A majority of the global population are heading to the polls this year, bookended by Taiwan just gone and the US in November. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew are joined by Lizzy Galbraith, Political Economist at abrdn, to discuss what is at stake for economies and markets. Overarching all these elections are unifying themes of political polarisation, geopolitical uncertainty, and the changing nature of globalisation.

India was the fastest-growing major economy last year, and overhauled China as the most populous country. Paul and Luke discuss prospects for the Indian economy with Michael Langham, Emerging Markets Analyst at abrdn. They talk about India’s demographic tailwinds, its infrastructure needs, whether India can be a ‘friendshoring’ winner, and what a third Modi term could have in store. 

abrdn’s economics team ask and answer the crucial economic, political and market questions investors have for 2024. These include the path of inflation, the outlook for US, China and Eurozone growth, the likely pace of interest rate cuts, the impact of a possible Trump presidency, and the potential for AI to drive a productivity boom 

Paul and Luke talk to Sree Kochugovindan, Senior Economist at abrdn, about the return of inflation to Japan, and the outlook for Bank of Japan monetary policy as a response. Negative interest rates and yield curve control could end in 2024, if wage growth and inflation expectations continue moving higher. 

Paul and Luke are joined by Lizzy Galbraith, political economist, to discuss the transmission channels from the conflict between Israel and Hamas into the global economy. They focus on geopolitical risk premia, energy markets, and the potential global inflation and central bank consequences of severe escalation scenarios. 

Paul and Luke talk to James McCann, Deputy Chief Economist at abrdn, about the significant rise in global bond yields. They discuss what has driven this increase, and in particular the importance of rising term premia for the economy and monetary policy.

Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew discuss the many potential economic impacts of Artificial Intelligence, including on productivity growth, the labour market, sectoral winners and losers, regulation, and global geopolitics. 

Inflation is falling in many EM economies, which is allowing some to cut interest rates well ahead of the US Fed. However, the recent move higher in oil prices, and the impact of El Nino weather patterns on food prices, could derail this improving picture. Paul speaks to Bob Gilhooly, senior EM economist, and Michael Langham, EM analyst, about the economic outlook across the emerging markets. 

Luke talks to Lukasz Rachel, Assistant Professor of Economics at UCL, and Bob Gilhooly, Senior Emerging Markets Economist at abrdn, about the long term drivers of interest rates. They discuss the causes of the secular decline in interest rates before the pandemic, whether economic changes wrought by the pandemic will reverse this trend, and the impact of demographics, (de)globalisation and AI.  

Paul and Luke speak to James McCann, Deputy Chief Economist at abrdn, about the outlook for the US economy. They debate whether the run of strong activity data but moderating inflation means a US soft landing is now more likely than a recession.