This is the one-month anniversary of the bulletin. 

Today was another dysfuntionally busy day for the world's data, mainly thanks to the profusion of Markit's manufacturing PMIs.  They show different economies at different stages of recovery, and I split them into those which are still facing very tough times; those nearly stabilizing, and those which actually began to grow again in June. 

But the only one which really mattered today was the US ISM, which was very strong.

I also look at recovery signals coming from global international air freight volumes in May, headed by US, with Europe and Asia lagging. 

The end of the month brings a data-crush, so today's bulletin is slightly longer than yesterday's. 

First, I look at what the mass of data from NE Asia for May is telling us about conditions. The conclusion is that the data shows NE Asia's industrial economy is still under the cosh, but domestic demand is beginning to stir nonetheless. 

I also look at the UK's current account balance and revised GDP data for 1Q.  They show the private sector in rapid retreat from its dissavings, and it is likely that by 2Q we'll see the UK showing a private sector savings surplus.  At the same time, although GDP was revised down, Kalecki profits growth was maintained, with the structure moving away from household sector dissaving and back towards net investment spending. Which is good news. 

A busy day from which I selected two strands which I thought are interesting: 

First, I look at the sharply divergent trends in Japan's wholesale sales relative to retail sales. Disentangled, it looks as if the initial disequilibrium between supply and demand which opened up so sharply in March and April had begun to close quite nicely by May. This is almost certainly good news for how Japan's inventory/shipment spikes are being dealth with. 

Second, I look at May's UK money and credit numbers, note the continuing fall in consumer credit, the absence of mortgage lending and the rise in household financial asset holdings, and conclude that whilst that's bad for Kalecki profits in the short term, it looks like the sort of structural change which the UK's growth model badly needs. 

Today's main strands are:

The slightly underwhelming, slightly tentative recovery in consumer confidence indicators reported around the world;

The continued surge in Eurozone money and credit data, which has its root firmly in the ECB's balance sheet expansion. 

Today the main focuses are on:

Early signs of recovery in May's US data, including a focus on the way in which inventory excesses of March and April are being addressed by May;

In addition, I highlight the damage the last few months' unthinkably volatile data must be doing to economists' models, and consequently their ability to forecast the recovery.  There should be a big warning light flashing above their computers: 'What we're going through is incompatible with the models we've got, the current situation impossible according to their parameters'.

I had expected to be talking about European confidence indicators, but neither Germany's Ifo survey, nor France's business climate index provided much of a story. 

Instead, today I look at the US housing market, noting that mortgage applications are consistently at their highest levels since 2012, but home sales are equivocal, and whilst mortgage deliquency rates started the year very low, the mortgage forebearance rate is now in double digits!   

Forebearance isn't delinquency, but if we're going to see 'scarring' on the market, it's here it'll begin to show. 

The day has been crowded with Markit's PMIs for Japan, Europe and the US. 

Whilst these might give a vague general sense of the direction of travel, they should not be taken too seriously.

I explain why. 

Today I herald signs of the longed-for return of dataflows to something resembling normality. 

I also look at what links the disappointment of the Conference Board's leading indicator fall for China, and the unexpected rebound in the Chicago Fed's National activity index. 

Today I look at the UK retail sales results for May, which is the third hard indicator we've had this week about what's happening as Europe begins to think about climbing out of lockdown. 

It's a quiet day for data, with the main item of interest being, the unexpectedly sharp rebound in the Philadelphia Feb business outlook index (aka the Philly Fed). 

In addition, I take a couple of minutes to explain how I compile the Coldwater shocks & surprises indexes, which I believe to be the 'best in class'.