Africa Aware

Tanzania's October 2025 election will mark President Samia Suluhu Hassan's first as a presidential candidate, despite her holding office since 2021. A former vice-president, President Samia came to power following the sudden death of her predecessor, and is widely anticipated to win a new term for her CCM party – extending their unbroken rule in Tanzania since the country's independence in 1961. Key questions surrounding the 2025 polls include the systematic exclusion of leading opposition candidates, tightened restrictions on media, increases in reported abductions and attacks on activists, and the limited presence of external observer missions.

In this episode, Thomas Kibwana, Anna Bwana and Deus Valentine Rweyemamu join Chatham House's Fergus Kell and Lisa Musumba to discuss the lead-up to Tanzania's election and the long-term future for the country.

Related content:

Tanzania election: Erosion of democracy will also come at the cost of economic potential

Reviving Tanzania's regional leadership and global engagement

Côte d'Ivoire is widely regarded as a regional powerhouse amid increased political instability and fragmentation in West Africa. However, the country has also been marked by violent conflicts and repeated bouts of political crisis in recent history. With the October 2025 elections fast approaching, Côte d'Ivoire faces another decisive moment – President Alassane Ouattara has confirmed that he will seek a fourth term, while a slew of prominent opposition figures including former president, Laurent Gbagbo, Tidjane Thiam, Charles Blé Goudé, and Guillaume Soro, have been barred from challenging the incumbent at the polls.

In this episode, the leader of Côte d'Ivoire's main opposition party, Parti Démocratique de la Côte d'Ivoire — Rassemblement Démocratique Africain, Tidjane Thiam discusses his political aspirations, the hurdles faced in the lead-up to the upcoming elections and the state of Ivorian democracy moving forward.

Find out more:

Guinea and Côte d'Ivoire: Stumbling Totems of Democracy

The public health systems in Africa are under growing pressure. The sharp 70% drop in official development assistance (ODA) risks weakening critical health programmes, while a rise in public health emergencies continues to stretch already fragile infrastructure.

The Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) – the public health agency of the African Union – recognises that these are not isolated challenges. They present a fundamental threat to Africa's political, social, and economic resilience, with far-reaching implications to global stability.

In this episode, Dr Jean Kaseya, Director General at the Africa CDC, discusses the agency's mandate to support AU member states in advancing public health priorities and strengthening the capacity of national health institutions to respond to disease threats.

Related content:

The global response to the mpox outbreak in Africa will show if lessons from COVID-19 have been learned

A fair pandemic treaty is unlikely, but poorer countries have healthy options

Africa's Health Financing in a New Era – April, 2025

The uptick in armed conflicts across Africa in recent years has challenged peacebuilding efforts and upset a trajectory towards continental stability.

In this episode, HE Ambassador Bankole Adeoye, AU Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security the AU's goal of silencing the guns by 2030, the evolution of peacekeeping, and his vision for a more peaceful and secure Africa.

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Africa Aware: The future of African peace and security

Tensions in Tigray could spark war between Ethiopia and Eritrea – disaster must be avoided

Navigating a path beyond regional division is essential for West Africa's security

South Sudan's shaky peace is at risk of collapse. Can it be saved?

In this episode, Tim Eaton and Lubna Yousef discuss their latest research on how transnational human smuggling has fuelled conflict in Libya through a systems analysis of three key transit cities – Kufra, Sebha and Zawiya.

Using this approach, their research examines the roles played by conflict and social dynamics in the expansion of human smuggling and trafficking – thus helping uncover critical gaps in policies aimed at addressing the rapid rise of migration.

This episode was produced with support from the Cross-Border Conflict Evidence, Policy, and Trends (XCEPT) research programme, funded by UK International Development.

Related content:

Tackling the Niger–Libya migration route

Africa Aware: From Nigeria to Libya: Linked through migration and armed conflict

In this episode, Professor Carlos Lopes discusses what the African Union's G20 membership means for Africa's economic and geopolitical influence on the global stage.

