In today's Cloud Wars Minute, I analyze how AI inferencing and custom chips are reshaping the cloud power structure.

Highlights

00:05 — 2026 is off to a booming start. One of the numbers we saw was that Amazon is committed to spending $200 billion in CapEx in calendar 2026. That will be, by far, the largest CapEx expenditure in a single year that any company in any industry has ever made. So, truly some monumental, groundbreaking stuff going on here. It shows the size of the opportunity.

01:11 — Now that total, Jassy said a few times, is for the whole Amazon Corporation, but he said the vast majority — the lion’s share — will go to AWS. So I took a little bit of liberty with this and figured that the overall for the whole company is almost $550 million in CapEx every single day. So I figured the portion of that — about 90% for AWS — is about $500 million a day being invested in the CapEx capabilities for AWS to pursue this enormous opportunity.

02:23 — Certainly the AI boom is funneling a huge amount of this, but they've also got this core strength. And he talked about how some companies investing in AI are also then pairing that up with increased non-AI workloads. In particular, on the AI side, he said inferencing is becoming huge.

03:05 — He said their chip business is at a $10 billion annualized run rate for AWS. He said every tech company in the world is desperately trying to get specialized, customized chips. AWS and Amazon are increasing their investment in their own chip business. He thinks that down the line, especially as the inferencing category really kicks in, this is going to be a huge boost for them.

04:51 — But overall, I think this is a tremendous display of courage and confidence on the part of Jassy and Amazon to again invest more in CapEx than any company in any industry has ever done, because he sees if we do this, this incredible market is going to be coming, and we at Amazon and AWS have the best possible chance of getting more than our share of it.

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