Hi, everyone. i am Sam Shirazi, and this is Federal Fallout to 2025 Virginia Elections. This episode, we will go over the House of Delegates and just take a look at the seats that might flip on election night.

00:11.78

Sam Shirazi

Now, to be perfectly honest, I have not spent a lot of time recently on the House of Delegates because there’s been so much else going on. particularly with the attorney general race. And then there’s been the shutdown, which is pretty crazy to think the shutdown still going on. And you know I don’t even have time to talk about it. I’m sure i will talk about it if it’s continuing in another episode.

00:28.66

Sam Shirazi

But this episode, I really did want to focus on the House of Delegates because it just doesn’t get a lot of attention in terms of the national and the state media, because there’s just so much focus that the on the statewide races.

00:40.39

Sam Shirazi

But all 100 seats in the House of Delegates are up for re-election. Democrats currently hold a 51-49 majority. There are a lot of really interesting races. I think in some ways for the political nerds, this is kind of the most interesting part of the campaign because there’s 100 different elections.

00:55.14

Sam Shirazi

Realistically, there aren’t going to be that many competitive races. And I’m going to mainly focus on the races the Democrats are trying to flip this year in Virginia. I will not be making predictions in every single House of Delegates race. I may tip my hand who I think has the advantage To be perfectly honest, I tend to defer to Chaz Natty-Comb and State Navigate on the House Delegates stuff because he did a really good job in 2023.

01:18.85

Sam Shirazi

He predicted all 100 seats in the House of Delegates so and all 40 seats in the state Senate. He has a model and State Navigate has a model. So I would recommend everyone take a look at that.

01:29.42

Sam Shirazi

you know In terms of individual predictions, I would kind of defer to that. Again, I will tip my hand a little bit. I don’t think it’s a huge leap to say that the Democrats are very favored to hold their majority in the House of Delegates.

01:41.44

Sam Shirazi

To be perfectly honest, Republicans are not even competing in half the districts or seriously competing in half the districts. They’re only really attempting to compete in 50 of the districts. There’s one Democratic seat held seat that the Republicans are competing and in. That’s House District 97. I think unless there’s a red wave, which you know right now seems relatively unlikely, I think the Democrats should be able to hold that seat.

02:04.64

Sam Shirazi

So I’m going to mainly focus on the seats the Democrats are targeting. They already have a 51-49 majority. I think there’s a good chance their majority is going to expand. I think the good, the big question is how many seats do they pick up? Do they pick up a couple seats? They pick up five seats. They pick up 10 seats. I think that’s really hard to know. A lot of that will depend on the top of the ticket.

02:23.42

Sam Shirazi

There’s obviously no way of knowing that right now. you know We just have to wait and see how much the Spanburger win by and how much ticket splitting is there. And then in some of these seats, there’s also going to be a turnout dynamic in terms of younger voters, in terms of black voters. So I will talk about each race. I’ll spend some more time on the more interesting races. I think, frankly, some of these are are less interesting, either because they’re not going be super competitive or just because there isn’t a whole lot to say.

02:49.84

Sam Shirazi

I’ll start off with the seats the Democrats are more likely to flip, and then I will go to kind of the toss-up seats that it’s a little bit unclear who has the advantage right now, and then I’ll end with the districts the Republicans are more favored to retain.

03:03.58

Sam Shirazi

All right, so to begin, i will start with House District 57. This is in the Richmond suburbs. This is currently held by Republican David Owen. It is about a Harris plus nine district.

03:16.48

Sam Shirazi

And I believe that Abigail Spanberger lives in this district. So, you know, this is the part of Virginia that the Republicans are going to have a huge problem on election night with, you know, David Owen, he’s trying his best, but I think the Democrat Maine Navarre has raised a lot more money. You know, she’s got a lot of backing, uh,

03:34.44

Sam Shirazi

you know if If seats are starting to flip, this is going to be the first leap to flip. And I think there’s a decent chance or more than a decent chance that the Democrats are going to pick up this seat. So you know right off the bat, I think Democrats are going to pick up at least this one seat. If if that happens, you know obviously it’s going to be very hard for them to not get the majority in the House of Delegates or or for the Republicans to flip the House of Delegates. So part of the reason that they’re so favored in the House of Delegates to retain the majority is because they are favored to flip this seat. And so if you’re already flipping a seat, you know there’s really no way for the Republicans to get a majority.

