The US shocks & surprises index is rocketing upwards, but that's probably because the data we're getting now mainly reflects the situation before the coronavirus resurgence became undeniable. 

So today I take a look at the latest confidence indicators for consumers and business.  And when you look, the shadow of worry is there, darkening the picture and the medium term outlook. 

Today is necessarily all about China, which released its 2Q GDP results, and a bunch of data for June.   What sort of recovery is China seeing already, and what are the prospects for the rest of the year?  I offer some suggestions. 

I also note the continuing quite dramatically positive run of data seen this week, exemplified above all by the US, which today generated more surprises - this time in June retail sales and July's housing industry confidence index.

Today I look at the impact the coronavirus is having on Asian trade balances.  Indonesia and India both usually run a fairly precarious trade position. But this year, as domestic demand has slumped, trade positions are improving dramatically.  India, for example, managed an $800mn trade surplus in June - so far as I can tell that's the first surplus since March 2002!  

I also look at how the timing of Ramadan is affecting Indonesia's recent trade performance. 

Today was an unusually quiet / insignificant day for data.  

The one potentially significant piece of data came from the NY Fed's June series of expectations surveys, which, apart from showing receding inflation expectations, highlighted the underlying caution about labour markets and earnings growth which looks likely to restrain household spending in the recovery of the coming 12m. 

Elsewhere, I note the dramatic rebound in Australia new home sales - thanks to a lavish government program of grants - and India finally reconstructing CPI results for April and May as it released the June index. 

The main item today is to highlight the dramatic improvement in Japan's terms of trade during 2Q - they have improved 9.5% qoq and 10.9% yoy. This is pretty much unprecedented, and will make an impact not only on corporate cashflows, profits and ROEs, but will also make Japan's second quarter national accounts really difficult to read. 

I make brief mention of slightly better than expected manufacturing output results from India, France and Italy  for May - despite the fact that they're all still down 25%-35% yoy.

I mention the 1.2% yoy fall in Taiwan's average monthly earnings, which were hit by slumps in overtime and bonus payments. 

This was a solidly positive day for economic data, but offering sadly little in the way of analytical interest.  Nonetheless, two things stood out:

First, the great volatility of Japan's machinery orders continued in May, so I take this opportunity to unravel what's happening when you strip out the very considerable noise. And there is a coherent story. 

Second, I look at US wholesale sector numbers for May.  These were better than expected, with sales rising and inventories falling, with a bigger and earlier recovery in the inventory/shipment ratio than expected.  In particular, the strength in the auto sector supply chain signals are impressive. 

Two main concentrations today, both in the US. 

First, although the headlines from May's JOLTS job openings were unspectacular, the recovery in hirings, and - just as importantly - the recovery in 'quits' make this a very encouraging account of labour markets.  This was more evidence against the fear that coronavirus will leave a 'scarring' on US labour markets. 

Second, there was a very different picture from July's IBD/TIPP economic optimism index, which relapsed unexpectedly to the weakest since 2016.  Is this coronavirus redux, or is it responding to the broader deterioration of the political environment? 

I also briefly note dissapointments in Germany's May industrial data, France's trade and current account deficits, and Australia AiG services PMI.

Today I look at: 

The unambiguously bullish result of the ISM's non-manufacturing composite index for June - pointing out the dramatic divergences within sectors, and the overall likely impact on 2Q GDP.

Germany's disappointing factory orders, propped up as they are by orders from the Eurozone ex-Germany which are, apparently, surging owing to spectacular recovery in demand for Germany's transport equipment.

Eurozone retail sales data, where the 17.8% mom rise in May's sales was lopsidedly generated by Germany, whilst other Eurozone majors continued to slump. 

With the US on holiday, and most Statistics bureaus resting after the week's heft exertions, there's little 'hard' economic news. 

But in its place, we have yet more of Markit's PMIs - this time for services.  This is the economic equivalent of junk food - ubiquitous, tasty if you're in the mood, but of little nutritional value. 

So, in the absence of hard news, I update you on the movements of Coldwaters' best-in-class global and regional Shocks & Surprises indexes. 

Today concentrates on what the labour market data from the US and Europe is telling us about how bad things are as we come out of the worst impact of coronavirus.  

Unemployment is counted differently in the US and Europe, and we have to consider Europe's various furlough schemes to get an idea of what is really happening. 

In the US, by contrast,  the data is pretty explicit about the extent of the problems, but June's data was already beginning to show the a solid return of people to the labour markets, with rising labour participation rates which will limit the extent of the dreaded 'economic scarring' to come.