Independent Thinking

American voters inflicted a crushing defeat on the Republican Party in the US midterm elections, signalling clear dissatisfaction with President Trump's agenda. Now many issues in US politics are up in the air – from the use of tariffs to policy on Iran, Ukraine and beyond.

How will the Democrats use their new powers? What will the result mean for Trump's war on Iran and the stability of global energy supplies? And how will the repudiation of Trump's second term echo around the world?

Bronwen Maddox is joined by Laurel Rapp, Lindsay Newman and Andrew Payne of Chatham House's US and North America Programme to make sense of a seismic week.

Produced by Podmasters for Chatham House, with thanks to Stephen Farrell and Sara Seth.

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Comment | After Trump's midterm defeat, Russia and China will encounter a cooler US

Comment | Trump is set to redefine the lame duck presidency

Comment | What will historic US midterm results mean for the future of Democrats and Republicans?

Event recording | Arseniy Yatsenyuk, former prime minister of Ukraine

Magazine issue | The World Today autumn issue

Academic Journal | International Affairs

Audio | Africa Aware🎧

Audio | The Climate Briefing🎧

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Israel faces weeks of political horse-trading after the most pivotal election in the country's history delivered no clear result. Neither victorious nor vanquished, Benjamin Netanyahu is still prime minister and lives to attempt another coalition negotiation – and perhaps launch further strikes on Iran to shore up his interim power. Arab parties have secured a record number of seats, but the question remains whether opposition Jewish parties will enter a coalition with them.

Will anyone do a deal with Netanyahu? What does it all mean in a deeply polarized society riven by settler violence, personality-centred politics and with a seemingly permanent security emergency?

To examine the election results and what they mean for Israel's future, Bronwen Maddox is joined by The Economist's Israel editor Anshel Pfeffer, plus Zizette Darkazally and Yossi Mekelberg from Chatham House's Middle East and North Africa Programme.

Produced by Podmasters for Chatham House, with thanks to Stephen Farrell and Sara Seth.

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Video | Israel election: What happens next?

Magazine article | Israel's global isolation is growing – so why is it off the election agenda?

Policy paper | The UK can and should show leadership to ensure the viability of a Palestinian state. Here's how to start

Magazine issue | The World Today autumn issue

Academic Journal | International Affairs

Audio | Africa Aware🎧

Audio | The Climate Briefing🎧

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As the world becomes more unstable and the demands for critical minerals from China and big tech increases, can greater international attention on Africa translate into greater power and prosperity for African nations?

Can African states leverage their huge deposits of natural resources and the youngest population in the world into more infrastructure, better engagement with international partners and greater representation for Africa on international bodies, including the UN Security Council?

Our experts explore the new global opportunities for African nations, the increasingly transactional approach of the US, trade deals with the EU, the Accra Reset, creating regional value chains, Russia's involvement in conflicts in Africa and why international organizations need to open up their decision-making bodies.

In a special edition for Black History Month, Bronwen Maddox is joined by Tighisti Amare, director of our Africa Programme, and Lisa Musumba, host of our sister podcast, 'Africa Aware'.

Produced by Podmasters for Chatham House, with thanks to Stephen Farrell and Sara Seth.

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Video | Baroness Amos, President of Chatham House, speaking at a Black History Month event in mid-October about 'Reparative justice'

Research paper | The response to debt distress in Africa and the role of China

Research paper | Gold and the war in Sudan

Event | Ghana's President John Dramani Mahama on navigating a changing global order

Event recording | Reckoning or rhetoric: Is now the time for reparative justice on the global stage?

Magazine issue | The World Today autumn issue

Academic Journal | International Affairs

Audio | Africa Aware🎧

Audio | The Climate Briefing🎧

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President Trump and President Putin's back-door deal to release hundreds of thousands of tonnes of Russian diesel into international markets has revitalized the Kremlin's war effort and left President Zelenskyy incandescent. Is the US president sacrificing Ukraine in the hope that it will help him in the midterms? Can Europe bridge the gap in support? And can Ukraine survive another winter under Russian attack?

