Economics Explored

Economics Explored

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Economics Explored episodes

  • When Money Disappears: Lessons from a War

    What happens when a town runs out of money? During the Franco-Prussian War of 1870, the French town of Sedan faced an economic crisis as gold and silver coins disappeared from circulation. Yet, as Émile Zola recounts in his novel The Debacle, an ingenious solution helped keep commerce alive: locally issued emergency paper money. Show host Gene Tunny explores this remarkable story and what it reveals about the nature of money, the importance of trust, and the ability of communities to improvise when conventional financial systems break down.

    Gene would love to hear your thoughts on this episode. You can email him via [email protected]. 

    Takeaways from this episode

    1. Money has three essential functions. It serves as a medium of exchange, a unit of account, and a store of value. Different objects have performed these roles throughout history, from cattle and shells to gold, silver and paper currency.

    2. War can disrupt the circulation of money. During the Franco-Prussian War, hoarding, disrupted banking operations and the movement of precious metals contributed to severe shortages of coinage in towns such as Sedan.

    3. Emergency money can keep local economies functioning. Locally issued paper notes can provide a temporary means of payment when conventional currency becomes scarce, provided people have confidence in the issuer.

    4. The money supply is not entirely under central bank control. Nicholas Kaldor's critique of monetarism highlights how banks, businesses and households can develop alternative payment and credit arrangements when cash is restricted.

    5. Trust is fundamental to any monetary system. Whether money consists of gold coins, emergency paper notes or modern fiat currency, its usefulness ultimately depends on people believing it will be accepted in exchange.

    Timestamps

    00:06 - Introduction: Émile Zola, The Debacle, and the nature of money

    01:45 - The Battle of Sedan and the collapse of Napoleon III's empire

    06:48 - Zola's account of emergency paper money in Sedan

    09:30 - What does the story tell us about money?

    10:00 - Sponsor message: Lumo Coffee

    12:46 - What is money? From cattle and shells to cigarettes and stone discs

    15:30 - Money's three functions: exchange, accounting and saving

    20:30 - Why gold and silver coins disappear during crises

    24:12 - How war disrupted Sedan's monetary system

    27:30 - Necessity money: how local paper notes could keep trade going

    29:59 - Trust and the acceptance of emergency currency

    31:00 - Nicholas Kaldor's critique of monetarism

    33:30 - How people find substitutes when cash becomes scarce

    35:18 - Historical examples of necessity money

    38:00 - Local currencies, including the Bristol Pound and Swiss WIR

    39:00 - What emergency money teaches us about trust

    40:26 - Could emergency money work in a future crisis?

    42:30 - The future of fiat money and concluding reflections

    Links relevant to the conversation

    Émile Zola, The Debacle:

    https://www.amazon.com.au/Debacle-1870-71-Classics-%C3%89mile-Zola-ebook/dp/B00358VHSI 

    BNP Paribas, history of necessity money:

    https://histoire.bnpparibas/en/a-necessity-note-of-1871-from-comptoir-descompte-de-paris/ 

    Les Echos, historical account of the Bank of France's wartime evacuation. The episode discusses an account of gold, banknotes and valuables being transported to safety in 1870:

    https://www.lesechos.fr/finance-marches/banque-assurances/stocks-dor-6-cachettes-de-la-banque-de-france-1154241 

    Nicholas Kaldor’ “The New Monetarism”:

    https://www.scribd.com/document/516900044/Kaldor 

    Lumo Coffee promotion

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    44 min
  • Will AI Finally Show Up in Productivity? With Chris Berg

    Australia's latest Intergenerational Report assumes productivity growth will rebound significantly over coming decades, with AI potentially playing a major role. Is that reasonable? Professor Chris Berg of RMIT joins Gene Tunny and John Humphreys for a wide-ranging discussion of AI's economic potential and risks. They explore lessons from the computer and internet revolutions, AI's huge energy requirements, whether its benefits will appear in GDP, the cybersecurity threat from autonomous agents, and why competition may be a better safeguard than heavy-handed regulation.

    Gene would love to hear your thoughts on this episode. You can email him via [email protected]. 

