Hi, everyone. I’m Sam Shirazi, and this is Federal Fallout, the 2025 Virginia elections. This is a bonus episode where we will go over some breaking news about redistricting in Virginia and just try to unpack it.

00:12.93

Sam Shirazi

Now, to be perfectly honest, there’s a lot of unknowns right now, and I’m going to try to give everyone some answers to questions they might be having because the news has just come out. And obviously, we’re going to have to we’re gonna have to wait and see what happens. But I’ve seen a lot of people have questions, and I want to kind of explain as much as I can some of the reasons why what’s going on is going on. And then we can talk about what it might mean for redistricting in Virginia.

00:38.76

Sam Shirazi

And to be perfectly honest, I mean, this is just pretty crazy to think about another October surprise. i don’t think a lot of people saw this coming because my sense is it was kept pretty closely tight within the Democrats in the general assembly. And then obviously the news came out.

00:54.35

Sam Shirazi

We’ve had a lot going on in October in Virginia. This is just another thing that is going on. don’t, you know In theory, it could impact the election, to be perfectly honest. I don’t really think most voters are that tuned in where they’re really kind of following the nuances of this.

01:09.05

Sam Shirazi

So I don’t think it’s going to have a huge impact on the election here in 2025, but it could have a big impact in 2026 in the midterms. And so I wanted to kind of do this podcast just to give people an update.

01:19.95

Sam Shirazi

you know To be perfectly honest, i you know we’ll have to wait and see how it plays out. There’s a lot of unknowns right now. I’m going to do my best. So there’s so much going on in the Virginia elections that, you know, I’m going to try it to also do my best to also figure out what’s going on with redistricting. But but to be very perfectly honest, most of the next 12 days are going to be focused on the Virginia elections.

01:39.77

Sam Shirazi

And then we can talk about redistricting, depending on how it plays out. But I did want to do this. I want to give everyone a little bit of a primer about where we are. So big picture.

01:50.77

Sam Shirazi

At the beginning of the decade, Virginia, like every other state, redo their congressional maps because that is mandated every 10 years after the census comes out. In 2020, Virginia voters passed a independent redistricting commission.

02:05.76

Sam Shirazi

So the General Assembly did not draw the lines in Virginia. It was supposed to be drawn by the redistricting commission. Unfortunately, the redistricting commission was not able to do that because there was a lot of partisan issues. And long story short, redistricting commission did not draw the lines in Virginia. It got punted to the Virginia Supreme Court. They appointed two special masters. The special masters drew the lines.

02:28.36

Sam Shirazi

Currently, Virginia has a 6-5 Democratic delegation to the Congress. That means there are six Democrats from Virginia and five Republicans. so that’s kind of redistricting big picture in Virginia.

02:41.54

Sam Shirazi

Earlier this year in Texas, there was a big push to redistrict. They redrew their lines. That helped the the Republicans. Obviously, they benefited. They gained a a decent amount of seats.

02:51.88

Sam Shirazi

There’s been talk about redistricting in some other states. I think it’s already happened in Missouri. There’s talk about Indiana. There’s talk about other states. So the Republicans very clearly are trying to redraw the lines in several states because in their minds, it’s going to help get them some extra seats next year during the midterms.

03:07.98

Sam Shirazi

And obviously they’re they’re going to have an uphill climb to retain the House of Representatives in 2026, because typically the party that’s in the White House doesn’t do that well in the midterms. And so I think Republicans are expecting to probably lose some seats And so in their mind, if they’re able to redraw the maps in some states, that’ll help gain some more seats.

03:27.04

Sam Shirazi

There’s also been, I forgot, North Carolina as well, there’s been the maps being redrawn. So long story short, I mean Republicans are trying to get as many seats as they can to potentially deal with a rough midterm next year.

03:40.05

Sam Shirazi

And the Democrats have been a little bit slow to respond. I would say the only state where they’ve seriously responded is in California. So in California, There is a referendum on the ballot this November to try to temporarily change the maps in California because California also had a redistricting commission.

03:56.94

Sam Shirazi

It looks like almost certainly that redistricting amendment is going to pass in California. So the maps are going to change in California in all likelihood, and that’ll gain some seats for the Democrats, but it’s not going to make up for all the seats the Republicans are gaining.

04:09.94

Sam Shirazi

And so there’s been talk in other states like Maryland or Illinois about also redistricting. Long story short, there’s been a lot of kind of national conversation about redistricting. It kind of was kicked off by the Republicans redistricting in some states, and now the Democrats are trying to play catch up.

