Alternative Visions

Today’s show covers the two topics. In first half hour, yesterday’s US GDP preliminary numbers are debunked. Why the 3rd Qtr net growth is only 2% not 7.4% and why annualized numbers showing 33.1% should be totally disregarded as phony statistical exaggerations. What’s behind the 3rd quarter growth, industry by industry, why it reflects slowing momentum for the economy, not growth, and why the fourth quarter (and late 3rd) indicators reflect a possible negative 4th quarter. Definitely a ‘W-Shape’ trajectory and not at all a V-shape per Trump and apologists. Big factors driving a negative 4th quarter are no fiscal stimulus, resurgence of Covid in worst wave to date over winter, and political instability post November election.  Second half of the show addresses the growing evidence of Trump’s plans to refuse to leave office by stopping the mail in ballot vote count in swing states, with help of courts include his 6-3 majority on SCOTUS. The likely scenario is discussed, as the electoral college vote is 244 v. 248

Today’s show starts with an analysis and critique of last night’s 2nd Presidential Debate between Trump & Biden, and why the quality of the debate on both sides signals the decline in the level of ability in candidates the US political elite are now providing voters to choose from as the US ‘Triple Crisis’ (health, economic, political)worsens in the beginning of the 3rd decade of this century. What Trump said and didn’t say; what Biden could have said but didn’t!  The non-debate. The show’s second half gives an update on the ‘On Again, Off Again’ fiscal stimulus negotiations, the new unemployment claims numbers reported yesterday, and why fourth quarter US economy will greatly underperform the 3rd quarter. (For more on the stimulus, read check out my latest article ‘A Short History of the ‘On Again, Off Again’ Fiscal Stimulus Negotiations’ on my blog, http://jackrasmus.com, and join me on Twitter for my latest day to day, and hourly, commentaries on the negotiations at @drjackrasmus.)

Dr. Rasmus provides an update on latest status of stimulus negotiations in Congress this past week: How Pelosi refused to fall for Trump-McConnell latest trick. What’s possible next week. Much of today’s show discusses the recent Nobel prize in economics given to two Standford University professors for their contribution to showing how (auction) markets are efficient. Rasmus explains how their view is just another iteration of ‘efficient markets theory’ debunked by the events of 2008-09. Nevertheless, the Nobel group keeps giving awards to pro-free market theories that argue capitalist markets are efficient and therefore superior to government. Is it economic ‘science’ or economic ‘ideology’, supporting the fiction that markets always produce the best prices—and therefore the government should sell off (privatize) public goods (wireless spectrum) using auction markets at a lower price than it might sell otherwise. What are the hallmarks and indicators of ‘economic ideology’ (ideology defined as misrepresentation of reality, facts, & truth)?

Dr. Rasmus discusses the ‘on again, off again’ negotiations on a fiscal stimulus package. Trump’s 5 flip flops this past week, for and against, a stimulus bill. What’s behind the vacillation. Democrats’ positions, as Pelosi-Shumer, deal with trying to negotiate with Trump. Will there be a fiscal stimulus package before the November 3 election? Rasmus recounts the recent history of negotiations for a stimulus since July, when the Democrat-US House ‘Heroes’ bill proposal and the Republican Senate’s ‘Heals’ bill proposal were the starting points, as the economic effects of the March ‘Cares Act’ ran out. How Trump scuttled negotiations in August, what happened in September, and how he scuttled it again last week. Why Trump has reversed positions so many times. Today’s latest rumors of elements of a deal. Why it has a big hill to climb in McConnell’s Senate and why odds are against a deal by November 3. Dr. Rasmus describes the deteriorating economic conditions in the US today in terms of jobs, business closures, bankruptcies, and coming financial defaults. (read Dr. Rasmus’ latest article, ‘Trump Scuttles a Fiscal Stimulus Deal…Again!’ on his blog at jackrasmus.com. Join him for day to day commentary on Twitter at @drjackrasmus)

Dr. Rasmus dissects and analyzes the content (or lack thereof) in the 1st Presidential debate held this past week between Trump and Biden. While media heads focus on the ‘form’ of the debate and Trump’s attempt to brow-beat both his opponent and the moderator, more interesting was the ‘content’. What was missing about America’s worsening triple crisis: health care, economic, climate. The fourth crisis now ripening: political and constitutional instability coming with Nov. 3 election. And what about the roots of financial instability now brewing at the foundation of it all and threatening in 2021?  Rasmus opens the show with brief comments and updates on today’s September US jobs report, the current negotiations on an economic stimulus hanging by a thread in Congress, and Trump’s ‘October Surprise’ announcement of infected with Covid yesterday. (Read Dr. Rasmus’s just written blog piece, ‘The 1st  Presidential Debate and Worse to Come’ on his blog, at jackrasmus.com.

