be a Democratic primary in this district.

09:52.78

Sam Shirazi

so let's move on to the next district, which is also in the Richmond suburbs in Chesterfield and Hopewell, House District 75. The incumbent is Republican Carrie Conyer. And I think the Republicans feel that she's a pretty strong incumbent and has a good brand in the area. So they're hoping that she might be able to...

10:10.81

Sam Shirazi

Hold on to the seat, even though Vice President Harris won this seat by about six points in 2024. Conyer carried the district by six points when she ran in 2023. So you see how there was a lot of ticket splitting, probably a lot of decent amount of folks who came out and voted for Carrie Conyer in 2023.

10:30.24

Sam Shirazi

Some of them ended up voting for Vice President Harris. Obviously, Democrats strategy is to just get those people to become straight ticket Democratic voters. Carrie Conyers is going to hope that she can win some of those people back, even if they voted for Vice President Harris.

10:44.34

Sam Shirazi

The district's interesting. So it has a pretty sizable African-American population. It's about one third African-American. Obviously, Democrats need to get out those voters. That's the bulk of the Democratic base.

10:55.56

Sam Shirazi

I think the thing that that is interesting is there is also a pretty hefty suburban portion of the district. And those voters are really moving away from the Republicans and towards the Democrats, similar to House District 57.

11:10.30

Sam Shirazi

Another House District 75 is in the Richmond suburbs. And the question becomes, you know, are those voters just abandoning the Republicans in the state elections because they're frustrated by what's going on in D.C.? Or do they kind of make a difference and say, well, we may not like what President Trump's doing, but we like our local delegate.

11:30.01

Sam Shirazi

I mean, obviously the Republicans are hoping there'll be some ticket splitting and and people will who voted for Carrie Conyer in the past will vote for her again. Democrats are hoping people will just vote straight ticket.

11:40.79

Sam Shirazi

We'll see. We'll see what ends up happening. I did want to note there's also likely going to be a Democratic primary in this district, so we'll talk it about it at another podcast when I'm going over the House of Delegates primaries.

11:53.64

Sam Shirazi

Okay. Let's move on to a district that is in primarily Williamsburg area. So this is House District 71. seventy one So it's basically Williamsburg and some of the suburbs of Williamsburg.

12:08.87

Sam Shirazi

And in 2024, former Vice President Harris carried the district by about four and a half points. In 2023, the current incumbent Republican, Amanda Batten, won the district by about two points. And I think in 2023, that was a lot closer than people had expected.

12:27.78

Sam Shirazi

So Amanda Batten is another incumbent where the Republicans think that she has a good local brand and she's able to win some voters who might vote Democratic for president. She might be able to convince them to vote for her.

12:38.85

Sam Shirazi

But I think the fact that she only won by 2% 2020,

12:42.82

Sam Shirazi

2023 was interesting because that wasn't necessarily considered a top tier battleground in 2023. But obviously this year with the presidential number and also the 2023 number, House District 71 will be a top tier battleground.

12:56.29

Sam Shirazi

And the Democrat that lost in 2023, her name's Jessica Anderson. She's running again in 2025. twenty twenty five So, you know, Democrats, a lot of their base will be college students and other people in Williamsburg, who are kind of more of a college town type vibe area, that's who they need to get out.

13:17.14

Sam Shirazi

Amanda Batten, she's going to focus on the rural parts of the district, which are pretty red, and then she'll have to win over some of the suburban voters who may have voted for Vice President Harris, but she's going to hope that they're going to, even if they vote for former Congressman Spanberger, they might split their ticket. So again, a district where she's hoping there might be some ticket splitting and the Republicans are hoping that their incumbent, Amanda Batten, would it be able to win in this district.

13:43.19

Sam Shirazi

Okay, so we will move on to another district with an incumbent Republican. This is House District 82. So this is primarily based in Petersburg and some of the rural areas surrounding Petersburg.

13:56.09

Sam Shirazi

The incumbent is Kim Taylor. in 2021 then she was reelected in twenty twenty one and then she was reelected in 2023, in a very close election, she won by just 78 votes after a recount.

14:12.06

Sam Shirazi

And the Democrat who ran against her in 2023, Kimberly Pope Adams, is running again in 2025. twenty twenty five So another race where we're seeing a rematch.

14:23.70

Sam Shirazi

You'll notice that a few of these races, there's rematches from 2025, and there's not going to be a primary in either this district or the 71st district. So House District 82, Vice President Harris won it by about 4%.

14:39.47

Sam Shirazi

And the dynamics of this district are interesting. So you have Petersburg, which is known to be a a area with more African American voters. So that's the base of the Democratic Party in this district.

14:51.92

Sam Shirazi

And then the rural areas surrounding Petersburg, are much more working class white voters, which is more of the base of the Republican Party. So you you really kind of see this dynamic where it's it depends on which party is able to turn out their voters.

15:03.83

Sam Shirazi

I think the Republicans are feeling okay about this district because one, they think Kim Taylor is a pretty strong incumbent. And then two, this district, unlike some of most of the other districts we're going to be talking about, has been moving towards the Republicans. So that Republicans are gaining with white working class voters and they're making you know marginal gains, I would say with African American voters. So they, and this is a more working class district. So I think the Republicans feel this is the type of district we can win in the Trump era. It's not some of these,

15:31.72

Sam Shirazi

suburban districts that are really more well off that the Democrats are doing well in. This is more of a traditional working class district. I think we'll just have to see which party is able to turn out their voters.

15:45.89

Sam Shirazi

I guess the one thing I should note about this district is that there are a decent amount of military installations in and around the district. So I think The fact that some of the workers might be in the district might be affected.

15:59.76

Sam Shirazi

That's something that the Democrats would be able to use. And we'll see if Kimberly Pope Adams is able to win this time in this district with a rematch against Kim Taylor. Okay, let's move on to House District 89. This is in Hampton Roads based in Suffolk and Chesapeake.

16:17.99

Sam Shirazi

This is one of the few districts where a Republican is retiring. So incumbent Republican delegate Baxter Ennis is retiring. He won by 2% in 2023, but the Vice President Harris, former Vice President Harris, was able to win the district in 2024 by about three points.

16:35.65

Sam Shirazi

So again, type of district that's a little bit more working class, has a decent African-American population. There are a few Democrats running, so we'll see if there's a primary and who might win the primary.

16:46.58

Sam Shirazi

And there's also likely going to be a primary on the Republican side, so we can talk about those dynamics in another episode. but Again, it just depends how much of a swing there is against the Republicans based on some of the changes to the federal government and Hampton Roads area, military, they're going to be affected by some of the changes that are going on in D.C. So another district that I think is going to be interesting to watch how things shake out there.

17:14.61

Sam Shirazi

Okay, so all the districts I've talked about so far, I would say those are probably the top, top tier battlegrounds. Not to say that there aren't other districts that are going to be competitive and are going to be battlegrounds and and that could flip, but those are the real top ones.

17:29.48

Sam Shirazi

The next districts I'm going to talk about are more reach districts. And it a lot depends on who the candidates are and how much the parties end up investing in these races. So I will start with House District 86.