04:24.38

Sam Shirazi

And the question becomes, you know, what’s going on in Virginia? And in Virginia, just to give people... Some context, I did a podcast earlier in the year on this topic. To be perfectly honest, I didn’t think the Democrats were going to move forward with redistricting this quickly. I thought eventually they may think about some long-term changes to how redistricting is done in Virginia, try to change things before the 2030 census.

04:46.60

Sam Shirazi

I have my personal opinion about some of the problems with the redistricting commission in Virginia. There’s a lot of things that could be changed about how Virginia does its Redistricting. However, i was not expecting the Democrats to do anything quickly to change the maps in Virginia.

05:01.16

Sam Shirazi

However, theoretically, it was possible. And so what it seems what’s going on, at least what’s been reported, is the Democrats in the General Assembly are thinking about moving forward with changing the maps potentially before the 2026 midterms.

05:15.22

Sam Shirazi

And to give people context, so currently the Democrats have a majority in both the state Senate and the House of Delegates. It’s a narrow majority. So in the state Senate, they have 21-19 majority.

05:26.05

Sam Shirazi

In the House of Delegates, they have a 51-49 majority The House of Delegates, all 100 seats are up for election this year. In all likelihood, the Democrats are going to maintain their majority. And if anything, they’re going to expand the majority.

05:37.40

Sam Shirazi

So think the Democrats feel pretty good that they’re going to win the House of Delegates again this year. And so that’s kind of where we are in terms of you know the present. And so I think the question becomes, OK,

05:48.42

Sam Shirazi

Why are the Democrats doing this now? Because I’m getting that from a lot of people. Like, why, you know, 12 days before the election would you announce this? It’s obviously going to distract people from the state elections. It’s also potentially going to energize the Republicans. It could energize the Democrats, but it could energize the Republicans. So people are confused. Like, why is this happening right now?

06:07.28

Sam Shirazi

Well, there’s a very specific reason it’s happening right now. Under the Virginia Constitution, there is really only one way to change the Constitution. And remember, I said in 2020, 2020, voters passed a constitutional amendment to create the Redistricting Commission.

06:20.44

Sam Shirazi

And so in order for the maps to change in Virginia, there needs to be an amendment to the Virginia Constitution. And the only way to amend the Virginia Constitution is a pretty you know complex process, and I’ll just kind of lay it out.

06:34.02

Sam Shirazi

The way you amend the Virginia Constitution is, first, the General Assembly, the House of Delegates in the State Senate pass an initial version or the initial, the first time they pass a bill saying there’s gonna be a referendum to amend the constitution.

06:48.43

Sam Shirazi

So that happens in one year. The Virginia constitution says there has to be an election for the House of Delegates in between So what that means is there has to be another election before there can be a referendum. So in other words, Democrats have to do this before the election, there needs to be an election, and then the Democrats need to do it again next year. So you have to do it two years in a row with an election in between.

07:13.89

Sam Shirazi

So that’s basically a long way of saying the way you amend the cup Virginia Constitution General Assembly passes it. There’s an election. General Assembly passes it again. And then it goes to the voters and the voters get the ultimate say.

07:25.22

Sam Shirazi

And so in order for there to be a potential constitutional referendum next year on the red redistricting in Virginia, it has to happen before the election. And so that’s why the Democrats are doing this right now.

07:37.45

Sam Shirazi

Now, you could argue the Democrats waited till the last minute. And so it’s not really giving voters a whole lot of notice about this. i think part of the idea about having the election in between is so that voters can maybe decide whether they want this or not. But long story short, Virginia Democrats, they have a very short timeframe to get this done.

07:55.75

Sam Shirazi

They would have to do it in the next 12 days. So let’s just assume you know they do this. They pass it in the next 12 days, the initial version they would have to win the elections this year for the House of Delegates. So it doesn’t it doesn’t matter what happens with the governor, doesn’t matter what happens with lieutenant governor, or even really attorney general. Basically, this is all down to the House of Delegates.

08:16.90

Sam Shirazi

And remember, the state senate is not up for election. Democrats already control the state senate. So what would happen is, Democrats pass the bill once, they win the House of Delegates elections this year, which seems pretty likely. And then...

08:28.68

Sam Shirazi

They would have to come back in January and they would have to pass the bill again in order to have the referendum. So if they pass it in January, the Virginia Constitution then says there can be a referendum within 90 days. So it can’t be the next day. It has to be within 90 days.

08:44.36

Sam Shirazi

So that means, let’s say you pass something in January. Theoretically, the referendum could be in April. So that’s kind of the timeline. Democrats pass it in the next 12 days. They win the House of Delegates. They pass it again in January.

