X's and Joe's

[37] Can You Really Build a Title Contender Using Homegrown Talent?


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Bob Moats and Mike Wiemuth examine the beloved mythology of in-state recruiting, exploring whether building championship teams with local talent is still viable in modern college basketball.

Puerto Rico Recap & Recruiting Updates

[00:00-15:00]

Bob and Mike discuss IU's successful exhibition trip to Puerto Rico, highlighting impressive performances and what the games revealed about the team's offensive potential. They also touch on the busy recruiting landscape, upcoming visits, and how the new coaching staff is filling their recruiting pipeline with diverse targets across multiple positions.

The Dorothy Complex

[15:00-30:00]

Using "The Wizard of Oz" as a framework, Bob and Mike dive into the mythology surrounding in-state recruiting. They identify three distinct versions of the argument:

  • The extreme position: Load up on as many in-state kids as possible
  • The moderate approach: Swap in a few three-star locals at the margins
  • The observational stance: Frustration over missing elite in-state prospects

The discussion explores whether kids even want to stay home anymore, given changing family backgrounds and transplant populations.

The Numbers Game

[30:00-45:00]

Mike presents data showing Indiana's changing talent production compared to basketball hotbeds like Georgia and Texas. Key revelations include how Indiana now produces only 2-3 top 100 players annually versus seven in peak years, and the geographic shift of elite talent toward the South and Southwest. The conversation covers population migration, infrastructure changes, and why the "inexhaustible pool" theory no longer holds.

Modern Coaching Realities

[45:00-60:00]

Bob examines what coaches actually consider when balancing in-state versus national recruiting, using Matt Painter's Purdue model as a case study. Topics include:

  • System-based recruiting versus talent acquisition
  • The "who can you get" factor in roster construction
  • How the transfer portal changes long-term planning
  • Why relationships with local coaches still matter

Championship Blueprints

[60:00-75:00]

Analysis of national championship rosters reveals that 85% of starters over the past 25 years were from out-of-state. Even programs in talent-rich areas like Virginia had zero in-state starters on their title team. The discussion examines whether building around local talent is mathematically feasible for championship contention.

Indiana's Path Forward

[75:00-End]

Bob and Mike conclude with strategies for maintaining in-state connections while pursuing elite talent nationally. Topics include using walk-on programs strategically, staying visible in local communities, and why the current coaching staff's diverse recruiting approach makes sense for IU's championship aspirations.

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