17:44.83

Sam Shirazi

So this is in Hampton and Pocosin in Hampton Roads. The current delegate is Republican A.C. Cardoza, and he won by a lot in 2023. He won by almost 13%, but there was a big swing in 2024. Democrats carried this district by about one point, or former Vice President Harris carried the district by about one point.

18:06.90

Sam Shirazi

And part of the difference in those numbers is because the district has a decent African-American population, I think, There was more turnout in a presidential year, and that helped the Democrats in this district in 2024. AC Cardozo also benefited in 2023 by the fact there was a really competitive state Senate seat in part of the district. And so that turn that led to a lot of Republican turnout.

18:30.33

Sam Shirazi

So just keep that in mind. I don't know how competitive this will be. It really just depends on... One, can Democrats turn out African-American voters in this district? And two, is there any sort of backlash to some of the changes to the federal government? And do we see that in Hampton Roads? So we'll see how competitive this race is.

18:50.20

Sam Shirazi

i did want to talk about another district in the Richmond suburbs. So this is House District 73. This is in Chesterfield. And I think a lot of people were surprised by this district specifically because it really...

19:05.49

Sam Shirazi

Most people did not expect the Democrats to carry this district in 2024. So former Vice President Harris won this district by one point. And that was after in 2023, the current incumbent Republican, Mark Early, won the district by 9% in 2023. So again, we're seeing we're seeing a big swing.

19:23.25

Sam Shirazi

Why? Because Chesterfield is a suburban district and it's just moving towards the Democrats.

19:29.65

Sam Shirazi

It used to be known as known as one of the most Republican counties in Virginia, But in the Trump era has become more democratic.

19:37.36

Sam Shirazi

And this part of Chesterfield, you have more upper income people, college educated voters, they're really swinging towards the Democrats.

19:50.28

Sam Shirazi

Okay, so speaking of suburban districts that have traditionally been Republican, I wanted to talk about House District 64. That is in Middle Stafford County, and this is the first Northern Virginia seat that we're going to be talking about.

20:03.95

Sam Shirazi

The current Republican delegate is Paul Milde, and he won in 2023 by 9%.

20:10.56

Sam Shirazi

In 2024, it was much closer and President Trump won the district by around 2%.

20:15.60

Sam Shirazi

So the reason i I want to talk about this district is Northern Virginia. So if you think about Northern Virginia, that is kind of the epicenter of where a lot of the federal fallout is happening and a lot of federal workers are are affected. And this district in Middle Stafford likely, and don't know the exact numbers, but imagine has a decent amount of federal workers.

20:34.65

Sam Shirazi

So this is a type of district that if we're seeing a big backlash to what's going on in D.C., Even though it's traditionally a Republican district, I think could be in play. And it's really one of those districts to keep an eye on if there's going to be a backlash to what the Republicans are doing in D.C.

20:53.58

Sam Shirazi

All right. I know I'm going through a lot of districts. I will go through the last ones a little bit more quickly just because I think it's not as clear how competitive these are going to be. I think a lot really just depends how big of a backlash there'll be to what's going on in D.C. So I'll talk about a couple Northern Virginia seats.

21:11.68

Sam Shirazi

So there's House District 30. This is in Western Loudoun and Western Falk here. The incumbent Republican delegate is Gary Higgins. He was elected in 2023. The 2024 margin was about Trump plus one.

21:27.99

Sam Shirazi

And this is more of a traditionally Republican part of Loudoun County. But again, Loudoun, Northern Virginia, lot of federal workers. If you're seeing a backlash, this is the type of place where there could be a backlash.

21:40.18

Sam Shirazi

And so we'll just have to wait and see how big of an of a backlash is there to what's going on in D.C. And, you know, as I mentioned, that the title of this podcast is Federal Fallout.

21:50.68

Sam Shirazi

And I think a lot of these districts will will have to see basically how big the federal fallout is to what's going on in D.C.

21:59.76

Sam Shirazi

The last thing I should mention about this district is the Democrat running. His name's John McAuliffe. I don't think he's going to face a primary. He's raised a decent amount of money. And I think if he's able to kind of mobilize voters in Western Loudoun who are maybe affected by what's going on in D.C., he'll have a decent shot in this district, even though it's traditionally been more of a Republican district.

22:22.73

Sam Shirazi

All right. So stick with me. We got another Northern Virginia seat. This is House District 22. And this is in middle Prince William County, which is one of the few remaining, and I would say, traditionally Republican areas of Northern Virginia.

22:37.63

Sam Shirazi

The current delegate is Ian Lovejoy. He won in 2023 by about five and a half points. But the 2024 margin roughly... was roughly Harris plus one.

22:50.38

Sam Shirazi

And so I think this is a type of district that on a kind of good night, again, Democrats would be able to flip. Really depends on are the Republicans having a tough night with what's going on in D.C.? Are federal workers fed up? Are they coming out?

23:07.14

Sam Shirazi

And the one thing to keep in mind with this district is you have former delegate Elizabeth Guzman. She ran for state Senate. And then last year she ran for Congress and she came up short in both those efforts at the primary.

23:22.09

Sam Shirazi

But she's trying to make a comeback and try to win this district that is fairly diverse and has a decent Hispanic population. So we'll see how that goes. Having said that, again, it is a more traditional Republican district.

23:33.66

Sam Shirazi

So I wouldn't assume it's necessarily going to flip, but I do think type of district, if there's a blue wave, could flip in November. Okay, two more Republican districts, then we'll talk about a few Democratic districts.

23:48.34

Sam Shirazi

I wanted to talk about House District 66. This is in Spotsylvania, just south of Fredericksburg. You have Republican Delegate Bobby Oroch. He was elected in 2023 with 11 half However,

24:05.75

Sam Shirazi

however President Trump only won the district by about 2% in 2024. twenty twenty four So you're seeing that this is a district that is traditionally Republican, maybe on for the state elections voted Republican, but for whatever reason, the federal elections is more Democratic and President Trump isn't as popular in this type of district, particularly because there probably are so some federal workers here that are also affected by what's going on. And the Democrats have Nicole Cole, who is a on the Spotsylvania school board. So I think she's an elected official and and would bring her previous experience to the to the campaign trail. So think it could be competitive.

24:48.04

Sam Shirazi

A lot of these districts, it's really hard right now to know because we don't quite have all the information about where the parties are spending their money. I think that's one thing to look at is our party spending here.

25:00.60

Sam Shirazi

and are they allocating their resources to this district versus the other district? you know I know I've talked to about a lot of these districts. A lot also depends on how much of a backlash there is to what's going on in DC. you'll You'll hear me saying it as kind of a broken record, but it really is true because so many of these districts are dependent on federal government for jobs and spending.

25:22.72

Sam Shirazi

Okay, last district that's a Republican held one and is a different district, different part of Virginia. It is House District 41 that's based in Blacksburg and some rural parts of Southwest Virginia. It's really the only competitive seat in Southwest Virginia.

25:39.10

Sam Shirazi

The current delegate is Chris Obenshain. He was elected in 2023 by about one point, a very close race where he defeated Democrat Lily Franklin by 183 votes.

