From its important but underrecognized role in the World Wars of the 20th century to its key advocacy for the UN system, humanitarian aid, peacekeeping, and international treaties, Canada has been a major player in the global ordering sweepstakes.  

So what does Canada do when the world’s largest trading relationship (Canada’s with the United States) no longer necessarily connects it to a trustworthy nation? Can Canada step up and present itself as an independent leader of the free world and a ‘coordinator-in-chief’ for other Ordering nations? Will hosting the G7 give Canada some stealth mega ordering mojo? 

To discuss that and more, Jason is joined by Marci Surkes, Surkes served as Executive Director of Policy and Cabinet Affairs in the office of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. This turned out to be a very timely conversation as Canadian PM Justin Trudeau visited President-Elect Trump in Mar-a-Lago in late November and noted that Trump’s proposed 25% tariffs would decimate the Canadian economy. In response Trump suggested that Canada was ‘ripping off America’ to the tune of a 100 billion USD a year and that if Canada wanted tariff free trade it could become the 51st state. This sparked many viral memes. 

Amidst this bizarre and yet terrifying backdrop, Jason and Marci explore the upcoming 2025 Canadian election, which may actually play out as a referendum on Trudeau’s handling of the Trump presidency. They also discuss leadership challenges to Trudeau within the Liberal Party and the fraught relationship between Canada and India and the pivotal role Canada could play in Global Ordering as it takes on the presidency of the G7 in 2025.  

Plus: could there be a budding bromance between Starmer and Trudeau? And as Marci and Jason Order the Disorder, they explore the need for more gender equality across politics and why medium powers like Canada can play a pivotal role on issues like security guarantees and NATO. 

Producer: George McDonagh 

Executive Producer: Neil Fearn 

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ 

Show Notes Links 

Listen to an explainer on why Canadian politics has ground to a halt: https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/stalemate-why-the-house-of-commons-has-ground-to-a-halt/id1621425319?i=1000677888744 

Listen to Marci’s appearance on a panel discussing what Trump means for Canada: https://paulwells.substack.com/p/the-panel-what-trump-means-for-canada?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=804175&post_id=151283084&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=1ruvru&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email 

Listen to our Ben Ansell episode about other elections: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/50e9a35e0737bb9d0ddf29460a199c37  

Read profile of Melanie Joly: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/04/world/canada/melanie-joly-foreign-affairs-profile.html  

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Assad has fallen! The Tyrant is no more! Long live the revolution! 

There has been a genuine outpouring of jubilation among Syrians at home and abroad - even the ones working at the Syrian embassy in Moscow who ‘chose’ to fly the rebel flag. But the international responses are messier - regional players talk of maintaining Syria’s territorial integrity, while several countries welcome the new order with bombing raids (especially Turkey and Israel who are now operating inside Syria to weaken their enemies and occupy buffer zones). Meanwhile, even as Europeans ask whether jihadis will dominate the new Syria, the same European governments (notably Austria) are simultaneously drawing up plans to deport the Syrian refugees seeking asylum in their country -- because it must be safe now, right? 

In this bonus episode examining the Post-Assad Syria: From Euphoria to Uncertainty, Jason is joined by our returning Glaswegian champion, Jane Kinninmont. She is just back from an international conference in Doha where she sat one row behind Russia’s FM Sergei Lavrov. 

Jane and Jason tell stories from their times in Syria… about sweets and about being spied on. They break down all things Syria. Trying to draw lessons from a disorderly past to an orderly future. 

We examine: did Russia and Iran throw Assad under a bus? Several things changed in the regional calculus but - primarily they realized the game was up for Assad domestically. To save him they would have needed to commit major forces, and at a time when Israel might well have willing to join the fight to make sure that Iran lost - at least if Iran sent troops. And while those were clearly the major calculations, the “benefits” part of the Russo-Iranian cost-benefit analysis of propping up Assad had also dwindled.   Iran wasn’t actually getting so many benefits from Assad -- who spent most of the year trying to stay out of the regional war, avoid confronting Israel and pursue normalisation with Arab states.  

The episode ends with Jane and Jason Ordering the Disorder by concluding that the West and the Middle East alike were caught horribly unprepared. Still wounded by the experience of Iraq and Afghanistan, Western countries may shy away from lending serious capacity building assistance to a democratic Syrian led transition process - but fatalism is the wrong approach - the transition is more likely to be more peaceful and more successful if more political and economic resources are invested in it - especially by democratic countries willing to use carrots and sticks.  