    Takeaways from this episode
    • AI could be a genuinely productivity-enhancing technology, but forecasting the size of the gains is extraordinarily difficult. Berg argues that AI is already allowing people to accomplish tasks with dramatically less human effort, although how much of that ultimately appears in measured productivity remains uncertain.    
    • Transformative technologies don't necessarily produce immediate jumps in measured productivity. Computers and the internet transformed economic and social life, while some of their gains arrived with lags or appeared as consumer surplus rather than conventional GDP.    
    • The AI revolution is also an energy and capital-investment story. Data centres are effectively factories for machine intelligence, creating potentially enormous new electricity and infrastructure requirements.  
    • Cybersecurity may be a more immediate AI risk than science-fiction extinction scenarios. Berg argues that AI could allow enormous numbers of agents to probe vulnerable systems simultaneously, while also providing defenders with better tools.   
    • Regulation could have unintended consequences. The discussion questions whether national AI regulation can work when models are developed globally, while John argues that regulation that entrenches a handful of dominant firms could itself increase systemic risks.
    Timestamps
    • 0:00 – AI and Australia’s productivity challenge
    • 4:06 – AI, demographics and economic growth
    • 5:50 – AI’s enormous energy and capital requirements
    • 11:29 – Will AI show up in the productivity statistics?
    • 18:24 – How AI is already transforming work
    • 21:13 – Could AI change the productivity trajectory?
    • 22:42 – Could AI kill us all?
    • 28:59 – AI agents and the cybersecurity threat
    • 35:11 – Can governments effectively regulate AI?
    • 40:00 – The AI risks worth worrying about
    • 43:30 – Could AI become a monopoly?
    Links relevant to the conversation

    Full ATA livestream - Albanese bets everything on AI || #52:

    https://www.youtube.com/live/Knec2ULWCfA?si=gw7fpzRJo7kk1Kvl 

    Chris Berg’s Substack:

    https://chrisbergaus.substack.com/ 

    Lumo Coffee promotion

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    51 min
  • Gig Economy Pay Rises, Café Closures and the Zero-Sum Fallacy

    When the award-winning Springfield café  Screamin’ Beans announced its closure, Gene Tunny saw it as a symptom of a bigger problem: wage and regulatory costs rising faster than many small businesses can absorb. In this episode, Gene looks at a landmark Australian Fair Work Commission decision that could reshape pay for gig economy delivery drivers, and shares a conversation with John Humphreys of the Australian Taxpayers’ Alliance on why the net benefit of a minimum wage rise to a worker is often very different from the gross headline number. Drawing on Thomas Sowell's concept of the "zero-sum fallacy" and a recent dispute at BHP's Port Hedland, Gene makes the case for weighing the trade-offs of labour market regulation rather than assuming good intentions guarantee good outcomes.

    Gene would love to hear your thoughts on this episode. You can email him via [email protected]. 

    What You’ll Learn from This Episode
    • Why economists argue that higher minimum wages involve important trade-offs.
    • How new Fair Work Commission decisions could affect gig economy workers, consumers and businesses.
    • What economists mean by the "zero-sum fallacy."
    • Why workplace regulation can sometimes reduce employment opportunities despite good intentions.
    • Timestamps
      • Closing of Screaming Beans Café  (0:06)
      • Impact of Wage Increases on Businesses (2:58)
      • Fair Work Commission Decision on Gig Economy (4:53)
      • Discussion with John Humphreys on Minimum Wage Increases (10:01)
      • Economic Theory and Regulation of the Gig Economy (17:34)
      • Conclusion and Call to Action (24:39)
      • Links relevant to the conversation

        Australian Taxpayers’ Alliance livestream, Thursday 9 July, “Greens set to keep balance of power || #49”:

        https://www.youtube.com/live/_snxV9CzvRk?si=DXVtaaXhu3cqL8O7

        Gene Tunny's CIS paper: Closing Opportunities, Not Closing Loopholes:

        https://www.cis.org.au/publication/closing-opportunities-not-loopholes/

        Thomas Sowell’s Economic Facts and Fallacies:

        https://www.hachettebookgroup.com/titles/thomas-sowell/economic-facts-and-fallacies/9780465022038/?lens=basic-books  

