Darren is back at the mic after a month away and, again, back on the Iran/Hormuz story. The deal he spent an hour analysing in June is dead inside three weeks, the two sides are fighting again, American soldiers are dying, important infrastructure has been destroyed across the region, and a fresh ceasefire proposal is circulating even as Washington weighs a much larger campaign alongside Israel.

This episode is his effort to describe the machinery that keeps generating these crises, with his analysis intended to hold up whether there's a ceasefire or a major escalation by the time you listen. Darren starts with the collapse of the June memorandum and why the agreement that used the word "permanent" turned out to be the shortest-lived of the lot. He then works through what Tehran believes it saw in the three weeks after signing, a short theory of how wars stay limited and how those limits break, and the idea that sits at the centre of the episode: that this is no longer a war about what the two sides don't know, but about their inability to make any promise the other has reason to believe.

From there it's the oil clock — how close the market is running to empty, and why the cushions that saved us the first time may not be there again. Then he moves to the the risk that Iran's apparent victory is quietly turning into a trap, what a durable settlement over the Strait of Hormuz might actually look like, and why none of it touches the nuclear question that started the war. The episode closes well beyond Iran, with a more general thought about a world economy that has become cheap to disrupt, slow to reassure, and which no government can any longer credibly promise not to weaponise.

Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing by Hannah Nelson and theme music composed by Rory Stenning.

Relevant links

Note: Not everything below is named in the episode; some pieces sit behind the analysis rather than being quoted directly. Where Darren refers to a work explicitly, it's marked with an asterisk (*).

On the collapse of the deal and the view from Tehran

* Vali Nasr, "Why Iran is returning to war," Financial Times, 17 July 2026: https://www.ft.com/content/22fdb2d5-b454-4a65-9aa9-e56371533ccf

* Ali Vaez, "This Is a Forever War in the Making," The New York Times, 15 July 2026: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/15/opinion/us-iran-forever-war-strait-of-hormuz.html  

* International Crisis Group, "From Deal to Ordeal: The U.S. and Iran" (panel featuring Vali Nasr; moderated by Ali Vaez), 16 July 2026: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ka_G_Oi2Ez8

* Rob Malley, remarks on the drafting of paragraph 5 (via X / Crisis Group), July 2026: https://x.com/Rob_Malley/status/2076796118604632398

* Ali Hashem, “'The word belongs to the battlefield': Why Iran, US are drifting back to conflict”, Al-Monitor, 14 July 2026: https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2026/07/word-belongs-battlefield-why-iran-us-are-drifting-back-conflict

On Trump, strategy and the limits of American power

* Trita Parsi, “Yesterday's US-Iran escalation is a mere prelude to what is likely to come”, Substack 19 July 2026: https://tritaparsi.substack.com/p/yesterdays-us-iran-escalation-is

Peter Baker, "In Iran, Trump Has Found an Opponent He Cannot Easily Dominate," The New York Times, 14 July 2026: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/14/us/politics/iran-trump-war.html

Robin Wright, "Donald Trump's Ad-Lib Strategy on Iran," The New Yorker, 17 July 2026: https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-lede/donald-trumps-ad-lib-strategy-on-iran

Greg Jaffe and Eric Schmitt, "Trump Faces the Limits of U.S. Firepower and the Lessons of Past Wars," The New York Times, 17 July 2026: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/17/us/politics/trump-iran-war-afghanistan-iraq.html

"The Iran war is America's least popular since polls began," The Economist, 19 July 2026: https://www.economist.com/united-states/2026/07/19/the-iran-war-is-americas-least-popular-since-polls-began

On Hormuz, oil markets and the equilibrium

* Javier Blas, "Iran Risks Overplaying Its Hand on Hormuz," Bloomberg Opinion, 16 July 2026: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-07-16/strait-of-hormuz-iran-risks-overplaying-its-hand-on-oil-chokepoint

"Donald Trump has no good options for reopening the Strait of Hormuz," The Economist, July 2026: https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2026/07/14/donald-trump-has-no-good-options-for-reopening-the-strait-of-hormuz

"Oil traders warn market is close to running on empty as Hormuz shuts again," Financial Times, 15 July 2026: https://www.ft.com/content/6c314457-ce9a-4689-b3e1-ff637de0d6bf?syn-25a6b1a6=1

