Macro Bytes

A Trump presidency will have important implications for tax and spending, immigration, trade policy, and regulation. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew are joined by James McCann and Lizzy Galbraith to discuss the likely tax cuts and spending measures that Trump may pursue, the prospect of a global trade war, and what all this means for monetary policy and financial markets. 

Labour’s first budget was a big one – new fiscal rules, large tax and spend increases, and a big rise in investment. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew are joined by Lizzy Galbraith to break down the measures, and assess what they mean for the UK’s economic, political and market outlook.  

After months of piecemeal economic policy support, Chinese stimulus has stepped up significantly and equity markets have surged higher. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew speak to Robert Gilhooly about the headwinds the Chinese economy has been facing, the risks of China slipping into ‘Japanification’, and whether recent measures represent a turning point in monetary and fiscal policy support.

Markets are facing an array of potential risks - from the imminent US election, narrow leadership in equity markets, and spiking tensions in the Middle East. Paul and Luke speak to Carl Hazeley from Finimize about how retail investors are navigating the economic and market landscape, and how financial institutions can support this increasingly sophisticated group of investors. 

Economies are built on infrastructure. But stretched public finances mean the state is increasingly looking to the private sector to help fund infrastructure. Climate change, technological progress, and geopolitics are changing the sort of infrastructure we need. And building physical infrastructure can be fraught with hurdles from the planning process. On this episode, Paul Diggle speaks with Bridget Rosewell, board member of the UK Infrastructure Bank and former Commissioner of the National Infrastructure Commission, about the economics of infrastructure.

UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves will deliver her first Budget on 30 October. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew ask whether Labour have been talking the UK economy down as the government manages expectations ahead of potential tax increases, and whether markets should be concerned about possible accounting changes to the way Bank of England losses are treated in the public finances. 

A weak US jobs report reignited concerns about a US recession, and a surprisingly large Bank of Japan rate hike causes a rapid unwind of the yen carry trade. Together, these sent shockwaves through financial markets. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew speak to James McCann and Sree Kochugovindan about whether “this time is different” for US recession indicators, what the resignation of Prime Minister Kishida means for the Bank of Japan, and the outlook for US and Japanese monetary policy. 

We frequently discuss globalisation, political volatility, geo-political competition, and technological change on this podcast. But how can investors play these trends? Paul Diggle talks to Blair Couper and Jamie Mills-O’Brien, equity fund managers at abrdn, about thematic investing.

The UK general election delivered a large Labour majority, while the French second round vote has resulted in a fragmented parliament and in the US, President Biden’s grip on the Democratic nomination may be slipping.

Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew are joined by Lizzy Galbraith to discuss what these political developments mean for investors, including whether Labour can boost UK growth, the structural challenges facing France, and what a Trump presidency might mean for markets. 

France is heading to the polls in snap election, and markets are concerned about a potential large fiscal expansion. Paul and Luke speak to Lizzy Galbraith and Felix Feather about why Macron’s gamble doesn’t seem to be paying off, the chances that the next government enacts a large fiscal expansion, questions of France’s membership in the Eurozone, and whether comparisons with the UK’s “Liz Truss moment” are appropriate.