Many economists and investors try to predict the business cycle in order to time their investments into financial markets. In this episode, Paul and Luke speak to Tyler Goodspeed, author of “Recession: The Real Reasons Economies Shrink and What to Do About It”, who rejects much conventional wisdom on the business cycle, arguing instead that recessions are the result of external shocks that cannot be predicted. They discuss why humans are pre-disposed to see patterns in economic data, the usefulness or otherwise of business cycle timing indicators, and the likelihood of the current energy shock causing a recession.