The US and China have significantly, albeit temporarily, reduced tariff rates. And the US has started to make tariff deals with other countries too, beginning with the UK. So does this mean that economic and market concerns about the trade war were overblown? Paul and Luke speak to Lizzy Galbraith and Bob Gilhooly about why US-China decoupling is still a long term trend, what next for tariff levels, and how much progress the US administration is making on its other priorities including tax cuts. 

The US has long been economically “exceptional”, with its high growth rate, dominant technology companies, and as the provider of the global safe asset and reserve currency.  However, Trump’s tariffs, a possible growth slowdown, and deeper institutional disfunction, could all endanger aspects of this. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew ask whether US exceptionalism is over, whether the US is becoming a structurally less attractive destination for capital, and if the global dollar standard is over. 

President Trump has announced an enormous increase in US tariffs on the rest of the world. But is this a negotiating tactic that will see tariffs fall over time, or a permanent feature of the new global trading system? And given that most investors’ worst case tariff scenario has transpired, what other major shocks could these moves catalyse? Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew discuss the design of the reciprocal tariff regime, the possible economic impact on the US, and how things might get better – or worse. 

UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves has announced spending cuts to restore headroom against the government’s fiscal rules. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew are joined by Lizzy Galbraith to discuss the welfare cuts the government has announced, how vulnerable the UK fiscal position is to tariffs and other shocks, and the possibility of future tax increases.

US consumer and business sentiment has fallen significantly recently in response to extremely elevated policy uncertainty with some indicators pointing to elevated recession risks. Luke Bartholomew speaks to James McCann about the sudden deterioration in economic sentiment and how reliable this is as guide to future growth, the current state of play on tariff policy, the impact of DOGE on the job market, and how interest rates might revolve in response to the various shocks hitting the economy. 

The CDU-CSU has emerged as the largest party from the German federal elections, and Friedrich Merz will almost certainly become the next Chancellor at the head of a coalition government. But Germany faces profound economic and geopolitical headwinds, amid a contracting industrial sector and a chaotic European security situation. Paul and Luke speak to Lizzy Galbraith and Felix Feather about Merz’s economic agenda, whether debt brake reform is possible, and if this is the last-chance saloon for the German mainstream. 

Much like the effects of the French revolution, it may be too early to tell the long-term economic impacts of Brexit. 

UK growth and investment have almost certainly been lower, and inflation higher, than otherwise. But as President Trump threatens to tear up the global trading system including targeting the EU with tariffs, and European regulation risks stifling the growth benefits of AI, Paul and Luke discuss how the lasting economic consequences of Brexit are still playing out. 

Investors can be forgiven for having tariff whiplash, after the threat and then temporary reprieve of 25% US tariffs on Canada and Mexico, and the implementation of additional 10% tariffs on China. Paul and Luke speak to James McCann, Bob Gilhooly, and Lizzy Galbraith from the abrdn economics team about the thinking behind President Trump’s tariff strategy, the economic and monetary policy impacts, and what this all tells us about Trump’s broader agenda.

The US dollar is rising as investors price in Trump’s policy platform of tariffs, tax cuts, and deregulation. But key members of the new US administration want to see a weaker dollar to boost domestic manufacturing. Paul and Luke discuss this fundamental dilemma at the heart of the new administration’s economic policy, and how the US may exercise its full array of hard power tools to achieve economic, political, and territorial objectives. 

Elon Musk is set to join the Trump administration as head of the Department of Government Efficiency. Paul and Luke speak to Lizzy Galbraith about the role and influence that Musk and DOGE may have over US fiscal policy, regulation, foreign policy, and the broader Trump agenda.