Legislation has now passed the US Congress putting in place a framework for AUKUS Pillar One. Does this mean that Australia will be acquiring second hand Virginia class submarines? No, it does not. In fact some of the wording is so vague that a future US President could cancel the deal on a personal whim. Secondly, the industrial mobilisation problems are vast – and thirdly if anyone says AUKUS is safe from political changes because of bipartisan support in the US then they must be on drugs. Currently, US military aid to both Israel and Ukraine is being held hostage to demands from Republicans to fund the wall with Mexico – and Australia is no different. Also a lot of nonsense has been spoken about Virginias – they are not the best SSNs in the world. There are at least two other designs that are better. Finally – helicopters. What a travesty that Australia will spend $11 billion on previous generation machinery, without scrutiny, just to keep a handful of Army officers happy.

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Continuing extraordinary revelations from the Joint Committee of Public Accounts and Audit into the Hunter class frigate program. Secretary of the Department of Defence, Greg Moriarty, accepts that the selected design was immature – and that he was misled by his own people about details of the evaluation. Next let’s visualise what $1 billion looks like when stacked in $100 notes – it’s about an 18 cubic metre block. Now imagine multiples of that being soaked with petrol and set on fire. Figuratively, that’s what Defence is doing with the unnecessary replacement of Taipan helicopters with Blackhawks. We provide a few more relevant examples. Finally, not re-opening our Embassy in Kiev and refusing to reveal details of VIP aircraft use – who can see the connection?

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We finally had the chance to ask Defence Minister Richard Marles some questions about the proposed purchase of second-hand Virginia class submarines. The answers are not very encouraging – details are still being worked through and apparently everyone is enthusiastic.

Meanwhile we learn much more from open sources in the US, such as the importance to them of the costly and risky disposal of those submarines in Australia, by Australians. There is no logic to this and no rationale has been supplied – we are just told it is part and parcel of the deal. Why? The US hasn’t transferred nuclear-powered submarines before – but Russia has, and they took them back for disposal. Basically, the US is imposing on Australia a far worse deal than the one Russia has given to India. 

Finally some words on how good Defence has become at blame-shifting to industry. 

To conclude on the most important topic: we found no evidence of Defence personnel conducting orgies at the Indo-Pacific conference, but the investigation will continue.

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Fresh from a holiday in Korea there was an infuriating delay in Sydney getting off the aircraft – which is not unconnected with why Defence is a mess. Then one of the most extraordinary stories about the selective use of information and how it is that we are paying the US not $3 billion to join AUKUS – but in fact $4.7 billion. This huge difference has come about because Australian decision makers have been deceptive about which currency this payment will be made in. It turns out that it won’t be in Australian dollars but instead in US bills, leading to a necessary extra $1.7 billion which has been hidden from the Australian public. In addition we agree, surprisingly, with Alexander Downer that the idea of building nuclear-powered submarines in Adelaide is pure fantasy.

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Special bonus holiday podcast from Korea – and it’s free.

Firstly, just a bit of tidying up around the ADEX show. Then a quick word about the situation following the Hamas October 7 terrorist attack on Israel. 

Following that, a contrast between two approaches to developing a submarine-building ecosystem. Australia and South Korea both started down the same path in the mid-1980s – and very importantly, with similar Defence budgets. Korea now has 22 submarines of three different generations – with the latest arguably the most advanced in the world. Australia has six ageing Collins class – so which country has got it right? 

Finally another quick word on the need to dispose of nuclear submarines in Australia – who says we have to? Why? Where is the international rulebook on nuclear submarine disposal that mandates the country buying them also has to get rid of them? It’s just made up nonsense.

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Greetings from Seoul, the capital of South Korea. We are covering the ADEX defence equipment show that includes a huge amount of high technology gear – some of it like the Redback IFV and Huntsman SPH already known to Australians. The company Hanwha Ocean have reaffirmed their interest in supplying Australia with an air-independent conventional submarine that has lithium ion batteries, a fuel cell and vertical launch missile system. Larger than Collins, it can remain submerged and totally undetectable for more than 20 days in a row. We explain how this all came about through the Korean economic miracle that started in the 1960s and has not slowed down. Finally a rumour so absurd that it is hard to believe. It has been suggested that at the forthcoming Indo-Pacific conference in Sydney, members of the ADF will be banned from attending meetings with industry held in rooms and must instead remain publicly visible the entire time. This is presumably from a fear that if they go into a private space they will uncontrollably remove their uniforms and stage an orgy.

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The dominant security issue in the western world is the attack by Hamas terrorists on southern Israel on October 7. Emotions are still exceptionally raw and there are limits to analysis at this point in an ongoing crisis. More than 2,000 innocent lives have already been lost – some in ways that bring back memories of the worst days of Islamic State. The response needs to be in a way that minimises further loss of civilian life, though the signs are not good. Was it an intelligence failure? It’s too early to tell – perhaps it was but tragically sometimes politicians have a tendency only to accept the advice that they want. Then - why don’t we lease nuclear-powered submarines rather than by them? And a final word about Taipan helicopters with the ADF now suppressing all information about the Talisman Sabre crash, which apparently shows that the helicopter was not to blame.

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