Threshold.mp3

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ABOUT THE SONG AND SCIENCE

Climate thresholds — often called tipping points — are critical boundaries within Earth’s systems. Once crossed, the system shifts into a new state that sustains and accelerates its own change, even without additional human forcing. These thresholds mark the divide between a climate we can influence directly and one that begins to spiral beyond our control.

A tipping point is reached when gradual pressure (such as rising CO₂, warming oceans, or ecosystem degradation) overwhelms the stabilizing forces within a system. Once crossed, positive feedbacks dominate:

Arctic warming melts sea ice → darker ocean absorbs more heat → faster warming.

Permafrost thaws → methane release → additional warming → deeper thaw.

Ice shelves collapse → glaciers accelerate → sea level rises → more destabilization.

These aren’t linear responses. They are phase shifts — abrupt transitions into new climate states that can persist for centuries to millennia.

Tipping points rarely occur in isolation. When one destabilizes, it increases stress on others. This chain reaction — the Domino Effect — reflects how interconnected Earth’s climate systems truly are.

Examples of cascading interactions:

• Heat Fire Carbon Cycle Breakdown
Rising temperatures intensify droughts and wildfires.
Wildfires generate aerosols and tropospheric ozone that suppress photosynthesis.
Reduced plant uptake increases atmospheric CO₂.
Higher CO₂ drives more heat, more drought, and more fire — a self-reinforcing cycle.

• Cryosphere Ocean Circulation Weather Extremes
Melting Greenland and Antarctic ice dilutes and disrupts ocean circulation patterns (e.g., AMOC).
Weakened circulation destabilizes weather systems, amplifying flooding, heatwaves, and crop failures.
These impacts accelerate ice loss — closing the loop.

• Sea-Level Rise Coastal Collapse Societal Instability
As sea levels rise and glaciers retreat, coastlines erode and infrastructure fails.
The economic and political fallout delays mitigation, ensuring even higher emissions.
Societal feedbacks feed back into environmental collapse.

These are compound, interacting feedbacks, not separate problems. Once multiple loops reinforce each other, the climate behaves like a complex adaptive system moving into runaway disequilibrium.

Because these interactions amplify one another, future climate trajectories cannot be captured by linear models or single-variable projections. Instead, the system behaves stochastically:

risks compound,

uncertainties grow asymmetrically,

and tail-risk outcomes (the worst-case scenarios) become more probable.

This is why modern ensemble modeling treats climate futures in probabilistic terms — because once feedback loops activate, Earth’s climate begins evolving according to internal dynamics we no longer fully control.

From the album “Brink“

Tipping-Point.mp3

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ABOUT THE SONG AND SCIENCE

Understanding Tipping Points

Tipping points and feedback loops are key factors in determining the rate of acceleration of climate change. When one tipping point is breached and triggers others to fall, the result is known as the Domino Effect.

To explain: push a glass slowly toward the edge of a table. Eventually, no matter how cautious you are, it will reach a critical point where it tips over and falls. Once the tipping point is crossed, the fall is inevitable–regardless of your intentions or beliefs.

Climate tipping points operate the same way. They are not a matter of opinion, but of science. Once breached, they lead to rapid, self-perpetuating change that is difficult–often impossible–to reverse.

What Are Climate Tipping Points?

Climate tipping points mark thresholds in Earth’s systems beyond which change becomes self-sustaining. These shifts push the climate into a new and often irreversible state–without requiring further human influence.

Many of these tipping points have already been crossed. For instance:

Methane released from beneath melting Arctic ice cannot be re-sequestered.

Alpine glaciers formed over 25,000 years ago are gone and will not return for millennia.

Permafrost is thawing across the Northern Hemisphere, from Alaska to Siberia, unleashing carbon and methane, destabilizing landscapes, and destroying ecosystems.

The Iberdrola Group reports, “Melting Siberian permafrost is turning tundra into muddy, barren terrain, starving local wildlife. Water bodies vanish as their bases thaw, worsening drought conditions.”

