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Following the disturbing pictures of Indian Prime Minister Modi, leader of the world's biggest democracy, chumming it up with authoritarian leaders, Chinese Premier Xi and Russian President Putin, at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Summit in Tianjin, China, in late August, one political wag in the US joked that it could have been worse: "Donald Trump could have been there as well!"

More serious commentators worried that the gathering of the trio, representing three of the world's nuclear powers, and almost half the world's population, was deliberately intended as a message - that the US-led world order was no longer the only show in town, and that they were determined not to be pushed around by the West.

In the US, national security experts interpreted Modi's warm embrace of Xi and Putin as a deliberate display of displeasure over Trump's decision to impose hefty tariffs on India over its continued purchase of Russian oil, and Trump's clumsy handling of the military flare-up in May between India and Pakistan.

India has always resented outside efforts to mediate in its longstanding conflict with Pakistan over Kashmir, and rejected Trump's claims that he had ended the latest clashes by threatening to cut off trade with either party if they continued fighting.

They also took great offence at Trump's decision to invite Pakistani army Chief of Staff, Field Marshall Asim Munir, to the White House in June.

According to former National Security advisor John Bolton, this was the first time a Pakistani military leader has been hosted at the White House with no civilian leaders present.

Writing in the Wall Street Journal, Bolton described how Trump's approach outraged India, because it harked back to the era of a "hyphenated" US India-Pakistan policy, rather than each country being treated on its merits, without reference to the other.

US foreign policy experts worry that Trump's continued efforts to pressure India to stop buying Russian oil and gas, most recently by lobbying European countries to impose up to 100% tariffs on trade with India, will push India away from the US, into the arms of China, undermining Washington's biggest strategic goal, which is to contain rising China.

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Another example of Indian defiance of Washington came last week, when India decided to send 65 soldiers to take part in the quadrennial Russian-led military exercises with Belarus, known as ZAPAD, in mid-September.

I recently spoke to two national security analysts living in Asia to get their perspective on events. How serious was the rift between the US and India? What was driving US policy in Asia? Following the recent declaration by Trump on a Truth Social post that he would meet Xi at a regional summit in Korea in October, followed by a visit to each other's country next year, could there even be a bait and switch, whereby the US would abandon its traditional allies, and forge a separate "G2" partnership with China?

Indrani Bagchi, CEO of the Ananta Aspen Centre in India, and former Associate editor of the Times of India, said Indians viewed the second Trump administration with deep dismay.

In his first term, Trump had taken several welcome steps from their perspective, including raising the level of the Quad (a strategic partnership between the US, India, Japan and Australia) to leader level, imposing tariffs on China, and calling out China's unfair trading practices. They knew there was a risk of tougher US policies on tariffs and immigration, but all had still seemed well when Modi ...