Ballot to Talk About

This week's episode looks both backwards and forwards to two of January’s national elections – back at the results of the Barbados General Election and ahead to next week’s Portuguese legislative elections. In Barbados, Mia Mottley has pulled off a second successive total landslide by winning all 30 seats in the House of Assembly – our 2021 Rising Star of the Year kicks of the electoral calendar in remarkable style. How did her BLP pull off this second victory? What will the latest Mottley government look like? Is such complete control of the legislature bad for democracy?

In Portugal, Antonio Costa is fighting a snap election after the failure to pass the state budget – Sam and Chern discuss the state of the race and who the main challengers are. Is the state budget itself the main issue on the campaign trail? Was Costa always at risk after his choice to opt for an informal governing arrangement rather than a left-wing coalition government? Why are the Social Democrats not capitalising on Costa’s political problems, and is Rui Rio’s leadership of the party hanging by a thread? And how has Portugal, until now, evaded a significant far-right presence in their politics? Why now, and why Chega? All these questions, and more, answered in this week's podcast.

This week’s episode looks ahead to the year 2022 in politics and elections, discussing the polls to look out for and the themes we might be talking about as the year rolls on. It also features a recap of the Dutch government talks that finally concluded in the last few weeks – Mark Rutte has returned as Prime Minister leading the same coalition, but why did it take so long? Without a majority in the Senate, how might this government get its legislative agenda passed? And what will this new government do differently than the previous one?

2022 has numerous big elections in store in Australia, France, Japan and India to name just a few. This week, Sam and Chern preview the electoral calendar, picking out some highlights and previewing some stories that are likely to define the political year region by region. In the Americas, is it going to prove to be a difficult year for incumbents? Are the US midterms once again going to prove to be challenging for the White House and will Joe Biden’s Democrats lose their majority in both Chambers? Will Indian state elections this year be a big clue to the future of the country beyond Modi? And in Europe, will it be a big hint of the changing fortunes of populists as a moderate centre-left revival begins? All these questions and more answered in this week’s episode.

This week’s episode looks back at the results from Chile’s presidential election and assesses one of the bigger issues of 2021 in climate change. Gabriel Boric has pulled off a big left-wing victory against Jose Antonio Kast in the second round of the Chilean presidential election, but does the divided Congress mean that he will face a tricky road in passing his desired legislative programme? Why did the left-wing energy of the Constitutional Convention elections reappear in this second round after failing to materialise in the first? Was the increased turnout a big reason for the Boric victory?

The episode also takes a deeper dive into one of the biggest political themes of 2021 – climate change. In the year of COP26 in Glasgow, climate change and policies to combat it has been a theme at the ballot box and on political campaigns, but was it a clincher at the ballot box? Sam and Chern look at whether 2021 was a big year for climate politics or whether it was significantly less important than other issues like the pandemic and the economy. Was COP26 a success? Will climate activists be happy with climate consciousness, or is there still more political work to do? And is climate destined to be a larger issue in 2022 and beyond? All these questions and more answered in this week’s episode.

This week’s episode takes a look at the state of the main UK political parties as 2021 comes to an end, and discusses the results of two recent parliamentary by-elections. The Liberal Democrats have pulled off a big by-election victory in North Shropshire and Boris Johnson is facing numerous scandals surrounding him and his party’s conduct. Amidst this environment, is Boris Johnson going to face an imminent leadership challenge? And is the Conservative Party going into 2022 in a perilous electoral position? If a leadership contest is on the horizon, who is the frontrunner to win it at this stage?

A few weeks on from Keir Starmer’s wide-ranging Shadow Cabinet reshuffle, Sam and Chern also unpack the appointments there and discuss whether Labour is in a favourable position heading into 2022. Who were the biggest appointments in the new Shadow Cabinet and what do they mean for Labour’s short-term future? Should Labour be disappointed with recent by-election results? Will the Labour polling leads carry into 2022, and is the party better positioned than at the start of 2021 to form the next Government? All these questions and more answered in this week’s episode.

This week’s episode looks to wrap up some of the big stories from across Europe in the last few weeks, including Sweden’s first female Prime Minister, Katrin Jakobsdottir’s return to the Icelandic premiership and Olaf Scholz’s new German government. Magdalena Andersson is back as Swedish Prime Minister for the second time in two weeks, leading a minority government – will this government be stable enough to last 10 months until the next election? What will be the main differences between this and the Löfven government? And in Iceland, why did Jakobsdottir manage to keep her role as Prime Minister despite her party’s losses in the election?

As Angela Merkel’s 16 year tenure as German Chancellor comes to an end, Sam and Chern take a look at the incoming Scholz SPD-FDP-Green government and how this coalition came about. Is it a surprise that the government was formed so quickly? Which party emerged as the big winner in terms of Cabinet portfolios, and are there any clear disagreements potentially on the horizon? Will Christian Lindner and Robert Habeck come into conflict over climate spending, and do their respective huge portfolios set this government up for spending disagreements? All these questions and more answered in this week’s episode.

