Hi, everyone. I’m Sam Shirazi, and this is Federal Fallout, the 2025 Virginia elections. This episode, we will go over the governor’s debate and highlight some of the key moments and talk about what it might mean for the campaign.

00:29.44

Sam Shirazi

Now to begin, let’s go over the debate. So it was an hour long debate. it was in Norfolk and the two candidates for governor were there. And obviously this was high stakes because of the news that happened over the last week with the text from Jay Jones and,

00:46.30

Sam Shirazi

It was going to be a big part of the debate. It dominated the first part of the debate. And then obviously there was discussions about other issues. But I think a lot of the media was focusing on that issue and seeing how Spanberger would respond.

00:59.40

Sam Shirazi

So anyway, that’s kind of the background of the debate. I think this is the only debate we’re going to be getting. So that raised the stakes even more. And if you think about where the race is, Spanberger is up right now. So she wants to play it safe, protect her lead.

01:11.84

Sam Shirazi

She doesn’t want to do anything to rock the boat too much. If you think about where Winston Merle Sears is, she’s down in the polls. Conventional wisdom is if you have a debate and you’re down, you’re going to have to get some sort of game changer, have to be a little bit more aggressive.

01:24.94

Sam Shirazi

I think she certainly was more aggressive than Spanberger and there was a lot of interruptions and That was part of the dynamic of the debate and one of the things people noted at the end. But the thing i wanted to kind of lead with before i play a clip of the debate, I wanted to play a clip from the 2021 debate in Virginia for governor.

01:44.20

Sam Shirazi

Because I think we’ve gotten to the era where, in my mind, it it’s hard for a debate to really help you. Maybe if you have a really good moment, it can it can help you. But for the most part, the reality is these debates are each side looking for something to knock the other off of with. And so to give you an example...

02:04.54

Sam Shirazi

Obviously, 2024, we had the first presidential debate. It was very bad for President Biden. I think that’s like an example of what happens in these types of debates where they really make an impact in an election is when they go badly. So if you really screw up in a debate, it can really hurt you. That obviously hurt President Biden in 2024.

02:21.47

Sam Shirazi

And it also hurt Terry McAuliffe in 2021 when he was running for governor. So first, I want to play the 2021 clip because honestly, understand was somewhat out of context the way the Republicans used it, but the reality is this was not a great thing to say if you’re running for governor.

02:40.01

Sam Shirazi

And I think it probably wasn’t the only reason Terry McAuliffe lost, but I think it’s kind of a lesson of what not to do in a debate and frankly, kind of what either any candidate wants to avoid when they’re debating because ultimately,

02:53.68

Sam Shirazi

that is the main thing a debate can do to you. It can hurt you. It can’t really hurt help you. So I will play that clip.

03:36.21

Sam Shirazi

So that was a clip of terra McAuliffe in 2021. It was seized on by the Republicans and Glenn Youngkin really fed into their story that the Virginia Democrats were not allowing parents to stay in their child’s education. So really helped Glenn Youngkin that year.

03:52.39

Sam Shirazi

Again, i don’t think that alone was the reason Glenn Youngkin won, but it certainly didn’t help the Democrats. And I think it’s just one of those things to keep in mind. I mean, that’s frankly what I’m looking for in a lot of these debates. Like, is there any sort of major screw up by either candidate?

04:06.46

Sam Shirazi

I will say for Spanberger, she had the easier task in the debate. All she had to do was go into the debate, not totally mess up like like that, and then she’ll be fine because she just wants to live to see another day.

04:18.29

Sam Shirazi

She’s ahead. She obviously has to deal with the Jay Jones story, and we’ll we’ll talk a little bit about how she dealt with that. But – Essentially, what she needed to do was survive the debate. And I think if that was her goal, she did that. I don’t think the day after the debate, anyone was like, oh, my God, can you believe what Spanberger did?

04:34.69

Sam Shirazi

It really wasn’t a huge deal in terms of the election. i think it’s not really a game changer. That’s kind of how I saw things on the Spanberger side. With Winsor Meryl Sears, you know I think she had to be more aggressive, and you certainly saw that from her. you know She landed a few punches on Spanberger, but ultimately I don’t think it was the kind of game changer she needed.

04:56.01

Sam Shirazi

And there was one moment in the debate where I think you know kind of – don’t want to it was exactly the same as the McAuliffe gaffe, but I think – Certainly, Democrats wanted to seize on this thing that Winston Earl Sears said. So she essentially said that it’s not discrimination when someone is not for same-sex marriage or is not for protections for gay people in the workplace. That’s not discrimination. so So you’ll hear the clip in a little bit while I’ll play it. But essentially, the Democrats wanted to use that, I think,

05:27.20

Sam Shirazi

it was kind of a short soundbite moment that I think was easy for the Democrats to take and use. So in that sense, I think it wasn’t a great moment for Winston-Will Sears. At the same time, you know, I don’t know if it’s the kind of game changer moment because frankly, Winston-Will Sears has been pretty clear about some of her socially conservative views. She just stated them in the debate, but I don’t think it was some huge revelation that is going to totally change the the election.

05:55.21

Sam Shirazi

And I also think the fact that, Winston Merle Sears, uh, was more aggressive, tried to get some more focus on the Jay Jones text. That happened. A lot of the headlines the next day were about the text. So I think in that sense, she did well. She was able to kind of focus on that issue, even though she also had this thing about discrimination that I think was also so creating some negative headlines for her. So long story short, i will play you a clip, a compilation of clips from the debate, just so you get a sense of what happened.

06:23.41

Sam Shirazi

And then I’ll give you kind of my final thoughts. But I don’t think this was like the The race has suddenly changed because of this debate. I think it was pretty status quo after the the debate didn’t really move the boat too much. So let me play you a few clips of what the debate debate sounded like if in case you didn’t catch it

07:34.63

Sam Shirazi

All right. So those were a few clips from the Virginia governor’s debate. i thought Spanberger’s answer on the Jay Jones side of things was kind of interesting because both Winsor Meryl Sears and the moderators wanted her to take more of a specific stance on him.

07:51.42

Sam Shirazi

So Winsor Meryl Sears wanted her to basically denounce him, say he should drop out. The moderators wanted Abigail Spanberger to say that she endorses him. She basically took the middle ground saying, it’s not my race. I’m focused on my race. he you know The voters can make a decision about the attorney general race, which you know obviously doesn’t help Jay Jones a whole lot, but in theory doesn’t hurt Spanberger because she can’t be tied as closely to him.

08:16.99

Sam Shirazi

So long story short, and i think there was never going to be a great answer about the Jay Jones story from the Spanberger camp. So I think from her side, she’s just happy that She survived. Again, no major gaffe, nothing that you know was dominating the news the next day. you know At the end, you heard the comments that Winston Ross-Sears made about discrimination.

08:37.36

Sam Shirazi

i think the Democrats are seizing upon that to the extent that there was a gaffe. I think that was probably the closest we got to a gaffe. But again, I don’t think it was this huge game changer in terms of the election.

08:48.61

Sam Shirazi

And so pretty much we’re back where we started with this debate. Didn’t change the dynamics in the race. I think it was interesting. Got to see the different styles.

08:59.44

Sam Shirazi

And one thing I should kind of mention before I move on, because...

09:04.30

Sam Shirazi

You know, I am and relatively younger. I’m not super old. I’m not super young. I’m kind of at that point where I’ve seen politics for a while. And I remember the pre-Trump era and I remember the Trump era, obviously.

09:17.14

Sam Shirazi

I think a lot of older Virginia commentators, people have watched debates for like 30, 40 years. were telling me like how much different this debate was. I mean, this is not necessarily a normal type debate for Virginia. The reason for that, you know, in the old days, there was kind of a different way of doing politics in Virginia, much more, you know, frankly, it was gentlemanly because it was mainly men back then, kind of more of a Southern gentil gentility, gentility.

09:44.61

Sam Shirazi

that dominated these debates and you would kind of be courteous to your opponent and all the sorts of things that you know you would imagine in kind of the old school way of doing politics.

