Auckland’s upzoning reforms have become a global case study in housing policy. Gene Tunny and John August dig into the data behind claims that loosening zoning rules boosted housing supply and eased rent pressures. They explore the statistical methods used, the critiques raised by sceptics, and the limits of zoning reform on its own. The episode also examines infrastructure constraints and whether complementary policies are essential for real housing affordability gains.

Gene would love to hear your thoughts on this episode. You can email him via [email protected]. 

Timestamps

• Auckland Upzoning and Housing Affordability (0:00)
• Introduction of John August and Initial Discussion (3:41)
• Statistical Analysis and Critiques (3:59)
• Cameron Murray and Tim Helm’s analysis (7:33)
• Broader Economic Context and Infrastructure (25:23)
• Conclusion and Future Directions (46:23)

Takeaways

1. Rigorous statistical studies find a strong link between upzoning and increased housing consents in Auckland.
2. Critics argue that zoning reform alone cannot overcome development cycles, infrastructure bottlenecks, or land banking.
3. Development approvals are a useful, though imperfect, proxy for actual housing supply growth.
4. Infrastructure provision is crucial—densification without follow-through can reduce amenity and limit affordability gains.
5. Zoning reform works best as part of a broader policy package, potentially including land value taxation to fund essential infrastructure.

Links relevant to the conversation

The impact of upzoning on housing construction in Auckland by Ryan Greenaway-McGrevy and Peter C.B. Phillips:

https://cowles.yale.edu/sites/default/files/2024-02/p1863.pdf

Zoning and housing supply: empirics in search of a theory by Tim Helm and Cameron Murray:

https://ace2025.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/01-Tim-ACE-2025-Tim-Helm-TAKE-II.pdf

Lumo Coffee promotion

10% of Lumo Coffee’s Seriously Healthy Organic Coffee.

Website: https://www.lumocoffee.com/10EXPLORED

Promo code: 10EXPLORED