US consumer and business sentiment has fallen significantly recently in response to extremely elevated policy uncertainty with some indicators pointing to elevated recession risks. Luke Bartholomew speaks to James McCann about the sudden deterioration in economic sentiment and how reliable this is as guide to future growth, the current state of play on tariff policy, the impact of DOGE on the job market, and how interest rates might revolve in response to the various shocks hitting the economy. 

The CDU-CSU has emerged as the largest party from the German federal elections, and Friedrich Merz will almost certainly become the next Chancellor at the head of a coalition government. But Germany faces profound economic and geopolitical headwinds, amid a contracting industrial sector and a chaotic European security situation. Paul and Luke speak to Lizzy Galbraith and Felix Feather about Merz’s economic agenda, whether debt brake reform is possible, and if this is the last-chance saloon for the German mainstream. 

Much like the effects of the French revolution, it may be too early to tell the long-term economic impacts of Brexit. 

UK growth and investment have almost certainly been lower, and inflation higher, than otherwise. But as President Trump threatens to tear up the global trading system including targeting the EU with tariffs, and European regulation risks stifling the growth benefits of AI, Paul and Luke discuss how the lasting economic consequences of Brexit are still playing out. 

Investors can be forgiven for having tariff whiplash, after the threat and then temporary reprieve of 25% US tariffs on Canada and Mexico, and the implementation of additional 10% tariffs on China. Paul and Luke speak to James McCann, Bob Gilhooly, and Lizzy Galbraith from the abrdn economics team about the thinking behind President Trump’s tariff strategy, the economic and monetary policy impacts, and what this all tells us about Trump’s broader agenda.

The US dollar is rising as investors price in Trump’s policy platform of tariffs, tax cuts, and deregulation. But key members of the new US administration want to see a weaker dollar to boost domestic manufacturing. Paul and Luke discuss this fundamental dilemma at the heart of the new administration’s economic policy, and how the US may exercise its full array of hard power tools to achieve economic, political, and territorial objectives. 

Elon Musk is set to join the Trump administration as head of the Department of Government Efficiency. Paul and Luke speak to Lizzy Galbraith about the role and influence that Musk and DOGE may have over US fiscal policy, regulation, foreign policy, and the broader Trump agenda.

The coming year is going to see more economic and geopolitical volatility for investors to navigate. Paul asks members of the abrdn economic research team to outline the big questions they are asking as we head into 2025 – including President-elect Trump’s policy choices, the prospect of ceasefires in Ukraine and the Middle East, and whether the UK Chancellor will be back with more tax increases.

We need to talk about debt. Global government debt is approaching 100% of global GDP. And the incoming Trump administration may be about to increase the large US fiscal deficit still further. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew discuss whether the infamous bond vigilantes will return, pushing up government borrowing costs amid fears of debt sustainability.

A Trump presidency will have important implications for tax and spending, immigration, trade policy, and regulation. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew are joined by James McCann and Lizzy Galbraith to discuss the likely tax cuts and spending measures that Trump may pursue, the prospect of a global trade war, and what all this means for monetary policy and financial markets. 

Labour’s first budget was a big one – new fiscal rules, large tax and spend increases, and a big rise in investment. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew are joined by Lizzy Galbraith to break down the measures, and assess what they mean for the UK’s economic, political and market outlook.