These are not isolated incidents. They mark the formation of positive feedback loops–like methane release accelerating further warming, which causes more methane to be released. The cycle feeds itself.

Evidence of Crossed Tipping Points

In 2019, Professor Tim Lenton of the University of Exeter warned:

“A decade ago we identified a suite of potential tipping points in the Earth system. Now we see evidence that over half of them have been activated… It is no longer responsible to wait and see.”

Some already-active or dangerously close tipping points include:

Greenland and East Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse

Mountain glacier loss

Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)

Amazon rainforest dieback

Arctic sea ice loss

Boreal forest degradation

Permafrost thaw

Warm-water coral bleaching

West Antarctic Ice Sheet instability

AMOC Tipping Point Crossed?
Until recently, the collapse of the AMOC was projected centuries away. But in July 2023, Nature Communications published “Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation.” The data now projects AMOC collapse around 2050 under current emissions scenarios.

This collapse could accelerate sea level rise along the U.S. East Coast, intensify storms in Europe, and increase drought in West Africa. Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf warned:

“Climate history shows AMOC changes have led to some of the most abrupt and extreme temperature shifts. We must avoid disrupting it at all costs.”

Feedback Loops and Cascading Tipping Points

In Climate Change: How Long Is “Ever”?, we wrote:

“Extreme weather will increase. Coastlines will vanish. The most troubling shift, however, is the emergence of feedback loops–where plants and carbon sinks die off, accelerating warming independently of human activity.”

Sidd Mukherjee noted:

“That’s just one study. The window is between 2025 and 2095. I suspect we’ll be seeing many unpleasant surprises before then.”

The Domino Effect
When one tipping point triggers another, the domino effect begins. For example:

Melting mountain glaciers contribute to sea level rise.

This rise disrupts ocean circulation (AMOC).

AMOC disruption weakens rainfall in the Amazon.

Amazon dieback reduces carbon sequestration, amplifying global warming.

The Journal Science study “Triggering Multiple Climate Tipping Points” confirms:

“Even 1°C of global warming–the level we’ve already exceeded–risks triggering multiple tipping points.”

Each tenth of a degree beyond this increases the risk dramatically. Yet the world is on track for 2-3°C of warming–well above the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C goal.

Cascading Crisis: Tipping Points Triggering Tipping Points

Climate scientist Sidd Mukherjee warned:

“Remember: these thresholds come with error bars. What we think might tip at 1.5°C may already be tipped at 1°C.”

This appears to be happening now.

For example:

Sea ice loss exposes darker ocean surfaces.

These absorb more heat, leading to more ice loss.

This heat also accelerates methane release from thawing permafrost.

Thawing permafrost releases yet more methane, feeding the loop.

In July 2023, the global temperature briefly reached 3°C above pre-industrial levels–an unprecedented and alarming milestone.

Conclusion: The Window is Closing

Adapted from Exceeding 1.5°C Global Warming Could Trigger Multiple Climate Tipping Points (Sept. 2022):

We are now living with the reality of crossed tipping points. Some systems–like AMOC, Arctic sea ice, and permafrost–may already be in irreversible decline. These shifts will affect the Earth for thousands of years, regardless of future emissions cuts.

The imperative is clear: We must act not only to reduce emissions, but to halt the cascade of tipping points before they spiral out of control.

URGENT CLIMATE WARNING

At this level of heating, large regions of the planet will become uninhabitable due to extreme heat, sea level rise, agricultural collapse, and mass migration. Critically, parts of the U.S. are already experiencing wet-bulb temperatures approaching or exceeding 31°C (87.8°F) — a physiological limit beyond which the human body can no longer regulate its internal temperature, even in the shade with ample water.

This is no longer a distant threat. The climate system is entering a phase of compound risk and cascading collapse — and we are already seeing the early signs.

Immediate, radical mitigation and adaptation efforts are now essential to preserve habitable zones, food systems, and public health.

From the album “Brink“

An-Extreme-Edge-Best-Of.mp3

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ABOUT THE SONG AND THE SCIENCE: Foster a Culture of Love and Care

Q: What is happening with climate change?
A: It is accelerating at an exponential rate — far faster than the public narrative or old models suggest.