Producer: George McDonagh 

Executive Producer: Neil Fearn 

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ 

Show Notes Links 

The David Runciman Pod that Jane mentions explaining linear vs cyclical and non-linear conceptions of history: https://www.ppfideas.com/episodes/the-history-of-bad-ideas%3A-the-end-of-history 

Jason’s appearance on Monocle’s The Globalist talking more about the Alawites: https://monocle.com/radio/shows/the-globalist/3495/play/  

A great Special Briefing from my former colleagues at MEI about what’s next in Syria: https://www.mei.edu/blog/special-briefing-after-assads-fall-whats-next-syria-and-region 

Israel, Seeing an Opportunity, Demolishes Syria’s Military Assets: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/10/world/middleeast/israel-strikes-syria.html 

A visual timeline of the events: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/10/world/middleeast/syria-civil-war-rebels-timeline-assad.html  

While international support is crucial, Syrians must lead their country’s political transition: https://www.chathamhouse.org/2024/12/while-international-support-crucial-syrians-must-lead-their-countrys-political-transition   

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This week was par for the course… We are living through Peak Disorder. Two democratic capital cities were convulsed by demonstrations trying to oust their governments. One Middle Eastern regime collapsed, while a neighboring war was paused.  

We at the Disorder pod believe that events like the Israeli-Lebanese ceasefire, the fall of Syria to the rebels, the street protests in Georgia in response to claims the election was rigged, the protests in South Korea opposing attempts to impose martial law, the battleground issues of the Irish elections, the spontaneous collapse of the French government, and the pardoning of Hunter Biden are all interrelated. We are most certainly living through the Global Enduring Disorder. In this historic era, events in one part of the world ping pong around and interact in unforeseen ways with events elsewhere, without sufficiently coordinated responses from potential Ordering powers. 

On today’s episode, we’re joined today by friend of the pod, fellow Georgia enthusiast, and former British Diplomat Arthur Snell. Arthur has recently hosted excellent pods on events in Syria and Georgia on his Behind the Lines podcast. (Links below) We recorded most of the episode after the Fall of Aleppo but before the fall of the Assad regime in total. Therefore, we will be having a bonus episode with Jane Kinninmont on Thursday delving into that in specific. 

In this ep, Arthur and Jason survey all of these topics, explaining that because of the fundamental principles of our era of Global Enduring Disorder, previously stable looking places like South Korea, are becoming Disorderly. They discuss how memes and themes that are playing out in the UK and US are also rehashed in Ireland. They finish the show by trying to Order the Disorder – contrasting developments in South Korea with those in Georgia, concluding that state capacity and cultural solidarity is more vital now than ever. 

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ 

Show Notes Links 

Listen to Arthur’s podcast episode about Georgia: https://pod.link/1704344656/episode/a654b790f75542d26710235d05c378d7  

And his episode on The Fall of Aleppo: https://pod.link/1704344656/episode/08772c26e60e40496a2a235b491f561b  

For deeper background to the Syrian Rebel’s offensive: https://www.syriaintransition.com/aleppoherewecome  

And how events in South Korea are connected to developments in Trump world: https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2024/12/south-korea-martial-law/680864/  

And the Irish elections:  

https://www.breakingnews.ie/general-election-2024/hutchs-dail-bid-ends-with-him-running-away-from-pandemonium-at-count-centre-1702711.html  

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Do elections work anymore? 2024 was the biggest year of elections in human history. Major contests were held in the UK, US, EU, France, India, Japan, Moldova, Georgia, and elsewhere. Did these elections work? Were they free and fair? Did their outcomes actually represent the authentic will of the people? Is genuine electoral democracy with its checks and balances even possible in the mid-21st century?  

Today’s guest on Disorder, Ben Ansell holds the contrarian view that democracy is actually alive and well. He asserts that even if we are not happy with recent outcomes, we should still trust the process.  

Ben Ansell is Professor of Comparative Democratic Institutions at the University of Oxford and Nuffield College. He was the 2023 BBC Reith Lecturer and the presenter of ‘What's Wrong With Democracy?’ by Tortoise Media and ‘Rethink’ on BBC Radio 4. His most recent book is ‘Why Politics Fails’ and he writes the Substack 'Political Calculus’.  

In the episode, Jason and Ben embark on an around-the-world tour to survey this epic year of elections and analyse the state of democracy globally. They look at the key features that have defined this cycle, especially anti-incumbency sentiments.  

