Bob Moats and Mike Wiemuth examine how the transfer portal and NIL have fundamentally altered the landscape for mid-major teams and their ability to pull off NCAA tournament upsets.

[0:00-5:00] Introduction & Producer Welcome

• Introduction of new producer William McDermott
• Discussion of recent Indy 500 race
• Setup for main topic on March Madness becoming "less mad"

[5:00-15:00] The Old Formula for Mid-Major Upsets

• Analysis of Mercer's 2014 upset victory over Duke as the archetypal example
• Two key historical advantages identified:
• Experience advantage: Mercer's starting five had 20 years combined college experience vs Duke's 10 years
• Roster continuity: Four of Mercer's starters played together since 2012 (90+ games as a unit) vs Duke's 14 games together
• Historical pattern of upsets featuring experienced, cohesive mid-major teams against talent-heavy but inexperienced major programs

[15:00-30:00] Transfer Portal's Devastating Impact on Mid-Majors

• Stark statistics: 80% of quality mid-major players (starters averaging 10+ PPG) now transfer up
• Conference-by-conference breakdown:
• Southern Conference: Only 1 of 11 top returning players staying
• Missouri Valley Conference: Just 3 of 15 top players returning (80% bleed rate)
• The "dual challenge": Mid-majors lose their best players while also losing potential replacements to major programs

[30:00-40:00] The New Minor League Reality

• Mid-majors now function as a development system for power conferences
• Power conference coaches no longer need to gamble on unproven recruits
• Can simply observe and poach players who prove themselves at lower levels

[40:00-50:00] Alternative Models for Future Success

• "Ocean's Eleven" approach: Assembling rosters from multiple transfer sources (Indiana State 2024 example)
• Coach-led transfers: Bringing entire successful programs up levels (Ben McCollum at Drake example)
• Systematic advantages through coaching and scheme rather than talent accumulation

[50:00-55:00] Looking Forward & Market Adaptation

• Recognition that upsets will become increasingly rare
• Alternative postseason opportunities like NIT may gain importance
• College basketball still in flux with final competitive equilibrium yet to be established

The episode ultimately suggests that while the magic of March may be diminishing, mid-major programs that can adapt to this new reality may still find ways to compete—just not in the same David vs. Goliath fashion that made college basketball's greatest upsets so memorable.

Resources:

George Martin : https://youtu.be/h3AY1CVUgJw?si=JQRdg3o2zh7bQkzM

Delta force theme Indy 500: https://youtu.be/CSzgwCql_mo?si=X8_eZQgvLUNhRwED

Sam Posey: https://youtu.be/8I7gKuoEMCM?si=1sXoeRtSeZh0tfLg

Boom Baby: https://youtu.be/xRXScx4gsYk?si=zJkZ17XDiwCKuwZt

Wonder Indiana: https://blog.library.in.gov/wander-indiana-let-your-wanderin-spirit-come-on-thru/

Mercer: https://youtu.be/oNWe8kqBRlg?si=rd-Kj6oW_TncPaUP

Lehigh: https://youtu.be/06c1eOgZQeo?si=xuptNn-XPkR55hFZ

Oceans 11: https://youtu.be/imm6OR605UI?si=lFwM-60fR4Glp8zM

Original Oceans 11: https://youtu.be/ppVby97BNiw?si=xqTcDBbfNUbREbIb

The End (Beatles): https://youtu.be/12R4FzIhdoQ?si=HjosVjomRxmIgHqN

Her Majesty (Beatles): https://youtu.be/12R4FzIhdoQ?si=EP5GhjVo9e0zeKEi

Mid Major Donor Article 

Insights from Top NIL Supporters at the Group of 5 Level

Seed Records

Records for every seed in March Madness from 1985 to 2025

Mid Major Viability Article

No One Mourns the Mid-Majors: Can Mid-Major Schools Survive Under the House v. NCAA Settlement Agreement, or is College Athletics Destined to Downsize? — Kentucky Law Journal

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