Lewis Jackson and Sam Li, “China's oil imports have plunged during the Iran war. How much will they recover?”, Reuters, 17 July 2026: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/chinas-oil-imports-have-plunged-during-iran-war-how-much-will-they-recover-2026-07-17/

Amos Hochstein, thread on depleted energy buffers, 17 July 2026: https://x.com/amoshochstein/status/2077812227890131406

On the nuclear file

* James Acton in conversation with Jon Bateman, World Unpacked (Carnegie), 12 July 2026: https://carnegieendowment.org/podcasts/the-world-unpacked/a-physicist-explains-how-iran-can-still-go-nuclear

The theory

* Thomas Schelling, Arms and Influence (1966): https://books.google.com.au/books/about/Arms_and_Influence.html?id=P-_RDwAAQBAJ&redir_esc=y

* Herman Kahn, On Escalation: Metaphors and Scenarios (1965): https://books.google.com.au/books?id=0No5uIPpD8AC&printsec=frontcover&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q&f=false

* Robert Jervis, Perception and Misperception in International Politics (1976): https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctvc77bx3

* James Fearon, "Rationalist Explanations for War," International Organization (1995): https://www.jstor.org/stable/2706903

* Robert Powell, "War as a Commitment Problem," International Organization (2006): https://www.jstor.org/stable/3877871

Darren is back to do (yet another) solo episode on Iran. This week, the United States and Iran did a deal, Trump put pen to a physical copy at Versailles, and the war looked like it might be — in a narrow sense— over.

At least, this is what Darren sought to analyse when he first recorded on Saturday 20 June. But before he could publish the following day, Iran had announced the Strait of Hormuz was closed again — saying Israel’s actions in Lebanon were a violation — while Washington insisted it was open and Vance headed to Switzerland. So the episode now opens with a short update (recorded on Sun 21 June) on that split-screen before the main recording. The good news (for Darren) was that the overnight news, if anything, sharpened his argument.

Across eight points Darren covers: (i) what happened and what they actually signed (boiled down: an agreement to negotiate a real agreement within sixty days); (ii) why the US did a deal now now — Hoover, the markets, the midterms, and Trump more or less admitting it out loud; (iii) who won (Iran) and why; (iv) why Iran could still lose the peace by overplaying Hormuz; (v) why Israel is the big loser; and then finishing off with (vi) the optimistic case for what happens next, (vii) the pessimistic case, and (viii) going back to check the receipts on the five lessons he set out in Episode 184, plus three new ones: that the strait was reopened by payment not force, that energy systems impose political clocks, and that it was regional states, not the great institutions, who helped supply the exit.

Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing by Hannah Nelson and theme music composed by Rory Stenning.

Relevant links

Jonathan Lemire, "Trump in Defeat", The Atlantic, 17 June 2026: https://www.theatlantic.com/national-security/2026/06/trump-defeat-iran-war/687566/

Adam Rasgon et al, "How the US–Iran Deal Came Down to the Wire", New York Times, 17 June 2026: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/17/us/politics/us-iran-deal-trump.html

Nate Swanson, "Iran Won the War but May Lose the Peace," Foreign Affairs , 18 June 2026: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/iran-won-war-may-lose-peace long gam

The Long Game (podcast), “Did America Lose the Iran War? (w/ Ambassador Wendy Sherman)”, 19 June 2026: https://substack.com/home/post/p-202627995

Ali Vaez, “America and Iran Have an Agreement. And 60 Days to Prevent the Next War”, Time, 16 June 2026: https://time.com/article/2026/06/15/america-iran-peace-agreement-prevent-next-war/

John Hudson, “U.S. bears brunt of Israel’s missile defense, Pentagon assessments show”, Washington Post, 21 May 2026: https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/05/21/us-bears-brunt-israels-missile-defense-pentagon-assessments-show/

Press Conference: Donald Trump Holds a Press Conference at the G7 Summit in France - June 17, 2026: https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/transcript/donald-trump-press-conference-g7-summit-evian-france-june-17-2026/ · 

US-Iran memorandum of understanding in full: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4gy700j0eko

Stephen Dziedzic of the ABC joins Darren to catch up on something besides Iran and the (still-closed) Strait of Hormuz. The conversation begins with the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, where Stephen was on the ground. They discuss the mood in the room, the relative absence of Iran from the public discussion despite its obvious relevance to maritime security, and the broader regional anxiety about escalation, sea lanes, chokepoints, ports, subsea cables and the physical infrastructure that underpins the Indo-Pacific order. They also examine Vietnamese President Tô Lâm’s keynote speech, Pete Hegseth’s address on US engagement in Asia, and the significance of China again not sending its defence minister.

