Football Weather

Week 11 college football preview: Texas at LSU, USC at Indiana, Illinois at UCLA and more, plus why the CFP committee looks all-in on the SEC.

Galen Clavio and Matt Blaszka open with the fallout from the second College Football Playoff rankings. Why is two-loss Alabama No. 3 when Tennessee beat the Crimson Tide by 16? Why did Miami fall four spots below Alabama despite better strength of record, FEI and SP+? And how is South Carolina ranked ahead of USC, with Missouri ranked over Wisconsin?

Then we preview and pick 10 Week 11 games. In the Big Ten, unbeaten UCLA hosts Illinois on Friday night, Ohio State faces Northwestern, and USC visits Indiana in a chilly Bloomington. In the ACC, Miami hosts defending champion Duke and Wake Forest visits SMU in a key game for the ACC title race. In the SEC, Georgia hosts Missouri, Kentucky needs a win over Florida, and Lane Kiffin's LSU hosts Arch Manning and Texas in a night game in Tiger Stadium. Plus Utah at Arizona and Texas Tech at Drew Mestemaker and Oklahoma State, two games that could pop the Big 12's playoff balloon.

Chapters:

00:00 Veterans Day and CFP rankings fallout

05:06 Alabama at No. 3 and the SEC bias debate

16:19 Miami's drop, USC vs South Carolina

26:25 Big Ten: Illinois-UCLA, Northwestern-Ohio State

33:53 ACC: Duke at Miami, Wake Forest at SMU

39:04 Missouri at Georgia preview

40:49 USC at Indiana preview and pick

44:23 Florida at Kentucky, Utah at Arizona

49:05 Texas at LSU: big night for Lane Kiffin

53:37 Texas Tech at Oklahoma State shootout

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Georgia is No. 1, Alabama jumps to No. 3 and Indiana falls to No. 9 after a bye in the latest College Football Playoff rankings.

Galen Clavio and Matt Blaszka react live as the CFP committee reveals its second set of rankings. Georgia, Utah, Alabama, UCLA and Notre Dame make up the top five, while Miami tumbles from No. 1 to No. 7 behind the Fighting Irish after losing without Malachi Toney. We break down what the committee's choices reveal: a far more reactive group than in past seasons, a heavy lean toward the SEC and a big cushion for BYU, which holds at No. 10 despite losing to Utah. Tennessee climbs to No. 8 after routing Kentucky, while Texas Tech, Wake Forest and Houston sit just outside the field.

Before the reveal, we compare our model's projection to the real thing, map out Oregon's path as the highest-ranked three-loss team at No. 16, and debate whether the Big Ten can get a third team into the playoff.

Chapters:

00:00 Waiting on the CFP rankings reveal

05:16 Our model's projected CFP rankings

11:11 Oregon's path back into the playoff

16:08 Rankings 25-16: Oregon top three-loss team

20:02 Kentucky at 11, BYU holds at No. 10

21:33 Indiana drops to No. 9 after a bye

23:37 Miami falls to No. 7 behind Notre Dame

25:43 Top four: Georgia, Utah, Alabama, UCLA

34:21 Alabama inflation and the SEC lean

38:28 Bubble watch and the Big Ten's third bid

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#CFPRankings #CollegeFootball #CFB #CFP #GeorgiaBulldogs

Oregon routs Ohio State 41-28 and Alabama tops LSU 31-13 in a chaotic Week 10, plus our projection of Tuesday's CFP rankings.

Galen Clavio and Matt Blaszka are joined by College Football with Sam to break down Week 10. Oregon's 38-0 run in the Horseshoe put Dan Lanning's Ducks back in the College Football Playoff race and left Ryan Day and Ohio State facing hard questions without Julian Sayin. Alabama beat LSU despite being outgained by nearly 200 yards, and Lane Kiffin's Tigers are running out of room. Plus: Utah survives BYU as Devon Dampier outduels Bear Bachmeier, Texas handles Missouri 34-20, UCLA wins 34-20 at Minnesota to move to 9-0, Tennessee routs Kentucky 34-6, Georgia crushes Ole Miss 42-7 and Notre Dame holds off Miami 31-24.