04:04.23

Sam Shirazi

So all that’s to say is House District 57. I don’t want to spend a lot of time on it because, frankly, there’s not a whole lot to say other than the Democrats are pretty favored to flip it right now. Okay, let’s talk about another district. This is House District 71.

04:17.93

Sam Shirazi

This is in the Williamsburg area. The current incumbent is Amanda Batten, and she is being challenged by Jessica Anderson. So this was about a Harris plus 5% district.

04:28.41

Sam Shirazi

I think Spanberger is a good fit for the district. I think she’s going to be winning the district pretty comfortably. i think there isn’t going to be a whole lot of ticket splitting or enough to save Amanda Batten. So again, if there are seats flipping, I think this is probably the second seat to flip on election night.

04:43.29

Sam Shirazi

So we’re already seeing if there’s kind of even a normal type election, not a huge wave, Democrats are going to flip these two seats pretty easily. I think if Spanberger is winning by at least five or more,

04:54.35

Sam Shirazi

at the top of the ticket. All right, now let’s move on to a different district. These next batches of districts, I would say that these are more, I don’t want to say toss-ups because I think some of the parties might have a slight advantage in each one, but I could see them going either way. And it really depends how good of a night Democrats have. I think if they have maybe...

05:12.54

Sam Shirazi

you know, a normal night, not a huge win. I think some of these seats, the Republicans can definitely hold on to them. I think if there’s a blue wave, these are the types of seats where it’s going to be very difficult for the Republicans to hang on in a blue wave environment.

05:25.94

Sam Shirazi

And I’ll start with House District 89. This is in Hampton Roads. The current Republican incumbent is retiring. And so I think that’s one of the reasons Democrats might have an advantage in this district. It was about a Harris plus 3% district, and it’s about 25% Black The one thing I will flag with this district, African-American turnout, black turnout in Hampton Roads is a big question mark for the Democrats. So if for whatever reason, Democrats cannot get those voters out, I do think there’s a scenario where the Republicans are going to be able to maintain this district.

05:55.71

Sam Shirazi

However, if you kind of have a normal election, Democrats are getting out, the voters to a certain extent, you know I can see this seat definitely flipping. All right, now let’s go to a another district with a decent amount of African-American voters. This is House District 82. It is in Petersburg and some of the surrounding suburbs.

06:13.81

Sam Shirazi

The district is actually... more than 45% Black. So I think that’s definitely going to be an important factor. How much turnout do Democrats get with Black voters? It voted for Harris by about 4%. The Republican incumbent is Kim Taylor.

06:27.22

Sam Shirazi

She is being challenged by Kimberly Pope Adams, who also ran in this seat in 2023. i think, again, this is really a turnout dynamic race, and it’s going to be very hard to predict who’s going to be able to win this seat, partly because I think it’s just...

06:41.65

Sam Shirazi

you know In theory, the Democrats on a good night should be able to win this seat, but I can see this scenario, even if Spanberger is getting a pretty healthy win where for whatever reason, Democrats are just not coming out in this district. I could, in theory, see Kim Taylor holding on.

06:55.45

Sam Shirazi

So again, i don’t want to make a prediction, but I do think in terms of what to be looking for, it’s kind of a turnout dynamic in this district in Southside and Petersburg. All right, now I’m going to talk about the neighboring district, which is House District 75. This is in Hopewell and then parts of Chesterfield County.

07:14.34

Sam Shirazi

Again, a district with a large Black population. It’s about a third Black. The current Republican incumbent is Carrie Coyner, and she is being challenged by Democrat Lindsey Daughtry.