For years, the world was taught to focus on “holding global warming to 1.5°C.” But that number has quietly become meaningless. Not only have we likely crossed it already, the real danger is not the temperature itself — it is the tipping points that crossing that threshold has set in motion. These tipping points have triggered cascading, self-reinforcing feedback loops that are now reshaping Earth’s systems with unprecedented speed.

We are not approaching a climate crisis.
We are living inside its accelerating phase.

These are not distant projections.
These are real-time runaway feedbacks already visible across ecosystems, oceans, and the atmosphere.

The climate system is now governed by compound nonlinear interactions:

Arctic amplification

ocean heat accumulation

ozone stress

runaway wildfires

permafrost collapse

accelerating hydrological extremes

Each amplifies the others in ways models struggle to capture.

The central scientific question is no longer:

“Will feedback loops accelerate warming?”

It is now:

“How much time is left before cascading feedbacks overwhelm natural and human systems?”

Our research is focused on precisely this:
mapping the speed, scale, and irreversibility of climate feedbacks — and determining how close Earth is to thresholds that will define the trajectory of human civilization.

* Our probabilistic, ensemble-based climate model — which incorporates complex socio-economic and ecological feedback loops within a dynamic, nonlinear system — projects that global temperatures are becoming unsustainable this century. This far exceeds earlier estimates of a 4°C rise over the next thousand years, highlighting a dramatic acceleration in global warming. We are now entering a phase of compound, cascading collapse, where climate, ecological, and societal systems destabilize through interlinked, self-reinforcing feedback loops.

What Can I Do?

From the album “Brink“

Plight-of-the-Penguin-Best-Of.mp3

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ABOUT THE SCIENCE — The Plight of the Penguin: Will Humans Follow? (Adaptation Part I)

Penguin populations across the Southern Hemisphere are undergoing rapid collapse as climate change, ocean warming, disrupted food webs, and human exploitation destabilize their ecosystems. This paper synthesizes new evidence from Antarctic system destabilization, emerging penguin population studies, and interlinked climate tipping points to examine the existential crisis facing both penguin species and humanity. While some penguin species exhibit short-term adaptability, the majority face extinction within the century. Likewise, accelerating nonlinear climate dynamics and cascading feedback loops threaten to exceed human adaptive capacity. Understanding the penguin’s collapse offers a preview of humanity’s own trajectory under unchecked climate destabilization.

Over the past year, the severity of global penguin declines has become unmistakably clear. These declines are not isolated events: they are symptoms of a rapidly destabilizing Earth system. From Antarctica to South Africa to the Galápagos, penguins serve as indicator species–sentinels signaling the collapse of marine and cryospheric ecosystems.

At the same time, new climate science–particularly the August 2025 paper Emerging Evidence of Abrupt Changes in the Antarctic Environment –confirms that Antarctica is destabilizing far faster than previously modeled. Processes once thought to unfold over millennia are now accelerating on decadal or even annual scales.

What is happening to the penguins is not separate from humanity’s fate. It is a preview.

Antarctica represents the single greatest existential threat to human civilization. The collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet alone commits the planet to ~3.3 meters (11 feet) of sea-level rise; full destabilization of East Antarctica commits humanity to more than 50 meters (164 feet).

The August 2025 Antarctic study revealed several accelerated processes:

Ice shelf disintegration occurring a century ahead of projections

Runaway marine ice sheet instability along the Amundsen sector

Rapid weakening of the Antarctic overturning circulation (AOC)

Record-low sea-ice extent for consecutive years

Nonlinear acceleration of glacial outflow

These are tipping points, and evidence indicates many have already been crossed.

The Emperor Penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri), entirely dependent on stable, land-fast sea ice, has become the symbol of Antarctic ecological collapse.

Breeding failures
Early sea-ice breakup plunges downy chicks into freezing water; they drown or die of hypothermia. Entire colonies experience total reproductive collapse.

Colony declines
Between 2018 and 2022, 30% of all known colonies experienced major or total sea-ice loss.