        CIS’s Michael Stutchbury: “We’re punching ourselves in the face”:

        https://www.cis.org.au/commentary/opinion/were-punching-ourselves-in-the-face/

        Lumo Coffee promotion

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        28 min
      • How Good Tax Policy Gets Made and How It Doesn't: GST vs Capital Gains Tax in Australia

        Most tax debates focus on the what: rates, base, and who pays. This episode is about the how: the process by which economic policy gets made. Drawing on his time in the Australian Treasury, host Gene Tunny argues that the latest changes to capital gains tax and negative gearing reflect a breakdown in good policymaking. They were announced on budget night without the consultation, published modelling, or public mandate that major reform deserves. As a contrast, Gene revisits the Howard government's GST process of the late 1990s: a detailed white paper, published modelling, and a policy taken to an election for a fresh mandate. With clips from a recent Death and Taxes livestream featuring co-host John Humphreys and guest Derek Francis, the episode asks a question that reaches well beyond Australia: what does good policy process look like, and what does it cost us when governments skip it?

        Gene would love to hear your thoughts on this episode. You can email him via [email protected]. 

        What You’ll Learn from This Episode
        • Why good policy process is critical for successful economic reform.
        • How the GST was developed through extensive modelling, consultation and public scrutiny.
        • Why inadequate consultation can lead to unintended consequences.
        • The role Treasury plays in providing economic advice to government.
        • How poor policy design can affect investment, productivity and public trust.
        • Timestamps
          • Economic Policy Episode Introduction (0:06)
          • Relevance of Policy Process to Other Countries (4:53)
          • The Howard Government's GST Policy Process (8:11)
          • Current Government's Policy Changes and Issues (13:10)
          • Derek Francis' Criticism of Treasury (22:12)
          • Treasury's Handling of Cigarette Excise Tax (23:17)
          • Derek Francis' Theory on Treasury's Decline (26:49)
          • Home Guarantee Scheme Modelling Issues (37:49)
          • Conclusion and Call for Improvement (41:33)
          • Links relevant to the conversation

            Australian Taxpayers’ Alliance livestream, Thursday 25 June, “Labor's new tax disaster, with Derek Francis || #47”:

            https://www.youtube.com/live/vqz_hEVyg70?si=F8DS2GxdUz_-PkmJ

            Previous episode on capital gains tax, “Taxing Capital More in a Productivity Slump? Perverse Policy in Australia”:

            https://economics-explained.simplecast.com/episodes/taxing-capital-more-in-a-productivity-slump-perverse-policy-in-australia

            Howard Government White Paper on “A New Tax System”:

            https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2019-03/Whitepaper.pdf

            Lumo Coffee promotion

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            44 min
          • Dams, Development & Hyper Australia w/ Senator Matt Canavan, National Party Leader

            Housing affordability, congestion and rising living costs are putting pressure on Australia's major cities. Could stronger regional development provide part of the solution? Gene Tunny shares highlights from a recent discussion with Nationals leader Senator Matt Canavan on his "Hyper Australia" agenda. They explore regional infrastructure, public investment, economic concentration, GST distribution and the case for decentralisation, while asking an important economic question: do regional development projects pass the cost-benefit test?

            Gene would love to hear your thoughts on this episode. You can email him via [email protected]. 

            What You’ll Learn from This Episode
            • Why Australia's economy is unusually concentrated in a small number of capital cities.
            • The potential benefits and drawbacks of decentralising population and economic activity.
            • How infrastructure projects such as irrigation dams are justified by proponents of regional development.
            • Why regional Australians may face different cost-of-living pressures than residents of major cities.
            • How reforms to federalism, public service locations and state boundaries could influence economic development.
            • Timestamps
              • 00:00 Introduction to Hyper Australia
              • 03:00 Why Australia's economy is concentrated in capital cities
              • 07:00 Regional cost-of-living pressures and data gaps
              • 10:15 GST distribution and public transport subsidies
              • 13:15 The economics of dams and regional infrastructure
              • 18:25 Relocating public servants to regional Australia
              • 22:00 New states and competitive federalism
              • 27:50 Gene's assessment of the Hyper Australia proposal 
              • Links relevant to the conversation

