Baker Briefing

John Diamond, director of our Center for Tax and Budget Policy and host of “The Two-Handed Economist,” analyzed the macroeconomic impacts of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act — the sprawling tax-and-spending package now signed into law by President Donald Trump — using the Diamond-Zodrow model of the U.S. economy. The results?

The package could modestly boost GDP — but the long-term benefits are limited. It will drastically increase the debt-to-GDP ratio, leading to a crowd-out of private capital and a decline in investment over time. Hear Diamond lay out the good, the bad, and the ugly in the legislation on the podcast with Baker Institute director David Satterfield.

Featured: John Diamond, Ph.D., https://www.bakerinstitute.org/expert/john-w-diamond

Mentioned in this episode:

John Diamond, “Macroeconomic Effects of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act”

Wall Street Journal Editorial Board, “The Meh Tax Bill That Has To Pass”

James Baker III and John Diamond, “DOGE Won’t Be Enough to Get the Federal Debt Under Control”

This conversation was recorded on July 2, 2025.  A transcript of this episode is available here: https://bit.ly/46s24cY

You can follow @BakerInstitute on X, Instagram, LinkedIn, and YouTube. Learn more about our data-driven, nonpartisan policy research and analysis at bakerinstitute.org.

The Middle East has undergone major shifts over the past 18 months, not least the Israel-Iran war that lasted for 12 days earlier this month and saw Israeli and U.S. attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities. A conversation with former diplomats Daniel Kurtzer and Aaron David Miller this past May illustrates the political dynamics shaping the future of power in the region, Israel’s war in Gaza, and the evolving U.S.-Israel relationship.

This conversation was recorded at a Baker Institute event on May 15, 2025.

Featured guests:

• Former Ambassador Daniel Kurtzer, S. Daniel Abraham Professor of Middle East Policy Studies, Princeton School of Public and International Affairs, https://spia.princeton.edu/faculty/dkurtzer

Learn about future events and live recordings of the “Baker Briefing” podcast by subscribing to our “Events Digest” newsletter: https://www.bakerinstitute.org/newsletter

A transcript of this episode is available here: http://bit.ly/3I59qZR 

You can follow @BakerInstitute on X, Instagram, LinkedIn, and YouTube. Learn more about our data-driven, nonpartisan policy research and analysis at bakerinstitute.org.

The U.S. is currently hosting the FIFA Men’s Club World Cup, an international competition between soccer club teams and the prelude to the larger and more widely anticipated FIFA Men’s World Cup hosted next summer across 16 North American cities. (The latter tournament is played between countries, instead of clubs.)

Fellow Kristian Coates Ulrichsen explains why these competitions and other global sports tournaments aren’t just entertainment, but a space where politics, economics, and diplomacy increasingly intersect, with a look in particular at the case of Saudi Arabia and its Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman.

Coates Ulrichsen is the author of the forthcoming book “Kingdom of Football: Saudi Arabia and the Remaking of World Soccer,” which will be published by Hurst on Aug. 21. The book goes beyond the popular term “sportswashing” to explore how and why Saudi Arabia burst onto the international soccer stage in 2023 and won the rights to host the FIFA Men’s World Cup in 2034.

Featured:

Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, Ph.D., https://www.bakerinstitute.org/expert/kristian-coates-ulrichsen

X: https://x.com/Dr_Ulrichsen 

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/kristianulrichsen/ 

Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/kristianulrichsen.bsky.social

Mentioned in this episode:

Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, Kingdom of Football: Saudi Arabia and the Remaking of World Soccer (Hurst, 2025), https://www.hurstpublishers.com/book/kingdom-of-football/ (forthcoming).

This conversation was recorded on June 3, 2025.

You can follow @BakerInstitute on X, Instagram, LinkedIn, and YouTube. Learn more about our data-driven, nonpartisan policy research and analysis at bakerinstitute.org.

This is the second episode in a two-part conversation on the challenges facing Mexico domestically and in its relationship with the United States.

