#BalkansDebrief

As 2024 dawns, the Balkans cling to a fragile dream: EU membership. But the region and the Union itself are beset by internal tremors. From simmering protests in Serbia to looming threats and economic storms, the region braces for a year of turbulence. Can they emerge resilient from this crucible?

Ilva Tare, Nonresident Senior Fellow, delves into these questions and more with Ivan Krastev, chair of the Center for Liberal Strategies and Permanent Fellow at the Institute for Human Sciences in Vienna.

Krastev casts a cautious eye on EU reform prospects, outlining potential timelines and highlighting the factors that could determine success or failure. He also analyzes how the November US elections might reshape Washington's engagement with the Balkans, with implications for the region as a whole and, in particular, the fragile Kosovo-Serbia dialogue.

From unexpected twists in the electoral landscape to the ever-shifting sands of regional politics, this year promises to be a rollercoaster. Tune in to hear Krastev's insights into the key forces at play and why the Balkans and not only, are poised for a turbulent year.

Serbia witnessed a tumultuous end to 2023, with protests erupting in Belgrade following the December 17th elections. Thousands demand the annulment, alleging President Vučić's Progressive Party fabricated results through cross-border voting. Despite claiming a "cleanest and most honest" victory, international observers have condemned widespread fraud and manipulation. The West, has been criticized for turning a blind eye to Vučić's actions. But with renewed protests and whispers of regional conflict, will the honeymoon end?

Nonresident Senior Fellow Ilva Tare speaks to Rasa Nedeljkov, Program Director of the Center for Research, Transparency and Accountability which has monitored closely the election with particular focus on the capital, Belgrade.

International observers have condemned the irregularities, while Brussels and Washington demand a response from the government. What role can the international community play in mitigating these tensions? How should the West engage moving forward? Were the alleged manipulations significant enough to alter the outcome? If a rerun were to occur, particularly in Belgrade, could a different outcome be anticipated?

A sigh of relief, perhaps even cautious optimism, has swept across the Western Balkans. The EU Council's decision to open accession talks with Ukraine and Moldova, alongside a conditional green light for Bosnia and Herzegovina, signals renewed engagement with the region. But is this truly a new dawn, or just a flicker of light in persistent uncertainty?

The stakes are high, with implications for political stability, economic growth, and ultimately, the future of the Western Balkan six countries.

Nonresident Senior Fellow Ilva Tare speaks to Atlantic Council Europe Center's Balkans Forward team: Maja Piscevic, Amb. Cameron Munter, and Valbona Zeneli.

Will the renewed EU enlargement commitment mark the long-awaited entry point for the Balkans onto the European stage? While the Council's decision marks a step forward, is it enough to sustain the momentum for Western Balkan accession, or are there still significant hurdles to overcome before reaching the European stage? Will the EU reform the enlargement process, and how possible is it to achieve the ambitious goal of doubling the region's economic growth in a decade?

In a groundbreaking agreement, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and her Albanian counterpart Edi Rama have agreed to establish a migrant processing center in Albania. The center will be funded by Italy and operate under Italian jurisdiction.

This unprecedented move, with funding from Italy and operation under Italian jurisdiction, has sparked a heated debate, raising concerns about its adherence to international and European legal frameworks governing asylum rights. While the European Commission has maintained that the deal does not contravene EU asylum law, human rights groups remain wary of its potential impact on the rights of migrants.

Nonresident Senior Fellow Ilva Tare speaks to Nathalie Tocci, Director of the Instituto Affari Internazionali in Italy, about the political and social implications of this agreement.

Will this deal set a precedent for other EU member states to outsource their asylum processing to non-EU countries or aspiring EU candidates? What are the primary concerns surrounding the effective implementation of the agreement? And could this approach serve as a potential solution to the escalating migration flows reaching EU shores?

Kosovo's government's accepted the US-backed EU draft for the Association of Serbian Municipalities (ASM), a positive move towards normalizing Serbia-Kosovo relations. However, the questions remain on how to ensure the ASM's implementation. Ambassador of the United States to the Republic of Kosovo, Jeffrey M. Hovenier says it is crucial to move forward with the ASM and to not get caught up in formalities. This stance was echoed by Prime Minister Albin Kurti regarding Serbia's refusal to sign the EU's draft agreement. What institutions will be created as part of the ASM? What are the possible consequences for Kosovo and Serbia if there is a further delay in the ASM's implementation? How will US-Kosovo relationship look in the case of a successful normalization dialogue?