Bronwen Maddox is joined by Orysia Lutsevych, deputy director of the Russia and Eurasia Programme and head of the Ukraine Forum at Chatham House; General Sir Richard Barrons, former commander of the Joint Forces Command in the UK Armed Forces and a senior consulting fellow with our International Security Programme; and Sharon Hudson-Dean, associate fellow with Chatham House's US and North America Programme.

Produced by Podmasters for Chatham House, with thanks to Stephen Farrell and Sara Seth.

Comment | After Trump's Russian diesel deal, will Europe give Ukraine the support it needs?

Comment | Why the US midterms are a rare foreign policy election

Research paper | Why a 'whole-of-society' model is essential for Ukraine's recovery

Magazine issue | The World Today autumn issue

Academic Journal | International Affairs

Audio | Africa Aware🎧

Audio | The Climate Briefing🎧

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The rightward movement in democracies in Europe and beyond shows little sign of slowing. Germany has elected its first far-right regional government in Saxony-Anhalt. In France, voter anger with Emmanuel Macron puts the Rassemblement National's Marine Le Pen in pole position for the presidency. In Spain, Pedro Sánchez called a snap election in an attempt to mobilise the beleaguered left around Spain's housing crisis. And Flávio Bolsonaro's success in the first round of Brazil's presidential elections suggests a second round of anti-woke, pro-Trump bolsonarismo is on the cards. What is driving politics to the populist right? And what does it mean for global security, stability and efforts to preserve what's left of the rules-based order?

Bronwen Maddox is joined by Grégoire Roos, director of our Europe and Russia and Eurasia Programmes; Nic Lawley, special adviser to the director of Chatham House; and Dr Christopher Sabatini, director of our Latin America Programme.

Produced by Podmasters, with thanks to Sara Seth and Stephen Farrell.

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Comment | Sánchez's gamble: This 'all-in' election will have international impact

Comment | Brazil's presidential election is more than just another polarized contest

Comment | Brazil's Amazon rainforest is at risk if Bolsonaro wins – but its low-carbon economy is here to stay

Magazine issue | The World Today autumn issue

Academic Journal | International Affairs

Audio | Africa Aware🎧

Audio | The Climate Briefing🎧

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The Iranian-backed Houthi rebels' capture of Yemen's port city of Mocha means that Iran now effectively controls two crucial waterways in the region – the Bab al-Mandab Strait to the Red Sea and thus the Suez Canal, as well as the Hormuz Strait. Why has this simmering conflict exploded again? What do Iran and the Houthis want? How serious is this potential blockade for world trade and energy supply? And could the Houthis become a regional power, in economic terms even more powerful than Iran?

Bronwen Maddox is joined by director of Chatham House's Middle East and North Africa Programme, Dr Sanam Vakil; Horn of Africa specialist Ahmed Soliman; and Yemen and Gulf specialist, Farea Al-Muslimi, who joins us from Jordan.

Produced by Podmasters, with thanks to Sara Seth and Stephen Farrell.

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Comment | New energy and trade routes could bypass Hormuz and change the Middle East. But major challenges remain

Magazine article | Farea al-Muslimi: 'I wrote my own death statement 5 times'

Comment | Escaping the Hormuz trap: What should an agreement to reopen the Strait look like?

Magazine issue | The World Today autumn issue

Audio | Africa Aware🎧

Audio | The Climate Briefing🎧

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President Donald Trump welcomes Xi Jinping to Washington with the US-China dynamic in a moment of historic flux. China is rising economically and militarily, while the US is mired in the Iran war, alienating allies and pursuing Trump's unpredictable trade and tariff disputes.

What do the two leaders want from this meeting, and will they get it? Can they reconcile their differing economic powers, the competition for critical minerals, and their radically contrasting visions for artificial intelligence.

And in the longer term: who will dominate the 21st century? Does Xi really want to retake Taiwan for China before his time in power ends? Or is the US-Chinese dynamic more complex and perhaps less alarming?