09:55.47

Sam Shirazi

And I think Spanberger certainly was trying to keep that tradition alive. You could very much see that that’s what she was trying to do. And you saw kind of that clip where she said, you know you’re not my enemy.

10:06.32

Sam Shirazi

She’s trying to you know partly because I think that’s her personality, but I think partly that was a strategy. She wanted to seem like, and know I’m calm, cool, collected. I’m contrast to Winsome Rale Sears, who she probably rightly suspected was going to be more aggressive.

10:20.20

Sam Shirazi

And so you see Spanberger trying to do the kind of old school way of doing politics. Winstermore Sears, clearly, i mean, I think she had to do something because she’s behind in the polls, but was much more aggressive.

10:32.06

Sam Shirazi

And you could call it kind of a Trumpier style where you’re interrupting your opponent, you’re trying to goad your opponent. And I think that while we’re kind of we’re kind of all used to that, because that’s been the politics for roughly the last 10 years, I do think it’s been a shift from previous Virginia elections.

10:48.04

Sam Shirazi

And I just wanted to note that. And I do think that it’s interesting to see that Winston-Marcel Sears, you know, I I think the Republicans were glad that she was a little bit more aggressive, but I’m curious to see the voter in the middle. Are they going to necessarily like that sort of approach in a debate?

11:03.10

Sam Shirazi

And it reminded me a little bit of the first debate in 2020. So if people remember that, that was between present then President Trump and Vice President Biden, who later won the election and became President Biden.

11:16.23

Sam Shirazi

So In that debate, similar dynamic, Trump was behind in the polls. He had to be more aggressive. And so he interrupted Biden a lot. And you know Biden, I think at that time, was a better debater and was able to kind of effectively deal with it. And I think most people thought that Biden won that first debate in 2020 because he was able to kind of look more statesmanlike than Trump.

11:38.01

Sam Shirazi

you know You could argue there’s kind of a similar dynamic here where Earl Sears was interrupting and Spanberger looked a little bit more polished and put together. But at the end of the day, I mean, I think we’ve...

11:48.47

Sam Shirazi

Politics has changed and, you know Republicans want to see the aggressive posture. Probably the Democrats are fine with more of a, you know, normal style debating that Spanberger was able to do. So I want to keep in mind that the reality is most people don’t watch these debates. You know, obviously the hyperpolitical people are really tuned in.

12:09.10

Sam Shirazi

Maybe people will see one or two clips. So from the Spanberger side, they’ll probably see the clip about Jay Jones. From the Earl Sear side, they might see the clip about discrimination. mean, that’s essentially what most people get out of these debates. And so as much as the debates matter, I think they’ve essentially become these clips that you share on social media. And you know as frustrating as that is, i mean, you aren’t going to get these you know real substantive policy debates out.

12:34.75

Sam Shirazi

You know, the first question in the debate was actually about the car tax, which is, you know, kind of an important policy question for certain people. I mean, Earl Sears quickly tried to just talk about the Jay Jones stuff. I mean, she didn’t really want to talk about the car tax, even though, you know, that’s that’s something she had talked about during her campaign.

12:52.95

Sam Shirazi

And I was struck how both campaigns were not necessarily able to talk about the main themes about at least that they previously talked about in this election. So for Spanberger, you know, one of her main themes is the throw cuts and the economic impact to Virginia.

13:07.39

Sam Shirazi

Obviously, with the shutdown going on, in theory, she would want to talk about that. There was a little bit of talk about that, but that wasn’t like the dominant thing about the debate. She wasn’t really able to get that much in about those things. And, you know, frankly, she was trying to play it safe. She didn’t want to you know, be too aggressive and and force the issue, but she wasn’t able to really talk about that issue, which is really her best issue.

13:26.61

Sam Shirazi

And then for Earl Sears, I mean, I’ve talked about this before. I mean, she spent two months on the trans issue, spent a lot of money trying to get that message out there. And there was a question towards the end of the debate about it, but it was kind of an afterthought. And I think Spanberger, you know,

13:40.26

Sam Shirazi

got through it and it wasn’t a huge deal. And so you saw Sears spent two months of the campaign on an issue and it just really wasn’t that big of a deal in debate. Now, obviously, she now she has a Jay Jones text and so she wanted to talk about those. So she had something else. But long story short, I mean, this isn’t some you know super meaningful policy debate and people got a lot of nuance and and more information about the candidates. It really was just...