25:53.58

Sam Shirazi

But Lily Franklin is back this time and she is seeking a rematch. The district is about it's kind of this strange district because you have the college town of Blacksburg, which is pretty Democratic, and then you have these rural red areas.

26:06.80

Sam Shirazi

And so President Trump actually carried the district in 2024. But I would caution a little bit. 2024 was a little bit weird in that Republicans did better than expected with young people. And it's unclear if they're going to be able to keep doing that.

26:20.82

Sam Shirazi

So I think if there's a backlash among young voters, this is the type of district that's going to be put into play. And then the other thing I should mention, both with this district and the Williamsburg district, is that there are lot of college students in these districts. And oftentimes they're not super engaged in politics. They may be aware there's a governor's race.

26:40.17

Sam Shirazi

And the thing with Virginia is it has same-day voter registration. So even if a voter doesn't meet the voter registration deadline, they can go down to their local precinct.

26:50.50

Sam Shirazi

They can fill out a voter registration form. It will be a provisional ballot, so it doesn't automatically get counted. the registrar would review the voter registration. If the person is eligible to be a voter,

27:05.99

Sam Shirazi

Then the voter's ballot will be counted. And we saw that in 2023 where Lily Franklin was able to turn out a lot of students. A lot of them use same day registration. It wasn't quite enough for her to win in 2023, but it was a very close race. And I think a lot of people were surprised by the margin.

27:23.50

Sam Shirazi

And Lily Franklin did better in 2023 than most people expected. And I think that's why in 2025, even though this is a Trump district, it's going to get a lot of attention because if she's able to get, if Lily Franklin is able to get students to come out and vote, this is the type of district that could flip. So As you can see, we've talked a lot about Republican districts. I think realistically, those are go the seats that are going to be most in play this year. And the Republicans are in a tough spot because they have a lot of incumbents. They have a lot of incumbents they have to defend.

27:54.20

Sam Shirazi

They have a lot of Republicans in areas where there are a lot of federal jobs and are dependent on federal spending. And so if there's a backlash, like those those Republicans may be feeling the heat in November.

28:04.37

Sam Shirazi

Having said all that, I don't think it's necessarily impossible for... the Republicans to win a majority. I think it's going to be difficult, but I don't think it's impossible. There are a few seats in play if the Republicans have a good night, where if they have if they're able to flip two seats, they'll be able to get a majority.

28:23.94

Sam Shirazi

So I'll talk first about House District 21. This is in Western Prince William County. The incumbent is Josh Thomas. And I think This is the seat that probably the Republicans have the best shot at flipping.

28:39.02

Sam Shirazi

And Josh Thomas in 2023, he was able to win in the closest race by a Democrat. He won by, but it was still a three and a half point win in 2023. And then former Vice President Harris won the district by about five and a half points.

28:53.59

Sam Shirazi

I think why the Republicans feel they might have a shot here is this is, it's a kind of a combination district where there's some suburban, more well-off voters, and then there's working class and also Hispanic areas. And I think the Republicans feel like they're doing better in the working class Hispanic areas.

29:08.92

Sam Shirazi

And, you know, in theory, they might be able to flip the seat. I think the issue for the Republicans is Josh Thomas is pretty strong incumbent. And then obviously, Western Prince William County in Northern Virginia. A lot of workers affected by what's going on in DC.

29:21.92

Sam Shirazi

So I don't know how much momentum the Republicans are going to have in a district like this to try to come in and flip it. Similar story with House District 65. This is in Fredericksburg.

29:32.82

Sam Shirazi

the Incumbent is Delegate Josh Cole. He won by 6% in 2023. Former Vice President Harris won the district by almost nine points 2024.

29:45.42

Sam Shirazi

Pretty tough numbers for the Republicans. Again, Northern Virginia, federal workers, and Fredericksburg is also a college town. So I think all those things make this a difficult seat for the Republicans to try to come in and flip.

29:56.32

Sam Shirazi

Last district I will talk about, thanks for everyone who's cook gone through all these districts with me, is House District 97. That is in Virginia Beach. The incumbent is democrat Democratic Delegate Michael Fegans. He won by about 5% in 2023.

30:13.04

Sam Shirazi

Former Vice President Harris won the district by about 8% in 2024. And if you think about it, Virginia Beach, sometimes the Republicans are able to win these difficult seats because turnout might not be there or because they're able to convince voters because Virginia Beach is more of an area that sees swings between elections. I think the problem, again, for the Republicans is that Virginia Beach, military-dependent district, federal A lot of federal employees, federal dollars in this district. So again, I just think where the Republicans have to win this year are tough districts where they're just impacted by what's going on with the federal government.

30:50.74

Sam Shirazi

So I don't want to say it's impossible for the Republicans to win a majority, but I do think right now it is a a pretty steep hill for them to climb. And as you as you saw, most of the districts I talked about have Republican incumbents.

31:05.19

Sam Shirazi

And realistically, you know one strategy Republicans could could say to themselves is, we have a lot of incumbents. The incumbents are going to expect to get support from the party. And we should just focus on protecting our incumbents and possibly minimizing our losses so that next election, we will have a chance to win back the House of Delegates. Because I mean, it's very early. It's hard to know what's going to happen. But I think one of the dangers for the Republicans is if there's a big wave, Democrats pick up a lot of seats.

31:36.06

Sam Shirazi

you know Once you get into a hole in the House of Delegates, it might be hard hard to dig out of that hole. It might take a few cycles. And I think Republicans don't want to be in that position where there they're in a pretty big hole in the House of Delegates.

31:48.65

Sam Shirazi

And the reason I'm sounding a little bit more optimistic for the Democrats is because on Tuesday of this week, there was a special election in Pennsylvania for a state Senate seat, and the Democrats were able to flip that seat. And that was a pretty Republican district.

32:08.22

Sam Shirazi

I think President Trump won the district by about 15 points in 2024. Now, special elections are always weird, but I mean, when you're seeing Democrats flip seats like that, I think that should give Republicans some warning signs.

32:21.96

Sam Shirazi

I think another warning sign for the Republicans was that the nomination of Elise Stefanik to be ambassador to UN was pulled. So Elise Stefanik, she's a house member from New York.

32:34.95

Sam Shirazi

She was nominated to be UN n ambassador, but the Republicans started getting a little nervous about the special election for her house seat in New York. So they pulled the nomination, which is pretty drastic thing to do. And they wouldn't have done it unless there was a reason to do it. And so I think,

32:52.25

Sam Shirazi

you know If national Republicans are looking at that environment and getting nervous, you know obviously Virginia Republicans shouldn't be super comfortable because Virginia is much more impacted by what's going on at the federal government.

33:03.83

Sam Shirazi

Having said all that, on the next podcast, I do want to talk about something that's going to important that's going to happen this upcoming Tuesday in Wisconsin. Wisconsin will have a Supreme Court race. And oftentimes these races become very polarized and the national parties come in.

33:18.72

Sam Shirazi

The Wisconsin race, Elon Musk is spending money through his PAC. So I think it's basically going to be a a little bit of an early preview of what might happen in Virginia later on this year.

