Baker Briefing

War between Iran, the United States, and Israel is entering a volatile new phase — raising urgent questions about escalation, leadership in Tehran, and the future stability of the Middle East.

Ambassador David M. Satterfield and Mohammad Ayatollahi Tabaar discuss how Iran’s leadership is interpreting the conflict and the domestic and regional pressures shaping its response. They explore the sustainability of Iran’s military strategy, the implications of potential leadership change in Tehran, and what the widening confrontation could mean for the region—and the world.

This conversation was recorded on Mar. 5, 2026.

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The Feb. 22, 2026, death of cartel leader Nemesio Oseguera, head of Mexico’s Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), has reignited debate about security, governance, and the strength of Mexico’s institutions. In the days following the operation, cartel-linked violence spread across multiple states — underscoring both the reach of criminal networks and the risks of confronting them.

Tony Payan, director of the Baker Institute’s Claudio X. González Center for the United States and Mexico, joins Ambassador David M. Satterfield to examine what Oseguera’s death could mean for Mexico’s fight against organized crime and the evolving role of the United States in that effort.

They discuss U.S. involvement in the operation, the political and security pressures facing President Claudia Sheinbaum as she intensifies the government’s campaign against cartels, and the potential implications for U.S.–Mexico security cooperation. At the heart of the conversation is a critical question: Will this operation strengthen the rule of law in Mexico or trigger another cycle of violence?

This conversation was recorded on Feb. 26, 2026

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The United States has launched strikes on Iran — and global energy markets are already reacting. How far could this escalation reach, from the Strait of Hormuz to gasoline prices and electricity bills here at home?

Ambassador David M. Satterfield, director of Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy, is joined by Kenneth B. Medlock III, director of the Center for Energy Studies, to unpack the energy implications of rising tensions in the Middle East.

They explore how potential disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could affect oil and liquefied natural gas flows, why the difference between kinetic threats and commercial risk matters, and how insurers and transport markets respond in moments of geopolitical uncertainty. The conversation also examines the short- and long-term impacts on global energy trade — including consequences for Europe, China, South Asia, and Russia — before turning to what American consumers may feel most directly: price changes at the pump and shifts in electricity costs tied to natural gas.

This conversation was recorded on March 3, 2026.

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What happens to the economy when the U.S. Supreme Court overturns a major Trump administration tariff strategy? On Feb. 20, 2026, the Court struck down sweeping tariffs imposed under emergency authority, forcing a rapid policy shift and raising new questions about trade, markets, and the federal budget.

In this episode of “Baker Briefing,” Ambassador David M. Satterfield is joined by John W. Diamond, director of the Baker Institute Center for Tax and Budget Policy, to break down the economic impact of the ruling. They discuss whether tariffs delivered on promises to boost manufacturing and generate revenue, how their removal could affect deficits and inflation, and why uncertainty — more than any single policy — may shape the outlook for businesses and global markets. The conversation also examines what tariff tools remain available to the administration and what comes next for U.S. trade policy.

This conversation was recorded on Feb. 23, 2026.

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For decades, global trade operated under a relatively stable set of rules, but that framework is now under pressure. During the second Trump administration, tariffs have expanded, alliances have shifted, and institutions such as the World Trade Organization have faced new challenges. What does this evolving U.S. trade policy mean for prices, jobs, global partnerships, and the future of the international trading system?

Tony Payan, director of the Claudio X. González Center for the U.S. and Mexico, is joined by fellows Simon Lester and David A. Gantz to discuss how trade policy shapes prices, employment, and diplomacy — and why tariffs have become a defining feature of the second Trump administration’s economic strategy.

This conversation was recorded on Feb. 19, 2026.

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What are critical minerals, how are they used, and why do they matter for national security? In an era of globalized supply chains, how vulnerable is the United States to disruptions?

Michelle Michot Foss, former fellow at the Baker Institute for Public Policy, joins Ambassador David M. Satterfield to examine how rare earth elements underpin civilian products, advanced technologies, and military equipment. She also discusses why national security hinges on industrial capacity as much as military strength and outlines potential strategies for securing access to essential materials.

This conversation was recorded on Feb. 9, 2026. 

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The Trump administration has touted its tariff strategy as a historic economic success, citing record stock market highs, falling trade deficits, and “virtually no inflation.” But what do the numbers actually show? In this episode of “Baker Briefing”, Ambassador David Satterfield sits down with John W. Diamond, director of the Baker Institute’s Center for Tax and Budget Policy, to examine the data behind the administration’s claims. They break down who really pays for the tariffs, what is driving GDP growth, and whether inflation has truly fallen. This conversation offers an objective assessment of how tariffs are reshaping the U.S. economy and who ultimately benefits as a result.

This conversation was recorded on Feb. 10, 2026. 

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Why has the role of religion in Texas public education become one of the most consequential policy battles in the state? What is at stake for religious liberty, church-state separation, and the future of education across the nation?

On the latest episode of the “Texas Briefing” podcast, another Baker Institute podcast, Baker Institute fellow and guest host Michael O. Emerson is joined by David R. Brockman to unpack how faith-based politics, Christian nationalism, and recent legislative actions are reshaping classrooms across Texas. 

This is the second episode in a four-part series, “Between Pulpit and Policy,” exploring the rising influence of faith, particularly Christian nationalism, in Texas politics — and how it’s transforming public policy and governance. The series was produced in partnership with the Baker Institute Student Forum.

This conversation was recorded in front of a live studio audience on Oct. 10, 2025. Learn about future live recordings of the “Texas Briefing” podcast by subscribing to our “Events Digest” newsletter at https://www.bakerinstitute.org/newsletter.

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This summer, North America is preparing to host the largest FIFA World Cup in history. Seventy-eight matches will be played across 11 American cities, but domestic politics have turned up the heat off the pitch. Questions around immigration policy, security, and global perception have intensified scrutiny of how the tournament may factor into broader U.S. efforts to redefine its international presence. Ambassador David M. Satterfield is joined by Middle East expert Dr. Kristian Coates Ulrichsen to discuss how sports are becoming a tool of diplomacy.

This conversation was recorded in front of a live studio audience on Jan. 22, 2026. Learn about future live recordings of the “Texas Briefing” podcast by subscribing to our “Events Digest” newsletter at https://www.bakerinstitute.org/newsletter.

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What do Iran’s converging challenges — environmental stress, economic strain, security concerns, and an unresolved nuclear file — signal for the country’s leadership, society, and role in the region? Mohammad Tabaar joined the podcast to discuss the internal and external pressures shaping Iran today, the choices Tehran may face in the months ahead, and what those decisions could mean for regional stability.

This conversation was recorded on Jan. 22, 2026.

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