14:04.06

Sam Shirazi

you know, politics at the end of the day and trying to survive for Spanberger, trying to, you know, score some points for Earl Sears. I would say both of them probably did fine for what their end goals were Neither of them got the game change.

14:18.73

Sam Shirazi

And frankly, Earl Sears kind of needed the game changer. And so she didn’t get that. So in that sense, I think if you’re, you know, in the grand scheme of things, looking at this debate, probably the advantages with Spanberger, because if you’re up, you just want to survive the debate, you want to move on.

14:31.32

Sam Shirazi

Spanberger was able to do that, and so she kind of met the objectives she had set out for this debate. All right, now let’s move on to a different topic, which is the ongoing shutdown and some of the potential rifts that could be coming out of D.C. So obviously the last week has been pretty rough for the Virginia Democrats since the Jay Jones tech story has come out, and they’ve really been on the defense this past week.

14:54.53

Sam Shirazi

Even though the shutdown has been going on, that has been in the background, I’m the Virginia elections for the past week have been kind of dominated by that issue. However, on Friday afternoon, the head of OMB, Russ Vought, he tweeted out or posted on X that quote, the rifts have begun and didn’t really elaborate beyond that. But obviously people have been waiting to see what was going to happen with the potential layoffs that during the shutdown. So at the beginning shutdown,

15:25.30

Sam Shirazi

The Trump administration said there could be layoffs. think there had been those have been delayed for a while because there was an attempt to maybe reach a compromise with the Democrats to get the government back open.

15:35.70

Sam Shirazi

My sense is the democrat Democrats are not going to go along with a compromise that promises a vote without any sort of real guarantee that some of their demands are met.

15:46.21

Sam Shirazi

And so long story short, I think the Republicans came to the conclusion, or at least the Trump administration came to conclusion, that the shutdown is not going to end anytime soon. Let’s just go ahead and do the layoffs. And, you know, we said we’d do them. We gave them a chance to negotiate.

15:58.54

Sam Shirazi

They didn’t negotiate. Now we’re going to do the layoffs. Obviously, as of the recording of this podcast, we have not heard specific details. We don’t know how many jobs are involved. We don’t know how many of those jobs are in Virginia. But it’s hard for me to imagine if this actually...

16:12.10

Sam Shirazi

happens, it won’t have an impact on the election because obviously decent amount of those jobs are probably going to be based in either DC or Northern Virginia. People who live in Virginia are probably going to be impacted.

16:23.72

Sam Shirazi

It brings this whole story back to the forefront. Obviously, at the beginning of the year we had the Doge thing and that was a big impact at the beginning of the year to both Virginia and the Virginia elections.

16:35.16

Sam Shirazi

It had died off, died down for a little bit. And this is now potentially Doge 2.0, where it really comes back into the open. And the time when right before people are about to start voting, and actually there’s early voting going on right now, the federal cuts and specifically the cuts to federal jobs is now back up.

16:52.80

Sam Shirazi

at the forefront of everyone’s mind because there might be these layoffs that are happening. And, you know, it’s hard to tell how much of an impact it’s going to have on the election. It’s possible that, you know, the people who are upset at this, we’re going to vote for the Democrats anyway. it doesn’t really move the needle too much. But I do think In the reality of people’s lives, specifically in Northern Virginia, the shutdown and the potential losses of more federal jobs are a big deal.

17:19.84

Sam Shirazi

They’re probably going to feel an impact to the local economy, even if the impact isn’t like immediate where people, the the local economy is immediately feeling the hit. If you’re a local business owner,

17:31.12

Sam Shirazi

You know, you’re thinking in the back of your mind, federal employees aren’t getting paid. There could be layoffs, like people are gonna have less money to come into my store. And so that’s still something you’re thinking about, even though maybe the impacts haven’t been felt yet.