In this episode, Khalid Omer Yousif discusses how Sudan's broadest anti-war, pro-democracy coalition, Tagadom, aims to bring civilian voices to the fore in a war dictated by military powers, and their plans to the end of Sudan's war despite mounting atrocities engulfing the country.

Related content:

• https://www.chathamhouse.org/events/all/open-event/civilian-priorities-ending-war-sudan
• https://www.chathamhouse.org/2024/06/strong-civilian-coalition-vital-avert-sudans-disintegration
• https://www.chathamhouse.org/2024/09/war-sudan-intensifying-coordinated-pressure-needed-prevent-countrys-fragmentation
• https://www.chathamhouse.org/2024/03/africa-aware-how-gold-fuels-war-sudan

For years now, Somalia has experienced the effects of not only climate change, but also climate extremes – oscillating between devastating droughts and fierce floods. Ranked as the most climate-vulnerable country in the world, Somalia faces lasting environmental and socio-political challenges due to the frequent extreme climate events; furthermore, efforts to secure timely climate financing are hampered due to ongoing conflict in the country.

In this episode, Abdihakim Yusuf Ali Ainte and Maram Ahmed discuss ways to turn Somalia's climate vulnerability to climate resilience. They explore the environmental and socio-political challenges brought by devastating climate events, which exacerbate ongoing conflict and humanitarian challenges such as food security, displacement, and poverty. They also discuss innovative climate financing methods for improved climate adaptation.

Related content:

• https://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/the-world-today/2024-09/developing-countries-need-cheaper-loans-or-world-will-miss-its
• https://www.chathamhouse.org/2022/11/africas-maritime-agency-cannot-be-overlooked
• https://www.chathamhouse.org/2022/10/africa-aware-drought-horn-africa
• https://www.chathamhouse.org/2022/12/towards-just-transition-africa

There is a deeply entrenched view both within and outside of Nigeria that corruption represents an intrinsic feature of Nigerian society.

In reality, however, the issue of corruption is more complex and driven by a range of social and behavioural factors. It is these underlying factors sustaining corruption in Nigeria that the Chatham House Africa Programme's Social Norms and Accountable Governance (SNAG) research project seeks to diagnose and address – posing the central question: 'why do people do what they do?'

In this episode, Dr Leena Koni Hoffmann and Dr Raj Navanit Patel discuss how and why the SNAG research project came about, explain the social norms methodology that underpins their research, and share key findings from the project for policymakers and Nigerian citizens.

Odeh Friday (Country Director, Accountability Lab Nigeria) discusses Accountability Lab Nigeria's engagement with government officials who have rejected corrupt practices and changing the narrative on corruption in Nigeria.

The Social Norms and Accountable Governance (SNAG) research project is supported by the MacArthur Foundation.

Related content:

Collective Action on Corruption in Nigeria

Pass-mark bribery in Nigerian schools

Vote-selling behaviour and democratic dissatisfaction in Nigeria

In this episode, Wenjie Chen, Deputy Division Chief of the Regional Studies Division at the International Monetary Fund's African Department, discusses the IMF Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa titled 'A Tepid and Pricey Recovery'.

The International Monetary Fund's global economic outlook for 2024, released this January, cites a resilient global economy with positive projections for the year ahead. Africa is expected to be the second fastest-growing economic region in the world in 2024, following Asia. Despite this positive forecast, there are concerns about the rising costs for African countries to meet their debt obligations and a funding squeeze that hinders the region's economic growth potential.

In this episode, Wenjie Chen, Deputy Division Chief of the Regional Studies Division at the International Monetary Fund's African Department, discusses the IMF Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa titled "A Tepid and Pricey Recovery," released in April 2024. She highlights key findings from the report and contextualizes the IMF's recommendations for harnessing Africa's economic growth potential amid inevitable shocks.