I know what the mainstream financial media is telling you. There is a “chance” of a  recession hitting the USA economy, but, “odds are” a recession won’t happen. This is a total lie and a huge misrepresentation of some basic facts. When you understand how the bond markets work (at a very simplistic level) and then factor in what the Federal Reserve says it will do with its balance sheet reduction (”quantitative tightening”), there is an extremely likely chance a recession happens. The cherry on top of this theory is using some recent history in regards to the last time the Federal Reserve attempted reducing the balance sheet. The statistic I came across I didn’t even realize was a data point, but wow... knowing it is... goodness! I’m planning for a recession and while I’m not here to give financial advice, all I can say is, you might want to consider some recession planning. The system is a mess and the only way to clean it up is through some massive pain, which will come in the form of a recession!