33:31.09

Sam Shirazi

And I think both sides are really going to be looking at this Wisconsin Supreme Court race to see what the political temperature is right now. So there's a lot going on. I'm going to try to do my best to cover it.

33:42.03

Sam Shirazi

I think keep an eye out for Tuesday with the Wisconsin Supreme Court race. Who knows if the Republicans do well? Maybe I'll have to revise some of my thoughts on the House of Delegates. But right now, I would say Democrats are looking pretty good to keep their majority and possibly gain some seats.

33:59.63

Sam Shirazi

Having said that, it's not impossible for the Republicans to get a majority, but I do think it's going to be a pretty uphill climb for them to do that this year. so That's the Virginia House of Delegates. I tried to do my best to quickly go over the races. I will do more podcasts on the primaries for the House of Delegates, and I'm sure we'll talk more about the Virginia House Delegates later this year.

34:18.96

Sam Shirazi

So for now, that's it for Federal Fallout. Thank you for listening, and I will see you next week.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit samshirazi.substack.com

00:01.55

Sam Shirazi

Hi everyone, I'm Sam Shirazi and this is Federal Fallout, the 2025 Virginia Elections. This is a bonus episode that we'll be looking at a new poll about Doge and also how Virginia politicians on both sides of the aisle are dealing with the issue right now.

00:20.47

Sam Shirazi

So, I should guess I should first start that sometimes I will do these bonus episodes if there's something that is interesting that's in the news, that's topical, might not require a full podcast, but I wanted to just give my thoughts on something that I saw and have a little bit of a shorter version of that. I will do a bonus episode.

00:40.07

Sam Shirazi

And so I noticed this Fox News poll that came out and it was a national poll about different things, including President Trump's approval, but it had some specific questions about Doge and the actions that it had been taking. And I thought it'd be interesting to try to extrapolate what it means for Virginia. So this is a national poll and former Vice President Harris won Virginia by six points. So you would think that Virginia generally is a little bit more

01:12.31

Sam Shirazi

Democratic leaning than the rest of the country. So that's one thing to keep in mind when you you see these numbers. And the other thing, I think sometimes Democrats are a little bit skeptical of Fox News polls, because obviously Fox News generally tends to lean towards the right.

01:27.68

Sam Shirazi

However, I find that their polls are often pretty accurate and generally they have a pretty good reputation in the polling industry. And I think in 2024 they were generally in the ballpark. So I tend to pay attention to Fox News polls and don't really worry about the fact that it comes from Fox News.

01:44.89

Sam Shirazi

So in terms of DOGE, this national poll that found that 51% opposed reducing the federal workforce, 65% are concerned not enough planning has gone into spending cuts,

01:59.89

Sam Shirazi

And Elon Musk's job performance at Doge is 40% approved, 58% disapproved. And again, these are national numbers. So that seems a little bit, if you extrapolate out to Virginia being a more democratic state, and also the fact that Virginia is being hit hard by some of the federal job cuts, you would think that those numbers are even more drastic in Virginia.

02:21.92

Sam Shirazi

And so I think the poll is interesting because it gives us a sense that the electorate while they generally want efficiencies in the government, I think there's also a sense that they want these efficiencies to be brought through an efficient process and not necessarily the sledgehammer or chainsaw approach that has been taken and more of a scalpel approach is probably what the electorate is looking for.

02:48.06

Sam Shirazi

And I would say generally job cuts and layoffs are not super popular with the broader electorate, particularly when There are other options that have worked in the past, such as hiring freezes where just natural attrition will lead to a lower federal workforce. I think the way the job cuts have gone about, sometimes they've been done on a mass scale and also sometimes there hasn't been a lot of warning given to the workers. And I think generally in the news, the reception has not been great to that in terms of different people when they they look look at the news.

03:26.40

Sam Shirazi

So what does this all this mean for Virginia? I think the Republicans are in a difficult position because if you think about it, President Trump's the leader of their party. He's pretty popular among the Republican base.

03:38.06

Sam Shirazi

They really can't distance themselves from President Trump in this area. And so they have to kind of walk this fine line of supporting President Trump.

03:49.39

Sam Shirazi

While at the same time, they probably most Republicans in Virginia understand that these are not super popular among the wider electorate and that Virginia is being a Democratic leaning state.

04:00.09

Sam Shirazi

They'll need to try to win over independent voters to win the election this year. And so they they have a very complicated task ahead of them trying to navigate this. And Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin put some statements out there this week about what's going on. And I'll just read to you what he said.

04:19.81

Sam Shirazi

He said, quote, striving to gain efficiencies and reduce costs in the federal government is at the heart of regaining our fiscal responsibility as a nation. And I recognize that what comes with this is dislocation.

04:34.48

Sam Shirazi

End quote. So, and I think, obviously, Glenn Youngkin comes from the corporate world. He used to be a CEO. And I think the term dislocation is interesting because that's basically corporate talk for layoffs, firings, unemployment.

04:48.96

Sam Shirazi

And so, obviously, he's trying to put a spin on it, saying that the dislocations, in his words, are required. I did find it interesting that when... Governor Yonkin made those statements. It was at a bill signing ceremony for a number of bills that were passed by the General Assembly.

05:05.57

Sam Shirazi

And Lieutenant Governor Winston Sears was there as well. And obviously, Lieutenant Governor Sears is running for governor. And so you see this kind of...

05:16.51

Sam Shirazi

statements that Governor Yunkin has to put out to try to walk that fine line of supporting the cuts that are being made to the federal government. At the same time, I think he's trying not to be overly harsh or or celebratory in the fact that people are getting fired, which sometimes you see maybe on more pro-Mega accounts that people are you know more gleeful that people that federal employees are getting fired. I think Governor Youngkin doesn't want to take that tone.

05:44.87

Sam Shirazi

He's viewing it more as kind of a cold business calculation. But I don't think that's a whole lot of comfort for Virginians who are losing their jobs or who are scared of about losing their jobs.

05:55.75

Sam Shirazi

And so i think the Republicans are in a difficult position this year in Virginia having to deal with this issue. On the flip side, obviously, the Democrats are going to exploit this issue as much as they can because it affects a lot of Virginians.

06:13.30

Sam Shirazi

And it's also something that is more of an economic issue that I think the Democrats feel that they can win back that issue. And if you think about 2024, obviously,

06:25.29

Sam Shirazi

economy was on top of mind for a lot of voters. And even though the federal government changes and the firing of certain federal workers in the grand scheme of things may not be affecting as many Virginians as other economic issues, I think the news is still out there. And so if you're not super political you're not super attuned to all this stuff you're still seeing news about layoffs and generally people don't want to see news about layoffs in the news and they might not know how widespread the layoffs are or if it's going to come to the private sector and so i think in that sense the democrats have an opportunity to really exploit this issue for lack of a better word and you saw that with likely democratic nominee

07:09.68

Sam Shirazi

former Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger, she said, Virginians deserve leaders who create, not attack jobs in the Commonwealth, and they deserve a governor who's willing to stand up to the president to protect Virginia's economy and the families that rely on these jobs. So,

07:27.76

Sam Shirazi

Obviously, she's taking a pretty clear message there where she is supporting pushing back on these job cuts, and it's not something that she would ever endorse.

