It's so often that we think of talent as something that we're born with, like the color of our hair, or the color of our eyes. We assume that the surest sign of talent is early,  instant, effortless success, i.e., being a prodigy. Basically, this is just not the case – there's a well established body of research that shows that our assumptions about talent are just…false. Early success turns out to be a weak predictor of long-term success!