Tony Payan, director of the Center for the U.S. and Mexico, joins “Baker Briefing” to examine the host of issues facing the U.S.-Mexico relationship under Presidents Donald Trump and Claudia Sheinbaum. His conversation with David Satterfield covers tariffs and the future of the North American trade agreement, Trump’s executive order designating cartels as terrorists — which has led to U.S. visa restrictions for some Mexican politicians — and the brewing water crisis facing Sheinbaum as drought at the border persists.

Featured:

Tony Payan, Ph.D., https://www.bakerinstitute.org/expert/tony-payan

Follow Tony on X: https://x.com/PayanTony 

Follow Tony on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/tony-payan-373bb870/  

This conversation was recorded on May 14, 2025. A transcript of this episode is available here: https://bit.ly/3ZVKOIX 

You can follow @BakerInstitute on X, Instagram, LinkedIn, and YouTube. Learn more about our data-driven, nonpartisan policy research and analysis at bakerinstitute.org.

This is the first episode in a two-part conversation on the challenges facing Mexico domestically and in its relationship with the United States.

Mexico held its first judicial elections on June 1, following last year’s sweeping overhaul of the judiciary. Center for the U.S. and Mexico director Tony Payan joins “Baker Briefing” to discuss the implications of the reforms and other domestic challenges facing President Claudia Sheinbaum as she carries forward the political project of former President Andrés Manuel López Obrador — including Mexico’s complex public safety landscape and mounting public debt.

Featured:

Tony Payan, Ph.D., https://www.bakerinstitute.org/expert/tony-payan 

Follow Tony on X: https://x.com/PayanTony 

Follow Tony on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/tony-payan-373bb870/ 

This conversation was recorded on May 14, 2025. A transcript of this episode is available here: https://bit.ly/445QmTK 

You can follow @BakerInstitute on X, Instagram, LinkedIn, and YouTube. Learn more about our data-driven, nonpartisan policy research and analysis at bakerinstitute.org.

Introducing “Texas Briefing,” a new podcast that brings expert insights into the challenges shaping life in the Lone Star State. Institute scholars and their guests will untangle issues in health, the economy, climate resilience, and more to understand how policy matters are impacting communities, from the Panhandle to the Gulf Coast.

In our first series, senior health policy fellow Elena Marks explores issues in reproductive health — including new abortion legislation, teen access to contraception, and the impact of the abortion ban on the state’s OB-GYN workforce pipeline — with guests Eleanor Klibanoff of The Texas Tribune, Kari White of Resound Research for Reproductive Health, and Manatt Health’s Alex Morin.

Listen to the first two episodes in the series now, wherever you get your podcasts.

Learn more on our website: https://www.bakerinstitute.org/texas-briefing 

You can follow @BakerInstitute on X, Instagram, LinkedIn, and YouTube. Learn more about our data-driven, nonpartisan policy research and analysis at bakerinstitute.org.

Drs. Sandra McKay and Eric Fleegler, both experts in the Baker Institute Firearm Injury Prevention and Safety Program, joined “Baker Briefing” to discuss the worsening gun injury epidemic ahead of our fourth annual firearm injury prevention conference on June 6. 

They discussed areas of consensus among firearm-owners and non-owners alike, including child access prevention laws and age purchasing regulations, and prospects for commonsense gun legislation at the Texas and national levels.

Featured guests:

• Sandra McKay, M.D., FAAP, https://www.bakerinstitute.org/expert/sandra-mckay 

Mentioned in this episode:

• Christopher F. Kulesza et al., “The State of Student Mental Health in Houston Schools,” Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy, May 13, 2025, https://doi.org/10.25613/6823-6W19.

This conversation was recorded on May 20, 2025.

A transcript of this episode is available here: https://bit.ly/3SnjEXs 

You can follow @BakerInstitute on X, Instagram, LinkedIn, and YouTube. Learn more about our data-driven, nonpartisan policy research and analysis at bakerinstitute.org.

