Bob Moats and Mike Wiemuth break down how player compensation is forcing coaches and programs to think like Billy Beane, analyzing roster construction through the lens of buying wins instead of just buying players.

IU's Hot Start & The Omar Cooper Parallel

The guys open celebrating IU's 4-0 start under Darian DeVries while drawing parallels between miracle plays in football and basketball. Finding ways to win isn't just about spectacular moments—it's about putting yourself in position through smart aggregation of talent and data.

• Omar Cooper's impossible catch as a "games of inches" lesson

• IU rising in metrics by beating predictors

• Conerway's passing, Wilkerson's elite shooting on display

• Penn State fans still bewildered in grocery stores

The Moneyball Framework for College Basketball

Mike and Bob lay out how the classic "Moneyball" approach translates to today's NIL-driven college basketball landscape, where buying wins through buying points is the new reality.

• The key quote: "Your goal shouldn't be to buy players. Your goal should be to buy wins."

• One-seed teams need roughly 540+ point margin over opponents for the season

• Box Plus Minus (BPM) as the "on-base percentage" of basketball

• IU's last 500+ point variance seasons: 2013, 1993, 1992, 1990

Finding Undervalued Talent

The hosts identify the statistical thresholds and player types that offer the best return on investment in the portal and recruiting landscape.

• Players with 5.0+ BPM at mid-majors show "stickiness" when jumping to Power Five

• Elite one-seed starters average 8.7 BPM (roughly Yogi Ferrell level or better)

• 85% of one-seed starters have 6.0+ BPM

• The "Lance Jones bump" - finding best player on mediocre team who can elevate

• Target the Mountain West, A-10, and top mid-majors for 5+ BPM players

The Money Problem: Who's Overpaying?

Bob and Mike examine which programs are spending wisely versus which are trapped by their own wealth, using real scenarios to show how compensation complicates roster building.

• Example: $3M five-star with 3.0 BPM vs. $1.7M A-10 POY with 6.8 BPM

• The "hammer looking for nails" problem when you have too much money

• Ohio State's Anthony Thompson situation: Overspend or necessary premium?

• Why 50% of one-seed starters now come from the portal

• BYU reportedly paying AJ Dybantsa $5-7M - only 3-5 schools can compete

The New Three-Dimensional Reality

The compensation era adds a third dimension to roster construction that constrains even wealthy programs and creates new strategic challenges.

• Pre-NIL: Two-dimensional (program fit + player development)

• Post-NIL: Three-dimensional (add budget constraints)

• Top NIL programs creating their own pressure traps

• Market correction concerns: "Is that guy still worth $7M after a 25% correction?"

• Underground economy going public usually lowers prices—this did the opposite

Coming up: A rivalry show with Everything College Basketball's Josh and Peyton Burton (UK and UL fans), plus an extended film room session with Tony Adragna and Brian Tonsoni breaking down DeVries' system.

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Bob Moats and Mike Wiemuth assess which college basketball coaches are playing with house money and which are one bad loss away from the unemployment line in today's volatile college hoops landscape.

IU's Dominant Debut

The Hoosiers opened the Darian DeVries era with a statement win, completely eliminating mid-range jumpers in favor of modern offense. Bob breaks down film showing the conceptual principles that make this system fundamentally different from the past decade.

• Zero mid-range jumpers: the long two is officially dead at IU

• Tucker DeVries diving into opponent's bench, Conway's elite passing

• Rose 9 spots in KenPom after demolishing Alabama A&M

The Chip Stack Framework

Bob and Mike introduce their coaching evaluation model that replaces the outdated "four-year plan." In the portal era, coaches are playing Texas Hold'em, not building dynasties.

• Why the 4-year grace period is dead - it's all-in poker now

• The five tiers of success and where programs expect to be

• The "Earl Bruce Syndrome" - stuck at 20 wins with no upside

Coaches in Serious Danger

Four high-profile coaches face make-or-break seasons with dwindling chip stacks. From Carolina to Rutgers to Kansas State, these are the hot seats getting hotter by the day.