17:43.75

Sam Shirazi

And so I do think this is going to be important story as the campaign continues. And not just the federal layoffs, I mean, the shutdown itself. And and there was kind of a interesting moment that happened. So the Speaker of the House, Speaker Johnson, went on C-SPAN. So C-SPAN does this thing where politicians come on and then just members of the public are able to call in. Usually it’s not high high government officials that go on this. It’s usually kind of back bench members of Congress, but Speaker Johnson...

18:11.54

Sam Shirazi

agreed to do this. And you know to his credit, not too many speakers have agreed to do it. So you know that’s one thing that was interesting to watch. But he did get a call from a person in Virginia who identified herself as a Republican.

18:23.93

Sam Shirazi

And she said to Speaker Johnson, she was very disappointed that he had not brought the House back and that he had not brought a vote forward on pay for the military because the military might miss a paycheck. And she was talking about her own specific family. It’s a military family.

18:39.32

Sam Shirazi

Some of her kids have medical issues and this is going to potentially really hurt her family. And so I thought that was interesting. One, because it shows you that not everyone who’s impacted by the shutdown is a Democrat. I think there is this mentality among some Republicans that and who cares about the shutdown? Who cares about federal firings?

18:56.97

Sam Shirazi

It’s all Democrats. you know they’re They’re going to vote for the Democrats anyway. It’s not really going to hurt us. I think specifically on the military side, both in Northern Virginia and in Hampton Roads, a lot of swing voters, a lot of, frankly, Republican voters who, you know, their their military...

19:12.45

Sam Shirazi

They might you know lean to the right, but they all see obviously get their paycheck from the federal government. And so anytime that is getting interrupted, they are going to pay attention. So in that sense, this is kind of an important story for them, not just kind of the traditional federal employee you think of in northern Virginia.

19:29.85

Sam Shirazi

So I don’t want to lose sight of the shutdown because we are probably going to be at this point, it’s looking closer and closer to like at least a two week shutdown. And so I don’t know how it’s going to end. And it’s,

19:43.56

Sam Shirazi

possible it doesn’t end and it’s possible that it drags on and on. And frankly, the fact that the Trump administration is announcing rifts is telling me that this is probably going go on longer because if they thought that there was going to be an end soon, I think they would try to negotiate something with the Democrats. This is telling me the negotiations aren’t working. We’re just going to go through with these rifts and then see what happens.

20:03.42

Sam Shirazi

So, I mean, i i keep telling people there’s a non-zero chance that on election day, there could be a shutdown still going on. I think every day, obviously, we get closer and closer to that. And basically, since the shutdown started on October 1st, there has been really no progress in terms of negotiations.

20:21.95

Sam Shirazi

And just to kind of set up what the fundamental problem is. So, I will say that typically in the Senate, things are still a little bit more like the old school backroom deal type days. So I think from the Republican standpoint, the Republicans are telling the Democrats, just vote for this continuing resolution we have on the table.

20:40.32

Sam Shirazi

And then sometime in the future, we promise we’re going to give you a vote on the Obamacare subsidies that you care about. And so we need to open the government first, and then we promise we’ll give you a vote on the Obamacare subsidies. I think the problem with that from a Democratic standpoint is that the Democrats, even if they believe the Senate Republicans, you know, if Chuck Schumer believes John Thune, you know, John Thune, you seem like a man of your word. I believe you. you’re going to give us a vote on this.

21:05.62

Sam Shirazi

They understand how the government works. You need the House of Representatives to vote and pass something in order for a bill to become law. And so I think a lot of Senate Democrats are saying, OK, well, that’s great. Senate Republicans, you’re willing to negotiate with us.

21:19.54

Sam Shirazi

You need to get Mike Johnson and the House Republicans on board with this so that whatever happens, whatever resolution we come up with, both chambers agree this gets passed. And also, oh by the way, President Trump agrees to it. So whatever gets passed,

21:33.51

Sam Shirazi

we will have that bill signed into law. And I think that’s how the Democrats view the end game. The Democrats view the end game is everyone sits down, the Republicans get the government reopened and they might get some funding for things they want.