The conversation then turns to DPM Richard Marles’ Shangri-La speech and its focus on subsea cables and maritime infrastructure. Darren sees a reframing of the “rules-based order” towards a physical system that must be monitored, protected and defended. They also discuss the AUKUS announcements made in Singapore, including the Pillar II underwater drone project and the shift in Australia’s planned Virginia-class submarine acquisition from a mix of new and used boats to three in-service submarines.

The second half of the episode covers several other major stories: Solomon Islands Prime Minister Matthew Wale’s visit to Canberra and the possibility of a “reset” in Australia–Solomon Islands relations; Beijing’s decision to ban four New Zealand MPs after a visit to Taiwan; the Trump administration’s proposed tariff on Australian goods; and the Quad foreign ministers’ meeting in New Delhi, which produced unexpectedly concrete outcomes on maritime awareness, infrastructure, critical minerals and energy security.

Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Hannah Nelson and theme music composed by Rory Stenning.

Relevant links

IISS Shangri-La Dialogue 2026: https://www.iiss.org/events/shangri-la-dialogue/shangri-la-dialogue-2026/

Joint Statement, AUKUS Defence Ministers’ Meeting, 30 May 2026: https://www.minister.defence.gov.au/statements/2026-05-30/joint-statement-aukus-defence-ministers-meeting

Australia–Solomon Islands Leaders’ Meeting, Joint statement, 3 June 2026: https://www.pm.gov.au/media/australia-solomon-islands-leaders-meeting-0

Quad Foreign Ministers’ Meeting Joint Statement, 26 May 2026: https://www.foreignminister.gov.au/minister/penny-wong/media-release/quad-foreign-ministers-meeting-joint-statement

Larry Collins and Dominique Lapierre, Freedom at Midnight (1975): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freedom_at_Midnight

Carl Hendrick, “The Death of the University Degree”, The Learning Dispatch (Substack), 24 May 2026: https://carlhendrick.substack.com/p/the-death-of-the-university-degree

Eleven weeks into the U.S.-Iran war, the news cycle is relentless, but the strategic position has barely moved. Darren looks to step back from the weekly churn to lay out the five durable lessons of this conflict — the things that were becoming visible in March, that have held through April, that are still true in May, and that may well remain true for some time yet.

The episode begins with a factual update: the collapse of Project Freedom, the trading of fire that neither side will call a ceasefire violation, Iran's 10 May counter-proposal demanding sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, Trump's dismissal of it as "garbage," and the bombshell New York Times report that Iran has regained operational access to most of its missile capability — directly contradicting the administration's public narrative just as Trump leaves for his summit with Xi Jinping.

The bulk of the episode then works through five structural lessons:

Darren closes with the model he keeps coming back to: what actually constrains Donald Trump. With JP Morgan predicting Hormuz will reopen in June on inventory grounds, the institutional architecture that has buffered the shock running out of room, and Republican Senate primaries clearing through May and June, the question is whether material reality and the political calendar finally converge to produce a binding constraint on a president who has resisted almost every other form.

Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing by Hannah Nelson and theme music composed by Rory Stenning.

Relevant links

Adam Entous, Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan, "U.S. Intelligence Shows Iran Retains Substantial Missile Capabilities," New York Times, 12 May 2026: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/12/us/politics/iran-missiles-us-intelligence.html

Sudarsan Raghavan, "The Art of the Ceasefire," The New Yorker, 12 May 2026: https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-lede/the-art-of-the-ceasefire

International Crisis Group, "Iran Crisis Monitor #5," 12 May 2026: https://www.crisisgroup.org/bnt/middle-east-north-africa/iran-israelpalestine-united-states/iran-crisis-monitor-5

Danny Citrinowicz, "How the War Saved the Iranian Regime," Foreign Affairs, 29 April 2026: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/how-war-saved-iranian-regime

Gregory Brew, "America Will Pay Dearly for Its Energy Arrogance," New York Times, 2 May 2026: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/02/opinion/trump-us-oil-crisis-strait-of-hormuz.html

Jason Bordoff, "If OPEC Falls Apart, It'll Cost Us All," New York Times, 6 May 2026: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/06/opinion/opec-oil-markets-trump.html