• Hubert Davis at UNC: From Final Four to 15-20, lost key transfers

• Steve Pikiell at Rutgers: The five-star experiment backfired badly

• Jerome Tang at Kansas State: Can't recapture year-one magic

• John Calipari at Arkansas: The perpetual talent churn continues

On Thin Ice & High Stakes

The guys examine coaches ranging from Butler's Thad Matta (stabilization hire gone stale) to Vanderbilt's Mark Byington (skipping levels on the way up). Plus, why football budgets are now eating basketball money at dual-sport schools.

• Micah Shrewsbury's boring Notre Dame after Penn State's offensive genius

• Porter Moser trapped in the Earl Bruce 20-win zone

• Mark Byington's high-risk, high-reward Vanderbilt entertainment

• Why midseason firings are the new normal

Coming up: A Moneyball conversation about roster construction in the NIL era and a potential IU-Kentucky-Louisville preview with Everything College Basketball.

On the mics: Bob Moats and Mike Wiemuth

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Bob Moats and Mike Wiemuth are back to preview the 2025-26 college basketball season, diving deep into IU's transformed roster under first-year coach Darian DeVries and analyzing the landscape of college hoops in the NIL era. Even with football still riding high in Bloomington, it's time to turn attention to the hardwood.

Segment 1: The Big Money Conversation

The hosts discuss the seismic shifts in recruiting and compensation:

• Cignetti's $3 million raise and IU football's impact on the athletic department
• Ohio State reportedly paying Anthony Thompson $3+ million while their head coach makes $2.5 million
• Why IU's "whiff" on Thompson was actually smart strategy
• The psychology of the hot seat driving desperate roster decisions

Segment 2: Indiana Basketball Deep Dive - The DeVries System

Bob and Mike break down what makes DeVries' approach fundamentally different:

Offensive Evolution

• Pick-and-roll revolution with multiple skilled ball handlers creating unpredictability
• Screener deception making the screener a weapon again
• The passing upgrade: Two players with 30%+ assist rates (first time in 15 years)
• Conceptual principles vs. rigid sets from the past decade

The Defense Question

• West Virginia's top-20 defense proves DeVries can scheme effectively
• Tucker DeVries as a "free safety" goading turnovers
• Why size concerns about IU's bigs might be overblown

Roster Construction

• Experience over elite talent: The sweet spot model in action
• Team chemistry from players who've already played together
• Translatable skills from mid-majors to high-majors

Segment 3: Big Ten and National Landscape

• Purdue: Highest floor in the country but ceiling questions remain with Braden Smith's penetration limitations
• Houston: Kelvin Sampson's shocking three five-star haul after landing just two in 17 years
• Michigan: Portal royalty additions but can Elliot Cadeau finally live up to his potential?
• Kentucky & Louisville: Pope's spending spree vs. Pat Kelsey's three-point shooting arsenal that could set records
• Illinois: "The Belgrade of the Corn Belt" with multiple Balkan players including both Visic brothers
• Iowa & Minnesota: The Battle of the Drake Boys - seven former Drake players split between IU and Iowa as the Big Ten moves away from traditional Painter/Izzo/Bo Ryan models

Segment 4: The Clarity Problem - NIL Era Questions

• Big schools now poaching from each other (70% to 30% flip in three years)
• The $12-15 million championship roster question
• Sweet spot vs. superstar models after Florida's unconventional title run
• Economic limits forcing strategic choices even at major programs

Bob and Mike promise more Moneyball conversations about roster construction, an upcoming chat with author William Murphy about IU basketball history, and continued analysis as DeVries' system meets Big Ten competition.

On the mics: Bob Moats and Mike Wiemuth

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X's and Joe's Episode 40: Data vs Drama - A View of Modern Recruiting

Bob Moats and Mike Wiemuth welcome special guest Stephen Ragsdale, creator of IURecruiting.com, for a deep dive into how data-driven analysis can cut through the emotional chaos of following college basketball recruiting.

Meet Stephen Ragsdale and IURecruiting.com

[00:00-17:00]

Stephen introduces himself as a third-generation IU fan who turned his Excel spreadsheet tracking into a comprehensive recruiting website. His journey from casual follower to creator of IURecruiting.com stemmed from wanting better tools to understand the recruiting process. The conversation touches on early season optimism around IU basketball, with Trent Sisley's viral shot from above Five Guys on Kirkwood symbolizing a new era of offensive philosophy under Darren DeVries.