07:39.15

Sam Shirazi

And I think that creates a real clear distinction between the parties. And I think the Republicans are going to have to figure out what their message is on this. And if if you look at what might be coming down the pipeline for the Republicans, so i I've said this before, we don't know if there's going to be a Republican primary for the governor's race. April 3rd is the filing deadline and two candidates, former Delegate Dave O'Rock,

08:05.18

Sam Shirazi

and former state senator Amanda Chase are attempting to get the 10,000 signatures required to get on the ballot. And obviously we'll see if they're able to get on the ballot. But if there is a primary, and that's gonna be driving Lieutenant Governor Sears more towards the camp of endorsing or at least not pushing back against these cots. And one of the candidates O' Former delegate Dave LaRock has come out full throat in support of what Doge is doing and he has gone a step further and pro proposed to the creation of a Virginia State, state equivalent David O' Doge. so

08:41.10

Sam Shirazi

presumably if he ends up being governor, he would create the Virginia Doge that would go in and look at ways David O' Doing similar things to the state government.

08:52.06

Sam Shirazi

that DOGE has been doing to the federal government. Now, obviously, that may have support among the base of the Republican Party. i think that will be a much harder sell to the electorate, generally, given there's already cuts at the federal level. i'm not sure there's a huge stomach for cuts at the state level.

09:10.34

Sam Shirazi

And so there's a lot going on with with these, I will say, here in Northern Virginia, so I live in Arlington, it is a big issue. There's a lot of people who are affected either directly or indirectly by it. and It's something you'll see on the local news, on the local social media.

09:26.38

Sam Shirazi

And it's hard to kind of get away from it if you're in Northern Virginia. And I suspect that's true in other parts of Virginia, maybe somewhere like Hampton Roads, where there's also a lot of federal jobs. and And Hampton Roads is more of a military area.

09:42.39

Sam Shirazi

But there have been reports that the Department of Defense will also be cutting its civilian employee staff. It's unclear if that's going to be through firings or maybe just attrition during a hiring freeze, but that will also impact Hampton Roads.

09:58.19

Sam Shirazi

It's possible parts of Virginia, Southwest Virginia, Southside Virginia may support or generally may be more supportive of these cuts, but One thing to keep in mind is federal employees are everywhere, so it's not just Northern Virginia. In some of these areas, the federal government might be a large employer, and so the cuts, even if they aren't huge in number in certain parts of Virginia,

10:23.04

Sam Shirazi

That could be actually a big deal if, for example, there's a VA facility that is seeing some cuts because it's a smaller community and it's a fair amount of jobs in that community. So I think the politics of this is earth are tricky for the Republicans because they have to do their rest and and stand behind President Trump.

10:42.04

Sam Shirazi

But they, at the same time, are facing a lot of negative headlines in the news about the the job cuts. And I think one thing that was interesting in the Fox news poll is president Trump's approval nationally. What's almost even, I think it was slightly something like 51 49 negative approval.

11:03.25

Sam Shirazi

But as I mentioned, the, Popularity of Elon Musk and his actions with Doge are less popular than President Trump. And so the Republicans are in this tough spot where they have to support President Trump because he's generally popular with the Republican Party.

11:18.27

Sam Shirazi

But then you have someone like Doge and Elon Musk who are less popular with the general population. And so they have to walk this line where they're supporting President Trump.

11:27.88

Sam Shirazi

And so this issue, obviously, this podcast is called Federal Fallout. I think most of the premise of the podcast has been that the job job cuts in Virginia are going to have a toll on the Republicans this year.

11:40.68

Sam Shirazi

could Could not happen, but I think most people are assuming The more this issue continues, the more it's in the news, the more job cuts there are the better it is going to be for the Democrats this year in Virginia.

11:52.49

Sam Shirazi

There is a possibility in theory that Who knows? Perhaps the whole project kind of loses steam. The job cuts aren't really there anymore.

12:03.01

Sam Shirazi

And it isn't as big of an issue come November as it is right now. That's a possibility. i think we'll just have to wait and see. But it seems like it's still going to be around.

12:15.39

Sam Shirazi

for the rest of the year. And I think we're just going to have to see how much of an impact ends up having on this year's Virginia elections. So I just wanted to give a quick rundown of that Fox News poll. I'm not going to try to obsess too much over polls. We'll probably get more Virginia polls. And if I see any interesting ones, I will talk about it on the podcast.

12:36.83

Sam Shirazi

I don't intend to always be doing podcast specifically about one poll. This one was more to just kind of touch base about where things are in terms of the popularity of Doge, and then also the impact it's having on the Virginia governor's election.

12:50.67

Sam Shirazi

And if there are other polls did i that come out that either talk about the Virginia election specifically or about some of these issues generally in terms of Doge, I will cover them.

13:01.76

Sam Shirazi

But for now, that is it for this bonus episode of Federal Fallout, and I hope you join us next time.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit samshirazi.substack.com

Transcript

00:01.13

Sam Shirazi

Hi everyone, I'm Sam Shirazi and this is Federal Fallout the 2025 Virginia Elections. This episode will focus on the Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General races, both the primaries and the general election.

00:13.91

Sam Shirazi

Who's running and what the races could look like. First up, the Lieutenant Governor's race. Both parties will have primaries and we'll start off with the Democratic primary.

00:24.86

Sam Shirazi

But first, I wanted to give you you a brief overview of what the Lieutenant Governor does and why it's important.

00:32.21

Sam Shirazi

So the Lieutenant Governor, if something happens to the governor, will step in and act in that role. So obviously that's important. It's analogous to the vice president in the federal government.

00:45.95

Sam Shirazi

But there's another role for the Lieutenant Governor. The lieutenant governor is the presiding officer of the Virginia Senate. So just like the vice president provide presides over the U.S. Senate, the the lieutenant governor has that role in the Virginia Senate.

01:02.06

Sam Shirazi

And the lieutenant governor has the ability to break ties, just like the vice president has the ability to break ties in the Virginia Senate has 40 members. Currently, there's a 21-19 majority.

01:14.25

Sam Shirazi

And the Virginia State Senate is not up for election in 2025. It will be up for election in 2027. But I think it's important that the party that controls the tie-breaking vote, it obviously gives them a little bit of an advantage if there's ever a tie. And with majority,

01:34.22

Sam Shirazi

Democratic majority, there is the possibility that there could be ties. So I think Lieutenant Governor's race is important in that regard. And there are a lot of Democrats running on the Democratic side. So I will just first off go through each candidate and then we'll talk a little bit about the dynamics of the primary.

01:51.98

Sam Shirazi

So in alphabetical order, the people who are currently running, there is Alex Bastani, he is a lawyer and a former union official. There's Carl Eggleston, he is a businessman.

02:05.78

Sam Shirazi

There is State Senator Ghazala Hashmi.

02:09.62

Sam Shirazi

There is the Prince William County School Board Chair, Babur Lateef. There is state Senator Aaron Rouse. There is former DOJ attorney Victor Salgado.