07:25.48

Sam Shirazi

I think this is another one of those districts where It really depends about on turnout for Democrats with African-American voters. I think they know that. I think they’ve been focusing more on that this time than they did in 2023 because they kind of half-heartedly targeted this seat in 2023. I think obviously this time they’re taking it much more seriously. They’re putting a lot of money into this district.

07:44.70

Sam Shirazi

As a side note, just wanted to – Carrie Coiner, you may have heard her name in the news because – She was the Republican delegate that Jay Jones had sent those texts to. And so you’ve seen her in the news.

07:56.85

Sam Shirazi

you I don’t know how that is going to factor into this election, whether it’s going to factor into the election. Again, you know she’s hoping to get ticket splitting. I don’t know if that’s going to happen for various reasons.

08:09.37

Sam Shirazi

The thing that’s a little bit weird about this district is I can see the Democrats doing really well or doing better in the Chesterfield part of the district than they have in the past because it’s more suburban. but then turnout in the Hopewell part of the district not being that great for Democrats.

08:22.69

Sam Shirazi

So again, it’s kind of a turnout dynamic in this district, and it’s really hard to tell who’s going to be able to pull it out. you know I think if the Democrats have a good night and they’ve spent the money in this district, I think there’s a good chance they could flip it. If it’s more of a kind of neutral environment, then I think there is a scenario where Kerry Poirier could hang on.

08:41.73

Sam Shirazi

Okay, now let’s go down to Southwest Virginia, different part of Virginia, but a similar turnout dynamic. This time the turnout is with younger so younger voters, particularly students who go to Virginia Tech. So the Republican incumbent is...

08:56.66

Sam Shirazi

Chris Obenshain, he is running again against Lilly Franklin, and they faced off in 2023. The thing with this district, it’s actually a Trump district. So Trump won it.

09:06.82

Sam Shirazi

It’s a little bit hard to know the exact margin, but he won it by about three to 4%. I think the reason Democrats feel like they could win this seat, because it really does come down to students showing up. If students show up, particularly if they are able to come out on election day, Virginia has same day registration. If you’re seeing those students excited about voting, you see them come out.

09:26.95

Sam Shirazi

This is the type of seat that could flip. Lily Franklin has run before. She knows how to get those students out. It’s just, can she get and enough of those voters out? Again, purely going to come down to turnout,

09:38.51

Sam Shirazi

the seat is very oddly drawn as I’ve talked about. It’s basically the college town of Blacksburg and then a bunch of rural areas who is better at getting out their base. Really no way of knowing that until the votes come in. The one thing I will flag about this race, because students can same-day register, I do think there’s going to be a same a decent amount of provisional ballots because same-day registrations are counted as provisionals.

09:59.95

Sam Shirazi

So we may not know on election night who wins because the provisionals take several days to count. So just flagging that, even if the Republicans are ahead election night, doesn’t mean they’re going to win because there could be enough same-day registrations to give Lily Franklin the edge.

10:13.60

Sam Shirazi

All right, now let’s move back to Hampton Roads and this time talk about House District 86. I talked about this in my previous episode because State Navigate very helpfully did a poll in this district.

10:25.94

Sam Shirazi

And it found that the Democrat was up in this district. So the Republican incumbent is AC Cardoza. He has not necessarily the strongest incumbent. The Democrat is Virgil Thornton.

10:36.78

Sam Shirazi

I think it was roughly a Harris 1.5% district. is turnout thing. again this ist turnout thing The district is about 25% black. that The voters for Democrats there are in the city of Hampton.

10:50.24

Sam Shirazi

Can they get those voters out on election day? And, you know, the Republican turnout in the city of Pocosin, which is a very red district, tends to be stronger. Is this going to be the scenario where maybe the turnout is enough to save Cardoza? Democrats are pouring a lot of money into this race. you know The State Navigate poll seems to say that Democrats have a good chance of winning it.

