The free world is reeling and Putin is jubilant as Trump goes over the heads of Ukraine and Europe to “negotiate” directly with Russia – cutting Zelenskyy and European leaders out of talks in Saudi Arabia. Will the two autocrats simply carve Ukraine up between them? Will they heed Zelenskyy’s demand that there be no settlement without Ukraine’s participation? And given Russia’s record of deception, is the notion of a fair and lasting peace just a naive fantasy?

Oz Katerji hears the reaction to the Riyadh talks from Kyiv with Maria Avdeeva, security expert and senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute.

• This episode of This Is Not A Drill is supported by Incogni, the service that keeps your private information safe, protects you from identity theft and keeps your data from being sold. There’s a special offer for This Is Not A Drill listeners – go to Incogni.com/notadrill to get an exclusive 60% off your annual plan.

• Support us on Patreon to keep This Is Not A Drill producing thought-provoking podcasts like this.

Written and presented by Oz Katerji. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production.

www.podmasters.co.uk

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Trump has clear disdain for NATO – but could he really pull the US out of the alliance? And what would be its prospects without American support?

In the current geopolitical climate, the annual meeting this week of European military, security and political experts – the Munich Security Conference 2025 – has a special urgency. Just how far is the Trump administration truly in or out on European defence? And what are the prospects for NATO in the case of a transatlantic rift in the alliance?

Gavin Esler talks to Camille Grand, distinguished policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations and former Assistant Secretary General for defence investment at NATO.

• This episode of This Is Not A Drill is supported by Incogni, the service that keeps your private information safe, protects you from identity theft and keeps your data from being sold. There’s a special offer for This Is Not A Drill listeners – go to Incogni.com/notadrill to get an exclusive 60% off your annual plan.

• Support us on Patreon to keep This Is Not A Drill producing thought-provoking podcasts like this.

Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production.

www.podmasters.co.uk 

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

On his return to the White House this January, Donald Trump pledged to be a ‘peacemaker’, after insisting during his campaign that he would bring an end to the conflict in Ukraine in 24 hours.

Nearly three years into Russia’s all out war on its neighbour, its brutal attacks continue – with incremental territorial gains coming at the costs of thousands of lives. Yet Ukraine’s military still fights to hold the line. Has Trump really got the leverage to bring Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy to the table to sign a peace deal?

In the latest episode of This Is Not A Drill, Oz Katerji discusses the future for Ukraine, Russia and US foreign policy with the US military’s former commander in Europe, Lieutenant General (Retired) Ben Hodges.

• Go to proton.me/notadrill to receive a 38% discount on Proton Mail

• This episode of This Is Not A Drill is supported by Incogni, the service that keeps your private information safe, protects you from identity theft and keeps your data from being sold. There’s a special offer for This Is Not A Drill listeners – go to Incogni.com/notadrill to get an exclusive 60% off your annual plan.

• Support us on Patreon to keep This Is Not A Drill producing thought-provoking podcasts like this.

Written and presented by Oz Katerji. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production.

www.podmasters.co.uk 

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

When a British submarine surfaced in the North Sea to warn off a Russian spy vessel sailing just 45 miles from the British mainland, a series of shadowy maritime sabotage incidents burst onto the front pages and into public consciousness.

In the past year undersea cables vital to European digital infrastructure have been targeted for damage - most notably in the Baltic Sea. With blame difficult to pinpoint, suspicion has fallen on Russia, which Western security services have warned is engaged in ‘hybrid warfare’ - utilising sabotage, cyber attacks and other non-military hostile acts - in a bid to weaken NATO countries and destabilise Western democracies. 

In the latest episode of This Is Not A Drill, Gavin Esler discusses the threat to European infrastructure from undersea sabotage with Sophia Besch, a senior fellow in the Europe Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. And to assess the wider threat from potential hybrid warfare operations we hear from Ian Bond, deputy director of the Centre for European Reform.

• Go to http://proton.me/notadrill to receive a 38% discount on Proton Mail

• This episode of This Is Not A Drill is supported by Incogni, the service that keeps your private information safe, protects you from identity theft and keeps your data from being sold. There’s a special offer for This Is Not A Drill listeners – go to Incogni.com/notadrill to get an exclusive 60% off your annual plan.

• Support us on Patreon to keep This Is Not A Drill producing thought-provoking podcasts like this.

Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production.

www.podmasters.co.uk

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

For decades the Islamic Republic of Iran used its ties to Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis in Yemen to create conflict and shore up its power in the Middle East and beyond. But in 2024 Iran’s plans and power fell apart in spectacular fashion, from Assad’s fall in Syria to Israel’s devastating attacks on its proxy groups. Once able to export chaos with impunity, Tehran is now in a state of unprecedented weakness. And it faces the return to the White House of Donald Trump, who enacted a strategy of ‘maximum pressure’ on Iran in his previous term. 

What does 2025 hold for Iran? Gavin Esler talks to Hagai M. Segal, New York University London professor and Middle-East advisor, and Paul Salem, vice president for international engagement at the Middle East Institute.

• This episode of This Is Not A Drill is supported by Incogni, the service that keeps your private information safe, protects you from identity theft and keeps your data from being sold. There’s a special offer for This Is Not A Drill listeners – go to Incogni.com/notadrill to get an exclusive 60% off your annual plan.

