Thursday 2nd April 2020

Q2 has started with big falls again on equity markets and lower Treasury yields, whilst oil prices continue to be driven downwards. As NAB’s Gavin Friend discusses, part of the hit reflects the warning from President Trump yesterday that 240,000 deaths could occur in the United States. The only hope in the offing is a slide in new infections in Italy and a rise in the Caixin PMI for China, but we have no indication of the size of their recovery and the streets of Wuhan are still fairly empty. Whilst data releases over the last 24 hours – including US ISM and European PMIs – weren’t rosy, things will only get worse. The road ahead looks more uncertain than ever.