11:10.13

Sam Shirazi

So again, a lot of these districts, it really does come down to turnout, either with younger voters or with black voters. A lot of the districts I flag so far, it’s hard for me to pick a winner because it really just comes down to

11:23.14

Sam Shirazi

And if you look at every single district I talked about for the past few ones, House District 89, House District 82, House District 75, House District 41, House District 86, those are basically turnout type districts. I mean, there is going to be a little bit of persuasion and ticket splitting dynamic, but really it just comes down to do Democrats get those voters out?

11:44.33

Sam Shirazi

Because if the Democrats can’t get the voters out in those districts, it’s not going to matter. They’re not going to be able to win. And I think that’s going to be the difference between a blue wave and a normal Democratic victory. victory And in 2023, you know, the Democrats did pretty well. They flipped. They were able to win both chambers of the House of the General Assembly, both the state Senate and House Delegates, but they didn’t get this massive blue wave because some of the turnout just wasn’t there for some of those districts.

12:09.42

Sam Shirazi

So maybe we’ll see if this year they can flip these now that there might be a more favorable environment. All right. Now I will be talking about a few different districts. Most of these are basically persuasion type districts. so what’s the difference?

12:23.98

Sam Shirazi

difference is these are more suburban districts. People are going to come out because they’re college educated, they’re wealthier. The real question in a lot of these districts is ticket splitting because most of these districts, Spanburgers should be able to win them.

12:36.88

Sam Shirazi

The question becomes, okay, if Spanberger is winning, how much ticket splitting is there going to be? Because typically, if you think about the Spanberger House of Delegates ticket splitter, it’s kind of a traditional Republican voter who either doesn’t like Trump or maybe just likes Spanberger because she seems more moderate.

12:55.05

Sam Shirazi

But they they kind of traditionally have voted for the Republicans, specifically for the House of Delegates. So I could see a decent amount of ticket splitting in these races. And again, it’s hard to know who’s going to win because we just don’t know how much ticket splitting there’s going to be right now.

13:09.04

Sam Shirazi

And the first district I will talk about is House District 22. This is in middle Prince William County in Northern Virginia. The incumbent is Ian Lovejoy, and the Democrat is Elizabeth Guzman. I think the thing that’s going be interesting in this district is just to think through, okay Is Elizabeth Guzman maybe a little bit too progressive for this district? Because she’s definitely known for being a progressive Democrat. Now, maybe that’ll motivate Democratic voters to come out and you know vote for her, to knock doors for her.

13:36.49

Sam Shirazi

But I do think there’s a potential for some more ticket splitting here because she is, again, more of a progressive Democrat. And maybe if you are a moderate swing voter in the district, you you may vote for Spamberger at the top of the ticket.

13:48.13

Sam Shirazi

but you’ll vote for Lovejoy for the House delegates. And this is a district that Harris won in 2024. However, for the House vote, the Republican House candidate in House District 10 in 2024 was able to win this district. So we have seen some ticket splitting last year in this district, and we’ll see if it happens again.

14:07.36

Sam Shirazi

Okay, next district I will talk about is House District 30. thirty This is in Western Loudoun and Western Falkir. The current incumbent is Gary Higgins.

14:18.10

Sam Shirazi

He is being challenged by Democrat John McAuliffe. And again, one of those districts, suburban, kind of going into more exurban parts of Northern Virginia, typically has been a Republican district. I think there’s a decent chance Spanberger is going to win this district.

14:33.13

Sam Shirazi

Question is how much ticket splitting does McAuliffe get and and does Higgins get because I could see some voters spilling their ticket. But then again, maybe voters in Northern Virginia will go just straight Democratic on the ticket. So another really interesting race in Northern Virginia.

14:52.81

Sam Shirazi

I will talk about one other Northern Virginia seat, and that is House District 64. That is in Middle Stafford County. The current incumbent Republican is Paul Milday, and he is being challenged by Stacey Carroll.