08:56.13

Sam Shirazi

And then in 90 days, they do a referendum in April. And so that is all the steps that would need to be taken in order for there to be a change to the Virginia Constitution so Democrats could redistrict in 2026.

09:09.20

Sam Shirazi

Now, that’s already a lot. and And again, this is assuming the voters pass it. The voters could say no, they could reject it. I think what the Virginia Democrats are seeing is they’re seeing what’s going on in California. They’re seeing that the California Democrats look like they’re going to be able to pass this thing.

09:25.12

Sam Shirazi

And so maybe the the Virginia Democrats are thinking, you know, we’re going to be able to pass it too. Now, keep in mind, Virginia is a lot less blue than California. So maybe they’re miscalculating. But long story short, let’s assume the voters end up passing this in 2026. What happens then?

09:40.98

Sam Shirazi

So the problem is the maps have to be redrawn and the primary is typically in June in Virginia. And so that’s going to be very quick turnaround and all of that stuff.

09:53.91

Sam Shirazi

There has been talk that maybe the date of the primary will be changed. In theory, maybe you could change the date of the filing deadline, but all that would require laws being passed.

10:04.55

Sam Shirazi

You don’t need to amend the Virginia Constitution to do all that. You would just need to pass laws changing the date of the primary. And you know honestly, I haven’t thought through all of this. I mean, I’m sure there were some legal pitfalls. I’m sure it’s complicated. I’m sure it’s not that easy to get all this stuff done.

10:22.77

Sam Shirazi

And i think that’s been kind of but the initial reaction that it’s going to take a lot of specific things have to happen in order for this redistricting to happen in 2026. I think, you know, my personal opinion is I think the Virginia Democrats are probably not going to want to do something drastic change to Virginia redistricting for the rest of time. They’re going to kind of do the California way where California basically said, this is an exception just till the end of the decade for these next few elections because the Republicans in Republican states gerrymandered their maps.

10:52.74

Sam Shirazi

We in California have a exception toward normal redistricting where we will basically redraw our maps for the next few elections. I think the Virginia Democrats likely will go down that route.

11:04.70

Sam Shirazi

In theory, in 2028, they could do a different referendum to change long term the way the maps are drawn in Virginia. But at least for the referendum, if it’s going to happen in 2026, the likelihood that it’s going to succeed will really come down to it being more of a temporary measure. Because I think if you just try to completely repeal nonpartisan or or you you repeal the independent redistricting commission, I think it’s going to be very difficult to get that passed. So long story short, I think this will be a short term change to redistricting for the next few cycles.

11:37.24

Sam Shirazi

And then the question becomes, you know what do the maps look like? I think you know if the Democrats are going to go through all this hassle, you know my my gut is telling me they’re going to try to redraw the maps to in order to get three more seats.

11:49.90

Sam Shirazi

Now, if they’re cautious, they could redraw it to only get two more seats. But again, i think you know if you’re going through all this hassle, you might as well try to get as much as you can. So I think it’s possible for the Democrats to draw 9-2 map.

12:02.90

Sam Shirazi

for virginia So that means nine Democrats, two Republicans. Currently, there are six Democrats, five Republicans. So that would be a three-seat pickup for the Democrats. Frankly, I don’t think it’s that hard to draw 9-2 map.

12:15.14

Sam Shirazi

I think that would it would it be compliant with the Voting Rights Act. You could... you know Just play around a little bit. Essentially, all the Republicans would have left would be a district based in southwest and southside Virginia, and then they probably have a district based in the Shenandoah Valley and central Virginia.

12:32.69

Sam Shirazi

And then every every other district could basically be you know parts of northern Virginia, parts of Richmond, parts of Hampton Roads. You know, people have played around with it. I’ve played around with it. It’s not that complicated to come up with a 9-2 map.

12:45.40

Sam Shirazi

You know, if if they’re being cautious and they don’t want to go too crazy, they could draw an 8-3 map. But again, if you’re going through all this hassle, you might as well kind of do it do it to the max. So, I mean, that’s all this stuff going on in Virginia.

12:59.04

Sam Shirazi

Obviously, a lot of open questions, a lot of question marks from... The starting point, I mean, do do the Virginia Democrats have the votes in the General Assembly? Because they have very narrow majorities.

13:11.02

Sam Shirazi

As I mentioned, you you know they can’t lose anyone on either in either chamber. Presumably, you know theyre they they should be somewhat unified if they’re going to be bringing this out into the public. So it’s hard for me to imagine they don’t have the votes. But obviously, and we’ve seen in some of the Republican states, there’s been pushback. And it’s possible that the Virginia Democrats to begin with don’t get the votes. So that would kind of kill it this year.