The Recruiting Bingo Card

[17:00-30:00]

Mike unveils his famous "Recruiting Miss Bingo Card" - a collection of predictable fan responses that appear on message boards after every recruiting loss. Classics include "We don't want him anyway," "This just proves we don't cheat," and "I only want kids who want to play for IU." The group discusses how these responses transcend fanbases, with Stephen noting Purdue fans' fixation on the cheating angle and Notre Dame supporters emphasizing academic standards. The card highlights how fans often rationalize losses by suggesting the coach nearly made a catastrophic mistake, but thankfully the recruit had the sense to go elsewhere.

The Recruiting Funnel Framework

[30:00-45:00]

Mike introduces the corporate HR recruiting funnel model adapted for college basketball. Using Kansas's 2019 recruitment of Jalen Wilson as a case study, he demonstrates how successful programs move from many offers (10) to fewer official visits (3) to one commitment. The concept of "traction" becomes crucial - can you get elite kids interested enough to visit? Stephen shares how this framework was eye-opening for him, shifting his perspective from Mike Woodson's "fall in love with one target" approach to understanding roster building as a numbers game requiring multiple irons in the fire.

IURecruiting.com Deep Dive

[45:00-75:00]

Stephen walks through his website's functionality, showing how it tracks offers, visits, and commitments across multiple recruiting classes and positions. The tool includes funnel comparisons with Kentucky, Kansas, and Arkansas - three programs with distinctly different recruiting philosophies. Key insights emerge about IU's 2026 recruiting:

• Strong conversion rates at center position (3 visits from 6 offers)

• Limited point guard targeting mirroring industry-wide trends toward portal guards

• Critical Anthony Thompson recruitment coming down to IU vs Ohio State

• The site reveals patterns that individual recruit tracking misses

The discussion highlights how Bill Self casts the widest net with offers while someone like Coach K was more selective, and how understanding these different approaches helps contextualize IU's strategy.

The Modern Recruiting Landscape

[75:00-End]

The group examines how recruiting has fundamentally changed with the portal era. Key observations:

• Elite programs like Florida, Louisville, and Michigan now build rosters with 1-2 elite high school players and multiple high-end portal transfers

• Point guard positions especially skew toward experienced portal additions rather than 18-year-old freshmen

• International recruiting (IU's two Yugoslav players) represents another talent stream

• The "win first, then recruit" fallacy gets debunked - you need elite talent to win, not vice versa

Mike provides critical context about the Moneyball aspect of NIL: five-star freshmen rarely saturate winning metrics like Box Plus Minus. Only four five-stars made the top 50 nationally in BPM last season (Cooper Flagg, Khaman Maluach, Kon Knueppel, and VJ Edgecombe). The sweet spot kids and elite transfers dominate those leaderboards, suggesting programs should be more strategic about where they invest NIL dollars.

The episode concludes with cautious optimism about DeVries's early recruiting indicators and why the Anthony Thompson recruitment looms as a key test.

On the mics: Bob Moats, Mike Wiemuth, and special guest Stephen Ragsdale

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As IU football has reached heights not seen in generations, so too has the mood of the IU fanbase. Bob Moats and Mike Wiemuth sit down with Ryan Phillips to discuss the change in vibes experienced by fans of the long suffering Hoosier program.

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IU football just went from “pinch me” to “prove it.” Bob Moats and Mike Wiemuth sit down with Galen Clavio to unpack the Hoosiers’ rapid rise—how it happened, what it means, and how a long-suffering fanbase should handle success. Then we zoom out: the decades-old cultural tug-of-war between the North and South and how it fuels the Big Ten vs. SEC battle for the soul of college football.

What you’ll hear

“Was it real?”—reliving last season and why fans should savor this run, not fear it.

How IU’s surge compressed the “honeymoon” timeline and turbocharged recruiting in Year 2.

The North vs. South culture clash: narratives, talent pipelines, and why media/TV incentives shape the conversation.

Chapters (approx.)

00:00 Cold open

11:30 “Was it real?” + savoring the moment

23:45 Recruiting & the accelerated timeline

49:50 Big Ten vs. SEC culture war

1:19:05 TV money, media narratives, and power dynamics

About the show

Hosted by Bob Moats and Mike Wiemuth, X’s & Joe’s blends data, history, and a little Hoosier heart. Today’s guest: Galen Clavio.