                Australian Taxpayers’ Alliance livestream, Thursday 18 June, “Future of the Nationals, with Matt Canavan || #46”:

                https://www.youtube.com/live/D0Xpho1mxsk?si=1IWFiDOKZpTIdjNy

                Senator Canavan’s website:

                https://mattcanavan.com.au/

                Lumo Coffee promotion

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                Website: https://www.lumocoffee.com/10EXPLORED

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                33 min
              • Taxing Capital More in a Productivity Slump? Perverse Policy in Australia

                Australia has endured nearly a decade of weak productivity growth, and living standards are under pressure. In this episode, Gene Tunny and John Humphreys explore the common thread connecting several major economic debates: investment and incentives. They discuss Australia's productivity slump, the Federal Government’s proposed capital gains tax changes, Brisbane’s Olympics infrastructure plans, and the challenges facing the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS). Along the way, they explain why economists place so much emphasis on incentives and what current policy settings could mean for Australia's future prosperity.

                Gene would love to hear your thoughts on this episode. You can email him via [email protected]. 

                What You’ll Learn from This Episode
                • Why productivity growth is the ultimate driver of long-run living standards.
                • How savings, investment and innovation contribute to economic prosperity.
                • The economic arguments for taxing capital gains differently from labour income.
                • Whether Brisbane’s Olympic infrastructure spending is likely to address existing bottlenecks.
                • Why economists place so much importance on incentives when designing public policy.
                • Timestamps
                  • Introduction to episode on Capital Gains Tax policy change and Productivity Slump (0:00)
                  • Economic Performance and Productivity (4:55)
                  • Capital Gains Tax Proposals (14:24)
                  • Economic Theory and Capital Taxation (24:28)
                  • Olympics Infrastructure and Public Investment (29:37)
                  • National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) (38:22)
                  • Investment and Incentives in Government Programs (44:12)
                  • Links relevant to the conversation

                    Australian Taxpayers’ Alliance livestream, Thursday 11 June, “Tax blunders & shrinking economy || #45”:

                    https://www.youtube.com/live/K1Fsnjeg3mM?si=jKrxraJJlT0DzLfd

                    Richard Holden’s opinion piece “There is no economic case for taxing work and investment the same” (paywalled):

                    https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/there-is-no-economic-case-for-taxing-work-and-investment-the-same-20260528-p601ke

                    Lumo Coffee promotion

                    10% of Lumo Coffee’s Seriously Healthy Organic Coffee.

                    Website: https://www.lumocoffee.com/10EXPLORED

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                    47 min
                  • Debt and Deficits: Have We Lost Discipline? w/ Sinclair Davidson & John Humphreys

                    Debt and deficits used to be political dealbreakers. So why don’t they seem to matter anymore? In this episode, Gene Tunny explores the concept of fiscal illusion with John Humphreys and Professor Sinclair Davidson. They examine whether Australia is “sleepwalking” into a more precarious fiscal position, and what could happen if a crisis hits. A thought-provoking discussion on debt, accountability, and economic literacy.

                    Sinclair Davidson is Professor of Institutional Economics in the School of Economics, Finance and Marketing at RMIT University. John Humphreys is Chief Economist at the Australian Taxpayers’ Alliance. 

                    Gene would love to hear your thoughts on this episode. You can email him via [email protected]. 

                    Takeaways
                    1. Governments use various budget measures that can obscure the true fiscal position (“fiscal illusion”).
                    2. Off-budget spending and government “investments” may not appear in key budget figures, even when they worsen debt.
                    3. Growth in national debt may be the clearest indicator of underlying fiscal reality.
                    4. Public attitudes toward debt and deficits have softened, reducing political pressure for fiscal discipline.
                    5. Debt may not be an immediate crisis, but it represents a slow-burning risk that could become serious over time. 
                    6. Timestamps
                      • Public Debt and Its Implications (0:00)
                      • Off-Budget Spending and Fiscal Risks (4:17)
                      • Complexities of Budget Reporting (6:29)
                      • State Debt and Federalism (12:17)
                      • NDIS and Government Spending (42:50)
                      • Economic Literacy and Public Perception (54:40)
                      • Alternative Solutions and Policy Reforms (56:46)
                      • Links relevant to the conversation

                        Australian Taxpayers’ Alliance livestream, Thursday 23 April, “New Taxes and Rising Debt”:

                        https://www.youtube.com/live/6sc7wU8vKpo?si=QG4tmu8ntyb6dspL

                        Lumo Coffee promotion

                        10% of Lumo Coffee’s Seriously Healthy Organic Coffee.

