Are tariffs here to stay or not? That was the hot topic at New York Toy Fair 2025, and trust me—it’s still got the toy industry buzzing. In Q1 of 2025, the Trump administration announced a 20% tariff on Chinese imports, and with 80% of all toys made in China, manufacturers, retailers, and consumers are all bracing for impact.

So, who's really going to absorb these extra costs? Will factories take the hit? Will retailers adjust their pricing? Or will consumers end up paying the price?

Inspired by a thought-provoking LinkedIn post from Mike Searls, founder of Thin Air Brands, we sat down for a post-Toy Fair deep dive into how these tariffs will shake up the toy industry. Mike brings over 30 years of experience to the conversation, and he’s seen the industry survive some major shake-ups before. 

In this chat Mike breaks down:

🔥 Why Chinese factories can’t absorb the tariffs, and what that means for production

🛒 How major retailers are pivoting their strategies to stay competitive

⚖️ If companies should rush their products to market before the tariffs take full effect

🔍 Shifting buyer patterns at Toy Fair 2025

This episode is part of our New York Toy Fair Interview Series, our conversation ends with a closer look at the recent show. Find out what might you expect from Toy Fair moving forward, by hitting play on this episode.

Listen For These Important Moments

• [02:31] – Meet my guest, Mike Searls, founder of ThiN AiR Brands. With over 30 years in the toy industry, he’s seen it all and is here to break it down.
• [03:43] – The toy industry isn’t all fun and games. Mike shares what really goes on behind the scenes and why competition is tougher than it looks.
• [09:38] – Mike breaks down how tariffs impact different players—from factories to retailers to consumers—and who’s going to take the biggest hit.
• [16:33] – What happens next? Mike shares his predictions on pricing, supply chains, and how companies can adjust to stay ahead.
• [21:36] – Why can’t we just manufacture toys in the U.S.? Mike explains why it’s not that simple and what businesses should know before considering a move.
• [24:24] – We discuss how toy companies can adapt, rethink pricing, and adjust strategies to survive and thrive.
• [26:12] – Mike shares how he’s handled past crises like COVID and 9/11, and what toy businesses can do to prepare for the unexpected.
• [28:05] – Is New York Toy Fair still worth it? Mike shares how the show is changing, why specialty buyers are taking over, and what that means for exhibitors.
• [33:50] – E-commerce is growing, but brick-and-mortar still matters. We discuss why in-store shopping is key for toy sales and how businesses should balance both.
• [37:03] – Before we wrap, Mike shares his best advice for toy entrepreneurs, including why having a strong product pipeline is a must for long-term success.

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