• This episode is supported by Proton Mail, go to http://proton.me/notadrill to receive a 38% discount on Proton Mail

• Support us on Patreon to keep This Is Not A Drill producing thought-provoking podcasts like this.

Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production.

www.podmasters.co.uk 

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

After 15 months of horror, a ceasefire and hostage release deal triggers rejoicing in Israel and Palestine. But the deal is ambiguous and built around only a gradual release of Palestinian prisoners and Israeli hostages, with no agreement to end the war yet. While Trump rushes to claim credit, some fear the deal is so loose it might collapse. Could this conflict reignite? Gavin Esler talks to Middle East expert Dr H.A. Hellyer of RUSI, the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security, about Israel and Gaza’s fragile moment of hope. 

• From next week TINAD will be coming out every Thursday instead of Wednesdays, to give us more time to react to developing news stories. Patreon people will still get episodes as early as possible. 

• No longer on Twitter? Follow Gavin Esler and This Is Not A Drill on BlueSky. 

• This episode of This Is Not A Drill is supported by Incogni, the service that keeps your private information safe, protects you from identity theft and keeps your data from being sold. There’s a special offer for This Is Not A Drill listeners – go to Incogni.com/notadrill to get an exclusive 60% off your annual plan.

• Support This Is Not Drill on Patreon to continue by backing us on Patreon. You’ll get early, ad-free editions, merchandise and more. 

Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Audio production by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production

podmasters.co.uk

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

With his unhinged foreign policy pronouncements, including demands that Greenland and the Panama Canal be handed over to the US, and vague threats to annex Canada, Donald Trump is already setting governments on edge. How will the world cope with an America First foreign policy where chaos and uncertainty are features not bugs? 

And as the self-styled dealmaker vows to bring a swift end to conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, what do his nominations to key defence and security roles – among them hawks, libertarians and a TV news host – tell us about his priorities? 

Joining Gavin Esler to discuss the ‘known unknowns’ is Amy Mackinnon, national security and intelligence correspondent at Foreign Policy magazine.

• This episode of This Is Not A Drill is supported by Incogni, the service that keeps your private information safe, protects you from identity theft and keeps your data from being sold. There’s a special offer for This Is Not A Drill listeners – go to Incogni.com/notadrill to get an exclusive 60% off your annual plan.

• Support us on Patreon to keep This Is Not A Drill producing thought-provoking podcasts like this.

Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production.

www.podmasters.co.uk 

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The climate emergency is more urgent than ever, yet powerful interests are still pushing back on solutions and peddling climate denial. From fossil fuel giants to populist governments and greedy online grifters, they sow doubts about four decades of research and undermine a hard-won global political consensus. 

Who are the Climate Con-Men and how are they succeeding? Gavin Esler talks to Jennie King, Director of Climate Disinformation Research and Policy at the Institute for Strategic Dialogue, about their techniques of deceit, distrust and disinformation – and to James Murray of environmental news service BusinessGreen to find out how the world can unite to tackle the climate crisis.

• This episode of This Is Not A Drill is supported by Incogni, the service that keeps your private information safe, protects you from identity theft and keeps your data from being sold. There’s a special offer for This Is Not A Drill listeners – go to Incogni.com/notadrill to get an exclusive 60% off your annual plan.

• Support us on Patreon to keep This Is Not A Drill producing thought-provoking podcasts like this.

Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production.

www.podmasters.co.uk 

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Assad’s stunning fall ends a tyrannical 53-year rule in Syria, leaving monstrous crimes against human rights exposed, rocking both Iran and Russia on their heels, and handing the country’s future back to its people. Where next for Syria? Will the rebel fighters coalesce into a working government and avoid the factionalism which would jeopardise the Syrian people’s hopes? And what does it mean for an international community which had turned its back on the Syrian war?

Emma Beals explores an awe-inspiring week in the Middle East with Syria expert and open-source investigator Suhail al-Ghazi. 

• No Longer on Twitter? Follow TINAD and Emma Beals on BlueSky. 

• Support This Is Not Drill on Patreon to continue by backing us on Patreon. You’ll get early, ad-free editions, merchandise and more. 

Written and presented by Emma Beals. Audio production by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production

podmasters.co.uk

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

• Give or get 20% off a year’s Patreon backing for TINAD in our Black Friday sale.

This year marks a decade since ISIS hit the headlines with their dramatic rise to power in Iraq. It would be easy now to think it is a thing of the past. But in 2024 the group is having a resurgence in Syria, has a presence across Africa, and has morphed into a worldwide operation. 

With multiple wars and a new phase of global disorder upon us, has the West forgotten about countering the threat of ISIS?

Emma Beals assesses the state of ISIS worldwide and the foreign policy response to its continued threat with Charles Lister, director of the Syria and Countering Terrorism & Extremism programs at the Middle East Institute, and discusses their presence in Africa with Ryan O’Farrell, senior analyst at the Bridgeway Foundation and the co-author of The Islamic State in Africa: The Emergence, Evolution, and Future of the Next Jihadist Battlefront.

This episode of This Is Not A Drill is supported by Incogni, the service that keeps your private information safe, protects you from identity theft and keeps your data from being sold. There’s a special offer for This Is Not A Drill listeners – go to Incogni.com/notadrill to get an exclusive 60% off your annual plan.

Support us on Patreon to keep This Is Not A Drill producing thought-provoking podcasts like this.

Written and presented by Emma Beals. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production.

www.podmasters.co.uk 

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices