Over the weekend, waves of missiles were launched back and forth by Iran and Israel – killing civilians, damaging oil refineries, and causing tremendous humanitarian disaster. Iran willy nilly lobbed bombs at population centres while the Israelis targeted key bits of infrastructure. In either case, the international community stood by – seemingly unable to stop the Disorder. So what can be done?

In this episode, Jason Pack and Jane Kinninmont recap the weekend’s events – exploring what role the key international actors like, Trump, the G7, or India can play in providing an off ramp. Jane and Jason discuss the contradictions in Trump’s stance, the role of the G7 and India as potential mediators, and the risks associated with a full regime change in Iran. Plus: could Israel actually lose this war or its population tire of being confined to bomb shelters at night? 

Then as they Order the Disorder, Jane and Jason provide their predictions on how it all might end. They disagree agreeably on whether Israel’s war aims of destroying the enrichment facility at Fardow now need to be achieved first or if it is possible to go back to the negotiating table directly.

Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow 

Show Notes Links:

Sohrab Ahmari - Iran’s Devastating Hubris - https://unherd.com/2025/06/irans-devastating-hubris/ 

Analysis for Ynet by Raz Zimmt who is one of Israel’s leading experts on Iran, at INSS - https://www.ynetnews.com/opinions-analysis/article/rj6csjsqeg 

Richard Nephew: Can Israel Destroy Iran’s Nuclear Program? Foreign Affairs - https://www.foreignaffairs.com/israel/can-israel-destroy-iran-nuclear-program 

An initiative by 21 Iranian and Israeli scholars, writers and artists calling for a ceasefire -

https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1DmH16adeqbmc3FO1596QVYf0PnVYfr_TDG2pc2njobk/edit 

Israel-Iran War: 10 Dead, Around 200 Injured In Iranian Strikes - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zKsJQW4uWxY 

Will The U.S. Deal Iran its Final Blow - https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/call-me-back-with-dan-senor/id1539292794?i=1000713035101

Explainer: what we know so far in the Israel-Iran conflict - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jun/16/israel-iran-conflict-what-we-know-so-far-explainer  

Markets are shrugging off the Israel-Iran conflict. Some strategists warn of complacency - https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/16/markets-could-be-underpricing-risks-of-israel-iran-conflict.html 

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Overnight, Israel attacked several of Iran’s nuclear sites and killed the Islamic Republic’s top military leaders, as well as assassinating the Supreme Leader’s key advisor on nuclear issues, Ali Shamkhani. This comes two days before the US and Iran were supposed to resume direct talks on finding a diplomatic agreement to curb Iran’s nuclear programme, which Shamkhani had publicly supported. Jane Kinninmont and Jason discuss why has war come now, in the middle of Trump and Witkoff’s diplomacy?

Jason explains: it is likely because surprise and going on the offensive are more beneficial now than they have been in the last century. The duo break down the big picture implications of how the recent Ukrainian strikes on Russian nuclear planes and the ongoing Israeli strikes on Iran showcase how warfare has just rapidly changed from a period which favours static and prepared defense (the Cold War and Post-Cold War periods) to a period (The Enduring Disorder) in which warfare has changed to favours creative and imaginative offense. Our current military technology and intel (esp AI) will promote more instability and favour aggression over defense. Also the key thing to keep in mind is that the Israelis had prepared this attack for years and had actually delayed it and felt they needed to get it done before it was too late.

Jason also predicts Iranians will have to asymmetrically retaliate... could be against US or Sunni Gulfi targets in the region (refineries/embassies) or Jewish/Israeli targets in Europe/the Globe. In short, we are entering a new phase of the Wars of Disorder.

Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow 

Show Notes Links:

For the NYT’s coverage of kinetic developments and Overviews: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/06/12/world/israel-iran-us-nuclear 

For an excellent audio overview of what sites were attacked and why now-- Emergency Episode: ISRAEL AT WAR WITH IRAN - With Ronen Bergman: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/call-me-back-with-dan-senor/id1539292794?i=1000712721731

This attack has been long prepared: CIA analyst who leaked Israeli military plans gets three years in prison - The Washington Post https://apple.news/ABFn0haZjROuV8HqU_Ezsug

Why can’t we just have global order, and civility on the Tube: https://www.ft.com/content/cfb73bfe-fb42-4fd1-8b73-a125fd35e1a0?accessToken=zwAGN3LKTcoYkdPPtzv--0JP0dOLc6El_TXhoA.MEQCIG07rU5VCnoJ70yjPQ85Yr2K3YVq65g_R1jNE0NXa1dyAiBuosNEkyWwxJu499tazJwRojNLWZgq9iJmfvfLfBN5tQ&sharetype=gift&token=8dc84b36-5e95-4856-9c28-e6d884595132

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At different engagements throughout the month, NATO allies will meet in Brussels and the Hague to discuss Ukraine and defense spending – with Trump’s team putting pressure on the Europeans to up their spending to 5% of GDP. But with the Americans wavering on the alliance as a whole, and these unrealistic spending targets: Can NATO survive?