15:06.51

Sam Shirazi

This was a slightly Trump district. Again, Northern Virginia, federal fallout, suburban district. People traditionally have voted for the democrat for the Republicans. excuse me And I think, again, good chance that Spanberger is going to win this district.

15:21.99

Sam Shirazi

Question comes down and to ticket splitting and can the Republicans hold on in this district? OK, one more district in terms of kind of the toss up type districts. that I will talk about, and that’s House District 69.

15:35.74

Sam Shirazi

This is back down in Hampton Roads in the York area, in York County. Again, this has been a traditionally Republican part of Hampton Roads. The current incumbent Republican is Chad Green. He is being challenged by Mark Downey.

15:50.74

Sam Shirazi

Slightly, think, a 1% or 2% Trump district in 2024.

15:55.72

Sam Shirazi

So same story. I think there’s a decent chance Spamberger is going to win at the top of the ticket. How much ticket splitting is there? Is it possible for the Republican delegate to hold on here? So basically all those districts that I talked about, the last few ones are basically kind of toss up type districts where it really just comes down to persuasion and ticket splitting at the House of Delegates level. So Actually, I forgot to do one more. I mean, there’s so many of these seats the Democrats are targeting.

16:24.91

Sam Shirazi

I’ll talk about this last one, which is a similar type district, which is House District 73. This is in the Richmond suburbs in Chesterfield County. and The current Republican incumbent is Mark Early, and he is being challenged by Leslie Mehta.

16:39.13

Sam Shirazi

I think Harris very slightly carried this district. And as as I was saying before, I forgot to include this district. Same story. Just you know traditionally Republican voters. I think Spanberger is going to be doing well in the 73rd district as well because she used to represent Chesterfield. She comes from the Richmond suburb.

16:55.44

Sam Shirazi

So question just becomes, you know, I’m kind of a broken record, but in all these districts, house district 22 house district 30 house district 64 house district 69 house district how much ticket splitting can the republicans get or do the democrats just get straight ticket voting and these house of delegates candidates get right spam workers coattails and we’ve seen that before in previous virginia elections where when there’s a blue wave or a red wave at the top of the ticket 2017, a bunch of delegates rode the coattails of Northam.

17:28.23

Sam Shirazi

Democrats picked up a bunch of seats. 2021, a bunch of House Republicans were able to ride the coattails of Glenn Youngkin, and they were able to get a majority. So really unclear how much of a wave there’s going to be and then how much ticket splitting and riding of coattails there will be in these districts that, you know, it’s hard for me to make a prediction in some of these races.

17:48.78

Sam Shirazi

All right. I did want to talk about a couple other seats the Democrats are targeting. To be perfectly honest, I think at this stage, the Republicans have more of advantage in these districts. Doesn’t mean the Democrats can’t flip them on a really good night, but I think realistically, you you know unless there’s a really big blue wave, I think that the Republicans should be able to hold on.

18:09.51

Sam Shirazi

The first district is House District 66. The current Republican incumbent is Bobby Oroc, and he is being challenged by Democrat Nicole Cole. I think this was a Trump 2-3% district 2024.

18:22.52

Sam Shirazi

A little further down on 95, a little further from Northern Virginia, kind of a similar dynamic of persuasion and a little bit of turnout. I think the challenge Democrats are going to have in this district is Bobby Oroch’s been there a long time. So he’s a well-known incumbent.

18:36.68

Sam Shirazi

I think that will probably give him enough ticket splitting to survive, even if Spanberger is able to carry the seat at the top of the ticket. So I think this one of all you know of the seats, it’s probably the...

18:49.32

Sam Shirazi

one one of the ones that it’s most unlikely the Democrats are going to be able to flip. And then there’s one other seat that the Democrats are targeting. They kind of added this seat late. This is House District 34. It is in the Shenandoah Valley in Harrisonburg.

19:03.51

Sam Shirazi

And the Republican incumbent is Tony Wilt. He’s being challenged by Democrat Andrew Payton. I think this is the most Republican seat that the Democrats are challenging. It was about a hair a Trump plus seven seat in 2024.