Eight weeks into the US-Israeli war against Iran, the ceasefire is about to expire and the second round of negotiations is supposed to be happening this week in Islamabad. Darren uses the framework of “war-as-bargaining” to make sense of an extraordinary three weeks—the threats, the ceasefire, the collapse of the first talks, the blockade, Iran's brief reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and its near-immediate closure—and argues that the conflict has transformed Iran's strategic calculus in ways that make control of the Strait a functional substitute for nuclear weapons. The episode then works through what kind of deal is actually possible, why the Trump administration’s rejection of process makes that deal hard to deliver, and why the West more broadly is going to have to develop the psychological capacity to live with outcomes in which adversaries get to enjoy strategic successes. Darren finishes with a moral accounting of Trump's threats to annihilate Iranian civilisation, and a post-script on what he still believes despite it all.

Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing by Hannah Nelson and theme music composed by Rory Stenning.

Relevant links

Thomas Schelling, Arms and Influence (Yale University Press, 1966): https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/113730.Arms_and_Influence

Robert Pape, Bombing to Win: Air Power and Coercion in War (Cornell University Press, 1996): https://www.goodreads.com/en/book/show/761594.Bombing_to_Win

Mark Mazzetti, Adam Entous and Julian E. Barnes, “For Iran, Flexing Control Over Waterway Is New Deterrent,” New York Times, 18 April 2026: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/18/us/politics/iran-hormuz-strait-trump.html

Josh Dawsey and Annie Linskey, “Behind Trump’s Public Bravado on the War, He Grapples With His Own Fears”, 18 April 2026: https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/trump-public-bravado-private-fear-59814dca

“Which Iran is America dealing with?”, The Economist, 19 April 2026: https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2026/04/19/which-iran-is-america-dealing-with

Barak Ravid and Marc Caputo, “U.S. considers $20 billion cash-for-uranium deal with Iran,” Axios, 17 April 2026: https://www.axios.com/2026/04/17/iran-us-deal-20-billion-frozen-funds-uranium

Phil Stewart, “Allies fear a rushed US–Iran framework deal could backfire, leaving technical deadlock,” Reuters, 19 April 2026: https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/allies-fear-rushed-usiran-framework-deal-could-backfire-leaving-technical-2026-04-19/

Fareed Zakaria interview with Ezra Klein, “Fareed Zakaria on the Moral Cost of Trump's War,” The Ezra Klein Show, New York Times, 10 April 2026: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b5hU0VHM1-M&pp=ygUSZXpyYSBrbGVpbiBwb2RjYXN0

The West Wing, “They'll Like Us When We Win”: YouTube clip: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iZYs2UpLYAI

Twitter handles of individuals mentioned:

Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz (@citrinowicz)

Vali Nasr (@vali_nasr)

Ali Vaez (@AliVaez)

Robert Malley (@Rob_Malley)

Dmitri Medvedev (@MedvedevRussiaE)

In the second episode of the week recorded just 48 hours after the last one (around 12pm on Wed 1 April), Darren is joined once again by Stephen Dziedzic of the ABC to talk through what, again, has been a wild few days. In two Truth Social posts barely twelve hours apart, President Trump threatened to destroy Iranian desalination plants — a move legal experts describe as a war crime — and then told allies to "go get your own oil" signalling the United States may end the war without reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Taken together, these posts suggest something seismic: the effective repudiation of the Carter Doctrine, which since 1980 has been the foundational premise of U.S. security strategy in the Gulf.

But then Darren and Stephen turn to a long overdue conversation about what this means for Australia and the region. They cover:

The episode concludes with both noting that the Prime Minister is due to address the nation in hours, and Trump is scheduled to speak overnight — meaning everything discussed may be overtaken by events before listeners press play.

Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Hannah Nelson and theme music composed by Rory Stenning.