13:34.80

Sam Shirazi

I think if it passes this year, you know it’s likely to pass next year. I mean, theoretically, if the Democrats don’t win the House of Delegates this year, which I think is relatively unlikely, it could not pass in the General Assembly next year. i think I think almost certainly Democrats are on track to win the House of Delegates. So...

13:51.52

Sam Shirazi

Anyway, so the other thing that could trip them up is potentially the voters just saying no, that they could lose the referendum next year. Again, you know that’s kind of a long ways off. The other thing too, some of the nuances about passing a law and changing the potential primary date, all that stuff would have to go through like regular legislation.

14:13.82

Sam Shirazi

And that does involve the governor. So open question whether Spanberger would be on board with some of this stuff if she ends up winning. Obviously, she she’d have to win the governor’s race, but that’s kind of how it’s looking right now.

14:24.85

Sam Shirazi

The other thing are the legal challenges. i mean, obviously, there’s going to be complicated stuff going on. Almost all of these redistricting efforts in other states have led to lawsuits. Most of them have been unsuccessful, but there are lawsuits.

14:37.46

Sam Shirazi

And actually, you know, talking about the attorney general race, Potentially, if there’s a lawsuit, you know it’s an open question, what is the next attorney general going to do? Obviously, if Jason Meyers wins re-election, he could decide he’s not going to defend any of this.

14:51.77

Sam Shirazi

Obviously, if Jay Jones wins the attorney general race, he was much more likely to defend what the Democrats are doing, or almost certainly going to defend what the Democrats are doing. And Virginia Supreme Court, it is an interesting judicial body. it is It tends to be nonpartisan. So I think it’s hard to read how they would handle cases. It’s not like they are hacks. I think everyone in Virginia, Democrats and Republicans, generally respects the Virginia Supreme Court. I think they try to be independent.

15:21.57

Sam Shirazi

they They have a reputation for being little c legal conservative, so they are not you know necessarily super progressive judges, but it doesn’t mean that they will go along with whatever the Republicans want them to. They are not those types of you know big C conservative judges.

15:37.48

Sam Shirazi

So long story short, I mean, a lot a lot of unknowns. I think it’s a big surprise that this happened. I personally didn’t think the Democrats were necessarily on board. I think my guess is They have been seeing what’s going on both at the governor’s level and in the House of Delegates.

15:54.06

Sam Shirazi

They felt pretty confident they’re gonna win the governor’s race. They feel pretty confident they’re gonna win the House of Delegates. They’ve been looking at what’s going on in California where it looks like the redistricting amendment’s gonna pass easily. And so they’re thinking, you know why don’t we do this in Virginia? We can pick up three seats.

16:07.92

Sam Shirazi

I think that would make it a lot easier for the Democrats to win the House of Representatives in 2026. So definitely a lot on the line for redistricting in Virginia. i will do my best to keep everyone updated. Like I said, to be perfectly honest, there’s so much going on with the election. it’s just It’s been a crazy October in Virginia, and it just keeps coming.

16:30.32

Sam Shirazi

I hope this kind of answers some of the questions people have. I mean, I don’t have every single answer, but my goal is to kind of explain what’s going on, explain how this might happen.

16:41.40

Sam Shirazi

It is a complicated process. There are a lot of road bumps. It doesn’t mean that it’s going to happen. But this has been kind of the first indication that Democrats might be going there in Virginia. We’ll have to just keep an eye on it. you know Again, I doubt it’s going to actually impact the election because the people who are in the know enough to actually understand what’s going on with the redistricting are probably pretty engaged voters, and they’ve probably already made up their mind one way or another. So...

17:08.19

Sam Shirazi

I don’t actually see it impacting the election that much. However, obviously, Republicans are trying to use this to say, you know, Democrats shouldn’t change the maps. Democrats, my guess is Spanberger and the other Democrats are going to probably not want to focus on this. They just want to get the votes done and then focus on the election.

17:24.80

Sam Shirazi

You know, we’ll see how it actually plays out in the closing days of the campaign. There’s a lot going on. There’s a shutdown. There’s, you know, all the stuff coming out of DC. So hard to know how much of an impact this is going to have.

17:38.00

Sam Shirazi

i will try to keep, keep doing my best to cover it all. There’s so much going on in Virginia. i appreciate everyone who’s been listening. There will be a lot of podcasts coming out. I hope people find them useful. They’re going to be covering all the different things going on in Virginia. And yeah, so stay tuned. Never a dull moment in the Virginia elections. I appreciate everyone who’s been listening. This has been federal fallout and I’ll join you next time.

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