To find out, Arthur Snell speaks with Sten Rynning, professor and director of the Danish Institute for Advanced Study, University of Southern Denmark, and author of ‘NATO: From Cold War to Ukraine, a History of the World’s Most Powerful Alliance’. 

The duo discuss the origins and evolution of NATO, the significance of Article 5, NATO’s complex relationship with France, and the challenges faced during the Afghanistan mission. Plus: the contentious issue of NATO's eastward expansion in the wake of the fall of the Soviet Union, and the Alliance's role in maintaining Order in the Post-War era. And as they conclude the discussion, they explore the future of European security architecture, the importance of America's role in NATO, and – to Order the Disorder – the need for a cohesive European defense strategy.

Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow 

Show Notes Links:

Get Sten Rynning’s book, NATO: From Cold War to Ukraine, a History of the World’s Most Powerful Alliance - https://www.londonreviewbookshop.co.uk/stock/nato-from-cold-war-to-ukraine-a-history-of-the-world-s-most-powerful-alliance-sten-rynning 

Watch The Paradox of the Anti-Semitic Boulder attack - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R7zAO_5CtfE 

Listen to Arthur’s Behind The Lines Podcast - https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/behind-the-lines-with-arthur-snell/id1704344656 

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From Gaddafi’s Green Book, to Mao’s Little Red Book, to Hitler’s Mein Kampf, ideological autocrats have frequently spelled out in plain sight their perverse world views and long-term plans to confront their adversaries and upend global order. Rather than engaging in deep study of the thoughts of Qadhafi, Saddam, the Ayatollahs, or Mao, our leaders have traditionally not taken the statements of our ideological adversaries seriously enough. From Obama, to Biden, and even Trump – leaders in the West have long misunderstood what drives Putin’s Russia. They have wondered about Putin’s hidden agendas and secret plans, rather than reading his published ones.

Putin essentially told us he was going to invade Ukraine in his writings and statements. How is it then, that major leaders throughout the West could be caught off-guard and surprised when he did? There is actually a manifesto of the Russian deep state’s ideology – a collection of books called Project Russia. And yet almost no one has heard of it and it is not yet translated into English. It might be the clearest indicator of Putin’s ultimate goals.

To find out more, Jason is joined by Dave Troy, an investigative journalist covering the intersection of technology and democracy. He is currently the publisher and editor of America 2.0, a news site focused on the future of democracy. Dave also hosts the podcast Dave Troy Presents.

Jason and David discuss the continuity of Russian intelligence networks from the Soviet era to the present and the incompatibility of oligarchs and democracy. Plus: they unpack 'Project Russia'-- an ideological framework that outlines strategies for undermining Western democracy, the concept of Russian Cosmism, how these ideas intersect with Silicon Valley futurism, and are shaping the West in unexpected ways.

Finally, as they Order the Disorder, David suggests a new coalition of democracies united behind promoting Order and confronting the Deliberate Disorders.

Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow 

Show Notes Links:

Watch Does Germany need to embrace Nationalism? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XIwVwI7mP5E

Watch Will German defence spending make Trump happy?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qVwZsukFK9g

Basic stuff on Project Russia and its origins:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Russia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Institute_for_Strategic_Studies

Visit America 2 News - https://america2.news

David’s Writing in the Washington Spectator https://washingtonspectator.org/category/wide-angle/

David Troy’s Podcast - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/dave-troy-presents/id1610914569

Clarence Streit - Union Now:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Union_Now

https://dn790008.ca.archive.org/0/items/in.ernet.dli.2015.262135/2015.262135.Union-Now.pdf

Marlene Laruelle - Russian Nationalism:

https://www.taylorfrancis.com/books/oa-mono/10.4324/9780429426773/russian-nationalism-marlene-laruelle

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With Friedrich Merz officially at the helm, Germany is entering a new era. But with the AfD breathing down his neck – the country is actually more internally Disordered than outsiders may realise. We ask: could the answer be a new – inclusive – brand of nationalism?
To find out, Jane Kinninmont is joined by Will Wilkes: Bloomberg News correspondent in Germany and co-author of ‘Broken Republik: The Inside Story of Germany's Descent into Crisis’. The pair discuss the current state of Germany, discussing how Germany's historical context – not just WWII but also the impact of the financial crisis and the refugee influx – has shaped its present situation. Plus: Germany's role in European security and the challenges posed by the rise of the far-right party, AFD.
And as Jane and Will Order the Disorder – they discuss how to create a cohesive German national identity – could it be fostering unity by creating new community celebrations?

Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Disorder on YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@DisorderShow 

Check out our recent YouTube ‘The DC Jewish Museum shooting: The Disorderly illogic of it’ - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2BaWtQ5bH-Q&t=2s 

Show Notes Links:

Broken Republik (English edition): https://www.bloomsbury.com/uk/broken-republik-9781526679161/ 

Totally Kaputt (German edition): https://www.piper.de/buecher/totally-kaputt-isbn-978-3-492-07328-8 

Friedrich Merz is no unifier – he may deepen Germany’s divides (The Guardian): https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/may/05/germany-unifier-chancellor-divide-friedrich-merz 

Germany’s identity crisis is 80 years in the making (Bloomberg):  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-10/germany-s-political-center-challenged-by-afd-russia-china-and-trump?sref=ttOZ5TVM

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Disorder is a show where we look for historical parallels to better understand our current age of Global Enduring Disorder… It is also a show where once and a while we stumble across novel and yet explanatory parallels like the idea that the problems of Weimar Germany have gone global and sometimes we even get to interview world famous scholars who have come up with these novel parallels and have brilliantly extracted useful kernels about the interconnectivity of different crises, especially as pertains to institutional weakness, deliberate disorderers, and the rise of populist would-be strong men.

Today, Jason Pack is joined by Robert Kaplan: a New York Times bestselling author whose famous books Balkan Ghosts, the Coming Anarchy, the Arabists, and The Revenge of Geography have been extremely influential in developing the concept of the Enduring Disorder. As part of our partnership with the New Books Network, we discuss his latest book, Waste Land: A World in Permanent Crisis.

Robert and Jason discuss the rise of populism, the impact of globalization, and the decline of institutions and leadership. Plus: the significance of constitutional monarchy and the current decline of the major global powers. And as they Order the Disorder – they look at how the failure of the neo-populists will hopefully lead to more trust in experts, and how the Weimar republic can teach us lessons.

Quote of the episode ‘The more abject the disorder, often the more extreme the tyranny to follow, and that brings us to Weimar’s last chapter’

Producer: George McDonagh

Disorder is also now part of the Evergreen Network! For more visit https://evergreenpodcasts.com/disorder

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Show Notes Links:

For more on the New Books Network visit https://newbooksnetwork.com/category/up-partners/disorder 

For more on Robert visit https://robertdkaplan.com/ 

Get Robert’s book, Waste Land: A World in Permanent Crisis https://www.amazon.com/Waste-Land-World-Permanent-Crisis-ebook/dp/B0D2W1B519/ 

Listen to Ep3. The Rise of the Neo-Populists https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/0c55bf63f1175d94d6a508eb72e8a84f 

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To best Order the Disorder, we love hosting live shows with our partners at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) and showcasing the great range of talent that they have on staff. Jane and Jason were joined for a live recording on May 14 by TOM KEATINGE, DIRECTOR OF THE CENTRE FOR FINANCE AND SECURITY AT RUSI.

The trio started off tackling Sanctions: the role and use of Western Sanctions before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022; how the use of sanctions has changed since Russia’s full-scale invasion, particularly on this side of the Atlantic; what does this mean for the rest of the world; and how this expansive use of sanctions is reordering global finance. 

And then moved on to the question of Markets…. and how they hold governments to account. Jason genuinely believes that the markets may be our last hope to save American democracy and that they can do what the supreme court and congress are supposed to do but cannot.  Finally, we couldn’t discuss finance and security without mentioning the Donald’s favourite word in the English language that word that he seems not to realize comes directly from Arabic, *Tariffs*.  We tried to unpack what really are tarriffs; how we know they didn’t work with Smoot Hawley; what does Donald Trump think tarriffs are.

The main take away of the discussion overall was: The failure of economic tools of coercion such as sanctions and tariffs to achieve their stated aims and the power of 'markets' to reassert order. 

It was a well attended live show with over 75 guests in RUSI’s beautiful library… pls come join us for the next one in the Autumn. And more importantly right now! Pls pls join our paid for substack to hear all the beautiful listener questions!

