Alternative Visions

 Today’s show looks at the important key economies of the world as a growing number begin to slip into recession: new data shows Japan’s economy has been contracting the past six months. Germany has entered recession. So too has the UK. The Eurozone economy as a whole is stagnant. Global manufacturing has been contracting for some months among the G7 economies. Meanwhile China faces growing problems in its property (construction) sector and with emerging deflation in consumer goods prices as producer prices also continue to fall for the past 16 months.  Rasmus notes China home sales are now 1/6 of their peak at end of 2021 and then explains why deflation is even more serious than inflation. In the US, retail sales have turned negative, manufacturing is stagnant, and housing remains down 40% from its prior peak. At the same time both consumer and producer prices have started to rise once again. Can the US economy reach a ‘soft landing’ when the rest of the world key economies are slowing or in recession? (Next Week: Ukraine War military and political analysis as we enter 3rd year of war Feb. 25, 2024. Why a larger Russian offensive is imminent)

 Dr. Rasmus analyzes the Tucker Carlson-Putin Interview in detail today. What did Putin say about the war, its causes, prospects and future of NATO?

Today’s show addresses the US media’s practice of reporting the most favorable statistics on jobs, unemployment, inflation, wages, GDP from the mountain of data provided by the US Labor and Commerce departments. Dr. Rasmus gives a deep dive into the statistical reports to show why job gains last month may not be 353,000 but much less; why Biden’s claim of 3.1m jobs created last year may be only a third of that; why inflation is higher than reported; why one US survey says unemployment rate is 3.7% but another table in that same survey indicates 8% unemployment rate; why real wages didn’t rise 4.5% last year for tens of millions of American workers but much less.

Today’s show is dedicated to dissecting the just released US first report on 2023 GDP by the Commerce Dept. Dr. Rasmus breaks down the various contributing elements to US GDP (Consumption, Business Investment, Government Spending, and Net Exports) to identify where the changes in GDP in 2023 were strongest and weakest.  Explained as well is how the methodology for estimating inflation (GDP deflator price index) serves to low ball price changes and in turn boost the real GDP number of 2.5% for 2023. The methodology behind the GDP deflator is explained, and compared to the CPI (Consumer Price Index) with its higher estimate of inflation. Rasmus explains how changes to definition of GDP a decade ago also artificially boosted real GDP. Consumer spending held up in 2023 due to record credit card spending, drawdowns of savings and a surge in auto buying. Meanwhile, serious negative trends in business spending on equipment and housing construction continued in 2023 offset by a surprise jump in business spending on structures like factories; imports slowed faster than exports, and a sharp increase in 2023 in government spending on defense and state and local government all contributed (along with the low inflation adjustment) to the somewhat unexpected 2.5% GDP rise in 2023. Dr. Rasmus concludes, however, that the weaknesses within GDP do not ensure a ‘soft landing’ in 2024, which forecasts are saying will grow only 1-1.25% with recession in the first half of the year.

Whether ‘soft landing’ of the US economy—with inflation assumed to continue to abate and GDP to continue to grow—is in the works is the main topic of today’s show. Explained in depth is how US price index estimates are key to determine whether ‘soft landing’ will occur. Dr. Rasmus explains how the 3 US price indexes (CPI, PCE, GDP Deflator) are basically estimated, and why the lowest inflation estimator, the GDP Deflator, which is used to come up with GDP numbers, artificially boosts real GDP thus making a ‘soft landing’ look more likely. Rasmus also explains how artificial boosts to GDP were made possible by the redefinitions to GDP introduced in 2013 and in effect ever since.  Explained is if the CPI were used to adjust for inflation instead of GDP deflator, and if the questionable 2013 redefinitions are backed out of GDP calculation, 2023 GDP would now be stagnant at best; and if a more accurate CPI were used (with an inflation rate of around 5-6%) GDP 2023 would already be contracting, with a further contraction coming in first half 2024 now that prices for energy and other services are rising again. Rasmus thus argues Soft landing scenarios are exaggerated by the Inflation indexes (especially the GDP deflator) as well as result of past GDP redefinitions. In the last third of today’s show Dr. Rasmus previews some of the content and themes in his latest forthcoming 2024 book, “American Empire in Decline”.