Relevant links

Trump Truth Social post threatening to destroy Iranian power plants, oil wells, and desalination plants (30 March 2026): https://www.politico.com/news/2026/03/30/trump-iran-strikes-escalation-00850005

Trump Truth Social post: "Go get your own oil" (31 March 2026): https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-04-01/trump-anger-at-allies-as-hegseth-visits-mideast/106519152

Wall Street Journal — "Trump Tells Aides He's Willing to End War Without Reopening Hormuz" by Alexander Ward and Meridith McGraw (31 March 2026): https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/trump-iran-war-strait-of-hormuz-ee950ad4

Singapore Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan interview with Reuters (23 March 2026): https://www.mfa.gov.sg/newsroom/press-statements-transcripts-and-photos/transcript-of-minister-for-foreign-affairs-dr-vivian-balakrishnan-s-interview-with-reuters-global-managing-editor-for-world-news-mark-bendeich--23-march-2026/

The New Yorker — "Trump, Iran, and the Shadow of Suez" by Ishaan Tharoor (30 March 2026): https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-lede/trump-iran-and-the-shadow-of-suez

Stephen Wertheim (Carnegie Endowment) on the purpose of U.S. military role in the Middle East — quoted in The New Yorker

The Economist — “Refine and dandy: Iran’s war bounty”, The Intelligence (podcast), 31 March:  https://www.economist.com/podcasts/2026/03/31/refine-and-dandy-irans-war-bounty

Bloomberg — "Australia Aims to Use LNG Clout to Secure Asian Fuel Supplies" by Keira Wright and James Mayger (31 March 2026): https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-31/australia-aims-to-use-lng-clout-to-secure-asian-fuel-supplies

Australia-Singapore joint statement on energy security (23 March 2026): https://www.pm.gov.au/media/joint-statement-energy-security

China-Pakistan five-point peace initiative (31 March 2026) : https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/wjbzhd/202603/t20260331_11884511.html

Adam Tooze — "A Blueprint for Chinese Global Leadership," Financial Times (c. 30 March 2026): https://www.ft.com/content/cf2eeead-461d-4e3b-aeb7-48b30114643c

Charles Kindleberger — The World in Depression, 1929–1939 (referenced in discussion of hegemonic stability): https://archive.org/details/worldindepressio00kind_0

Now in its fifth week, the Iran war may be about to enter its most dangerous phase. In a shorter update this episode, Darren assesses what he sees as four important dynamics as President Trump’s new extended 6 April deadline approaches: (1) the collapse of negotiations and the simultaneous buildup of U.S. ground forces in the region; (2) why seizing Kharg Island or Iran’s enriched uranium may be tactically feasible but strategically self-defeating; (3) the widening of the conflict as the Houthis enter the war and the economic damage compounds beyond recovery; and (4) why the regime change that is actually occurring in Tehran — toward a more radical, IRGC-dominated system — cuts directly against the logic of further escalation.

If you've been following this series, this is the episode where the threads of the past month converge on a single question: does Washington recognise the strategic trap it is walking into, or does it fall in?

Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Hannah Nelson and theme music composed by Rory Stenning.

Relevant links

Dan Lamothe, "Pentagon Prepares for Weeks of Ground Operations in Iran," The Washington Post, 29 March 2026: https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/03/28/trump-iran-ground-troops-marines/

Alexander Ward et al, "Trump Weighs Military Operation to Extract Iran's Uranium," The Wall Street Journal, 30 March 2026: https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/trump-weighs-military-operation-to-extract-irans-uranium-37427c8b

Edward Luce, "Donald Trump Says US Could 'Take the Oil in Iran,'" Financial Times, 30 March 2026: https://www.ft.com/content/3bd9fb6c-2985-4d24-b86b-23b7884031f5?syn-25a6b1a6=1

Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz, twitter / x profile: https://x.com/citrinowicz

Three weeks into the US-Israeli war on Iran, Darren looks to international relations theory — particularly the bargaining and war termination frameworks associated with James Fearon — to explain why this conflict is so resistant to ending. He organises his thinking around two conditions for war termination: the existence of a mutually acceptable deal, and a credible mechanism for enforcing it. Neither condition is met, and the war is actively making both harder to achieve.

Both sides are pursuing cost imposition, but with incompatible visions of what peace looks like. The US is destroying Iran’s military capacity; Iran is weaponising the Strait of Hormuz and attacking Gulf energy infrastructure. Darren examines why Trump’s coercive credibility has been undermined by the South Pars episode, why Iran’s energy war may be hardening rather than softening its neighbours’ resolve, and what Oman’s foreign minister’s extraordinary public intervention reveals about Gulf anger at both Iran and the United States.

The episode offers two speculative theories for how the war might end — one centring on Trump’s psychology and capacity for narrative reinvention, the other on whether China could help solve the credible commitment problem by offering Iran something the US cannot. It closes with a reflection on what it means for analysts, governments, and markets when the most consequential variable in the system is a single unpredictable leader. A postscript addresses Trump’s 48-hour ultimatum to Iran, issued hours before recording, threatening to destroy Iranian power plants if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened.

Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing by Hannah Nelson and theme music composed by Rory Stenning.

Relevant links

The Economist, “There is plenty of scope for the Iran war to intensify,” 21 March 2026: https://www.economist.com/briefing/2026/03/19/there-is-plenty-of-scope-for-the-iran-war-to-intensify

Malcolm Moore, Rachel Millard and Verity Ratcliffe, “‘Armageddon scenario’ for gas markets as Qatar hit by missiles,” Financial Times, 19 March 2026: https://www.ft.com/content/5b66d91f-f94a-4ea1-b90f-ce62ccb15d50

James Fearon, “Rationalist Explanations for War,” International Organization, 49(3), 1995: https://web.stanford.edu/group/fearon-research/cgi-bin/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/Rationalist-Explanations-for-War.pdf

RAND Corporation, Theories of Victory, Perspectives PEA1743-1, 2024: https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PEA1743-1.html

Brynn Tannehill, “Why the Iran War Could Last Far Longer Than Either Side Wants to Admit,” Byline Times, 20 March 2026: https://bylinetimes.com/2026/03/20/why-the-iran-war-could-last-far-longer-than-either-side-wants-to-admit/

Yaroslav Trofimov, “Iran Believes It’s Winning — and Wants a Steep Price to End the War,” Wall Street Journal, 20 March 2026: https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-war-negotiations-demands-85555522

Adam Tooze and Cameron Abadi, Ones and Tooze podcast, “Economic Impact of Iran War,” 21 March 2026: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ckRRxpoUoPc

Thomas Wright, “The Disappearing Off-Ramp in Iran,” The Atlantic, 17 March 2026: https://www.theatlantic.com/international/2026/03/iran-victory-trump/686411/

Badr Albusaidi, “America’s friends must help extricate it from an unlawful war,” The Economist, 21 March 2026: https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2026/03/18/americas-friends-must-help-extricate-it-from-an-unlawful-war

The Economist, “Operation Blind Fury,” 21 March 2026: https://www.economist.com/leaders/2026/03/19/war-in-iran-is-making-donald-trump-weaker-and-angrier

Jake Sullivan and John Finer, The Long Game podcast, Week 3 episode (interview with Helima Croft), 21 March 2026: https://staytuned.substack.com/p/transcript-the-iran-war-energy-crisis

David Sanger, “Trump Is Finally Eyeing an Exit From Iran. But Will He Take It?” New York Times, 21 March 2026: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/21/us/politics/trump-iran-offramp.html

Two weeks into the US-Israeli war on Iran, Darren uses Robert Pape's cost-benefit framework to assess where things stand. The tactical achievements are real — two-thirds of Iran's missile launchers destroyed, its navy sunk, its leadership decapitated — but the probability of converting those gains into durable strategic outcomes is low, and the costs are mounting fast.

On the military side, interceptor stocks are being depleted at unsustainable rates, and missile defence assets may be being redeployed from South Korea in a move that achieves what Chinese coercion could not. Economically, Iran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered what may be the largest oil supply disruption in history, with cascading effects through gas, fertiliser, and food markets arriving at the worst possible moment in the agricultural calendar. Strategically, Russia is profiting, China is learning, Gulf allies are furious, and the non-proliferation incentive structure has been inverted.

Darren assesses the range of plausible outcomes — from a painful but temporary shock to a nuclear-armed Iran within eighteen months — and examines the factors that will determine how the war ends, including US-Israel divergence, Trump's contradictory signals, and Iran's determination to ensure this is the last time it is attacked. He closes with an observation about weaponised interdependence: that a sanctioned middle power with cheap drones and a narrow strait has exposed the gap between America's capacity to destroy and its capacity to control.

Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Hannah Nelson and theme music composed by Rory Stenning.

