Alternative Visions

Dr. Rasmus explains the yield curve as a predictor of the last 17 recessions (and the next in 2019). Why short term Fed rates are rising to finance trillion dollar annual deficits and debt and why investors and businesses aren’t convinced the Trump tax cuts will result in a growing US economy after 2018. Why the Yield Curve predicts recessions. Rasmus then discusses Wisconsin’s $4 billion tax and incentive package to lure Foxconn (the giant Taiwan corporation) to its state. Why Foxconn is not, per Trump’s quote, ‘the eighth wonder of the world’.  The meaning of this week’s primary victory by Ms. Ocasio-Cortez in New York, and the Democratic Party leadership’s response.  Interpreting the Kennedy Supreme Court retirement announcement. Why Trump is not a fascist, nor yet a dictator. But considers himself ‘above the law’—i.e. the definition of a Tyrant. Rasmus concludes with analysis of what the Supreme Court’s Janus decision this past week means for the intensifying attack on public employee unions now coming. (For more on Janus, listen to our March 2, 2018 Alternative Visions show and interview with SEIU union representatives).

Rasmus reveals plans by Trump-Congress to cut taxes still further on investors and businesses before the November elections. Also ongoing incremental tax cutting involving corporate pension fund contributions and dismantling of funding for Obamacare. The Fed’s latest bank stress tests, how they’re phony and why some US banks are still financial fragile. Rasmus also discusses the pending Teamster-UPS contract and how workers’ wage hikes will be eaten up by reductions of overtime pay and inflation. A new five year agreement will mean real pay cuts. The show concludes with latest updates on Europe, Italy’s debt, Greek debt, 3rd party critiques of the US Labor Dept.’s Alternative Work survey, and Trump’s phony trade war with Europe (and real one with China).

The past week’s momentous decisions by the US (Fed) and European Central Bank on interest rates is discussed. How last week’s Fed rate hike, and announcement of 4-5 more hikes to come in 2018-19, will destabilize Europe’s economy as well as Emerging Market economies. Discussion of new reports released this past week on precariate jobs in the US, US multinational corporations offshore tax havens, Corporate CEOs fivefold increase in insider stock sales as buybacks accelerate due to Trump tax cuts.  Also reviewed is study released by financial fraud whistle blower, John Griffin, showing that bitcoin price bubble of 2017 was largely manipulated by Asian cryptocurrency exchange, Bitfinex. Rasmus discusses Trump listing of $50b China tariffs today and internal Italian populist government maneuvering with Euro bankers, as Euro economy (and in particular German) economies show signs of further economic slowing of exports and GDP).

 Dr. Rasmus critiques in detail the US Labor Dept., Bureau of Labor Statistics, just released report on Contingent-Alternative Jobs, or what’s called the ‘precariate’ workforce. How the BLS under-estimates and lowballs the number and growth rate of precarious work in the US today. How narrow definitions, exclusions of groups of workers, and BLS survey methodology makes it appear the rise of precarious jobs are not a problem—contrary to many independent private studies. (For a print version, see Dr. Rasmus’s blog, jackrasmus.com, on the topic).  In the second half of the show, the upcoming June 10 referendum vote in Switzerland on what is called ‘Vollgeld’ is addressed.  The proposal for what is called ‘sovereign money’ creation, represented by the referendum, is explained in the broader context of the increasing failure of central banks in the advanced economies to stabilize the capitalist economy.  How the central bank solution to the 2008-09 crash—via QE and zero rates for 8 years—will be insufficient in the next crisis. Hence, the new experiments like Vollgeld on how to bail out the economy are being explored.  Vollgeld-sovereign money as a new way to permanently bail out the private banks by having central banks assume all their debt perpetually.

Dr. Rasmus on Trump’s lifting exemptions on US tariffs on NAFTA-Europe steel & aluminum. The oft-ignored role of US domestic politics in Trump trade actions. Trump negotiating strategy and tactics. Why there’ll be no trade war with Mexico-Canada or Europe, but may yet be with China. NAFTA and Europe partners’ tepid responses to Trump announcement (Mexico $4b, Canada $16b, Europe $7.5b counter-tariffs compared to US $2.4 trillion total annual exports). Three-way splits in US-China trade negotiating team. The US ‘dual track’ trade negotiations strategy.  In the second half hour, Rasmus addresses the emerging Italian Debt crisis and its similarities to the 2012-15 Greek debt crisis. Italy’s insolvent private banking system, $500b in nonperforming bank loans, and government debt of 130% of GDP. Contagion potential to French banks. 5-Star populist party-Greek Syriza party compared. Italy as Greek debt crisis writ large. How financial imperialism works in the Eurozone.