                        Website: https://www.lumocoffee.com/10EXPLORED

                        Promo code: 10EXPLORED

                        57 min
                      • Have We Gone Too Far on Free Trade?

                        Free trade has long been a cornerstone of economic thinking, but is it still fit for purpose in a more dangerous and uncertain world? Gene Tunny is joined by Dan Ryan and John Humphreys to debate tariffs, industrial policy, and economic resilience. They explore whether Australia has gone too far in opening its economy, the risks of fragile global supply chains, and the perceived trade-offs between efficiency and national security. 

                        Dan Ryan is Executive Director of the National Conservative Institute of Australia, and John Humphreys is Chief Economist at the Australian Taxpayers’ Alliance. 

                        Gene would love to hear your thoughts on this episode. You can email him via [email protected]. 

                        Takeaways
                        1. Free trade generally boosts living standards but may also introduce vulnerabilities in a geopolitically unstable world.
                        2. Tariffs can protect domestic industries, but they also raise prices and risk economic inefficiency.
                        3. Supply chain resilience is emerging as a key policy concern, alongside cost efficiency.
                        4. Deindustrialisation is driven not just by trade, but also by automation and energy costs.
                        5. There may be a middle ground: limited, targeted trade restrictions for national security rather than broad protectionism.
                        6. Timestamps
                          • 00:00 – Introduction: Free trade under pressure
                          • 02:45 – Why Australia lost refining capacity
                          • 03:40 – Supply chains and geopolitical risk
                          • 05:40 – What does “cheapest” really mean?
                          • 07:30 – Do tariffs encourage local production?
                          • 10:35 – Automation vs trade in deindustrialisation
                          • 13:05 – Energy costs and competitiveness
                          • 15:15 – Is reindustrialisation realistic?
                          • 18:15 – What tariffs would actually look like
                          • 20:30 – Dan’s case for a 10% tariff baseline
                          • 22:15 – Can tariffs replace income taxes?
                          • 25:10 – Historical tariffs in Australia
                          • 27:30 – Are tariffs just another tax?
                          • 28:25 – Would tariffs really bring jobs back?
                          • 30:50 – Technology vs trade: what matters more?
                          • 33:15 – Tariffs, revenue, and economic trade-offs
                          • 36:00 – Final reflections: trade vs national security
                          • Links relevant to the conversation

                            Australian Taxpayers’ Alliance livestream, Thursday 16 April:

                            https://www.youtube.com/live/fyukScFysDs?si=FwDjygolodDUQVRz

                            Lumo Coffee promotion

                            10% of Lumo Coffee’s Seriously Healthy Organic Coffee.

                            Website: https://www.lumocoffee.com/10EXPLORED

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                            40 min
                          • Housing Crisis: Supply, Demand, or Both? w/ John Humphreys and Tom Switzer

                            What happens when geopolitical tensions collide with domestic economic pressures? In this episode, Gene Tunny is joined by John Humphreys and Tom Switzer to unpack the economic fallout from escalating tensions with Iran. The conversation then turns to Australia’s housing affordability crisis—examining whether government policies, population growth, or supply constraints are to blame.

                            Gene would love to hear your thoughts on this episode. You can email him via [email protected]. 

                            Takeaways
                            1. Housing affordability remains a major challenge in many advanced economies, with strong demand outpacing limited supply.
                            2. Policies like Australia's 5% deposit scheme can boost prices by increasing demand in an already constrained market.
                            3. Both supply and demand matter—increasing construction and managing population growth are key levers.
                            4. International examples (such as Canada) suggest that policy changes can influence housing outcomes.
                            5. Timestamps
                              • Iran Nuclear Tensions and Market Reactions (0:00)
                              • Impact of the 5% Deposit Scheme on Housing Affordability (6:02)
                              • Supply and Demand Dynamics in Housing (7:51)
                              • Proposed Solutions and Policy Reforms (14:50)
                              • Long-term Factors Contributing to Housing Affordability (18:55)
                              • Final Thoughts and Call to Action (24:08)
                              • Links relevant to the conversation

                                Australian Taxpayers’ Alliance livestream, Thursday 9 April:

                                https://www.youtube.com/live/hoRKqJhBhUQ?si=_1uHKUG6zCO7vBP1

                                Tom Switzer’s show, Switzerland:

                                https://www.youtube.com/@TomSwitzerMedia

                                Lumo Coffee promotion

                                10% of Lumo Coffee’s Seriously Healthy Organic Coffee.

