Alas, today's economic news is dominated by the carpet bombing of Markit's PMIs. 

Broadly they purport to find industry in Europe now expanding in July, Asia still contracting, and the US broadly stable.  Treat this economic clickbait with scepticism. 

Also be sceptical about the reported 0.7% mom fall in US construction spending in June - these numbers are regularly revised upwards, and the 1.4% fall in residential spending contradicts all other data from June's housing market. 

A very busy data day for both Asia and Europe - the usual end-of-month pile-up. 

So I have to be selective today:  I look at the surprisingly good news from the industrial sectors of Japan and S Korea, and consider its impact on their inventory overhangs.  

I look at Hong Kong's budget deficit - blowing out alarmingly, and  problem the territory could really do without right now. 

In Europe, I look at the 'surprising' jump in CPI numbers; and note that the 12.1% qoq fall in 2Q GDP annualizes to a drop of 40.3%.  Big hole, big hole. 

Although this was a busy day, there is no avoiding the main event - the sighting shot at US 2Q GDP. 

Looking at the details, I can identify four factors likely to power a 3Q rebound: 

1. Service sector lockdowns easing

2. 2Q's inventory-dump has left the economy inventory-light - so there will need to be an inventory rebuild, and fast;

3. Residential investment is already in the early stages of recovery, with positive yoy results in June. And, of course, there's an inventory shortage here too! 

4. Huge govt transfer payments left disposable income up 42.1% in 2Q, much of it banked: personal savings tripled in dollar terms.  Firepower! 

Today I highlight two topics: 

First, the 9% yoy fall in HK's 2Q GDP isn't too bad - but the 46.6% yoy fall in services exports is genuinely disastrous. Services exports is, after all, what HK does, and unless this collapse is reversed, Hong Kong's pricing (and therefore financing) structures will come under serious pressure. 

Second, I look at the fall in US inventories reported by the retail and wholesale sectors in June. Much to my surprise, it turns out that right now the US is running inventory-light! Two months ago I was worried about whether the inventory overhang would compromise the industrial recovery. How rapidly that sorted itself out! 

We're in the lull before the storm of data which will hit towards the end of the week. Also, I'm happy to report that results are becoming noticeably less chaotic - so the world is becoming less opaque and more predictable. 

Today, I look at three releases: the surprising strength of retail sales reported by the UK's CBI members in July; the pull-back in US consumer confidence index; and the third consecutive positive result from the US chemical activity barometer.

The main feature of the day was . . . it's sheer normality. Only three out of the 18 releases I track arrived more than a standard deviation away from consensus or trend. 

And that's the important news of the day: after four months when even short-term data-forecasting became effectively impossible, we are beginning once again to get back to a present where multiple standard-deviation events are becoming the rarity they should be.  And that means we're going to get a lot more clarity over the near-term future during the next few months.  Thank goodness. 

Today I focus on Markit's preliminary PMIs for UK, Eurozone and UK, looking primarily at what they are telling us about shifts in sentiment as we simultaneously ease out of lockdown whilst at the same time coronavirus makes its own bid for a rebound. 

More surprising, however, were the extraordinary strength in UK's June retail sales, and Taiwan's June financial data, both of which I look at. 

Another quiet day for global economic data. Today I look at:

Taiwan's falling unemployment rate;

The rise in the Eurozone's 1Q fiscal deficit.

Today's main event is the agreement to allow the European Commission to raise Eu750bn on financial markets. This bulletin looks at those details which are available, trying to discover its true worth. 

It also notes signs of stabilization in the UK's June fiscal results. 

A quiet day, and so a short bulletin. 

Topics covered include: 

Japan's June trade data; Taiwan's June export orders; and the Eurozone's contradictory accounts of its May current account balance.