The UK general election delivered a large Labour majority, while the French second round vote has resulted in a fragmented parliament and in the US, President Biden’s grip on the Democratic nomination may be slipping.

Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew are joined by Lizzy Galbraith to discuss what these political developments mean for investors, including whether Labour can boost UK growth, the structural challenges facing France, and what a Trump presidency might mean for markets. 

France is heading to the polls in snap election, and markets are concerned about a potential large fiscal expansion. Paul and Luke speak to Lizzy Galbraith and Felix Feather about why Macron’s gamble doesn’t seem to be paying off, the chances that the next government enacts a large fiscal expansion, questions of France’s membership in the Eurozone, and whether comparisons with the UK’s “Liz Truss moment” are appropriate.

China has become a global EV superpower in very short order, with major macroeconomic repercussions. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew talk to Lizzy Galbraith and Robert Gilhooly about how China overtook the US as the world’s pre-eminent manufacturer of electric vehicles, the ways in which this is changing the course of the Chinese economy, and why this is amplifying trade tensions with the US and Europe.

The snap UK general election on July 4th is very likely to result in a Labour government. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew talk to Lizzy Galbraith about what this might mean for the economy – from fiscal policy and planning reform, to green industrial policy and the approach to the EU. 

The US dollar is different to every other currency. The dollar is the global reserve asset, and its dominant status means dollar strength has important global spillovers. Paul and Luke discuss why the dollar has been appreciating recently, why this matters, how the dollar became so important, the benefits and drawbacks this brings to the US, and why a potential second Trump presidency could drop the US’s long standing commitment to a strong dollar.  

The traditional trade engine of globalisation has stalled or is even heading into reverse. But the globalisation of information, capital and people is still powering on. Nevertheless, even these aspects of globalisation are facing an increasingly hostile political and policy environment, including a potential Trump Presidency and ongoing US-China tensions. Paul Diggle speaks to James McCann about the nature of “globalisation 3.0”, and what it means for the economic outlook and financial markets. 

The global macroeconomic and geopolitical environment is filled with risks around inflation, interest rates, and instability in the Middle East. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew discuss how scenario analysis can help investors to navigate uncertainty. They also consider the Bernanke review of the Bank of England’s forecasting process, which includes a recommendation to make greater use of scenarios.

The Bank of Japan has taken the historic step of ending negative interest rates and may hike further. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve seems to be approaching rate cuts, but an economic “no landing” could delay this. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew speak to Sree Kochugovindan and James McCann about the outlook for monetary policy in Japan and the US.

The ‘great inflation’ saw not only price growth, but also inflation volatility, spike higher. And even as inflation itself has fallen back more recently, inflation volatility has remained elevated. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew discuss why structural changes in the global economy, stalling globalisation, geopolitical fragmentation, and climate change may all mean that higher inflation volatility is here to stay – and why this would have significant implications for financial markets and portfolio diversification. 

China has just announced a GDP target of “around 5%” for 2024. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew speak to Robert Gilhooly, senior emerging market economist at abrdn, about the challenges and opportunities facing the Chinese economy.