What was going to be a philosophical podcast largely about uncrewed systems has been completely upended by a major change to AUKUS Pillar One. The plan from the get go has been for the US to sell us two second hand Virginia class SSNs, followed by a brand new one. But overnight that's been changed - and on the fringes of the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, Defence Minister Richard Marles announced that the new one has been dropped and we will now be sold three second hand boats. 

The government has gone into spin overdrive, claiming that this is a massive triumph of planning - but it's not. If it is such a brilliant idea, why not have made this the aim from the first day? The government has repeatedly insisted that there is a plan and that plan is being adhered to, no matter what. Well, that plan has been dropped and now we have a new plan. In all probability the explanation is even simpler - the US has changed its mind and is no longer prepared to sell us new submarines because their own needs come first.

In the medium term, under the previous plan Australia would also buy an additional 2 new Virginias if the British designed SSN AUKUS runs late - as it almost certainly will. What has happened to that plan? Does it still exist - or will Australia now only be permitted to buy more used SSNs, taking the total to five?

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There's a great deal to unpack, starting with the Strait of Hormuz - and no one knows the exact state of negotiations between the US and Iran. Neither are particularly trustworthy and the situation seems to change hourly. And a quick reminder - this is a war initially cheered on by our government and even more enthusiastically supported by the opposition.

On the local front, the Collins Life of Type Extension (LOTE) has been gutted, jeopardising Australia's submarine deterrence capability. Defence Minister Richard Marles gave an embarrassing speech last week focussed on blaming the opposition for all of the problems, overlooking the fact that he has just had his 4th anniversary as the Minister responsible. Quick summary - this has been a massive Defence failure, which has also been exposed by the ANAO. Even worse, it's this same group of manifestly incompetent people who are in charge of AUKUS Pillar One.

Finally a few words about Israel, which is continuing to massively lose international support by the treatment of peaceful protesters, including from Australia. The continuing destruction of southern Lebanon using Gaza-style tactics isn't helping.

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There were two major events last week - Donald Trump's visit to China and the Federal budget - and from a national security perspective both were something of an anticlimax, which is probably not a bad thing. The Defence budget continues to track upwards and is a 6% increase over the previous year, which looks to be well ahead of inflation. The Trump China visit doesn't seem to have achieved anything in particular, contrary to the boasts of the US President.

Taiwan remains a potential flashpoint and it will be interesting to see if the US goes ahead with a $14 billion arms sale. If that does not happen in the next couple of months that will be evidence of a shift in the dynamic. Then some words about satellite technology and how Iran is probably accessing commercial services from China.

Finally some thoughts about lagging US SSN production numbers and why our government says everything is fine when publicly available information shows otherwise. Also, why did Australia rush to supply military aid to the UAE? Could there be a connection with retired ADF and AFP personnel making a lot of tax free money in that country?

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To follow on from last week, we start with some thoughts about Mogami frigates and why none of them will ever be built in Australia. The simple fact is that WA companies do not have the necessary experience - and building some landing craft for the Army will not get them there. Secondly, in an outrageous oversight during the bidding process, no one was asked by Defence to provide a single line of costings on how the ships will be constructed in Australia.

Then some history of the Crimean War and the inability of British commander Lord Raglan to understand that the world had changed and that the enemy was different from what he was used to. This is appropriate remembering that just a fortnight ago, the retiring head of INDOPACOM USN Admiral Sam Paparo told Congress that the industrial base was not producing SSNs fast enough.

All sorts of fissures are occurring in the Middle East with formerly close ally Saudi Arabia denying the US access to military bases for the short lived Project Freedom. One wonders if at some point the US and Israel might also experience a rupture.

In our region, North Asia is nervously waiting for the Trump-Xi summit next week. No one knows what might happen - and this is the world we now inhabit.

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The stalemate in the Middle East continues with neither the US or Iran backing down. US President Donald Trump continues to do the bidding of Russia by withdrawing some troops from Germany. 

On the local scene, Shadow Defence Minister James Paterson addressed the National Press Club and outlined a vision noticeably different from the government's - particularly regarding the US alliance. He stated the obvious that under Trump the US is no longer the reliable, predictable ally it once was. 