Then we run our model's projection of Tuesday's CFP rankings, work through the bubble (Wake Forest, BYU, Houston, USC, Iowa and Oregon), check conference championship odds in the ACC, Big 12, SEC and Big Ten, and explain why nobody should overreact to one week in a season this unpredictable.

Chapters:

00:00 Week 10 chaos and the CFP picture

05:21 Utah beats BYU: Dampier vs Bachmeier's 4 INTs

12:17 Texas beats Missouri: elite defense, Arch Manning

21:10 UCLA wins at Minnesota, moves to 9-0

28:08 Alabama beats LSU, Lane Kiffin under fire

34:48 Oregon routs Ohio State with 38-0 run

47:51 Should Ohio State fire Ryan Day?

52:15 Tennessee rolls Kentucky, Georgia crushes Ole Miss

54:35 Notre Dame edges Miami without Malachi Toney

59:17 CFP rankings projection and bubble watch

1:16:30 Conference title odds and overreaction warning

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#CollegeFootball #CFB #CFP #OregonDucks #GeorgiaBulldogs

The first College Football Playoff rankings are here—and Ohio State is outside the field, Indiana is No. 4, Notre Dame sits on the edge, and the committee has already created plenty to argue about.

College Football with Sam joins Galen Clavio and Matt Blaszka for immediate reaction to the CFP Top 25 before previewing one of the highest-leverage weekends of the 2026 college football season.

The guys dig into why Miami debuted at No. 1, whether Georgia deserves the No. 2 spot, what Utah and Indiana have done to earn top-four positioning, and why Alabama landed all the way at No. 5. They also examine the committee’s treatment of Notre Dame and Ohio State, including how quarterback injuries, strength of record, strength of schedule and game control appear to be influencing the rankings.

Then it’s on to a massive Week 10.

BYU-Utah could determine not only the Big 12 race but both teams’ playoff paths. Texas heads to Missouri in another dangerous SEC road spot, while Ole Miss hosts Georgia in a matchup where Trinidad Chambliss could present serious problems for the Bulldogs.

Alabama-LSU brings another enormous SEC elimination game, Tennessee hosts a Kentucky team whose résumé may be stronger than its underlying metrics, and UCLA travels to Minnesota trying to keep its surprising playoff run alive.

In the Big Ten, Iowa-Northwestern has major postseason implications for two unexpected contenders before Ohio State hosts Oregon in a game that could effectively eliminate one national powerhouse from CFP contention.

And then there’s Miami-Notre Dame. Miami enters as the committee’s No. 1 team, but Notre Dame may be playing for its entire season—and the matchup could expose weaknesses in both defenses.

The guys also react to the increasingly bizarre coaching carousel, including reports involving Phillip Rivers, Russell Wilson and the open NC State job.

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00:31 First CFP rankings reaction with College Football with Sam
05:30 Ohio State OUT, Indiana No. 4 and Notre Dame on the edge
15:30 What SOR, FPI, schedule strength and injuries tell us about the rankings
35:38 BYU-Utah: The biggest playoff-leverage game of Week 10
42:39 Ole Miss-Georgia + Alabama-LSU and SEC elimination games
58:37 UCLA-Minnesota and Iowa-Northwestern
66:04 Ohio State-Oregon: Can either team afford another loss?
74:37 Miami-Notre Dame + the coaching-carousel madness

USC knocked off Ohio State, Indiana needed overtime to survive Minnesota, Miami nearly gave another game away—and Florida State finally fired Mike Norvell. Week 9 gave us another Saturday where trying to identify the best team in college football felt almost impossible.

Galen Clavio and Matt Blaszka break down a chaotic Halloween weekend, starting with Texas Tech’s bounce-back win over Arizona and another round of results that made the ACC and Big Ten increasingly difficult to evaluate.

Indiana survived Minnesota 23-16 in overtime despite a disastrous special-teams performance and an injury to Josh Hoover. The Hoosiers’ defense continues to look championship-caliber, but can the offense get healthy and find enough consistency during the bye week?

The Big 12 remains fascinating. BYU escaped Arizona State but continues to look vulnerable after its Notre Dame win, while unbeaten Utah blew out Cincinnati ahead of a massive Holy War. Is Utah genuinely one of the country’s best teams—or are we still waiting for the résumé to catch up with the metrics?