                                Website: https://www.lumocoffee.com/10EXPLORED

                                Promo code: 10EXPLORED 

                                26 min
                              • Fuel, Fertiliser, and Fear Down Under - ep314

                                Are fears of fuel shortages in Australia overblown—or are we underestimating the risks? Gene Tunny is joined by Dr John Humphreys and farmer Peter Rothwell to explore how rising diesel prices, fertiliser shortages, and supply chain stress could ripple through the economy. From supermarket prices to farm viability, this episode breaks down how a global energy shock could hit households and businesses—and whether markets can cope.

                                Gene would love to hear your thoughts on this episode. You can email him via [email protected]. 

                                About the Guests

                                Dr John Humphreys is Chief Economist at the Australian Taxpayers’ Alliance and an experienced economist with a background spanning academia, government, consulting and think tanks, including roles at the Australian Treasury, the Centre for International Economics and the Centre for Independent Studies. He holds a PhD in economics from the University of Queensland, where he has lectured in advanced microeconomics, and has also taught in Cambodia, where he founded an education charity and research institute. John is the founder of the Australian Libertarian Society and the Liberal Democrats (Libertarian Party), and has published widely on tax, welfare, public finance and international trade. He was awarded a knighthood in the Cambodian Royal Order of Moniseraphon for his contributions to education.

                                Peter Rothwell is a farmer and former Liberal Democrats candidate based in regional New South Wales. He has contested the federal seat of Parkes, covering much of western NSW including Dubbo and surrounding areas. Peter describes himself as having grown up on the land and as an “old school Liberal,” entering politics out of concern about national economic challenges including high government debt, inflation and rising interest rates.

                                Takeaways
                                1. Markets help—but aren’t perfect: Prices usually allocate scarce fuel efficiently, but panic buying and logistics can still create short-term shortages.
                                2. Diesel is critical infrastructure: It powers transport, farming, mining, and supply chains—making it far more economically important than petrol.
                                3. Energy shocks are stagflationary: Higher fuel prices raise costs and reduce economic activity at the same time.
                                4. Agriculture is highly exposed: Fertiliser shortages and higher diesel costs could reduce yields and farm profitability.
                                5. Policy trade-offs are tough: Governments face difficult choices on fuel taxes, spending, and how to respond to a supply-side shock.
                                6. Timestamps
                                  • 0:00 – Intro: fuel shock fears and “Mad Max” scenarios
                                  • 2:40 – Oil prices surge and diesel costs spike
                                  • 9:00 – Are we underestimating the risks?
                                  • 12:50 – Fertiliser shortages and farming realities
                                  • 25:00 – Food supply vs distribution challenges
                                  • 29:00 – Why diesel is the critical constraint
                                  • 41:50 – Fuel excise debate and policy responses
                                  • 52:50 – Final reflections and listener call-out
                                  •  
                                    Links relevant to the conversation

                                    ATA livestream “Real situation in rural Australia”:

                                    https://www.youtube.com/live/MczcHEBXXIY?si=cLVJ3EWjserUeXNU

                                    Charts that Gene talks about:

                                    https://drive.google.com/file/d/1siZwkNV7QLF1PXdeg6mZJt_uomZuRpZN/view?usp=sharing

                                    Lumo Coffee promotion

                                    10% of Lumo Coffee’s Seriously Healthy Organic Coffee.

                                    Website: https://www.lumocoffee.com/10EXPLORED

                                    Promo code: 10EXPLORED 

                                    54 min

                                  About Economics Explored

                                  From the publisher's feed

                                  Hard-headed economic analysis applied to important economic, social, and environmental issues.

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