He remains enthusiastic about the purchase of nuclear-powered submarines but is less certain about their delivery schedule. He said that AUKUS Pillar One needs to be examined in detail and if it looks like the schedule is slipping, Australia should consider alternatives such as the purchase of B-21 long range bombers.

We conclude with some wise words from former foreign minister Gareth Evans and DFAT head Peter Varghese. Both believe Australia could be doing a lot more to strengthen our security without being totally dependent on the US.

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We start with the US and another attempted assassination of President Donald Trump. While there might not be a causal link, his obvious pleasure in inflicting pain and suffering on others - identical to that of the appropriately named Secretary of War Pete Hegseth - has helped increase a propensity for violence.

The US seems to be moving further away from what we regard as Australian values. Then we have the abrupt sacking of Navy Secretary John Phelan - unqualified for the job in the first place - which is part of a continuing purge of the US military.

In Australia we have the news that the government is buying an additional 270 Bushmaster Protected Mobility Vehicles and also we are spending $2.3 billion on Precision Strike Missiles (PrSM) and a second regiment of HIMAR launchers. PrSM is an excellent weapon - but we are doubling down on an overloaded and unreliable US supply chain at precisely the wrong time. A better choice would have been PrSM plus the Strikemaster system using Bushmasters with Naval Strike Missiles on them.

Also some words about a report by the UK House of Lords clearly and factually pointing out that the "Special Relationship" with the US is over - and will never return. When will our government accept this new reality and stop fooling themselves and the Australian people?

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Last week saw the release of both the National Defence Strategy and the associated Integrated Investment Plan. Rather than squabbling over the amount - there is a genuine, if small, increase in funding - people should be asking how much additional capability will this buy. The answer is, probably not enough, though more on drones is undoubtedly a good thing. 

Speaking at the National Press Club, Defence Minister Richard Marles proved again how out of touch he is by claiming that the US is still a dependable ally and that the international rules based order is still in place when clearly it is not. People can see this daily with their own eyes.

He also repeated the falsehood that the government is spending record amounts on Defence. This is untrue. We are currently at 2.08% of GDP. In 1981-82 the fraction of GDP was 2.4% rising to 2.6% three years later. During the Vietnam War it was over 3%. 

Can people please start holding Ministers to account for this absolute, provable, factually incorrect nonsense.

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Events in the Middle East continue to evolve in rapid and unexpected directions. Following the failure of peace talks in Pakistan between the US and Iran, the US is now hoping to open the Strait of Hormuz by blockading it.

In the short term, the fuel crisis in Australia may get worse before it gets better - not that you would know that by looking at the amount of jet fuel being burnt up by our PM and Defence Minister.

Speaking of which, a new National Defence Strategy will be released this week. It is likely to be dead on arrival because it has been written by people who refuse to accept that the world is changing and that the US is no longer a reliable ally.

Finally - what does this government have against South Korea, which is the largest supplier of petroleum to us, along with Singapore? Why are they being ignored in the current flurry of high level diplomatic activity?

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Enough of Donald Trump already! We can't avoid him completely but there's a lot more to talk about, including the visit of German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius - and what a breath of fresh air he is. He has called the US attacks on Iran a mistake and is worried about declining US support for Ukraine. He speaks honestly and clearly - unlike our own politicians.

Next was a seminar organised by Malcolm Turnbull on sovereign self reliance - and the general conclusion was that AUKUS is on shaky ground. Next - our question for the week: what hasn't happened? Contract signature for SEA 3000 which the government insisted would be signed by the end of March.

Finally, 2 very positive local industry stories - a visit to BAE Systems at Osborn to look at Hunter class frigates and discussions with Penske Automotive about support for military diesel engines, where we have achieved self-sufficiency.

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The situation in the Middle East risks spiralling out of control with Donald Trump threatening to destroy Iran's electricity grid and that country saying it will retaliate by targeting water desalination plants throughout the region.

Australia will not send a warship to the region at the moment, even if one were available, because the nature of warfare is being radically altered.

The information about the ship was provided to the public by Transport Minister Catherine King because the PM, Defence Minister and Foreign Minister were all too scared to say anything that might displease the US.

Our government's slavish attachment to Washington continues. Australia needs to seriously consider the possibility of being inadvertently drawn into committing war crimes.

We conclude with some very wise words from retired AVM John Blackburn, who says AUKUS is a waste of money and should be scrapped.

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