Today’s show welcomes two guests from the LCIP, Labor-Community Independent Party, that recently held a founding conference last week. A second in our series discussing formation of independent parties challenging the Democrats and Republicans in the post-2020 elections cycle. Why a 3rd party now? What’s their strategy and tactics? How do they see the political landscape in the USA as it appears increasingly likely that the Democrats cannot stop Trump from stealing the upcoming election by using the Supreme Court to stop the counting of mail in ballots. Are the Democrats ‘finished’ if they don’t win this November? What kind of 3rd party may successfully challenge them after November 2020? Guests welcomed are Maya Schon, member of the editorial board of the LCIP and Connie White, an LCIP organizer. (For Dr. Rasmus’s take on the latest political events and severe political crisis coming Nov. 3 and after, check out his latest article, “A Most Dire Warning”, at his blog, jackrasmus.com)

It’s a certainty there will October Surprises by the Trump administration. Just what & how many is the question. And whether domestic and/or foreign. Today’s main topic is reasoned speculation on candidates for October Surprise(s). High on the list is a likely military provocation and proxy invasion of Venezuela, also likely tied to Iran shipping. Iran may also qualify as candidate, given Trump’s string of ‘deals’ in the Persian Gulf emirates. Domestically in US surprises around disrupting the mail in ballot voting are possible, and certainly something regarding Covid vaccine—which is hardly revelatory here. The show today also provides detailed updates to the US House-Trump negotiations on a second economic stimulus (actually only the first such). What’s the latest developments. Will it happen before Nov. 3? If not, don’t expect to next spring. Also addressed is an update of the US jobs situation and the now rise in unemployment claims again amid continued announcements of mass job layoffs as large corporations restructure. Finally, the meaning of the Fed’s latest statements and warnings this past week, about ‘forward guidance’ and pleas for fiscal stimulus. (Check out next Monday the release of my latest assessment of Trump’s intent to create a Constitutional Crisis around the Nov. 3 voting in order to stay in office past January 20, 2021).

Today’s show discusses the recent confidential report issued by Deutsche Bank to its shareholders that the current pandemic and global great recession underway is a reflection and cause of an ‘Age of Disorder’ and the end of Globalization as we know it. The show discusses the Deutsche Bank note which reflects a widespread view among finance capitalists of the state of the global economy today, and likely in the months and years immediately ahead. Today’s show also provides an update on the ‘Not Negotiations’ underway in Congress between Democrats and Republicans over providing a next fiscal stimulus bill before the November elections, which is not likely in our view. Meanwhile the US economy and labor market in particular continue to slow their ‘rebound’ and the media prepares to ‘spin’ the data on GDP when released in October. (For my view of the true level of unemployment and the relapsing labor market in the US, check out my just published article, “America’s Current Jobs ‘Great Depression’, on my blog, jackrasmus.com)

Today’s show focuses on the condition of American Labor and Unions in the era of Covid. What’s the status of jobs, wages, benefits, union membership today, Labor Day 2020, after 6 months of Covid 19? The first part of the show dissects the August 2020 Employment Report just released this morning. What’s wrong with the statistics and paint a rosier picture of the actual condition of jobs. Why 1.37m jobs created last month are really much less, and those created mostly temp and part time and thus at a much lower wage. Why the number of jobless are actually still 35m and likely much more and rising per recent unemployment claims filings. Why official and media data consistently cherry pick the best numbers to report. For the period February thru August the bigger picture for workers jobs and wages. Why a second wave of permanent further job loss is now emerging. Check out Dr. Rasmus forthcoming article, ‘American Labor in the Age of Covid 19’ posted this Sunday on his blog, jackrasmus.com.

Dr. Rasmus comments briefly on the meaning of the just concluded RNC and DNC political conventions: both high on fear and short on specific proposals for ending America’s ‘Triple Crisis’ (Economy, Covid, Constitutional). The ‘Labor State’ of former and active local union leaders running for offices in local government in the San Francisco Bay Area are then welcomed and discuss their group’s programs, strategy and tactics and why they are running for office. Gaelan Ash, with AFSCME and former UAW, union officer and Lacei Amodei, former Local 2 HERE officer, join Dr. Rasmus to discuss why they are venturing forth into independent politics and not within either wing of the Corporate Party of America (aka Trumpublicans or Democrats). This show is the first of several to interview independent political groups and parties over the next four weeks. Others to come include the Peoples Party, Labor-Community Independent Politics, Green Party and others. Is there a growing momentum in the crisis? What happens if no final result on November 3 for the Trump-Biden confrontation, both as an election and as increasingly violent confrontation in the streets, which seems now inevitable? Is America about to become Wiemar, Germany 1926?