Ballot to Talk About

This week's episode looks both back at results from two elections in Eastern Europe last week – presidential and parliamentary elections in Serbia and the legislative elections in Hungary. In Serbia, Aleksandar Vucic has easily won re-election as Serbian President, alongside his SNS party winning a plurality of seats in Parliament. What is the key to Vucic’s significant popularity? What has been the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on the campaign there? And what can the Opposition do to become more of a force?

In Hungary, as Viktor Orban wins a fourth successive term as Prime Minister, Sam and Chern assess his consolidation of power and what went wrong for the united opposition. Was it a mistake for the Opposition to unite, and were they ultimately incapable of presenting a united front? Are institutional reasons alone the key to Orban’s continued success? And what lessons can be drawn from these two election results in Eastern Europe? All these questions, and more, answered in this week's podcast.

This week's episode looks both back at results from two elections in Europe last week – a regional election in the German state of Saarland and national parliamentary elections in Malta. In Saarland, the SPD won their first outright majority in a state election since Hamburg in 2011 and continues the success of Olaf Scholz after last year’s federal election. How did the SPD pull of such a victory? Does it reflect a Scholz honeymoon period? And will this wave of success carry on into state elections later in the year?

In Malta, the Labour Party has won a third successive majority government, building on their vote share from last time and returning Robert Abela to the premiership. Sam and Chern discuss the potential reasons for this victory and what it means for the Nationalist opposition who will be nearing a decade in opposition. What was the impact of the Daphne Caruana Galizia case on the election? What have been the key ingredients to the continued success of the Labour Party? Do the Nationalists need to reinvent themselves to become a party of government once more? And how has Malta been able to sustain a solid two-party system at a time of growing fragmentation around Europe? All these questions, and more, answered in this week's podcast.

This week's episode looks back at the results from last weekend’s state election in South Australia where Premier Steven Marshall became the first incumbent Australian leader to be defeated at the ballot box since the beginning of the pandemic. Sam and Chern break down the results and discuss the potential reasons why Peter Malinauskas and his Labor Party was able to pull off such a strong victory. What were the statewide ingredients for this Labor majority? Did we learn anything about the Government in the announcement of the new Cabinet? Why did Steven Marshall fail to win a second term? Is the growing strength of Independents something we will see beyond the borders of South Australia in the upcoming federal election? And how will Scott Morrison react to these results with a federal election just 2 months away? All these questions and more answered in this week’s podcast.

This week's episode takes a look at this year's Indian State elections across Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Goa, Uttarakhand and Manipur. Narendra Modi’s BJP has had yet another excellent set of elections in India, winning 4 of the 5 states in question as attention begins to turn towards the Lok Sabha elections in 2024. How did Yogi Adityanath become the first incumbent government in Uttar Pradesh to win re-election in 37 years? Is he now well-positioned to take over from Modi? After a very successful set of results in Punjab, is the AAP set for increased national success in 2024? After yet further declining fortunes, has the Congress Party lost the confidence of voters to be a major player in Indian politics? All these questions, and more, answered in this week's podcast.

This week's episode looks back at the results of last weekend’s South Korean presidential election where Yoon Suk-yeol triumphed over Lee Jae-myung. Following the very tight results, Sam and Chern dissect what could have made the difference in the closing days and give Yoon the narrow upper hand. Did Ahn Cheol-soo’s late withdrawal give Yoon the advantage, or was it surprising how few of Ahn’s voters made their way to the Yoon campaign? Conversely did Sim Sang-jung remaining in the race disadvantage Lee and narrowly split the progressive vote? What will the Yoon presidency look like, especially with the context of a Democratic National Assembly? All these questions and more answered in this week’s podcast.

This week's episode looks ahead to the upcoming state election in South Australia where Premier Steven Marshall is looking to win a second term for his Liberal Party. Sam and Chern discuss the state of the campaign and which electorates could decide this race and should be closely watched as election day approaches. Why is Steven Marshall struggling to replicate the Covid electoral bounce that benefitted other state leaders in polls and elections throughout 2021? Why have South Australian Liberals struggled in the past? Unusually for Australian politics, is Peter Malinauskas well-positioned to limit Marshall to one term? And what will the impact of the six Independents who are looking to defend their seats in a few weeks time? All these questions and more answered in this week’s podcast.

This week's episode looks ahead to the upcoming South Korean presidential election where voters will go to the polls to elect Moon Jae-in’s successor. It looks to be a very tight race between Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party and Yoon Suk-yeol of the People Power Party – two candidates of very different ideologies and very different economic and political intentions. What will be Moon Jae-in’s legacy as he leaves office? How have the numerous scandals surrounding both candidates affected the race? Have the Primary Election experiences of both Lee and Yoon left their respective parties severely divided? And how will that impact the race on election day? All these questions and more answered in this week’s podcast.

This week's episode looks at results from last weekend’s election in the Spanish autonomous community of Castile and Leon. The incumbent governing Peoples Party had been polling strongly throughout Winter, but failed to replicate those results, falling to their lowest ever vote share. Did Alfonso Fernández Mañueco make a mistake in calling the early election? Why did the Peoples Party fall so short of expectations? Will they go into government with the far-right Vox Party for the first time? And with a General Election a year away and elections coming up this year in Andalucia, how will the Socialists rate their performance in this regional election? All these questions and more answered in this week’s podcast.

This week's episode looks at the results from the first round of the Costa Rican presidential election and at the outcomes of the four by-elections held this weekend in the Australian state of New South Wales. In Costa Rica, the second round will be a battle of the exes as Jose Maria Figueres (former President) and Rodrigo Chaves (former Finance Minister) will face each other for the presidency in April. How did we end up with two Social Democratic candidates in the second round? What explains the total collapse of the Citizens Action Party who lost all of their seats in the Legislative Assembly? Who is more favoured to pick up the voters of the centre-right in the second round in two months’ time?

In New South Wales, whilst three of the four by-elections look to have been retained by the incumbent party, the coastal seat of Bega looks set to be a Labor gain. With a General Election just around the corner and a state-wide election a year away, Sam and Chern assess what the big takeaways for Labor and the Liberal/National Coalition might be. Will Labor be disappointed with just the one pick-up? Should the alarm bells be ringing for Premier Dominic Perrottet? Are there any clues to be taken from these by-elections for how the May national election might play out? All these questions, and more, answered in this week's podcast.

This week's episode looks back at the results of the Portuguese legislative election and discusses the recently concluded turbulent contest to succeed Sergio Matterella as Italian President. After initially pledging to stand down and after seven inconclusive ballots of delegates, Mattarella agreed to return as President for a second term after Mario Draghi reached out. Why did he end up being the only consensus candidate? What does it say about the state of Italian politics that no other candidate could receive majority support across the parties? And after expressing an interest in serving as President, could Mario Draghi be transitioning from one office to another after next year’s general election?

In Portugal, Antonio Costa has emerged from the snap legislative election with his first absolute majority and a third term in office for his Socialist Party. As the dust settles, Sam and Chern discuss how the race swung towards the Socialists in the final days and whether they are surprised at the overall result. How did Costa manage to pull off this victory given the narrowing of the polls throughout the campaign? Were the Left Bloc and Communists blamed for this election at the ballot box? How will the Social Democrats respond to their seat count falling and Rui Rio bringing his leadership to an end? And with the rise of CHEGA, is this the beginning of a realignment of the Portuguese party system? All these questions, and more, answered in this week's podcast.