02:22.15

Sam Shirazi

And finally, routing it out for the Democrats, there is former Richmond Mayor LeVar Stoney. So as you can see, there are a lot of people running. And I think it's hard for me to pick who would be a favorite at this point because of all the people running. And I don't think there's a clear front runner.

02:39.07

Sam Shirazi

And one thing to keep in mind when there are that many people running is Virginia doesn't have ranked choice voting or anything like that. So the person who gets the most votes will win, even if that means the winner only gets one third of the total votes.

02:52.49

Sam Shirazi

That person will end up winning because you don't need a majority and there's not not any sort of ranked choice voting or runoff or anything like that. And I think with all these people running, this is somewhat similar to the 2021 Democratic lieutenant governor primary.

03:07.68

Sam Shirazi

In that race, there were there were a number of Democrats running. At the end, it kind of became a two-way contest between Hala Ayala and Sam Rasoul, and Ayala was able to win with little over 37% of the vote. So I think we could see something similar this time where the winner gets less than 50% of the vote, and I think that's pretty likely given all the candidates.

03:29.63

Sam Shirazi

And you know I think they all have their strengths and weaknesses. I think they they all come from different communities within Virginia. And I think that's going to be a little bit of the dynamic in the race is which candidates can bring out their supporters, both geographically and from the communities they they come from. So for example, Aaron Rouse comes from Hampton Roads. He's the main candidate from Hampton Roads. I think he's going to have...

03:56.08

Sam Shirazi

an advantage there and that'll be an area where he can kind of run up the vote but that's not the entire primary that's one part of Virginia there's obviously other parts so I don't think he can just win off of Hampton Roads similarly LeVar Stoney was a former Richmond mayor So you would think he might have more support in the Richmond area.

04:15.46

Sam Shirazi

But then State Senator Ghazala Hashmi also comes from the Richmond area. She's in the Richmond suburb of Chesterfield. You have Barbara Lateef, who is from Northern Virginia, and Prince William County is the second biggest county in Virginia. So he obviously has a lot of people who have voted for him before there. And then you have maybe the other candidates like Alex Bistani might be trying to get support from the labor movement. You have Victor Salgado maybe trying to get support from the Hispanic community.

04:47.12

Sam Shirazi

And so, know, you have a lot of different parts of Virginia at play, lot of different candidates. Oftentimes, you last minute endorsements and or money can help sway things. So if any of these candidates gets a big endorsement at the last minute,

05:02.71

Sam Shirazi

for example, from a member of Congress or from a major organization gives them a lot of money so they'll start to run ads, I think that could make a difference. But right now, it's very hard for me to kind of pick who is going to win. And obviously, there's still a lot of time before, not a lot of time, but there's still a decent amount of time before the primary. And a lot of voters aren't going to be super tuned in right now to the lieutenant governor primary.

05:29.81

Sam Shirazi

But I do think people will start to get more engaged and we might have a little bit of better sense of who has more of an advantage on the Democratic side. Now, let's focus on the Republicans. So the Republicans will also have a primary for Lieutenant Governor.

05:48.17

Sam Shirazi

The field is a little bit smaller, so there aren't as many people running. There is businessman John Curran, Fairfax County Supervisor Pat Harrety,

06:02.48

Sam Shirazi

And then there is radio personality, John Reid. And so this has a little bit of a different dynamic where you can kind of see the lanes of each candidate. And I would say he's kind of more of a traditional Republican primary. So you have Pat Herity, who is the on the Fairfax County Board. He's one of the few Republican officials left in Northern Virginia. And I think that's one of the selling points is that he's been able to win tough elections in Northern Virginia.

06:26.22

Sam Shirazi

I would say he's probably a slight front runner at this point because he's he's more of the establishment favorite for lack of a better word, because I think he, that he has an image of being more electable and you have a familiar dynamic in the Republican primary where John Reid could try to come in as a little bit of a outsider trying to bring more of a, you know, non-politician type vibe with him. And that often works in Republican primaries. So he might be able to pull that off.

06:58.14

Sam Shirazi

And then you have John Curran who, has donated his campaign about a million dollars. So he has a fair amount of money to work with. And so we'll see where're how far that takes him. So it's going to be interesting. If I had to guess, I mean, I'm guessing Herity is going to do well in Fairfax County, which is obviously the largest county in Virginia. It's become more Democratic, so it's unclear how many Republicans are actually going to vote in.

07:22.84

Sam Shirazi

the Republican primary, but he will get a lot of support from Fairfax County. And the question mark becomes how much support does he get in the rest of Virginia?

07:35.18

Sam Shirazi

particularly more conservative parts of Virginia, like Southwest Virginia. and again, this race, it's a little bit depends on who gets endorsements. Does Governor Youngkin wade into this race? We'll see. it's It's a little bit hard to tell.

07:48.41

Sam Shirazi

And I guess one thing I should have mentioned earlier about these primaries is any voter in Virginia can pick which primary they want to vote for. So Virginia does not have party registration for voter registration. So Basically, anyone can pick up either ballot on primary day or during early voting. Obviously, you can only vote in one of the two primaries, but that'll be interesting to see. Usually, there isn't a lot of crossover options.

08:14.04

Sam Shirazi

Typically, Democrats vote in the Democratic primary, Republicans vote in the Republican primary, but it will be interesting to see how many independents end up voting in these primaries. And it's possible that independents, if it's going to be more of a Democratic leaning year, will decide to vote in the Democratic primary, either because they're leaning that way or they think that candidates on the Democratic side are more likely to win.

08:38.34

Sam Shirazi

It's probably hard to right now have an idea of who's the front runner on either side. I would say on the Republican side, probably Pat Haratey has a little bit of an edge, but definitely could see John Reid as well coming up and pulling an upset.

08:53.95

Sam Shirazi

as often happens with Republicans, with outsiders being able to come in. I do think the Democrats, it's a lot more wide open, and it's hard for me to really be able to pick who's ahead right now.

09:05.83

Sam Shirazi

I did want to just quickly pivot to the general election. Obviously, we don't know who candidates are on either side, but what a lieutenant governor's race will look like in the general election, I think it's going to be interesting because Typically, nowadays, people just vote straight ticket.

09:23.84

Sam Shirazi

And in the last four Virginia elections, the party that won the governor's race has also won the lieutenant governor's race and the attorney general's race. You have to go all the way back to 2005.

09:35.84

Sam Shirazi

Tim Kaine was elected governor, and then you had a Republican lieutenant governor who was elected. And back then, there was more ticket splitting. i think nowadays, it's very hard for people to really...

09:49.22

Sam Shirazi

split their ticket that much for whatever reason people are becoming more polarized they just vote for one party down the ticket and realistically I think whoever wins the governor's race.

09:59.89

Sam Shirazi

there's a good chance that that purse that party is going to win the lieutenant governor's race unless it's really close, but I think if it's you know.

10:13.96

Sam Shirazi

well also win for the same party that won the governor's race i will say i think republicans have a little bit of hope that if pat harty is the nominee he can run ahead of the top of the ticket, particularly in Fairfax County. So just to give you a little background, his dad was also on the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors.