To unpick these threads Bronwen Maddox is joined by three experts from Chatham House's Asia-Pacific Programme: programme director Ben Bland, senior research fellow Dr Yu Jie and associate fellow Dr Bill Hayton.

Produced by Podmasters, with thanks to Sara Seth and Stephen Farrell.

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Magazine article | What the West fails to grasp about China's strategy to lead the world

Comment | Trump–Xi summit: Why the US and China should not underestimate each other

Comment | China is weathering the Hormuz energy crisis. But copying its model comes with risks

Magazine issue | The World Today autumn issue

Audio | Africa Aware🎧

Audio | The Climate Briefing🎧

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A call by leaders of the tech giants on the frontier of Artificial Intelligence to 'slow the pace' of its development has sparked debate over the risks associated with AI.

Does AI represent an existential threat, and if so, how urgent are the warnings? Or can humanity harness this powerful technology to our benefit?

Our experts discuss the implications for international security, from cyber to the increasing use of AI in today's conflict zones, and the dynamics of the race toward the cutting edge – not only among industry competitors, but also in the realm of geopolitics.

Bronwen Maddox is joined by Dr Marion Messmer, director of our International Security Programme, and Alex Krasodomski, director of our Digital Society Programme.

Produced by Podmasters, with thanks to Sara Seth and Stephen Farrell.

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Magazine article | UK's armed forces can keep control of their AI kill switch – here's how

Magazine article | 'We are at a moment of peril with AI ... The sooner [it is regulated], the better'

Policy paper | How AI could change the world

Magazine issue | The World Today autumn issue

Audio | Africa Aware🎧

Audio | The Climate Briefing🎧

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Twenty five years ago the deadliest terrorist attacks in human history, on 11 September 2001, saw 2,977 people killed in New York, Washington, and aboard the planes hijacked by 19 members of Al-Qaeda.

An immediate response followed with the US-led 'war on terror', which saw Western forces occupy Afghanistan and Iraq, and two decades of military operations across the Middle East and beyond.

We look back over a quarter of a century to examine the longer-term consequences of 9/11.

We examine how US foreign policy and military power changed perceptions of America and its allies. We look at the consequences for a Middle East still riven by conflict. And we discuss how the focus on counterterrorism left the US positioned to deal with a new multipolar era in which it faces challenges from Russia and the rise of China.

This week's episode is hosted by Laurel Rapp, director of Chatham House's US and North America Programme, standing in for Bronwen Maddox.

She is joined by General Sir Richard Barrons, a senior consulting fellow with the International Security Programme. Also by Farea Al-Muslimi, a research fellow at Chatham House's Middle East and North Africa Programme. And by Jason Burke, International Security Correspondent of the Guardian.

Produced by Podmasters, with thanks to Stephen Farrell.

About Independent Thinking

Independent Thinking is a weekly international affairs podcast hosted by our director Bronwen Maddox, in conversation with leading policymakers, journalists and Chatham House experts providing insight on the latest international issues.

More ways to listen: Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

Explore our other Chatham House podcasts.

The United Nations convenes for its 81st General Assembly next week amid turmoil around the world that it seeks to bring together. The conflicts in Iran, Ukraine and Gaza, and the US, China and Russia's undermining of the rules-based international order cast a shadow over UNGA. Can the organization renew itself for a dangerous multipolar world? Or is it doomed to the same fate as the League of Nations?

Bronwen Maddox discusses the UN's present and future with Heather Hurlburt, associate fellow with our US and North America Programme; Marc Weller, head of our Global Governance and Security Centre; and Zizette Darkazally, associate fellow with our Middle East and North Africa Programme.

Produced by Podmasters, with thanks to Sara Seth and Stephen Farrell.

Explore Chatham House's latest:

Research paper| What Haitians want from the next phase of UN and international support

Comment | Can the UN close the global AI gap?

Policy paper | What the Burnham government should do in its foreign policy

Magazine issue | The World Today summer issue

Audio | Africa Aware🎧

Audio | The Climate Briefing🎧

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