QUOTE OF THE SHOW ‘This is the only year, 2024, where in every single MAJOR WESTERN country, the incumbents lost votes. They didn't always lose office, but they often did, because when you're losing 5 or 10 % of votes in competitive systems, you're a goner. First off… it looks, if you look at John's FT graph [in the shownotes], things have just got more volatile over the last decade or so anyway. And so that might be just a change among voters, that voters have become more like consumers. I mean, we are all consumers [in our mind sets]. And in most of the countries that have elections in capitalist markets, we [are used to] switching goods all the time. And I suppose there's reason to believe that [moving forward] we might switch parties all the time.’ 

Jason and Ben delve deeper into the unique case of Georgia, where incumbents have managed to increase their majority despite global trends. The duo also cover the outcomes of the European elections, the implications of criminality as a feature rather than a bug of global neopopulism, and the roles of Russian and Chinese influence operations in election results across the world. The episode concludes with Ben – an optimistic mega-orderer by temperament and intellectual conviction – genuinely Ordering the Disorder by saying that Trump can, and will, be contained and that the institutions of American democracy can actually withstand another Trump term. 

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ 

Show Notes Links 

FT anti-incumbency graph/article: https://www.ft.com/content/e8ac09ea-c300-4249-af7d-109003afb893  

Why Politics Fails https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/444113/why-politics-fails-by-ansell-ben/9780241992753  

Rethink: https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p08gt1ry  

What's Wrong With Democracy?: https://www.tortoisemedia.com/listen/whats-wrong-with-democracy/  

Ben’s Substack: https://benansell.substack.com  

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Amidst post-election malaise and seasonal depression, Jason is thankful for the Mega-Ordering listeners who sent in their questions to his new address in a bunker underneath the hills of Hampstead (you can reach it by writing to him @ [email protected]). Esther asked ‘To what extent did the Dems actually pander to the woke agenda? Or is that just made up and trumped up by the Republicans since it helps them win points’; Annabelle in Atlanta, Georgia asks ‘Could Taylor Swift solve all the disorder?’ while Kerry in the Republic of Georgia asks ‘despite being from rural Vermont, I now feel these days like I barely know America. I do not understand Trump voters. How do we bridge this divide on a practical level?’ 

Jumping off from these prompts Alex and Jason cover myriad topics including: the potential for conflict between China and Taiwan, whether JD Vance could become President before 2028, the ways we can incorporate the lessons of behavioral economics into political decision-making, and the role of the transgender issue in the recent election campaign. Plus: the challenges for liberal elites in truly understanding Trump voters, if Taylor Swift and other celebrities actually helped or hurt the Dems, and why even in these dark days, we can remain optimistic about the potential success of a collective effort to preserve democracy. 

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ 

Show Notes Links 

Learn more about the history of Thanksgiving: https://www.britannica.com/topic/Thanksgiving-Day  

And the Origins of Turkey: https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2014/11/why-americans-call-turkey-turkey/383225/  

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We have crossed through the looking glass – Up is Down, Disorder is Order, Vice is Virtue, Felony is a Positive, and Rape Convictions are a reason to get a cabinet position. With Trump unsurprisingly appointing disruptors to his administration, Global Disorder beckons. How did we get here? Seemingly because Biden wasn’t bold enough in trying to assert order. Is Starmer making the same mistake? 

In this episode, Jason and Alex discuss what will happen to the ongoing legal cases against Trump, the forthcoming Trump administration’s attempts to disorder and dismantle American institutions and checks and balances, and the likely evolution of the Supreme Court. After a lengthy discussion of the initial proposal of Matt Gaetz’s as Attorney General and his subsequent withdrawal, Alex introduces listeners to Xela Llah Llah, her Trump-voting alter-ego who lives on the other side of the looking glass and who will occasionally be coming on the podcast to explain politics from her point of view. 

After some wise words from Xela which ‘help us empathize with the other side’, Jason and Alex turn their attention back to the UK, looking at whether Starmer’s appearance at COP means anything, and how (if at all) he can push to become a more prominent global leader on a range of issues. In a rather downbeat and informal Ordering the Disorder segment, we examine the future of multilateralism and the global political order (is there any such thing anymore?) 