Producer: George McDonagh

Subscribe to our Substack and become a paid member to support our work and to listen to the listener questions which are cut from this free episode - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Show Notes Links: 

We are trying to grow our YouTube channel. Pls check out this rather racy video and subscribe to the channel, Is Gary Lineker an Anti-Semite? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gdi4vVGyCkM 

Relevant RUSI sanctions work can be found here: https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/projects/sanctions-and-illicit-finance-monitoring-and-analysis-network-sifmanet 

A recent article challenging the Russia maritime sanctions status quo can be found here: https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/tapped-out-it-time-revisit-oil-sanctions-russia 

A recent article arguing for action on the Russian central bank assets can be found here: https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-central-bank-assets-ukraine/ 

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FIRSTLY, PLS COME TO OUR LIVE SHOW. NOW OPEN TO ALL DISORDER LISTENERS Wednesday MAY 14, 17:30 AT RUSI. You can sign up here: https://my.rusi.org/events/disorder-podcast-live-ordering-the-global-financial-disorder.html 

NOW TO THIS EPISODE:

In Trump’s first 100 days he has disordered almost everything: from freedom of speech on campus to global trade to affairs of war and peace. And yet, despite his threats to abandon Ukraine, and actual denials of provision of certain forms of intelligence and anti-aircraft equipment, the frontlines have largely held. In fact, it now appears that Trump lacks the ability to force Ukraine to make concessions that it doesn’t want to make, namely over Crimea. So, is there more Order and hope to be found in Ukraine than is immediately apparent?

To find out, Jason Pack is joined by Mark McNamee. Mark moved to Kyiv in October 2023 in order to start the Ukraine Business News (UBN) Network, with the mission to aid foreign investors in navigating the business environment of Ukraine and drive Ukraine’s economic recovery and reconstruction. He is also host of the podcast "History in the Making: The War in Ukraine”.

Mark and Jason discuss: the current state of the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian War, with a particular focus on the resilience of Ukraine's economy, its innovative use of drone technology and how Ukraine could become a global leader in defense technology going forward. 

Plus: the implications of the U.S.-Ukraine minerals deal as truly game changing, the role of Europe in supporting Ukraine, and whether Ukraine's potential EU membership can offset lack of potential for it to become a NATO member. And as they look to Order the Disorder, Mark proposes the creation of a European Defense Tech Fund to support Ukraine's recovery and defense capabilities.

Producer: George McDonagh

Executive Producer: Neil Fearn

Subscribe to our Substack and become a paid member to support our work - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/

Show Notes Links: 

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FIRSTLY, PLS JOIN THE SUBSTACK TO COME TO OUR LIVE SHOW NOW OPEN TO ALL DISORDER LISTENERS Wednesday MAY 14, 17:30 AT RUSI. You can sign up here: https://my.rusi.org/events/disorder-podcast-live-ordering-the-global-financial-disorder.html  

NOW TO THIS EPISODE: As Russia seeks a maximalist deal to secure its gains in Ukraine via negotiations with the Trump Administration, Putin is still trying to spread even more Disorder globally.  

Are the Russians, in fact, the top table Disorderer globally? And if so, why? What internal domestic politics are driving that Disorder? 

This week, Jason Pack is joined by Emily Ferris, a Senior Research Fellow in the International Security Studies department at RUSI, specialising in Russian domestic politics. Before joining RUSI in 2018, Emily worked at Control Risks - a London consultancy firm - as a Russian security and politics analyst, advising clients conducting business in Russia.  

Jason and Emily discuss the complexities of Russia's internal dynamics, its infrastructure conundrums, its role as a disordering power, and whether there is genuine domestic opposition within the country. 

Plus: Railways, Ports, Siberian governorships, Putin’s negotiation tactics with the Trump administration, Russia's territorial ambitions, and the ideological components driving its actions on the world stage. And as Emily and Jason close the conversation, they discuss the future of Russia post-Putin and – to Order the Disorder – Emily explains her view on importance of cultivating serious academic expertise in understanding domestic Russian affairs. 

Producer: George McDonagh 

Executive Producer: Neil Fearn 

Subscribe to our Substack and become a paid member to support our work - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ 

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For a special edition of the podcast, we hear a conversation between Jason and Andrew Keen on his KeenOn podcast.

They discuss: is the American Dream Dead? Can you truly reinvent yourself in the US compared to Europe? And is there still hope for America going forward? 

Producer: George McDonagh 

Executive Producer: Neil Fearn 

Subscribe to our Substack - https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ 

Show Notes Links: 

To get tickets to our RUSI event on 14th May visit: https://my.rusi.org/events/disorder-podcast-live-ordering-the-global-financial-disorder.html  

Get the KeenOn podcast at https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/keen-on-america/id1448694012  

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