Population crash
Some regions show a 22% decline, nearly 50% worse than previous worst-case predictions.

Extinction risk
Under current emissions scenarios, >90% of colonies may reach quasi-extinction by 2100.
The species was listed as Threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act in 2022.

The Emperor Penguin is not merely “at risk.” It is on a countdown to extinction.

A newly published analysis from the University of Exeter and South Africa’s Department of Forestry, Fisheries, and the Environment (Ostrich: Journal of African Ornithology) — High adult mortality of African Penguins — reveals staggering losses in African penguin (Spheniscus demersus) populations.

62,000 breeding adults died between 2004-2011

95% colony collapse at Dassen and Robben Islands

80% global decline over 30 years

Species now classified as Critically Endangered

Commercial overfishing
Exploitation of sardines and anchovies reached ~80%, leaving insufficient forage.

Climate-driven ecosystem shift
Warming and changing salinity pushed prey far offshore.
Penguins cannot forage more than ~40 km from the nest–beyond that, they starve.

This is not a natural fluctuation. It is a human-driven collapse.

A snapshot of current conservation status:

Yellow-eyed Penguin (Hoiho) – <3,000 mature individuals

Erect-crested Penguin – declining, restricted to sub-Antarctic islands

Galapagos Penguin – threatened by El Nino amplification

Macaroni & Southern Rockhopper Penguins – food scarcity, climate extremes

These declines highlight the fragility of polar and marine ecosystems under rapid warming.

A few penguin species–temporarily–appear stable or increasing:

Gentoo Penguins
Thrive with reduced ice; flexible diet and foraging range.

Adelie Penguins (regional)
Declining in the warming Peninsula but increasing in the Ross Sea and East Antarctica.

King Penguins
Overall stable and increasing, though some colonies show sharp declines.

Little Penguins
Generally stable; primary threats are human disturbance rather than climate.

These species are not “safe.” They are simply not yet in freefall.

The question is no longer theoretical.

Humanity has triggered:

Antarctic and Arctic permafrost thaw

Carbon-sink collapse in mature forests

Nonlinear amplification of feedback loops

Accelerating sea-level rise

Disrupted global heat and moisture transport

Destabilized agriculture, fisheries, and water systems

As of 2020-2025, most of Earth’s major carbon sinks–including Amazonia, boreal forests, and thawing permafrost–have shifted from net absorbers to net sources of greenhouse gases. This marks the onset of an accelerating planetary cascade.

Migration? Limited.
Geoengineering? Unproven and high-risk.
Adaptation? Insufficient.
Restoring lost ice? Impossible on human timescales.

Without unprecedented global action–and likely without breakthroughs in AI-accelerated climate solutions–human adaptive capacity will be exceeded within decades.

Penguins are simply ahead of us in the timeline.

Penguin collapse is not just a biodiversity tragedy–it is a systems-level warning of Earth’s destabilization. The same forces driving penguin extinction are driving humanity toward an adaptation threshold we are unlikely to surpass.

The question is not whether the penguins can adapt.
It is whether we can.

And the window to answer that question is rapidly closing.

URGENT CLIMATE WARNING

At this level of heating, many regions will become uninhabitable due to heat stress, sea-level rise, food system failure, and forced migration. Wet-bulb temperatures in the U.S. are already nearing 31°C (87.8°F) — a physiological limit beyond which human life cannot be sustained outdoors for long, even with water and shade.

This is not hypothetical. The climate system is tipping now.

From the album “Brink“

Penguin-Are-You-African-Best-Of.mp3

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ABOUT THE SONG

The number one KingArthur song of 2025 is “Penguin.” I originally wrote it about the Emperor Penguin.

The song grew out of grief — the same grief I feel every time I write about extinction. Its earliest spark came from the paper Antarctica, Inevitable Sea-Level Rise, and the Cascading Impacts of Climate Change. Writing scientifically about extinction demands clinical phrasing like:

“Wildlife Collapse: Emperor penguins and other species face extinction as their habitats vanish.”

But music lets me tell the truth emotionally — without filters, without footnotes.
“Penguin” became the place where I could finally let the pain through, turning the cold statistics into something human.

Heartbreakingly, a new report shows the crisis extends far beyond Antarctica.

A newly published study has revealed that African penguins off the coast of South Africa likely starved to death en masse after a catastrophic collapse of their primary food sources, sardines and anchovies.

African penguin (Spheniscus demersus).

The findings — from the University of Exeter and South Africa’s Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment, published in Ostrich: Journal of African Ornithology — are devastating:

Mass Starvation: An estimated 62,000 breeding penguins died between 2004 and 2011.

Colony Collapse: On Dassen Island and Robben Island, 95% of the penguins breeding in 2004 were gone within eight years.

Species Status: African penguins are now Critically Endangered, with a global population decline of nearly 80% in just 30 years.

Why did this happen?

Two driving forces:

Commercial Overfishing — Sardine and anchovy exploitation reached nearly 80%, stripping the ecosystem bare.

Climate Change — Warming oceans and shifting salinity patterns have pushed the remaining fish far from traditional penguin foraging zones. Penguins can’t travel more than ~40 km from their nests to hunt. When the fish move, they starve.

So today, I’m writing and recording “African Penguin.”

If the song moves even one person to care, to act, to push for change, then maybe it can make a difference.

Please — before it’s too late — stop climate change now.

URGENT CLIMATE WARNING

At this level of heating, many regions will become uninhabitable due to heat stress, sea-level rise, food system failure, and forced migration. Wet-bulb temperatures in the U.S. are already nearing 31°C (87.8°F) — a physiological limit beyond which human life cannot be sustained outdoors for long, even with water and shade.

This is not hypothetical. The climate system is tipping now.

From the album “Brink“

Brink.mp3

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ABOUT THE SCIENCE

The question is no longer theoretical.

Humanity has triggered:

Antarctic and Arctic permafrost thaw

Carbon-sink collapse in mature forests

Nonlinear amplification of feedback loops

Accelerating sea-level rise

Disrupted global heat and moisture transport

Destabilized agriculture, fisheries, and water systems

As of 2020-2025, most of Earth’s major carbon sinks–including Amazonia, boreal forests, and thawing permafrost–have shifted from net absorbers to net sources of greenhouse gases. This marks the onset of an accelerating planetary cascade.

Migration? Limited.
Geoengineering? Unproven and high-risk.
Adaptation? Insufficient.
Restoring lost ice? Impossible on human timescales.

Without unprecedented global action–and likely without breakthroughs in AI-accelerated climate solutions–human adaptive capacity will be exceeded within decades.

Penguins are simply ahead of us in the timeline.

Penguin collapse is not just a biodiversity tragedy–it is a systems-level warning of Earth’s destabilization. The same forces driving penguin extinction are driving humanity toward an adaptation threshold we are unlikely to surpass.

The question is not whether the penguins can adapt.
It is whether we can.

And the window to answer that question is rapidly closing.

URGENT CLIMATE WARNING

At this level of heating, many regions will become uninhabitable due to heat stress, sea-level rise, food system failure, and forced migration. Wet-bulb temperatures in the U.S. are already nearing 31°C (87.8°F) — a physiological limit beyond which human life cannot be sustained outdoors for long, even with water and shade.

This is not hypothetical. The climate system is tipping now.

From the album “Brink“

Permeability-Best-Of.mp3

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ABOUT THE SCIENCE

The physics of permeability center on fluid dynamics and the physical geometry of the material’s pore spaces. It is an intrinsic property that describes a porous material’s capacity to transmit a fluid under the influence of a pressure gradient. The fundamental governing principle for fluid flow through porous media at low velocities is Darcy’s Law.

Darcy’s Law: The Core Physics Henry Darcy, a French engineer, formulated an empirical law in 1856 which established the relationship between flow rate and pressure drop through a sand filter. Darcy’s Law states that the volumetric flow rate (Q) is proportional to the pressure difference (Delta P) and the cross-sectional area (A), and inversely proportional to the fluid’s dynamic viscosity (mu) and the length of the flow path (L).

From the album “Porous“

Porosity-Best-Of.mp3

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ABOUT THE SCIENCE

Key Concepts

Porosity vs. Permeability: These two terms are related but distinct.

From the album “Porous“

[Verse 1]
Sweating like a pig
(Doing a dirge jig)
Just another fool
(Trying to stay cool)

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Can you beat
(The heat)

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Thermoregulation
(Whoa, don’t sweat it)
Thermoregulation
(No, don’t bet on it)

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Sweating is starting to cease
(Soon to be deceased)
Just another fool
(Trying to stay cool)

[Bridge]
Can you beat
(The heat)

[Chorus]
Thermoregulation
(Whoa, don’t sweat it)
Thermoregulation
(No, don’t bet on it)

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Can’t sweat it
(Will regret it)
Can’t beat
(The heat)
Man’s retreat
Can’t beat
(The heat)
Man’s defeat

ABOUT THE SCIENCE

The most immediate and deadly health risk from climate change is not simply heat–it’s the combination of heat and humidity, known as deadly humid heat or wet-bulb temperature. This phenomenon is already threatening lives across the globe and increasingly within the United States.

As temperatures rise, so does the atmosphere’s capacity to hold water vapor. The Clausius-Clapeyron equation explains this: for every 1°C (1.8°F) increase in temperature, the air can hold about 7% more moisture. This additional humidity prevents our bodies from cooling through sweat, creating dangerous and potentially fatal conditions.

A wet-bulb temperature is measured using a thermometer wrapped in a wet cloth, mimicking the body’s sweat-based cooling. When the air is too humid, evaporation slows or stops, and the body can no longer cool itself. A 2022 study, Adaptability Limit to Climate Change Due to Heat Stress, found that a wet-bulb temperature of 35°C (95°F) at 100% humidity–or even 115°F at 50% humidity–is the upper limit of survivability.

Beyond this threshold, even in the shade and with water, the body begins to overheat. Symptoms include confusion, dizziness, rapid heartbeat, nausea, and ultimately, fatal heatstroke. These effects can occur within hours, and without cooling infrastructure, medical intervention, or access to safe shelter, death is a likely outcome.

The United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) warns that each degree Celsius of warming increases atmospheric moisture by 7%. Global sea surface temperatures are now at record highs, increasing atmospheric water vapor by 5-15% compared to pre-1970s levels.

A 2023 study by Purdue and George Mason universities, Greatly Enhanced Risk to Humans from Lower Moist Heat Stress Tolerance, projects that 1.5 billion people could be exposed to deadly heat stress at just 3°C (5.4°F) of warming. In summer 2023, the Earth experienced over a month of temperatures above this threshold. Europe saw over 61,000 heat-related deaths in 2022 alone.

In Brazil, the effects were stark: Rio de Janeiro hit a record temperature of 42.5°C (108.5°F) in November 2023. With humidity, the heat index soared to 59.3°C (138.7°F)–lethal even to healthy individuals. A young concertgoer at a Taylor Swift concert in Rio tragically died due to these conditions. This isn’t an anomaly–it’s a harbinger of the future.

Thermoregulation

The primary roles of the pores in the skin are for secretion and temperature regulation.

Releasing Sweat: Tiny sweat pores, connected to eccrine glands, release perspiration to the surface of the skin. The evaporation of this sweat is essential for cooling the body down and regulating core temperature (thermoregulation).

WARNING!

* Our probabilistic, ensemble-based climate model — which incorporates complex socio-economic and ecological feedback loops within a dynamic, nonlinear system — projects that global temperatures are becoming unsustainable this century. This far exceeds earlier estimates of a 4°C rise over the next thousand years, highlighting a dramatic acceleration in global warming. We are now entering a phase of compound, cascading collapse, where climate, ecological, and societal systems destabilize through interlinked, self-reinforcing feedback loops.

What Can I Do?
The single most important action you can take to help address the climate crisis is simple: stop burning fossil fuels.

From the album “Porous“

Sebum.mp3

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ABOUT THE SCIENCE

From the album “Porous“