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ 

Show Notes Links 

Matt Gaetz’s Bio and why Criminality leads to loyalty: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-daily/id1200361736?i=1000677307816  

On Matt Gaetz’s replacement Pam Bondi: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/21/us/politics/pam-bondi-attorney-general-trump.html  

And for a Trump Cabinet Tracker: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/politics/trump-administration-cabinet-appointees.html  

Also a link back to last week’s episode discussing how Starmer should be bolder: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/ep83-trump-derangement-syndrome-with-the-two-matts/id1706818264?i=1000677421360  

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The Post-Mortem autopsy continues. How could liberal elites have had eight and half years to prepare for the twenty thousand tonne train barrelling down the tracks right at them and not been able to take sufficient evasive action? Who are these clowns? Do they deserve what is coming? What can studying years of Brexit Fatigue, Orban Exhaustion, and Netanyahu Nihilism, teach us about both how this Trumpian travesty has happened and the likely disorderly evolution of peak Neopopulism in America? And what is the antidote to Trump Derangement Syndrome?  Jason needs a double dose. 

In this episode, Jason is joined by Matt Kelly and Matt d’Ancona – the hosts of The New European’s ‘The Two Matts’ podcast. They discuss the abysmal state of the world and Keir Starmer’s inability to lead with vision. They review and assess the rise of neopopulism in both the UK and the US. The conclusion is that the goose is cooked. Complacency and a lack of bold messaging has led to the evisceration of the centre-left globally. Jason even questions if he is of the centre-left anymore, concluding he may simply be a disillusioned and increasingly radical centrist. While the Two Matts share bon mot about recent horrific developments in Britain, Jason explores some lessons from Hungary and Israel, which may possibly shed some light on the likely future trajectory of neopopulism in America. Delving briefly into the shocking and depressing cabinet appointments trickling out of MAGA world, the Two Matts and Jason also reflect on the social legacy of the Trump era and its lasting impact on Western political discourse. In place of Ordering the Disorder (which may no longer be possible as Disorder has already won), The Two Matts answer lightening round questions about the most macabre moments of Trump-iness and some of the humorous aspects of the challenges ahead. 

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ 

Show Notes Links 

Get the Two Matts podcast - https://podfollow.com/2matts  

Read the latest edition of the New European here: https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/edition/the-beast-unleashed/  

Read Jason’s article, ‘A lizard person’s guide to US election conspiracy theories’ in the New European: https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/a-lizard-persons-guide-to-us-election-conspiracy-theories/  

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The Disorderer-in-Chief is now President-Elect. We can’t say we didn’t see it coming. In fact, we predicted on the pod and on the substack that he was favourite to win. But as the post-mortems are bouncing around the internet, we must ask what one factor most led to this outcome: was it the economy, was it woke gone overboard, was it misinformation, was it the anti-incumbency mood? Which factors predominated in making Harris unelectable? And how did the Democratic party allow itself to be fooled again and fight the election on losing issues? And Were Americans fooled by false promises? And duped by misinformation about the issues?  

And given Trump’s resounding victory what is next – will he deport millions of Americans, launch a trade war that drives inflation skywards, and give Musk the keys to the regulatory castle to endlessly enrich himself – and will the American electorate care in 4 years’ time? 

In this episode, Alex and Jason discuss the major reasons underpinning Trump’s win. Including: the cultural shifts in the United States, the fact that Trump’s criminality and venality may actually be seen by many of his voters as a positive (i.e. they voted for him not despite the fact that he is a convicted felon but BECAUSE OF IT), and how the Republicans were brutally effective in their advertising and narrative crafting. 

Amidst all the tumult, the Disorder pods co-hosts attempt to take stock globally and personally. Alex – a Brit turned American – and Jason – an American turned Brit – reflect on their own changing identities and how the result makes them feel in their guts. Plus: listener questions tackle topics like the future of Europe and NATO, could Trump change the constitution, could Trump actually deliver what people want, what about Bitcoin, and whether America could become yet another Russia-style oligarchy. 

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ 

Show Notes Links 

Read Alex’s Byline Times Article - ‘Democrats Need to Stop Blaming Trump’s Voters and Admit the Party Must Change’: https://bylinetimes.com/2024/11/07/democrats-need-to-stop-blaming-trumps-voters-and-admit-the-party-must-change/  

What the Founding Fathers Would Say About Trump’s Win 

“I told you so.”: https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/11/08/what-the-founding-fathers-would-say-about-trumps-win/?tpcc=editors_picks&utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Editors%20Picks%2011092024&utm_term=editors_picks  

Trump’s Historic Chief of Staff Pick, and What Elon Musk Wants Now: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/08/podcasts/trump-chief-of-staff-musk.html  

Amsterdam bans protests after 'antisemitic squads' attack Israeli soccer fans:  https://www.reuters.com/world/israels-pm-aware-very-violent-incident-against-israelis-amsterdam-his-office-2024-11-08/  

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After a night of trepidation at Jason’s watch party the results came in faster and more furiously than expected… Trump crushed Harris – not just in rural areas or in Red States, but in many middle-class suburbs/exurbs and even with Latino and Black men. This 2024 Trumpian landslide is the biggest re-alignment in American politics since Reagan crushed Carter in 1980. The ‘lumpenproletariat’ Trump coalition of 2024 is actually highly dissimilarly economically, socially, ideologically and ethnically to the ‘whitelash’ coalition that took him to victory in 2016. How will that affect its Disordering impacts on the global stage? 

