The independence of the Federal Reserve is under sustained attack from the Trump administration. But despite the totemic significance of the Fed to the global financial system, markets so far seem relatively sanguine. Luke and Paul discuss the history of independent central banks, why they matter so much to the economy, and what the journey to full fiscal dominance might look like. They also talk to Aaron Rock and Max Macmillan, senior fixed income and macro investors at Aberdeen, about how they think about monetary policy independence and whether markets should be more worried about fiscal dominance.

Stablecoins are digital assets often tied to the value of a fiat currency, such as the dollar. They have the potential to reshape the financial and economic order. In this episode, Luke and Paul discuss what they are, how they may affect the ways in which we pay for goods and services, how they are being regulated and what it might mean economically. In the spotlight are public sector debt dynamics, the status of the US dollar, how central banks set monetary policy and whether stablecoins pose risks to financial stability.

US macro hasn’t taken the summer off. Between tariff threats and trade deals, slowing growth and massive jobs data revisions, and Trump firing the head of the statistics authority and getting an early pick for a new Fed “shadow Chair”, there’s a lot to catch up on. Luke and Paul explain what all this means for the economic outlook, markets, and monetary policy.  

Infrastructure is one of the foundations on which economies are built. It’s essential for meeting the needs of growing and ageing populations, it has a role to play in the defence build-outs that are required in a more volatile geopolitical environment, and its increasingly critical to the energy and climate transitions. New research from Aberdeen suggests at least $64 trillion will need to be spent on infrastructure globally over the next 25 years. Paul Diggle is joined by Robert Gilhooly and Sameer Amin to discuss how “infrastructure gaps” can be identified and quantified, how stretched governments can afford to build infrastructure, and examples of infrastructure projects that Aberdeen has helped fund. 

Read the research here: How large are global infrastructure needs? | Aberdeen Investments 

The Trump administration is pursuing a significant fiscal expansion with its “One Big Beautiful Bill” Act. But with long-term bond yields rising, and Section 899 potentially making the US a less attractive place to invest, investor appetite to finance the US deficit may be waning. Paul and Luke discuss the size of the deficit increase, whether tariff revenue can offset tax cuts, and what Elon Musk leaving DOGE means for fiscal policy.

The Argentinian economy has a history going back decades of chronically low growth, high inflation, and successive crises. However, President Javier Milei’s “shock therapy” of fiscal spending cuts, peso devaluation, and an IMF package, appear to be turning things around. The economy has returned to growth; inflation, while still high, has fallen sharply; and Argentina is gradually returning to international capital markets. Paul and Luke speak to Tettey Addy, emerging market analyst at Aberdeen, about Milei’s unexpected successes with economic orthodoxy, and the challenges that still lie ahead.

The US and China have significantly, albeit temporarily, reduced tariff rates. And the US has started to make tariff deals with other countries too, beginning with the UK. So does this mean that economic and market concerns about the trade war were overblown? Paul and Luke speak to Lizzy Galbraith and Bob Gilhooly about why US-China decoupling is still a long term trend, what next for tariff levels, and how much progress the US administration is making on its other priorities including tax cuts. 

The US has long been economically “exceptional”, with its high growth rate, dominant technology companies, and as the provider of the global safe asset and reserve currency.  However, Trump’s tariffs, a possible growth slowdown, and deeper institutional disfunction, could all endanger aspects of this. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew ask whether US exceptionalism is over, whether the US is becoming a structurally less attractive destination for capital, and if the global dollar standard is over. 

President Trump has announced an enormous increase in US tariffs on the rest of the world. But is this a negotiating tactic that will see tariffs fall over time, or a permanent feature of the new global trading system? And given that most investors’ worst case tariff scenario has transpired, what other major shocks could these moves catalyse? Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew discuss the design of the reciprocal tariff regime, the possible economic impact on the US, and how things might get better – or worse. 

UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves has announced spending cuts to restore headroom against the government’s fiscal rules. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew are joined by Lizzy Galbraith to discuss the welfare cuts the government has announced, how vulnerable the UK fiscal position is to tariffs and other shocks, and the possibility of future tax increases.