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Bob Moats and Mike Wiemuth examine the beloved mythology of in-state recruiting, exploring whether building championship teams with local talent is still viable in modern college basketball.

Puerto Rico Recap & Recruiting Updates

[00:00-15:00]

Bob and Mike discuss IU's successful exhibition trip to Puerto Rico, highlighting impressive performances and what the games revealed about the team's offensive potential. They also touch on the busy recruiting landscape, upcoming visits, and how the new coaching staff is filling their recruiting pipeline with diverse targets across multiple positions.

The Dorothy Complex

[15:00-30:00]

Using "The Wizard of Oz" as a framework, Bob and Mike dive into the mythology surrounding in-state recruiting. They identify three distinct versions of the argument:

• The extreme position: Load up on as many in-state kids as possible
• The moderate approach: Swap in a few three-star locals at the margins
• The observational stance: Frustration over missing elite in-state prospects

The discussion explores whether kids even want to stay home anymore, given changing family backgrounds and transplant populations.

The Numbers Game

[30:00-45:00]

Mike presents data showing Indiana's changing talent production compared to basketball hotbeds like Georgia and Texas. Key revelations include how Indiana now produces only 2-3 top 100 players annually versus seven in peak years, and the geographic shift of elite talent toward the South and Southwest. The conversation covers population migration, infrastructure changes, and why the "inexhaustible pool" theory no longer holds.

Modern Coaching Realities

[45:00-60:00]

Bob examines what coaches actually consider when balancing in-state versus national recruiting, using Matt Painter's Purdue model as a case study. Topics include:

• System-based recruiting versus talent acquisition
• The "who can you get" factor in roster construction
• How the transfer portal changes long-term planning
• Why relationships with local coaches still matter

Championship Blueprints

[60:00-75:00]

Analysis of national championship rosters reveals that 85% of starters over the past 25 years were from out-of-state. Even programs in talent-rich areas like Virginia had zero in-state starters on their title team. The discussion examines whether building around local talent is mathematically feasible for championship contention.

Indiana's Path Forward

[75:00-End]

Bob and Mike conclude with strategies for maintaining in-state connections while pursuing elite talent nationally. Topics include using walk-on programs strategically, staying visible in local communities, and why the current coaching staff's diverse recruiting approach makes sense for IU's championship aspirations.

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Bob Moats and Mike Wiemuth are joined by Scott Caulfield of Crimson Cast to examine the Big Ten's championship drought, exploring why the conference has failed to produce an NCAA basketball champion since Michigan in 1989.

Main Topics

Scott's Origin Story & Bloomington Memories

[00:00-15:00]

Scott shares his unlikely journey from New York City to small-town Bloomington and the formative experiences of growing up around IU's campus. Stories include legendary arcade haunts, meeting Galen at the campus radio station, and surviving Bob Knight's actual college class - complete with unforgettable encounters that reveal Knight's intimidating presence up close.

One Shining Moment Obsession

[15:00-30:00]

Scott reveals his decades-long ritual of recording and analyzing every One Shining Moment video since the early 1990s. The conversation explores:

• Why this montage is unique in all of sports

• How production values have evolved over the years

• What the footage reveals about which conferences actually matter in March

• The painful reality of Big Ten representation in recent years

The Numbers Don't Lie

[30:00-45:00]

A data deep-dive into Big Ten tournament performance since 1987 reveals a troubling pattern of near-misses and missed opportunities. The discussion examines whether the conference's multiple championship game appearances represent bad luck or something more systemic about Big Ten basketball.

Coaching & Conference Leadership

[45:00-60:00]

Questions about the Big Ten's coaching hierarchy and whether the conference has the leadership to compete with other major conferences.

Topics include:

• Tom Izzo's role as unofficial conference dean

• Resistance to modern changes like NIL and transfer portal

• How other conferences are embracing younger, more adaptable coaches

• Whether the Big Ten needs a changing of the guard

The Talent Gap

[60:00-75:00]

Eye-opening recruiting data reveals stark differences between Big Ten rosters and championship-caliber teams from other conferences. The analysis covers geographic talent distribution, position-specific recruiting challenges, and why the conference continues to lose homegrown stars to programs outside the Midwest.