Relevant links

Robert Pape, Bombing to win (1996): https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/761594.Bombing_to_Win

Caitlin Talmadge, “Closing Time: Assessing Possible Outcomes of U.S.-Iranian Conflict in the Strait of Hormuz,” International Security, 33(1), summer 2008: 82-11: http://www.caitlintalmadge.com/uploads/8/5/4/1/85419560/closing_time.pdf

Caitlin Talmadge, "The Hormuz Minefield", Foreign Affairs, 13 March 2026: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/hormuz-minefield

Vali Nasr, "Iran is playing a long game", Financial Times, 13 March: https://www.ft.com/content/93b7b65d-074b-4e8b-807f-5c27c7362213

Matthew Continetti, "Iran Can't Hold the World Hostage", Wall Street Journal, 13 March: https://www.wsj.com/opinion/free-expression/iran-cant-hold-the-world-hostage-05f595a4

Greg Brew, "The global oil crisis is even worse than it looks" (interview), Vox, 11 March: https://www.vox.com/politics/482142/oil-gas-prices-iran-war-inflation

B.A. Friedman, "Orphaned Tactics", Fire for Effect Substack, 9 March: https://bafriedman.substack.com/p/orphaned-tactics

Danny Citrinowicz, thread on tactical success masking strategic failure, X/Twitter, 14 March: https://x.com/citrinowicz/status/2032786358930972854

Ezra Klein, "I Asked a Former Trump Official to Justify This War" (interview with Nadia Schadlow), New York Times, 10 March: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/10/opinion/ezra-klein-podcast-nadia-schadlow.html

Foreign Policy Live debate: Matthew Kroenig vs Trita Parsi, Foreign Policy, 12 March: https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/03/12/kroenig-parsi-debate-war-in-iran/

Shelby Talcott, “Israel is running critically low on interceptors, US officials say”, Semafor, 15 March: https://www.semafor.com/article/03/14/2026/israel-is-running-critically-low-on-interceptors-us-officials-say

Gideon Rachman, "Simon Gass on Iran" (interview), The Rachman Review podcast, 12 March: https://www.ft.com/content/cba7352f-aac0-4a6a-8919-c0597bc94c43

Rory Johnston and Nader Itayim, Oil Ground Up podcast, 13 March: https://open.spotify.com/episode/7uPA9g5dWIYcvGH6vSSpEh

Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal, "Oil markets" and "Fertiliser" episodes, Odd Lots podcast, 13–14 March: https://www.bloomberg.com/oddlots

China Talk podcast, "Second Breakfast: Iran", 14 March: https://www.chinatalk.media/p/iran-war-with-shashank

Jake Sullivan and John Finer, interview with Danny Citrinowicz, The Long Game podcast, 12 March: https://staytuned.substack.com/p/america-doesnt-understand-iran-and

Economist Intelligence podcast, " Lone goals: will US-Israel war aims diverge?", 13 March: https://www.economist.com/podcasts/2026/03/13/lone-goals-will-us-israel-war-aims-diverge

In (yet another) emergency episode, Darren offers eight initial thoughts on the US and Israeli strikes on Iran and the killing of Ayatollah Khamenei. Inside Iran, the question is whether airpower and decapitation can deliver regime change when the historical record says they never have — though this case may be an outlier given how weakened the regime already was. Regionally, Iran's “drizzle” retaliation strategy is targeting Gulf states and depleting expensive US interceptors, while the munitions being consumed come directly at the expense of what the US would need in a Taiwan contingency. Globally, no country or institution has any agency to shape what happens next — and China may be the quiet winner simply by being predictable while Washington lurches between crises.

On international order, Darren explores how US deterrence is simultaneously stronger on willingness but weaker on material capacity, and why the Venezuela-Greenland-Iran sequence is normalising a new and dangerous operating model for the hegemon. On Australia, he thinks the government made the right call. He finishes by asking what we're learning about Trump's emerging “anti-Powell Doctrine”, what the erosion of rules means for world politics, and what constraints — if any — exist on this new kind of American power.

Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Hannah Nelson and theme music composed by Rory Stenning.

Relevant links

Charles Clover, Neri Zilber and Abigail Hauslohner, “Military briefing: Iran’s new retaliation strategy”, Financial Times, 1 March: https://archive.md/R24HQ#selection-1700.1-1889.0

Michael Gordon and Shelby Holliday, “U.S. Races to Accomplish Iran Mission Before Munitions Run Out”, Wall Street Journal, 1 March: https://archive.md/IHG7H#selection-547.0-547.62

Eliot Cohen, “Trump rolls the iron dice”, The Atlantic, 28 Feb: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/02/trump-rolls-iron-dice-iran/686199/

Kyle Chan, “China is winning by waiting: How Beijing turns predictability into power”, Foreign Affairs, 27 Feb: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/china-winning-waiting

Tanner Greer, "On bombing Iran", Scholar's Stage, 1 Mar: https://scholars-stage.org/on-bombing-iran/