Then comes the biggest result of the weekend: USC beats Ohio State in Los Angeles. Freshman Luke Fahey moved the Buckeyes between the 20s, but Ohio State repeatedly settled for field goals while USC capitalized on shorter fields. Suddenly Ohio State-Oregon becomes a potential playoff elimination game, while Lincoln Riley and USC have injected themselves back into the Big Ten race.

Miami survived another scare against North Carolina before the conversation turns to Florida State finally moving on from Mike Norvell. Galen and Matt examine why the Seminoles job is simultaneously attractive and deeply dysfunctional—and why so many athletic departments continue to prioritize “winning the press conference” instead of identifying coaches capable of building modern programs.

Then the guys run 100,000 simulations of the Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC championship races, assess the Group of Six CFP picture and dig into the national efficiency numbers.

Finally, with the first College Football Playoff rankings arriving Tuesday, Galen and Matt construct their own versions of what the committee’s Top 25 might look like. Miami, Georgia, Indiana, Utah, UCLA, Kentucky, BYU, Notre Dame, Alabama, Texas and Ohio State all create difficult résumé questions in a season with very little separation at the top.

Plus: the latest Football Weather Merit Poll and listener questions about UCLA, Georgia, Notre Dame, Miami and the rapidly changing playoff race.

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Indiana survived Michigan in overtime, BYU and Texas Tech both went down, USC scored just seven points at Wisconsin—and Week 8 somehow made the College Football Playoff picture even harder to untangle.

Galen Clavio and Matt Blaszka break down another chaotic Saturday, beginning with the idea that may define this entire season: survive and advance. BYU couldn’t do it, falling in double overtime at UCF just one week after beating Notre Dame, while Cincinnati stunned Texas Tech and Utah rallied past Houston. In one afternoon, the Big 12 went from looking like a possible multi-bid CFP league to a much more complicated race.

Then comes the Big Ten. Wisconsin embarrassed USC 24-7, producing one of the worst offensive performances of the Lincoln Riley era and raising serious questions about Riley’s future. Indiana, meanwhile, survived an old-school defensive slugfest at Michigan, winning 13-6 in overtime despite its worst offensive performance of the season.

Galen and Matt also break down Minnesota-Iowa, UCLA’s continued rise, the increasingly strange Big Ten championship race and how Ohio State’s quarterback situation could affect everything down the stretch.

In the SEC, Texas survives Ole Miss 34-27 after nearly blowing a 21-point halftime lead, South Carolina knocks off Tennessee and LSU handles Auburn. The guys dig into what those results say about Texas, Arch Manning and an SEC hierarchy that remains difficult to trust. Texas’ win over Ole Miss was confirmed by the schools’ official box scores.

The show also looks at the Group of Six playoff race, names its Teams of the Week, examines the latest round of coaching firings and asks how many major jobs could unexpectedly open this offseason.

Finally, Galen and Matt unveil their Week 8 Merit Poll before closing with football-weather scenes from Montana State and Appalachian State.

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Galen and Matt open Week 8 with two major Big Ten stories: Maryland’s decision to fire Michael Locksley and Julian Sayin’s injury at Ohio State.

They discuss what Sayin’s absence could mean for the Buckeyes over the final month, particularly with a difficult schedule and limited offensive margin for error, before digging into what Maryland should actually be looking for in its next head coach.

Then comes the weekend preview. Indiana travels to Michigan trying to rebound against one of the country’s better defenses, USC faces a dangerous night game at Wisconsin, and Houston-Utah could dramatically alter the Big 12 playoff race.

BYU tries to avoid a letdown at UCF after beating Notre Dame, while the SEC gives us Tennessee-South Carolina, LSU-Auburn and a fascinating Ole Miss-Texas matchup with the Longhorns running out of chances to save their season.

Plus, North Dakota State-New Mexico headlines another important weekend in the Group of Six playoff race.

Ohio State survived Indiana in Bloomington—but lost quarterback Julian Sayin in the process. Tennessee stunned Alabama, Auburn knocked off No. 1 Georgia, BYU beat Notre Dame, and Week 7 may have completely reset the national championship race.

Galen Clavio and Matt Blaszka break down one of the wildest Saturdays of the 2026 college football season and ask a question that suddenly feels impossible to answer: who can you actually trust?