Indiana's Championship Window

[75:00-End]

Scott makes the case for why Indiana might be uniquely positioned to break the Big Ten's championship drought. The conversation covers the program's potential advantages in the modern college basketball landscape and whether IU can finally give Big Ten fans something to celebrate in One Shining Moment.

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Bob Moats and Mike Wiemuth field listener questions on a range of sports and non-sports topics to fill the summer dead period in college basketball, covering everything from bison merchandise to movie recommendations.

Main Topics

Summer Check-ins & Countdown Clock

[00:00-15:00]

Bob and Mike catch up on summer travels - Bennett's first beach trip and chocolate-fueled Hershey Park adventures. Mike reveals they're officially under 30 days until college football kickoff. They also plug Perry Metz's YouTube channel featuring digitized classic media interviews from the 70s and 80s.

Bison Merchandise & Black Uniform Debate

[15:00-25:00]

Questions about the bison costume unveiling (August 30th against Old Dominion) and Homefield Apparel's early merchandise drop. The conversation shifts to IU's relationship with black uniforms, including memories of the infamous 1997 disaster against Kentucky and why black works for both traditionalists and recruits.

Tony's Coaching Questions

[25:00-45:00]

Jokes about Tony Adragna’s "massive NIL resources" at Greenwood Christian Academy lead to discussions about championship expectations. Questions about whether recruits automatically get ranking boosts after committing to major programs spark analysis of causation vs. correlation in recruiting rankings.

IU Roster Deep Dive

[45:00-65:00]

Detailed breakdown of how IU's wing rotation might work with multiple versatile players. Discussion covers why the program didn't pursue another traditional center more aggressively, examining DeVries' offensive philosophy and the constraints of roster building in the portal era.

Basketball Philosophy Questions

[65:00-85:00]

Debates over NCAA tournament expansion and whether Bob Knight's motion offense could work in the modern game. Topics include shot clock constraints, the evolution of dribble penetration, and how defensive adjustments have changed offensive spacing.

Movies & Random Fun

[85:00-End]

The episode lightens up with Bob and Mike's top 10 films since 2000, discussions of timeless movies, and personal questions about technology predictions. Things get silly with dream pet choices - Bob wants a monkey butler while Mike strategically picks a red panda to score marital points.

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Bob Moats and Mike Wiemuth dive deep into the shadowy world of negative recruiting in college basketball, exploring the tactics, effectiveness, and ethics of programs steering players away from rival schools.

Main Topics

Sports Dead Period & Pacers Reflection

[00:00-15:00]

Bob and Mike discuss the dreaded summer sports lull and reflect on the Indiana Pacers' surprising playoff run. They examine the team's selfless ball movement, Tyrese Haliburton's devastating injury, and what the season meant for bringing fans back to NBA basketball after years away.

Negative Recruiting Parallels to Politics

[15:00-25:00]

Drawing parallels to political campaigning, Bob and Mike establish how negative recruiting works as a persuasion contest. They discuss:

• Key differences between political ads and recruiting (multiple "candidates," shadow operations)
• The concept of "kamikaze" recruiting to prevent rivals from landing recruits
• Strategic timing of when to go negative in recruitment battles

The Intelligence Game

[25:00-35:00]

The conversation turns to how programs gather intelligence on recruits and families. Topics include:

• Assistant coaches' extensive networks and relationship-building
• Understanding family dynamics and decision-makers
• The role of third-party surrogates like AAU coaches
• How specific intel can get (down to restaurant preferences)

Variables & Vulnerabilities

[35:00-45:00]

Using a comprehensive list of recruiting factors, they explore how different variables create opportunities for negative recruiting. The discussion covers playing time, facilities, academics, party scene, geography, and more, emphasizing how each recruit's priorities differ dramatically.

The Scott Drew vs. Bob Knight Story

[45:00-55:00]

Bob and Mike recount the legendary bathroom confrontation where Bob Knight cornered Scott Drew over negative recruiting materials. This story illustrates the tensions between established programs and upstart challengers trying to disrupt the recruiting landscape.

Player Compensation Era & IU's Fresh Start

[55:00-End]

The discussion shifts to how NIL has changed recruiting dynamics and examines IU's situation under the new coaching staff. They analyze recent comments about fan expectations and how confident leadership can address external criticism.

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