The attempt to provide a clear and direct account of the way the world's economic data is moving. 

Today, we look at the US ADP employment data, and the rise in industrial inventory/shipment ratio. 

In Asia there was little significant data released, but we mention the rise in China Services and Hong Kong PMIs.  

In Europe cast a sceptical eye on the surprisingly modest rise in April's Eurozone unemployment rate, and cast scorn on Italy's contribution. 

A regular bulletin designed to keep you in touch with the twists and turns of global economic data.

A brief run-down of all the economic data that mattered released today. 

This is the Shocks & Surprises Global Weekly Summary for week ending 8th May. 

It takes issue with the idea that 'scar tissue' from the current lockdown will inevitably mean we can expect only a lacklustre recovery. 

I was thinking about how Covid was going to have an impact on globalization.  Things got dark, as I doubt there will be any early cure or vaccine against Covid.  But just as I was getting absolutely down about how I'd not be seeing my overseas friends again any time soon, I realized how ridiculous the idea of de-globalization actually was. Covid can't and won't kill globalization. But it might very well put what I've called 'casual globalization' into eclipse.  

And that has its own consequences, not all of which will necessarily be bad. 

 - Michael 

An audio version of my Shocks & Surprises Global Weekly Summary for the week ending 1st May. 

It's a trial endeavour - I hope it's useful. 

In which I look at the rather improbable improvements in Japanese capital investment spending, and Germany's construction spending. Both would seem to run counter to the rather dark background of trends in return on capital, and profits.  Nevertheless, maybe something surprisingly counter-cyclical is happening. 

In which, as usual, I stand under the cataract of global economic information and try to catch whatever fish I can. 

This episode I also look at the 2019 outcome for China, and argue that it was a year spent treading water - neither waving nor drowning. There were some mildly encouraging signs, but the real story, I think, is that those mild upward inflections were bought at the cost of neglecting long-standing problems, or even abandoning earlier attempts to fix them.   

There's no reason to expect 2020's outcome to be much different. 

Quite a start to the New Year: World War III declared and then seemingly forgotten; global data mildly positive, and the six-week signal in positive territory (glory be).  A good week for Asia and Europe, but a third disappointing week for the US. Quite possibly it really is time now to get on recession-watch for early-mid 2021. 

And finally, I have some questions about what it means when 'capital raising markets' become 'capital redeeming markets', as they did in both the US and Eurozone in 2019. 

Any comments, reactions and queries happily received at [email protected]

Until next week . . .  

Thanks

The holidays bring a much reduced data-flow from US and Europe, whilst Asia continues to report much as usual.  So this episode tracks developments showing up in that data for the two weeks.  In particular, 

I look at the way inventory-clearing is improving US trade data at the cost of depressing industrial activity; 

I look at the strange broad improvement in South Korea's recent data, and question how it can be justified;  

I look at the dramatic erosion of Hong Kong's fiscal position, which unless Beijing gives them a pass, will have to be dealt with;

And I look highlight the two or three piece of data to come from Europe over the holiday period which just might be significant.