The show starts with Ohio State’s 19-15 win at Indiana. Both defenses controlled the game, Indiana struggled to run the football, and the Buckeyes made just enough plays to end IU’s 22-game winning streak. But Sayin’s injury dramatically changes Ohio State’s outlook heading into the toughest part of its schedule.

Then the SEC goes completely sideways. Ole Miss crushes Missouri, Florida wins at Texas, Tennessee dominates Alabama, Kentucky beats Oklahoma and Auburn walks into Athens and knocks off No. 1 Georgia. Are there any truly elite teams left in the conference—or anywhere in the country?

BYU also makes a huge statement with a 28-24 win over Notre Dame, strengthening both its playoff résumé and the Big 12’s case for multiple CFP bids. Texas Tech, Houston and Utah remain firmly in the conversation as the league’s playoff picture gets increasingly interesting.

Galen and Matt also dig into Miami’s chaotic win over Florida State, updated conference title odds, Football Weather’s efficiency rankings, strength of record and the increasingly difficult question of how the CFP committee should rank this field.

The show closes with Teams of the Week, a perfect weekend of actual football weather and the latest Football Weather Merit Poll.

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Ohio State visits Indiana in one of the biggest games of the college football season—a matchup between the last two national champions and two teams playing at a championship level again in 2026.

College Football with Sam joins Galen Clavio and Matt Blaszka for a loaded Week 7 preview, but first the guys react to the growing expectation that the College Football Playoff could expand to 24 teams. Would a larger field create better postseason access, or would it encourage contenders to protect players and further diminish the regular season?

Then it’s on to Ohio State-Indiana. The matchup looks remarkably even statistically, with Indiana’s advantage along the lines of scrimmage going up against an Ohio State passing game capable of creating major problems. The guys break down the tactical matchup, the pressure points for both teams and why this could look very different from their defensive battle in last year’s Big Ten Championship Game.

Alabama also travels to Tennessee for another major SEC test, while Missouri visits Ole Miss in a fascinating matchup between two teams still trying to establish themselves in the national pecking order.

Notre Dame heads to Provo to face undefeated BYU, LSU hosts Mississippi State with major questions surrounding the Bulldogs’ quarterback situation, and UCLA tries to keep its surprising start going against Wisconsin.

The nightcap brings another fascinating Big Ten game as Nebraska visits an Oregon team desperately trying to save its season without Dante Moore.

Plus: Oklahoma State-Houston, Virginia-SMU, Kentucky-Oklahoma, Penn State-Michigan and other games worth watching around the country.

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No. 1 Texas lost the Red River Rivalry, Georgia finally won at Alabama, Indiana escaped Nebraska, UCLA stunned Oregon—and six weeks into the season, college football still doesn’t seem to have one clearly dominant team.

Galen Clavio and Matt Blaszka break down a chaotic Week 6 and ask a larger question: how much of the national conversation is still being driven by preseason expectations rather than what teams have actually done?

Oklahoma’s 27-24 win over Texas creates major problems for the Longhorns and Arch Manning, while Georgia’s 20-17 victory at Alabama may have established the Bulldogs as the most complete team in the country. But does Alabama really deserve to remain automatically grouped with the national elite?

Indiana also rallied from an 11-point deficit to survive Nebraska, setting up a massive showdown with Ohio State in Bloomington. Meanwhile, UCLA remained unbeaten by knocking off Oregon, putting the Ducks’ playoff hopes in serious danger and further scrambling a Big Ten race in which traditional powers Michigan and Penn State have struggled badly.

The guys also discuss Kentucky’s dramatic win over LSU, Missouri’s rout of Texas A&M, USC’s victory at Penn State, the problems created by massive quarterback and coaching contracts, and why talent alone can no longer cover up poor roster construction or bad coaching decisions.

Then it’s time for the halfway-point check-in: biggest surprises, biggest disappointments, teams that could still emerge as playoff contenders, updated efficiency rankings and the latest Football Weather Merit Poll.

Plus, listener questions on Notre Dame-BYU, USC’s remaining playoff path, Clemson and Dabo Swinney—and an early look ahead to Indiana-Ohio State.

Subscribe to Football Weather for smart, analytical and conversational national college football coverage throughout the season.