19:17.62

Sam Shirazi

you know I think the Democrats are just hoping that, like in House District 41 in Virginia Tech, they’ this district is JMU, and they’re going to hope that they’re going to get same-day registration. College students are going to come out.

19:30.89

Sam Shirazi

They might be able to flip the seat. I think it’s just it’s hard because... A lot of red rural areas around there. And you know it’s just hard to know how many students are actually going to come out. in Are there going to be enough for the Democrats to be able to flip the seat? I think if there’s a really, really good night for the Democrats, potentially it’s going to happen. i just think you know given the polling, even the best case scenario pollal polling, I don’t think we’re kind of quite there yet where this seat will flip, but you never know. So definitely a seat to to watch out for on election night.

19:59.98

Sam Shirazi

All right, so I kind of went through all those districts pretty quickly because I didn’t want to kind of get too bogged down in any specific district. But big picture, as you can see, I mean, I think there’s a decent chance the Democrats are going to pick up at least two seats right off the bat. And so you’re seeing the Democrats get up to 53 seats in the House of Delegates.

20:18.13

Sam Shirazi

Then the question becomes, okay, of these much larger number of and this you know toss-up type seats, how many can the Democrats pick up? And you know if I had to guess, they’re going to pick up some of them. I don’t think...

20:30.63

Sam Shirazi

53 is going to be the ceiling for the Democrats. I think they they could get up to 55. And then the real question is, you know, how much of a red wave so or how much of a blue wave is there going to be? I mean, are they are we going to start seeing seats flip left and right to the point where the Democrats are getting up to 60 seats?

20:47.25

Sam Shirazi

I think it’s possible. There’s really no way of knowing right now because there’s kind of a range. you know I think if Spanberger wins by about 5%, we’re obviously on the lower end of what the Democrats are going to be able to pick up in the House of Delegates, maybe like 53.

21:02.40

Sam Shirazi

i think if there’s a really good night, Democrats winning by 10% or Spanberger is winning by 10% or more, that’s where we start getting into the 60-seat territory. And the Democrats are certainly playing to win a lot of seats. They’ve, as I mentioned, raised a lot of money.

21:17.33

Sam Shirazi

They’re spending a lot of money. The Republicans are definitely on defense. And I think in some of these races, they are throwing a decent amount of money at it. But some of these races, frankly, the Republicans are just telling the incumbents, you know, either we don’t think you’re going to make it. So sorry, you’re not getting much help. Or they’re telling the incumbents, you know i think you’ll be OK. You can handle it. And they’re not getting too much money.

21:39.38

Sam Shirazi

yeah know Republicans just don’t have the money in the House of Delegates to throw at these individual incumbents. And you know obviously, there’s been a lot going on with the attorney general spot on the ticket. And generally, that has been good news because there’s a chance that Jason Meares might be able to pull it out.

21:55.22

Sam Shirazi

the for the attorney general race. But that also means all the donors know that and all the donors are starting to give Meares a lot of money. And you know to a certain extent, that’s going to help him and it may help some of the House of Delegates candidates, but there isn’t a lot of money being spent on the House of Delegates because I think the mentality that Virginia Republicans have is we just got to save Meares because he’s pretty much the only one who can survive. And you know House of Delegates...

22:19.51

Sam Shirazi

We’re going to lose it anyways. you know We’ll probably... We might be able to pick some of these back up in another cycle. This cycle is just not the cycle where we can win the House of Delegates. So there’s no point in putting a lot of money into it.

22:30.86

Sam Shirazi

yeah They seem really focused on trying to get Meares over the line. And it makes sense to a certain extent. But I do think there’s a risk that the House Delegates starts getting really dicey for the Republicans. And you know we’ll see what happens.

22:43.88

Sam Shirazi

I think conversely, the Democrats... They’re feeling good about the House delegates. They want a big majority. i think that’s part of the message they want to send is picking up a lot of seats. Obviously, the more seats you have, the easier it is to pass bills.