This week's episode looks at the major parties and players who took part in the first round of the Chilean presidential election last week and their legislative elections. Gabriel Boric and Jose Antonio Kast will be going head to head in December in the presidential run-off, as the two traditional left and right blocs, including the party of incumbent President Sebastian Pinera, fall behind and fail to make the final two – this week’s discussion assesses the changing political landscape in Chile and what the run-off might look like in a month’s time.

As the campaign recommences ahead of the presidential second round, Sam and Chern take a look at the political scene in Chile and why the population may have turned to the far-right and far-left in the search for solutions to their economic and political problems. Why did the New Social Pact fail to capitalise on Pinera and the governing coalition’s litany of problems? What provoked the rise of Kast and the far-right so suddenly throughout this campaign? Is Garbiel Boric or Jose Antonio Kast better positioned to pick up the voters of the more moderate groupings in the second round? What has been the impact of the Pinochet legacy on this campaign? All these questions and more answered in this week’s podcast.

This week's episode looks back at the results of two elections held last weekend – Argentina’s legislative midterms and Bulgaria’s third General Election this year. In Argentina, the ruling Frente de Todos coalition had a disappointing night, losing quorum in the Senate and seeing a reduction in their plurality in the Chamber. How will Alberto Fernandez and Christina de Kirchner react to these results? Are Juntos por el Cambio now favourites to win the presidential election in 2023? What will the impact on policymaking be for the next two years? With the rise of Javier Milei’s far-right party and the surge of the Trotskyist left, is Argentina’s party system fragmenting?

In Bulgaria, after their third election this year, won by yet another new political party, the We Continue the Change bloc look set to have the numbers to form a government – do their allies share that will? Will Kiril Petkov and Asen Vasilev be able to break the political deadlock and put together a governing coalition? Why did Slavi Trifonov’s party lose so much of its support so quickly? All these questions, and more, answered in this week's podcast.

This week's episode looks ahead to this weekend’s Argentinian midterm elections, previewing the dynamics of the race and the main two coalitions seeking to control of the National Congress. Alberto Fernandez’s Frente de Todos coalition is potentially facing a difficult polling day whilst Christina Fernandez de Kirchner remains critical in the wings – this week’s discussion dissects this relationship and who holds the strings in the Government.

As Junto por el Cambio eyes up control of the National Congress, Sam and Chern take a look at how these midterms will function and whether the Opposition has the political energy to upset the ruling coalition. Are Argentinian primaries usually a strong indication of party support for the midterms? What is Kirchnerism, and is it at odds with more traditional Peronist values? Is Frente de Todos irreparably fractured over economic policy? How would a divided Government affect policy delivery? All these questions and more answered in this week’s podcast.

This week’s episode assesses recent election results in both Japan and the US, looking back at Japan’s General Election and the off-year elections in Virginia and New Jersey. Fumio Kishida’s Liberal Democratic Party has retained a majority in the Diet in a bad night for the Opposition. Has Kishida solidified his place within the LDP? Can the Japanese opposition win under different party banners? Is the Innovation Party a long-term threat on the right of Japanese politics? Will next year’s Upper House elections be competitive?

With Joe Biden’s first electoral test as President around the corner, Sam and Chern look at the state of the race in Virginia and New Jersey where Democrats are defending control of the Governor’s Office in both states. Former Governor Terry McAuliffe is eyeing up a return to the office in a very tight race, and Phil Murphy is looking for a second term. Why are these races in seemingly blue states looking to be quite close? Why do Virginia and New Jersey hold their gubernatorial elections in off-years? Is Terry McAuliffe not an effective candidate for the Democrats within Virginia? Is Trump playing a role in these Republican challenges? All these questions and more answered in this week’s episode.

This week’s episode looks at Justin Trudeau’s new Cabinet in Canada following their September election and looks ahead to next week’s gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey. The new Liberal minority Government in Canada now has a full Cabinet, including numerous big changes and promotions for figures likely to be in the conversation as a future leader when Trudeau steps down? Was this a surprisingly bold reshuffle after failing to win a majority? Will it last a full term? Do we have any clues about Trudeau’s policy priorities from these appointments?

With Joe Biden’s first electoral test as President around the corner, Sam and Chern look at the state of the race in Virginia and New Jersey where Democrats are defending control of the Governor’s Office in both states. Former Governor Terry McAuliffe is eyeing up a return to the office in a very tight race, and Phil Murphy is looking for a second term. Why are these races in seemingly blue states looking to be quite close? Why do Virginia and New Jersey hold their gubernatorial elections in off-years? Is Terry McAuliffe not an effective candidate for the Democrats within Virginia? Is Trump playing a role in these Republican challenges? All these questions and more answered in this week’s episode.