10:34.27

Sam Shirazi

he The Herity name is has a long history in Fairfax. So I think there's a sense that you know maybe that can win some crossover support from people who might vote for the Democrats at the top of the ticket and in Fairfax, but they might end up voting for Pat Herity for Lieutenant Governor.

10:51.83

Sam Shirazi

you know, realistically these days, you know, Fairfax is a big county and it's important that to have a candidate from Fairfax if if you're the Republicans.

11:02.14

Sam Shirazi

But at the same time, I mean, it's only one part of Virginia. And even if he does a little bit better in Fairfax County, it's unclear if that's actually going to make a huge difference in the grand scheme of things, unless it's a really close election.

11:15.22

Sam Shirazi

But, you know, Pat Harity has been able to win a tough district for a Republican, a district that's voted for Democrats. for other offices by fairly large margins. So he has shown that he has crossover appeal.

11:30.60

Sam Shirazi

Having said that, county supervisor is a very different role than lieutenant governor, and he's going to have to wade into some difficult issues such as abortion and other things that Republicans typically on the county board do not often have to talk a lot about. But obviously, if you're running for lieutenant governor, and you may have to break ties in the Virginia Senate, you're going to be asked about a lot of things from gun control to voting rights to all these things that he may not have had had to answer questions about previously. And obviously he has a primary, so he has to say things that will get him support in the Republican primary, which I'm sure the Democrats are going to use against him if he ends up being

12:11.16

Sam Shirazi

the Republican nominee. So long story short, if if the conventional wisdom, again, is that Democrats have a little bit of an advantage at the top of the ticket with the governor's race, then you would think they have a little bit of advantage in the Lieutenant Governor's race.

12:25.65

Sam Shirazi

And it's going to be interesting to see how the numbers shake out when all the votes are in during the primary. So that's the Lieutenant Governor's race. Let's move to the Attorney General's race. It's a little bit simpler in terms of the primary.

12:41.39

Sam Shirazi

So right off the bat, there's no Republican primary for Attorney General. The only Republican running is the incumbent, Jason Miyares, and obviously there is not going to be a primary against him.

12:54.36

Sam Shirazi

On the Democratic side, there are two candidates running. There's former delegate Jay Jones, and there's the Henrico Commonwealth's attorney, Shannon Taylor. And so we can talk a little bit about that race.

13:04.75

Sam Shirazi

The good thing about it is it's a one-on-one race, which is not as complicated as a lieutenant governor's race where you have all these Democrats running. But before I talk about the primary, I just wanted to take a moment to talk about what the attorney general does and why it's an important role.

13:18.78

Sam Shirazi

And I think, you know, I talked about this in the first episode, there's a lot of focus on the governor's race, particularly by national media. And in in most people, when they think of 2025, they think of the Virginia governor's race. And that makes sense.

13:34.36

Sam Shirazi

But I do think the attorney general's race should not be overlooked, particularly in this moment. So if you think about it The Democrats in Congress don't have a whole lot of power. we i did the episode on the shutdown fight and basically how the Democrats decided not to put up a big fight in the Senate over the budget and so or the continuing resolution to fund the government.

13:58.28

Sam Shirazi

And so that that didn't really end up going anywhere. And so we're seeing a lot of the pushback to the Trump administration by Democrats happening in the courts, both private organizations and state attorney generals filing lawsuits.

14:09.44

Sam Shirazi

And a lot of these lawsuits are are at least successful at the district court level. And we're seeing a lot of injunctions being granted. It's important to keep in mind, none of that is coming from Virginia.

14:20.23

Sam Shirazi

The Virginia Attorney General, Jason Miyares, is not joining any of those lawsuits. And so those are all coming from either private organizations or the Democratic Attorney General.

14:31.17

Sam Shirazi

And, you know, obviously, if the Democrats win the Attorney General's office, that's going to change and whoever becomes the Democratic Attorney General next year will file A lot of lawsuits, presumably, or they'll join a lot of lawsuits against the Trump administration.

14:46.36

Sam Shirazi

Whereas if Jason Miyares is reelected, he will continue to basically not go after the Trump administration because realistically, that's what happens. The Republican attorney generals at the state level don't go after a Republican president. And usually a Democratic attorney general at the state level doesn't go after a Democratic president. That's just the reality of how these offices work.

15:06.90

Sam Shirazi

And, you know, there are a lot of other attorney general offices that are going after the Trump administration, notably Maryland. Maryland has a Democratic attorney general who's been filing lawsuits against the Trump administration.

15:18.46

Sam Shirazi

But there may be Virginia specific issues that only the Virginia attorney general may be able to bring. There's also an issue called standing, which means does a party have the legal ability to bring a lawsuit? And sometimes if something is really directly directly affecting Virginia, perhaps only the attorney general in Virginia could bring the lawsuit.

15:37.45

Sam Shirazi

And generally, as I mentioned, there's a lot of litigation going on and there's you know there are a lot of lawyers, but there's not an infinite supply of lawyers. And to have another office of attorney general another attorney general office with a decent amount of lawyers who might be able to bring these lawsuits, I think is important at the federal level.

15:56.66

Sam Shirazi

And as I mentioned, this podcast is called Federal Fallout. I'm trying to kind of explore the intersection of what's going on in DC with the federal government and the Virginia state election. So I don't want to belabor the point, but as you can tell, i think there is a decent amount on the line for the attorney general's race in terms of what will happen next year.

16:15.37

Sam Shirazi

If there's a changeover in the attorney general's office, or if the incumbent Jason Miyares is able to get reelected. All right, with all that out of the way, let's talk about the two democratic candidates running for attorney general.

16:30.57

Sam Shirazi

And I think they each kind of come from a different geographic area and they bring a different dynamic to the race. So former delegate Jay Jones, he was a delegate representing Norfolk.

16:41.09

Sam Shirazi

He has a decent amount of name recognition because he ran for attorney general in 2021 against the incumbent Democrat Mark Herring. Jay Jones ended up losing that primary.

16:52.45

Sam Shirazi

Mark Herring went on to lose the general election in 2021 because it was a tough year for Democrats, but Jay Jones has run for attorney general before. So he has the name ID there and he has, you know, his base of support in the Hampton Roads area.

17:05.65

Sam Shirazi

He also comes from the African American community. And I think that also gives him a level of support. So when you add all that together, you know, I think there's an argument that he's slightly considered the front runner for the attorney general nomination on the Democratic side.

17:20.08

Sam Shirazi

However, I think his opponent, Henrico Commonwealth's attorney, Shannon Taylor. So she comes from Henrico County, which is in the Richmond suburbs. It's a big county.

17:31.08

Sam Shirazi

Commonwealth's attorney is just a fancy name for a prosecutor. So she's the top prosecutor in Henrico. So she obviously has that part of Virginia that might come out to support her. And, you know, realistically, sometimes these primaries come down to different communities. And I think The wild card here is going to be Northern Virginia and how that breaks. So if you think about Jay Jones might have more of the support in Hampton Roads, maybe Shannon Taylor has more support in the Richmond suburbs.