22:55.88

Sam Shirazi

And so we’ll see. I mean, i again, we’ll we’ll defer to Chaz Nettie-Kohm on the individual predictions. My personal opinion is that the Democrats are going to be picking up seats. They’re going to retain their majority. And, you know, I talked about this all the way back in the beginning of the year.

23:12.75

Sam Shirazi

So the House of Delegates, it’s important for passing laws, obviously. But I think one thing that just has not gotten a lot of attention this year in Virginia has been these constitutional amendments.

23:21.97

Sam Shirazi

Because the governor doesn’t play a role. The lieutenant governor doesn’t play a role. The attorney general doesn’t play a role. The constitutional amendments in Virginia are purely the purview of the House of Delegates and the state senate. And the state senate is not up for election this year. It’s up for election in 2027.

23:37.23

Sam Shirazi

So the Democrats, if they win the House of Delegates, which is increasingly looking like it’s going to happen, they are going to put three constitutional amendments on the ballot for the voters to decide in 2026.

23:48.43

Sam Shirazi

One of them is on reproductive rights. One of them is on putting the ending the ban on same-sex marriage in the Virginia Constitution and protecting same-sex marriage in the Virginia Constitution. And one of them is to end the disenfranchisement of people convict convicted of felonies so that someone, when they’re released from prison, will automatically get their voting rights back.

24:09.17

Sam Shirazi

I think very likely those all three of those are going to be on the ballot in 2026 in Virginia because the Democrats are going to win the House of Delegates. Those are going to be important changes to the Virginia Constitution.

24:19.40

Sam Shirazi

And I do think... It doesn’t get a lot of attention, but that’s the reality is those things are going to be on the ballot in 2026, in all likelihood, given the Democrats are going to win the Virginia House of Delegates unless something really crazy happens.

24:34.16

Sam Shirazi

And I also think, you know, not to get too ahead of ourselves, but, you know, obviously, Democrats can start that process all over again for 2028. So if the Democrats win the House of Delegates this year in Virginia, they can start proposing new constitutional amendments for 2028. Now, they would have to win the 2027 elections, both the House of Delegates and the State Senate.

24:55.44

Sam Shirazi

But, you know, with Trump in the White House and the way Virginia swings against the party in the White House, I think there’s a decent chance Democrats are going to maintain their majority in the General Assembly in the 2027 elections.

25:06.88

Sam Shirazi

Obviously getting way ahead of ourselves. But I do think the reason I wanted to flag this is because... While there’s so much focus on the governor’s race, there’s so much focus on the attorney general’s race. Obviously, those races are important, but the House of Delegates is also really important.

25:19.86

Sam Shirazi

And House of Delegates, particularly in the constitutional amendment space, has more much more power or basically has all the power along with the state senate. So I don’t want people to lose sight of that. I don’t want people to lose sight of the stakes for the House of Delegates. you know it’s It’s easy to forget about them because is there’s so much going on.

25:36.41

Sam Shirazi

There’s stuff going on with Trump. There’s stuff going on with the shutdown. There’s stuff going on governor’s race. There’s stuff going on with the general race. But House of Delegates, super important and for constitutional amendments, but also just for passing regular old laws. And, you know, I do think those constitutional amendments are going to be important in 2026.

26:24.06

Sam Shirazi

But these things are important. And, you know, that’s why these elections are happening. I think there’s a lot of line in the Virginia elections. I will, I’m sure, talk a little bit more about the House of Delegates down the line. But, you know, there’s so much else to cover that it’s going to be hard for me to spend a whole episode again talking about it.

26:40.47

Sam Shirazi

But I did want to just do this one. Obviously, closer we get to election day, there’s a lot of stuff kind of go going on and I want to cover it all. But I did want to make time for this final check-in, I would say, at least for me personally on the House of Delegates.

26:53.70

Sam Shirazi

And I appreciate everyone who’s been listening. I will do my best to keep everyone updated. And this has been Federal Fallout and I’ll join you next time.

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