2026 has started with a flurry of political shocks. Luke and Lizzy talk to Jens Larsen, Practice Head of Geoeconomics at Eurasia Group, about the structurally elevated geopolitical volatility that investors now face and why this matter to markets. They discuss the fundamental drivers of heightened political risk, including the end of the unipolar moment and the re-emergence of great power competition, the break down in operating consensus that underpinned domestic politics until recently, the chance of US military action in Iran, and whether UK fiscal policy will change significantly under a potential new prime minister and Chancellor.

With President Trump threatening fresh tariffs on various economies, trade wars are back in focus. 

Moreover, the risk of the trade war spreading to a capital war has become more pressing. The EU has been considering activating its “Anti-Coercion Instrument” in response to US threats to Greenland, which could see services trade and capital flows targeted. 

Paul, Luke, and Lizzy discuss how a capital war could be the next stage of the global trade war, where the EU may have leverage over the US in such a conflict, the prospect of European institutions dumping US treasury holdings, and whether the US capital account surplus is really a chokepoint trading partners could exploit. 

The recent US intervention in Venezuela is a vivid demonstration of the new so-called ‘Donroe Doctrine’ asserting complete US supremacy in the western hemisphere. Paul, Luke, and Lizzy discuss the historical context of America’s new foreign policy stance and what it might mean for various neighbours including Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, Cuba, and Greenland. They also consider potential read across for Iran, Russia-Ukraine, and China-Taiwan, and whether it makes other conflicts more likely.

The coming year is going to see more economic and geopolitical volatility for investors to navigate. Paul asks members of the Aberdeen Investments research team to outline the big questions they are asking as we head into 2026 – including the outlook for monetary policy under a new Fed chair, whether China can tackle its deflation problem, and the risk of an AI bubble bursting.

The much-anticipated UK budget has finally been announced. Paul and Luke are joined by Lizzy Galbraith to break down the economic and market implications of the tax rises, spending increases, and higher fiscal headroom. Financial markets liked what they saw in the budget, but the team highlight the backloaded nature of the tax increases, question markets around future spending plans, and the possibility of change at the top of UK politics in 2026.

The world isn’t deglobalising, it’s fracturing – splitting into US and China blocs, along manufacturing, technological, and financial lines. Paul speaks to Neil Shearing, Group Chief Economist at Capital Economics and author of The Fractured Age: How the Return of Geopolitics Will Splinter the Global Economy. Paul and Neil talk about what the hyper-globalisation consensus that economic interdependence was stabilising got wrong, how the return of superpower rivalry will force other countries to pick a side, and the ways investors can navigate this new economic and geopolitical environment.

US export controls on high-end semiconductor chips, and Chinese control over rare earth supply, are just the most recent examples of major economies weaponising chokepoints in the global economy. Paul and Luke speak to Edward Fishman, a former US State Department sanctions official, Colombia University professor, and author of “Chokepoints: How the Global Economy Became a Weapon of War”, about the US’s and increasingly China’s control over these chokepoints, how financial and legal chokepoints arise out of the structure of the modern global economy, and how major powers use chokepoints to pursue their geopolitical interests. 

France has been cycling through Prime Ministers, as the government struggles to pass a budget through a divided parliament. Paul and Luke talk to Lizzy Galbraith and Felix Feather about France’s political and fiscal challenges, what’s unique about France’s problems compared to other ageing and indebted Western democracies, and what a potential victory for the extremes of French politics at the 2027 Presidential election would mean for the economy and markets. 

With the US Federal Reserve under intense political pressure and the labour market at an inflection point, understanding how the FOMC might respond to shocks is critical for financial markets. Paul and Luke talk to Professor Tara Sinclair of George Washington University about her groundbreaking working paper FOMC in Silico, which uses AI personas to model the Fed’s decision-making process. They also explore how AI can augment decision-making more broadly and assess its impact on the labour market. 

The UK Budget is about two months away. The Chancellor is once again facing the prospect of her fiscal rules being breached, and the likely need to tighten fiscal policy. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew are joined by Lizzy Galbraith, senior political economist at Aberdeen, to discuss the Chancellor’s tough choices, potential tax increases, and the state of the UK economy more broadly.