18:02.25

Sam Shirazi

What's gonna happen in Northern Virginia? Are they gonna split it? Is one candidate gonna do better than the other? And I think you know if Shannon Taylor is able to maybe mobilize women and she she gets more of that community to come out for her, that could be a pathway for her to win.

18:17.89

Sam Shirazi

But if instead, know, Northern Virginia split pretty evenly, that Jay Jones is able to consolidate Hampton Roads, and he's able to get more of the African American vote, then you can see him having more of a pathway to then win. So regardless, we'll find out one way or another, which candidate is going to win.

18:36.65

Sam Shirazi

I think that should be interesting. It's, it's as I mentioned, a one-on-one contest. Whoever gets to 50.1% is going to win. So it's going to be interesting to see which candidate will be able to pull it out.

18:51.64

Sam Shirazi

So that's both the LG and Attorney General's races. I did want to briefly talk about the general election for the Attorney General. So as I mentioned, Jason Miyares is the only incumbent statewide who's running for reelection.

19:07.44

Sam Shirazi

I think his strategy is going to be a typical, you know, tough on crime Republican campaign, basically running on that. And there's a possibility he may run a little bit ahead of the ticket just because he's an attorney general.

19:22.69

Sam Shirazi

However, as I mentioned, I think nowadays there's less ticket splitting. So I wouldn't necessarily count on that.

19:30.69

Sam Shirazi

I think the reality is if Democrats win by, let's say five points at least, then you know it's going to be difficult for any of the other Republicans down ticket to win.

19:40.85

Sam Shirazi

If we're talking about a one to three point win for the Democrats, that's in the range where maybe the Republicans may be able to hold the attorney general office. So I don't think it's a given that the Democrats are going to win the attorney general's office, particularly if it's closer than people anticipate.

19:59.00

Sam Shirazi

i did want to just briefly talk about the primary generally. So the primary will be on June 17th, but there is 45 days of early voting. So the early voting will start on May 2nd.

20:14.31

Sam Shirazi

So that's coming up. So that's not too far away in terms of the Virginia primary.

20:22.93

Sam Shirazi

So I think the big question is how much turnout there's going to be on each side. And it really comes down to on the Republican side, is there going to be a governor primary? If there's a primary on for governor, then obviously that's going to drive turnout.

20:36.21

Sam Shirazi

Most people are going to come out for the governor's race and then they'll probably end up voting for lieutenant governor. But if there's just a lieutenant governor's race on the Republican side, you know, it's hard to know how many people are actually going to come out for just the lieutenant governor's primary in Virginia.

20:51.44

Sam Shirazi

So we'll just have to wait and see. As I mentioned in previous episodes, there are two Republicans attempting to get 10,000 signatures to get on the Republican ballot for governor. We don't know right now if that's going to happen.

21:02.25

Sam Shirazi

They have until April 3rd to submit those signatures. So we'll just have to wait and see if there's a Republican primary at the top of the ticket. On the Democratic side, i think with each passing day, it's less and less likely that there is going to be a Democratic primary for governor.

21:18.46

Sam Shirazi

But we're fairly certain there's going to be one for lieutenant governor and attorney general. And I think the question comes down to who's going to turn out for those races. I think it will be, for the most part, pretty diehard Democrats.

21:30.92

Sam Shirazi

But I do think there's a possibility that there are going to be more people coming out this year just because more people are engaged in the Virginia elections.

21:41.86

Sam Shirazi

So if you look back to 2013, that was the last time there was just a lieutenant governor primary on the ballot without a governor's race on the ballot for the Democrats in a primary.

21:52.90

Sam Shirazi

And that time you had about 145,000 people turn out for that primary. I think almost certainly this time there's going to be more than that, partly because of population growth, partly because people are a lot more engaged than they were 2013.

22:07.07

Sam Shirazi

And I think one of the real wild cards in the primary, and I think this is something that like doesn't get a lot of attention in Virginia, and I might just do a whole podcast about it, but right now I'll just talk about it briefly, is the permanent absentee list.

22:21.39

Sam Shirazi

So the permanent absentee list is an optional list that anyone can sign up for where you sign up to get a ballot every single election without having to request it each time.

22:35.16

Sam Shirazi

And there's an option when you're filling out that form to request to either get ballots for the Republican primary or the Democratic primary or neither primary. And the reality is vast majority of people who sign up for the permanent absentee list typically are Democrats.

22:51.27

Sam Shirazi

And so there are a lot of Democrats on the permanent absentee list.

22:55.87

Sam Shirazi

And I went and looked at the 2024 Democratic primary for president in March 2024. And in that election, the record show there were two hundred over 217,000 Democrats on the permanent absentee list.

23:13.89

Sam Shirazi

And of those 217,000 Democrats, over 100,000 voted by mail. So you you had about a 50% return rate. and And I'm guessing for a primary, like for Lieutenant Governor, you're probably going to get another 50% return rate.

23:30.81

Sam Shirazi

but you know The permanent absentee list has probably only grown since then. So let's say there are 220,000 Democrats on the permanent absentee list, even if half those people return their ballots, that's 110,000 people just from the permanent absentee list that are voting by mail.

23:48.16

Sam Shirazi

And as I mentioned in 2013, the whole primary, there were only 145,000 people. And so this time, i think it's likely we're gonna get over 200,000 people voting in the Democratic primary,

24:01.08

Sam Shirazi

if not hit 250,000, just given the engagement and the permanent absentee list and the fact that it's easier to vote now in Virginia. So I think it's gonna be wild card to see who those people end up voting for, how do the campaigns reach them,

24:16.78

Sam Shirazi

Are they sending out mailers? I think those are all going to be really interesting questions because is the first big statewide primary since the permanent absentee list was rolled out. So the first year I think it was in use was 2022. There was no statewide in 2022.

24:31.75

Sam Shirazi

There was no statewide race in twenty twenty two there was a Presidential primary in 2024, so that was used for the first time, but realistically in 2024, the Democratic primary for president was not super competitive.

24:47.45

Sam Shirazi

So this is the first time we're gonna have a really competitive primary where there's gonna have this permanent absentee list being used. And so I just think it's an important little wrinkle as we see the results rolling in on primary night, that there's gonna be a fair amount of mail ballots coming in from this permanent absentee list.

25:05.75

Sam Shirazi

So that's a lot on the primaries. You know, it's only going to ramp up. Make sure you vote in the Democratic or Republican primary, whichever one you choose to vote in. Early voting will start on May 2nd, and then the primary is on June 17th.

25:22.39

Sam Shirazi

So I'm going to be covering it all. that's not even I haven't even gone to the House of Delegates. There's going to be a not a whole lot of primaries, but there will be some primaries in the House of Delegates. I will cover that. Obviously, there's a lot of developments every day outside of the primary, just on the regular campaign trail and in D.C.,

25:39.47

Sam Shirazi

a lot going on. I will try to do my best to cover everything. I wanted to use this podcast to talk about the Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General primaries because those are very important and those are coming up.

25:50.62

Sam Shirazi

But I will follow up and do other podcasts on everything else that's going on. So thank you for listening and hope you will listen next time.

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