In its first months, the second Trump administration has upended the alliances, institutions, and norms that have anchored U.S. foreign policy for decades — hiking tariffs on virtually all countries, downplaying U.S. military commitments, and all but dismantling the U.S. Agency for International Development. Meanwhile, as the U.S. steps back from a world order that’s largely of its own making, China is attempting to fill the void.

Steven Lewis, director of the Baker Institute China Studies Program, joined “Baker Briefing” to discuss what China’s global soft power campaign looks like and how successful it’s proven thus far.

Featured guest:

• Steven Lewis, Ph.D., https://www.bakerinstitute.org/expert/steven-w-lewis 

This conversation was recorded on May 13, 2025.

A transcript of this episode is available here: https://bit.ly/43djVT8.

You can follow @BakerInstitute on X, Instagram, LinkedIn, and YouTube. Learn more about our data-driven, nonpartisan policy research and analysis at bakerinstitute.org.

Syria’s 13-year civil war came to a stunning end on Dec. 8, 2024, when rebel fighters led by the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham succeeded in toppling the brutal dictatorship of Bashar Assad. With the country now deeply fragmented and impoverished, what will the future of governance be under the transitional government of Ahmad al-Sharaa?

Rana B. Khoury, an assistant professor of political science at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, and Ibrahim Al-Assil, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, joined “Baker Briefing” to discuss the regional reaction to Dec. 8, the structural challenges facing the rebuilding process, and prospects for the return of refugees and internally displaced Syrians.

Featured guests:

• Ibrahim Al-Assil, DIA, Senior Fellow, Middle East Institute, https://www.mei.edu/profile/ibrahim-al-assil 

This conversation was recorded on April 29, 2025. A transcript of this episode is available here.

You can follow @BakerInstitute on X, Instagram, LinkedIn, and YouTube. Learn more about our data-driven, nonpartisan policy research and analysis at bakerinstitute.org.

Federal hospital price transparency rules went into effect in 2021. Four years later, hospitals across the country — including the four largest hospitals in the Texas Medical Center, as assessed in a new Baker Institute brief — still aren’t complying. On this episode of “Baker Briefing,” Vivian Ho explains why opacity in pricing is a key driver of rising health care costs and what policymakers can do to tackle the problem.

Mentioned in this episode: 

Derek Jenkins, Sasathorn Tapaneeyakul, and Vivian Ho, “Prices Versus Costs: Unpacking Rising US Hospital Profits,” Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy, September 6, 2024.

Lunna Lopes et al., “Americans’ Challenges With Health Care Costs,” KFF, March 1, 2024, https://www.kff.org/health-costs/issue-brief/americans-challenges-with-health-care-costs/.

Shameek Rakshit et al., “The Burden of Medical Debt in the United States,” Peterson-KFF Health System Tracker, February 12, 2024, https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/brief/the-burden-of-medical-debt-in-the-united-states/.

Sebastian Spataro Solorzano, Blake Davidson, and Vivian Ho, “Revisiting Price Transparency at Texas Medical Center Hospitals,” Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy, April 29, 2025.

You can follow @BakerInstitute on X, Instagram, LinkedIn, and YouTube. Learn more about our data-driven, nonpartisan policy research and analysis at bakerinstitute.org.

Additional sources for this episode:

American Hospital Association, Trend Watch Chartbook 2018: Trends Affecting Hospitals and Health Systems (2018), https://www.aha.org/system/files/media/file/2022/11/2018-TrendWatch-Chartbook-Full.pdf.

Zach Cooper et al., “The Price Ain’t Right? Hospital Prices and Health Spending on the Privately Insured,” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 134, no. 1 (February 2019): 51–107, https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjy020.

Health Affairs, “The Role Of Administrative Waste In Excess US Health Spending,” October 6, 2022, https://www.healthaffairs.org/content/briefs/role-administrative-waste-excess-us-health-spending.

• Salpy Kanimian and Vivian Ho, “Why Does the Cost of Employer-Sponsored Coverage Keep Rising?,” Health Affairs Scholar 2, no. 6 (June 2024), qxae078, https://doi.org/10.1093/haschl/qxae078.