Altamar - Navigating the High Seas of Global Politics

2019 has been a whirlwind of upheaval around the world: the rocky U.S.-China trade relationship, tiny Guyana’s oil bonanza, protests in Hong Kong, the return of Peronism to Argentina, growing cyberwarfare and worldwide attacks on press freedom. It begs the question – what does 2020 have in store? We identified the top five trends we believe will shape the international political stage in 2020: citizen unrest, the decline of the West, the climate emergency, end of privacy as we know it, and the new face of trade. Joining us to debate this list, prolific author and journalist David Rothkopf peers into the crystal ball and discuss the global issues to track in the coming year. Rothkopf served as U.S. Under Secretary of Commerce for International Trade during the Clinton Administration and is also a visiting scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

https://altamar.us/a-look-ahead-where-is-2020-going/

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Twenty-five years after apartheid officially ended in South Africa, the country is in the news for all the wrong reasons: one of the highest unemployment rates in the world at 58%, junk status government bonds, slowing GDP growth, and violent crime. Can President Cyril Ramaphosa of the African National Congress turn things around as his administration approaches its first-year anniversary in office? Ann Bernstein, who heads the Centre for Development and Enterprise, South Africa’s leading policy center for social and economic development, joins Altamar to explain how the nation can tackle the myriad of challenges. Bernstein was a member of the Transition Team and later the Board of the Development Bank of Southern Africa, and is the author of “The Case for Business in Developing Economies.”

https://altamar.us/south-africa-slump/

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In 2015, Exxon Mobil discovered in Guyana one of the largest oil and gas reserves in decades. It is slated to begin production in early 2020. While this bonanza promises countless opportunities for the tiny South American country, it remains to be seen whether Guyana has the infrastructure in place to manage the massive influx of new petroleum revenue. Will it follow the successful examples of Norway or Botswana and avoid the so-called “Resource Curse” – or fall victim to its own good fortune? David Goldwyn, world-renowned energy guru and Chairman of the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center’s Energy Advisory Board, explains how Guyana can establish guardrails to combat corruption and transform revenue streams into newfound prosperity for its citizens. 

https://altamar.us/guyana-sudden-riches/

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On December 10, Argentina will inaugurate Alberto Fernandez as President amid a medley of economic woes: recession, inflation, poverty, foreign debt and currency devaluation. But how the longtime previously-behind-the-scenes political operative for the Peronist party plans to tackle the crisis remains a mystery. Fernandez was vague and elusive about his proposals on the campaign trail. Ben Gedan, director of the Woodrow Wilson Center's Argentina Project and former South America director on the National Security Council at the White House, explains what we can expect from the incoming administration. Despite Fernandez’s decisive victory over center-right incumbent Mauricio Macri, there are more questions than answers about the direction he will take the South American giant.

https://altamar.us/unsteady-argentina/

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Ukraine is popping up everywhere these days, from President Trump’s impeachment process to Russia’s hidden-in-plain-sight occupation of the former Soviet state’s Crimean region. Why does it seem like one of Europe’s poorest countries is punching above its weight in global headlines? Former US Ambassador to Ukraine Steven Pifer joins Altamar to help look past the daily news cycles and break down the country’s geopolitics. Pifer, an expert at the Brookings Institution in Washington DC and fellow at Stanford University’s Institute for International Studies, explains why Ukrainian President Zelensky must avoid America’s domestic clashes and push through his reformist agenda. 

https://altamar.us/whats-the-deal-with-ukraine/

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Understanding President Erdogan’s military offensive against Kurdish forces in northern Syria requires a breakdown of Turkey’s politics, internal strife and shifting identity. Ece Temelkuran, renowned Turkish journalist and author of How to Lose a Country: The 7 Steps from Democracy to Dictatorship, joined Altamar just before the momentous developments. Temelkuran shows how “Erdogan treated an illness in Turkey with another illness,” the origins of his Middle East policies, and why the strongman ruler still needs a popularity boost.

https://altamar.us/the-turkey-paradox-understanding-erdogan/

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Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the BJP Hindu nationalist party won a landslide reelection in May 2019 – but political and economic unrest are shortening the honeymoon. After years of sharp economic upturn and high growth, India has been underperforming since late 2018. Nisha Biswal, President of the U.S. India Business Council at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, and former Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs, joins Altamar to explain the sluggish Indian economy and how Modi’s government can tackle structural economic issues to achieve growth.

https://altamar.us/slowdown-in-india/

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Cyber crises are everywhere you turn now – from Russia’s interference in the 2016 U.S. presidential elections to company-wide data breaches. But as technology and bad actors keep shifting, governments around the world are struggling to keep up. Dr. Mark Kuhr, former advisor to the National Security Agency and co-founder of Synack, an industry-leading security platform, explains the challenges for cybersecurity – and why the solution doesn’t have to be Big Brother.

More at https://altamar.us/the-future-of-cybersecurity/

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President Donald Trump’s attempt to buy Greenland from Denmark was met with amusement and derision. But as climate change opens new frontiers, the Arctic region is becoming the world’s hottest real estate. The icy tundra is now a geopolitical playing field where global powers are, with varying success, trying to stake a claim. Former Vice Commandant Peter Neffenger spent four years leading Arctic strategy at the U.S. Coast Guard. He warns that the United States and Europe have fallen far behind Russia and China in the race to control vast untapped natural resources, rare mineral deposits, and new trade routes. While the glaciers melt, there’s no thaw in sight for the Arctic power struggle.

https://altamar.us/battle-for-the-arctic/

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The politics of Venezuela are intoxicating. Mass corruption, Russian troops, international sanctions, and tweetstorms from Senator Marco Rubio, John Bolton and so many others make for vivid headlines. But amidst the scandal and intrigue, the plight of Venezuelans forced to flee Nicolas Maduro’s regime has failed to attract the same attention. David Smolansky, chair of the working group on the Venezuelan migration and refugee crisis at the Organization of American States, joins Altamar to discuss the overlooked aspects of Latin America’s largest refugee crisis in history. 

https://altamar.us/venezuela-other-crisis/

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