Jason is joined by party guests -- FP deputy editor Sasha Polakow-Suransky and Jane Kinninmont -- to break down what the results mean for global order. 

Sasha shares insights into anti-immigrant sentiment and attempts to channel the angry anti-system voters from his home state of Michigan, while Jane discusses European defense arrangements and is pressed by Jason to provide a sliver of Celtic optimism. They attempt to explain the implications for the rest of the world: the transatlantic relationship, European security, Ukraine, tariff wars, the Middle East (Iran/Gaza), and China. Jason ends the episode with a forlorn farewell. He sees no silver lining, only peak disorder ahead. 

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ 

And Pray that the Disorderer-and-Chief doesn’t cancel American democracy 

Show Notes Links 

To Get Sasha’s Book ‘Go Back to Where You Came From’: https://www.hachettebookgroup.com/titles/sasha-polakow-suransky/go-back-to-where-you-came-from/9781568585932/  

Check out his debate-style podcast Counterpoint: https://foreignpolicy.com/podcasts/counterpoint/  

On the Demographic shifts and the re-ordering (or rather re-disordering) of American politics from racial/ethnic cleavages onto class lines 

On ‘Defending Europe with less America’: https://ecfr.eu/publication/defending-europe-with-less-america/?amp  

‘There is hope [maybe if you are Celtic but not if you are Anglo-American] — 10 ways to be prepared and grounded for another Trump presidency’: https://wagingnonviolence.org/2024/11/10-things-to-do-if-trump-wins/ 

On Michigan’s Arab voters: https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/10/28/election-michigan-harris-trump-arab-americans-lebanon-war-israel-gaza/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=ZWxlY3Rpb24tbWljaGlnYW4taGFycmlzLXRydW1wLWFyYWItYW1lcmljYW5zLWxlYmFub24td2FyLWlzcmFlbC1nYXph&pid=OC20506955  

And the ‘Uncommitted’ movement: https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/08/21/michigan-biden-harris-gaza-uncommitted-arab-vote/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=bWljaGlnYW4tYmlkZW4taGFycmlzLWdhemEtdW5jb21taXR0ZWQtYXJhYi12b3Rl&pid=OC20506955  

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What do professional ‘futurists’ think about global disorder? With our current world seemingly in never ending Disorder that won’t be immediately cured by the election results, it can be hard to put your head above the parapet and try to see into the future. Furthermore, given the rapidly changing pace of technology, the 2050s, 2070s, and 2100s feel a long way out. Is it worth trying to forecast and plan for the future? If countries started planning now, could we see an Ordered future?  

In this episode of Disorder, Jason opens with his feelings about election day and then hands over to Jane Kinninmont to host Cat Tully, who works with governments, civil society and young leaders around the world to facilitate structured conversations about what the future could and should look like. She is the founder of the School of International Futures, and has previously served in the UK government, working on strategy in the prime minister’s office and the Foreign Office.  

Jane and Cat delve into the complexities of forecasting the future, discussing the importance of collective foresight in navigating global disorder. They discuss what was and wasn’t achieved by the recent UN Summit For The Future, the role of strategic foresight in preparing for potential shocks, and how people around the world are working to push governments beyond short-term populist priories. Finally, they Order the Disorder by talking about the importance of youth engagement, and using futures and foresight methodologies to build a better future rather than viewing the future through the lens of panic and polycrisis. 

Producer: George McDonagh 

Exec Producer: Neil Fearn 

Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ 

And Pray that the Disorderer-and-Chief doesn’t win 

Show Notes Links 

The School of International Futures’ Implementation Handbook for the wellbeing of future generations: https://soif.org.uk/implementation-handbook/ 

UK Government’s brief guide to futures thinking and foresight: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/635931b18fa8f557d066c1b1/A_Brief_Guide_to_Futures_Thinking_and_Foresight_-_2022.pdf 

A great book by Jane McGonagal on training your imagination to think about the future: https://janemcgonigal.com/2021/12/17/imaginable-how-to-see-the-future-coming-and-feel-ready-for-anything-even-things-that-seem-impossible-today/ 

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