The Heat Pump Podcast

#44 Test, Don't Guess – How Mitch Bailey Built a Profitable HVAC Business Without Chasing Every Lead


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Want to win on trust, not price?

Start with our Trust Checklist to see if your business is doing the things that truly set you apart.

👉 https://bit.ly/the-heatpump-business-model-matrix

Then, head to our latest article to learn how the top contractors protect their margins and stay competitive.

👉 http://info.amply.energy/blog/win-on-trust-the-heat-pump-business-model-matrix

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When leads are scarce, most HVAC contractors chase everything. Mitch Bailey does the opposite—and it's working.

The second-generation owner of Bailey's Air Heroes downsized from 50 employees to 12, turns down work that doesn't fit, and built a $3M business around one principle: test, don't guess.

Mitch just won the 2024 Jim Davis Technical Excellence Award from NCI. He trains contractors across California. And he's all-in on heat pumps—even when the economics are tricky.


In this episode, we dig into: 

→ Why he refused to budge $5 for a builder (and got fired for it) 

→ How he shifted from 3-6% margins to 30% by switching to “retail work” 

→ His "$2 high-tech selling tool" that closes engineer customers 

→ The balance point COP spreadsheet that shows when heat pumps pencil out 

→ Why he trains his competition (and why it's strategic) 

→ His advice: start with load calculations and static pressure testing

If you're wondering how to build a sustainable HVAC business without burning out, this one's for you.


Timestamps:

[00:00] - Introduction

[02:44] - Mitch’s Early HVAC Roots

[04:21] - Learning Through Experience & California’s Training Programs

[07:25] - Taking Over the Business & Embracing Technology

[19:49] - Transitioning from New Construction to Retrofit Work

[26:37] - Lessons from New Construction: Don’t Compete on Price

[33:47] - High-Performance Contracting in Practice

[44:13] - Economics of Heat Pumps vs Gas Furnaces

[55:45] - Advice for Contractors: Where to Start with Performance Work


Follow Mitchell Bailey:

  • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mitchell-bailey-b3887948/
  • YouTube: https://youtube.com/@baileysair
  • Email: [email protected]
  • Website (Company): https://airheroes.org/company/

Follow the Hosts:

  • Ed Smith: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ed-smith-5aa8716
  • Eric Fitz: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ehfitz/
  • Amply Energy Website: https://www.amply.energy/
  • Amply Energy YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@amplyenergy
  • Amply Energy Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/amplyenergy
  • Amply Energy Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/amply_energy/
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