After four and a half months of negotiations, a new pro-EU government led by the "Europe Now" leader, Milojko Spajic, was voted in by Parliament. The government includes a coalition of pro-European and pro-Serbian parties. In reaction to the appointment of Andrija Mandic, head of a pro-Serb and pro-Russia alliance called "For a Better Montenegro," protests emerged in Podgorica.

In this episode of #BalkansDebrief, Ilva Tare, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council's Europe Center, speaks to political analyst and the director of the Institute for SocioPolitical Research - Analitico, Ana Nenezic.

How will the new government be able to reconcile the presence of pro-Russian figures in the government with their pro-EU goals? Will this be a stable government? What does the new government composition mean for Russia and Serbia in the NATO member country?

The European Parliament's (EP) resolution condemning Serbia's actions in northern Kosovo marks a significant development in the ongoing crisis between the two countries. The resolution calls for a freeze on funding for the Serbian government if it is found to have been directly involved in the recent attack in Banjska.

In a debrief with Nonresident Senior Fellow Ilva Tare, Viola von Cramon, a member of the EP Foreign Affairs Committee and the Rapporteur on Kosovo, discusses the implications of the resolution and the EU's role in ensuring that Serbia cooperates fully with the investigation into the Banjska attack.

What measures can the EU implement to guarantee Serbia's unconditional cooperation in the investigation of the Banjska attack? Why is time of the essence to swiftly resume the EU-led dialogue and achieve normalization between Kosovo and Serbia?

The recent murder of a Kosovar Albanian police officer by dozens of Serbian gunmen in the north of Kosovo is a reminder of the increasing security concerns between the two nations and the region at large. Given that the EU-led Belgrade-Pristina Dialogue for comprehensive normalization has reached a dead end, how should the international community respond to the violence and reconvene a dialogue?

Nonresident Senior Fellow Ilva Tare discusses the course of action for international engagement in the region with British MP Alicia Kearns, Chair of the Foreign Affairs Select Committee, UK House of Commons. Kearns has been pushing for a more robust international response to prevent further escalation with improved deterrence measures.

What is the future of the normalization dialogue between Serbia and Kosovo? How will the EU respond to Serbia's role in the attack in northern Kosovo led by Kosovo Serb Milan Radoicic? What actions can the UK and the international community at large take to promote inter-ethnic understanding in Kosovo? Should Kosovo uphold its commitment to implement the Association of Serbian Municipalities (ASM)?

The war in Ukraine has renewed interest in EU enlargement in Eastern Europe and the Western Balkans. The Berlin Process, which has been working to revitalize ties between Western Balkan candidate countries and the EU for the last 10 years, is now seeing its efforts pay off.

The 2023 Tirana Civil Society and Think Tank Forum is playing a key role in the conversation on EU Enlargement into the Balkans. The forum, organized by the Open Society Foundation Western Balkans (OSF-WB), the Hellenic Foundation for European & Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP), and the Cooperation & Development Institute (CDI) as part of the Berlin Summit, will be held in Albania on October 14th–15th. Regional experts will gather to develop strategies for cooperation, accelerated EU reforms, and accession processes.

In this episode of BalkansDebrief, Nonresident Senior Fellow Ilva Tare and Western Balkans Executive Director of the Open Society Foundation Andi Dobrushi discuss the importance of holding Western Balkan governments and EU member states accountable for their commitments to candidate countries' EU reforms as well as the role of civil society in the Western Balkans enlargement process.

What role can civil society organizations play in promoting democracy, human rights, and the rule of law in the region? How can civil society and think tank experts hold decision-makers accountable and influence the direction of Western Balkans accession processes?

As the EU-facilitated dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina in Brussels faces a critical juncture, the pressing question arises: How do we navigate this impasse?

In this episode of #BalkansDebrief, Nonresident Senior Fellow Ilva Tare talks to two civil society leaders, Milica Andric Rakic, program manager at the New Social Initiative, and Shpetim Gashi, Vice President of the Council for Inclusive Governance, to discuss steps needed for integrating the Serb community in the north of Kosovo.

In their op-ed for the New Atlanticist, Gashi and Andric Rakic proposed delinking the issue of integration from the broader status dispute between Kosovo and Serbia. How feasible is this approach? What role can the international community play in facilitating a resolution to the crisis in Kosovo?