22:04.98

Sam Shirazi

The Republican position is We’re not gonna negotiate while the government shut down. You have to reopen the government, Democrats, and then we will sit down and negotiate whatever we’re gonna negotiate with you.

22:14.64

Sam Shirazi

And I think the problem with that is obviously once the government is reopened, the Republicans probably aren’t gonna give the Democrats what they want. And at least that’s the Democratic perception. And so the Democrats say we need to get everything in one bill to get it done.

22:29.94

Sam Shirazi

And then, you know, we will be able to move forward. And, you know, I think they’re really at an impasse. And the Republican strategy, my sense was from the beginning, that we’re just going to wait out the Democrats. Democrats are going to cave. Eventually, they’re going you know, give up and we’ll win the shutdown fight. There’s really no indication that’s going to happen, at least at this point.

22:50.26

Sam Shirazi

And so I think maybe that’s why the rifts are going forward. And maybe the members of the Trump administration, their attitude is, look, If the Democrats don’t want to negotiate with us, whatever, we’ll just keep going. we’ll do this we’ll The shutdown will keep going. We’ll do the layoffs and you know we’ll be able to, we’ll be fine.

23:08.37

Sam Shirazi

I think from a national Republican perspective, you know, you could argue if that makes sense or not. But certainly from a Virginia Republican standpoint, that really doesn’t make a whole lot of sense, especially when the elections are three and a half weeks away. So this is really coming at the worst possible time for the Virginia Republicans. You know, they obviously had this good story for them from their perspective on the Jay Jones stuff. So, OK, they’re having a little bit of momentum.

23:34.40

Sam Shirazi

Focus has shifted to something they want to talk about. And all of a sudden, the national Republicans are kind of throwing this wild card of the rifts that could happen in terms of the shutdown. And, you know, the thing I find interesting is that Frankly, the polling’s a little bit mixed.

23:49.00

Sam Shirazi

For the most part, more people are blaming the Republicans than the Democrats by a slight percentage. But my gut is telling me, you know, most people, it’s like they’re blaming everyone. Congress’s fault, Democrats, Republicans, President Trump, everyone’s to blame.

24:02.58

Sam Shirazi

So it’s not necessarily like the Republicans are getting killed right now on the shutdown. I think what could really hurt them and could really hurt the Virginia Republicans If the story shifts from the shutdown to the federal firings, again, i don’t know how big they are. If there are a few hundred people, just not a big deal in the grand scheme of things.

24:19.34

Sam Shirazi

If we’re talking about thousands of people across multiple agencies, different parts of the country, different parts of Virginia, I mean, that’s when it’s really going to become a major story. And that’s kind of like what it was like in the beginning of the year with Doge, when there were layoffs at multiple federal agencies, Department Education, Department of Health and Human Services.

24:35.91

Sam Shirazi

usad I mean, it it just it it really dominated the beginning part of the year if you lived in northern Virginia. And I think there’s a possibility now that there are they going to be have these layoffs. It could again dominate things really at the worst possible time for the Virginia Republicans.

24:50.74

Sam Shirazi

We’ll see. I mean, that there’s a lot unknown. I’m sure we’ll get more details in the days to come. it’s all It’s also possible that the shutdown could be avoided or or not avoided, but could be ended anytime, either because there’s too much pressure, there’s pressure about the military pay, there’s pressure about the FAA.

25:06.73

Sam Shirazi

Both sides just want to get it over with. So you never know. You never know when these things are going to end. But I do want to update everyone. So lot going on. Again, there’s a reason I called the podcast Federal Fallout. I do think what’s going to happen in D.C. is really going to impact the Virginia elections. We’re seeing that at the end where, again, it’s impacting the Virginia election. So.

25:24.57

Sam Shirazi

Anyways, I appreciate everyone who’s been listening. it’s I’m going to be doing more podcasts probably the closer we get to Election Day. Try to have some more people on because there’s obviously a lot going on. I want to keep people updated. And this is really it. This is the homestretch. We’re going almost be at the end. So really want to appreciate everyone who’s been listening. And I hope I’ll do my best to keep everyone updated. And this has been Federal Fallout. And I’ll join you next time.

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